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Texas Roadhouse
(NASDAQ:TXRH)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$180.00
▼(-11.45% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:09/07/26
The score is primarily supported by strong financial performance (scaling revenue, improved leverage, and strong TTM cash generation). This is meaningfully offset by weak near-term technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD and oversold momentum). Valuation is somewhat elevated at ~30x earnings despite a moderate dividend yield, while the latest corporate event backdrop is positive on sales/expansion and reaffirmed outlook but acknowledges ongoing cost-driven margin pressure.
Positive Factors
Strong comparable sales and unit expansion
Revenue and comparable-sales growth, plus planned store additions, indicate sustained demand and a scalable expansion engine. Continued 5%-6% store-week growth can broaden the earnings base, while positive comps support productivity across the existing restaurant portfolio.
Negative Factors
Commodity and wage inflation pressure margins
Commodity and wage inflation reduced restaurant margins by around 50-66 basis points, showing that food and labor cost escalation is already absorbing part of sales gains. If persistent, this pressure can constrain earnings growth and the returns from new units.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong comparable sales and unit expansion
Revenue and comparable-sales growth, plus planned store additions, indicate sustained demand and a scalable expansion engine. Continued 5%-6% store-week growth can broaden the earnings base, while positive comps support productivity across the existing restaurant portfolio.
Read all positive factors
Texas Roadhouse Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Restaurant Count
Shows the total number of Texas Roadhouse locations, indicating the company’s expansion strategy and market penetration.
Shows the total number of Texas Roadhouse locations, indicating the company’s expansion strategy and market penetration.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTexas Roadhouse (TXRH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.90B
Dividend Yield1.78%
Average Volume (3M)819.19K
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.3
Beta (1Y)0.52
Revenue Growth9.89%
EPS Growth-4.85%
CountryUS
Employees101,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.26
Shares Outstanding65,640,920
10 Day Avg. Volume1,201,434
30 Day Avg. Volume819,188
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-4.57
Price to Book (P/B)7.60
Price to Sales (P/S)1.89
P/FCF Ratio32.46
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$219.94Price Target Upside8.20% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)6.6
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.54B
Texas Roadhouse Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Texas Roadhouse, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, is actively engaged in the casual dining sector, managing restaurants both within the United States and on a global scale. The company's portfolio encompasses establishments operating under ...
How the Company Makes Money
Texas Roadhouse makes money primarily by selling food and beverages to guests at its restaurants. Revenue is driven by customer traffic and average check size, which includes entrées, appetizers, desserts, and beverage alcohol sales where permitte...
Texas Roadhouse Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong operational and financial momentum: double‑digit revenue growth (12.8%), healthy comparable sales (+7.1%) driven by traffic (+4.5%), EPS growth (+9.6%), improved labor productivity and robust cash flow. Management also narrowed commodity guidance and highlighted successful tech and to‑go execution and international/franchise expansion. Offsets include meaningful commodity and beef cost pressure (COGS up 122 bps), a modest decline in restaurant margin percentage, negative mix from to‑go and alcohol, and higher G&A/depreciation expense. Overall, positives (top‑line growth, margin dollar expansion, cash generation, productivity gains and tech progress) outweigh the manageable cost and mix headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Revenue exceeded $1.6 billion for the quarter with revenue growth of 12.8% year-over-year, driven by a 6.8% increase in average weekly sales and a 5.7% increase in store weeks.
Negative Updates
Commodity Inflation and COGS Pressure
Food & beverage costs were 35.3% of sales in Q1, up 122 basis points year-over-year, primarily driven by 6.2% commodity inflation; management still expects Q2 to be the peak for commodity inflation (estimated ~7%–8% in Q2) before easing in the back half, leaving near-term cost pressure.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Revenue exceeded $1.6 billion for the quarter with revenue growth of 12.8% year-over-year, driven by a 6.8% increase in average weekly sales and a 5.7% increase in store weeks.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management updated 2026 guidance: full‑year commodity inflation was reduced to 6.0%–7.0% (Q1 actual 6.2%; Q2 expected to peak around 7%–8% and be at or below the bottom end in H2), wage and other labor inflation remains 3%–4%, and capital expenditures are reiterated at approximately $400 million. They expect roughly 35 company‑owned openings in 2026 (Q1 opened 4; up to 9 openings across all brands in Q2 with openings weighted to the back half), franchise partners to add ~3 domestic Jaggers locations and up to 6 international Texas Roadhouse openings for the year, and noted Q1 cash of $215 million and cash flow from operations of $259 million (partially offset by ~$158 million of capex/dividends/repurchases and $72 million for acquisition of 5 California franchise restaurants). Additional guidance items: full‑year effective tax rate 14%–15%, total G&A dollars to increase low double‑digits, depreciation dollars to increase low teens, and management highlighted improved labor productivity (labor hours grew at ~35% of comparable traffic in Q1) with expectation of continued margin‑dollar leverage if traffic and pricing trends persist.Texas Roadhouse Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.23B | 5.88B | 5.37B | 4.63B | 4.01B | 3.46B |
| Gross Profit | 953.33M | 729.92M | 947.26M | 735.08M | 653.63M | 606.50M |
| EBITDA | 765.83M | 687.40M | 695.90M | 507.47M | 459.03M | 424.69M |
| Net Income | 413.17M | 405.55M | 433.59M | 304.88M | 269.82M | 245.29M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.67B | 3.55B | 3.19B | 2.79B | 2.53B | 2.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 202.43M | 134.71M | 245.22M | 104.25M | 173.86M | 335.64M |
| Total Debt | 1.09B | 974.02M | 854.47M | 770.89M | 753.36M | 744.84M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.09B | 2.07B | 1.82B | 1.64B | 1.50B | 1.44B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.56B | 1.46B | 1.36B | 1.14B | 1.01B | 1.06B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 406.38M | 342.07M | 399.29M | 217.95M | 265.60M | 268.13M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 803.31M | 730.07M | 753.63M | 564.98M | 511.73M | 468.83M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -465.27M | -480.52M | -336.90M | -367.17M | -263.73M | -195.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -312.42M | -360.07M | -275.75M | -267.43M | -409.77M | -301.23M |
Texas Roadhouse Technical Analysis
Negative
203.28
Price Trends
194.05
Negative
185.14
Negative
178.54
Negative
Market Momentum
-8.84
Positive
20.49
Positive
5.83
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TXRH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 203.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 181.64, above the 50-day MA of 194.05, and above the 200-day MA of 178.54, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -8.84 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 20.49 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.83 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TXRH.
Texas Roadhouse Risk Analysis
Texas Roadhouse disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Texas Roadhouse reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Texas Roadhouse Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $5.13B | 27.26 | 38.83% | 1.12% | 5.66% | 14.01% | |
71 Outperform | $24.25B | 20.44 | 56.01% | 2.86% | 9.39% | 17.16% | |
68 Neutral | $10.90B | 26.33 | 27.56% | 1.78% | 9.89% | -4.85% | |
64 Neutral | $8.64B | 18.89 | 123.85% | 4.81% | 7.86% | 29.85% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $1.31B | 31.54 | 10.97% | 1.95% | 3.54% | 56.84% | |
58 Neutral | $732.06M | 26.72 | 7.35% | 1.75% | -2.05% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TXRH
Texas Roadhouse
164.84
4.50
2.81%
BJRI
BJ's Restaurants
61.54
31.53
105.06%
EAT
Brinker International
210.80
77.77
58.46%
DRI
Darden Restaurants
213.69
32.42
17.88%
CAKE
Cheesecake Factory
104.41
51.08
95.80%
BLMN
Bloomin' Brands
8.55
1.42
19.92%
Texas Roadhouse Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Texas Roadhouse Reports Strong Revenue Growth, Reaffirms 2026 Outlook
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
Texas Roadhouse reported that for the 13 and 26 weeks ended June 30, 2026, total revenue rose 11.1% and 11.9% year over year, respectively, driven by comparable restaurant sales growth of 6.2% for the quarter and 6.7% year to date, as well as mid-...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.