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CAVA Group, Inc.
(NYSE:CAVA)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$62.00
▼(-10.52% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/18/26
The score reflects solid underlying business momentum and improving fundamentals (strong multi-year growth, positive profitability, and strengthening operating cash flow), reinforced by a positive earnings update and expansion guidance. These positives are tempered by a clearly bearish technical setup (price well below key moving averages) and a stretched valuation (very high P/E with no dividend support), which increase downside sensitivity if margins or comps cool.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue and demand growth
CAVA is demonstrating broad-based demand strength, with rapid revenue growth supported by both restaurant expansion and healthy comparable sales. Traffic gains are especially important because they indicate increasing guest frequency, helping make recent growth more durable than growth driven solely by pricing or new units.
Negative Factors
Margin normalization and cost pressure
Profitability has remained positive but has normalized materially from the unusually strong 2024 level. Lower margins reduce the earnings benefit of revenue growth and leave results more sensitive to food, labor, delivery, and investment costs, making margin recovery important to sustaining earnings growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong revenue and demand growth
CAVA is demonstrating broad-based demand strength, with rapid revenue growth supported by both restaurant expansion and healthy comparable sales. Traffic gains are especially important because they indicate increasing guest frequency, helping make recent growth more durable than growth driven solely by pricing or new units.
Read all positive factors
CAVA Group, Inc. Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Restaurant Count
Indicates the total number of restaurant locations, reflecting the company’s expansion strategy and market penetration. A growing count suggests potential revenue growth and brand presence.
Indicates the total number of restaurant locations, reflecting the company’s expansion strategy and market penetration. A growing count suggests potential revenue growth and brand presence.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.42B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.63M
Price to Earnings (P/E)96.1
Beta (1Y)1.57
Revenue Growth26.79%
EPS Growth-53.45%
CountryUS
Employees13,480
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.57
Shares Outstanding116,806,200
10 Day Avg. Volume2,853,716
30 Day Avg. Volume3,633,700
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.11
Price to Book (P/B)8.92
Price to Sales (P/S)5.90
P/FCF Ratio266.17
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.34
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.28
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit31.15
Enterprise Value/Ebitda50.81
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$87.95Price Target Upside26.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering22
EPS Forecast (FY)0.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.50B
CAVA Group, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CAVA Group, Inc. is a company that oversees and runs a chain of Mediterranean restaurants. Their culinary offerings encompass a range of salads, savory dips, spreads, various toppings, and distinctive dressings. Beyond its dining establishments, t...
How the Company Makes Money
CAVA primarily makes money by selling food and beverages to customers through its restaurant network. The company’s core revenue stream is restaurant sales generated at company-owned CAVA locations, including in-store transactions and digital orde...
CAVA Group, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 11, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong top-line growth, robust same-restaurant sales and traffic, compelling new-unit productivity, improving profitability in dollar terms, solid liquidity and cash flow, and early success from menu innovation and loyalty—demonstrating clear operational momentum. Near-term headwinds include modest margin pressure from rising food and labor costs, higher delivery mix, incremental preopening and G&A investments, and conservative guidance that factors in temporary sales impacts from industry food-safety headlines. Overall, the positives—particularly strong revenue growth, EBITDA expansion, cash position, and unit economics—substantially outweigh the manageable near-term cost pressures and industry noise, supporting confidence in the company’s long-term outlook.Positive Updates
Robust Revenue Growth
Revenue grew 31.3% year-over-year to $365.4 million in Q2 2026, driven by expansion and comp strength.
Negative Updates
Rising Food and Packaging Costs
Food, beverage, and packaging costs were 30.0% of revenue, up 50 basis points year-over-year; company expects further increases for the remainder of the year due to fuel surcharges and the pre-marinated chicken rollout.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Robust Revenue Growth
Revenue grew 31.3% year-over-year to $365.4 million in Q2 2026, driven by expansion and comp strength.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
CAVA reiterated full‑year 2026 guidance calling for 75–77 net new restaurants, same‑restaurant sales of 4.5%–6.5%, CAVA restaurant‑level profit margin of 23.7%–24.3%, preopening costs of $22.0–$22.5M and adjusted EBITDA (including preopening burden) of $181–$191M, while expecting equity‑based compensation of $22–$24M and an effective tax rate of 23%–28%; management noted the outlook prudently incorporates recent Cyclospora‑related pressure plus fuel surcharges and the partial rollout of pre‑marinated chicken and embeds continued labor investments. For context, Q2 revenue was $365.4M (+31.3% y/y) with same‑restaurant sales +9% (traffic +5.3%), adjusted EBITDA $54.7M (+30%), net income $23.0M (diluted EPS $0.19), restaurant‑level profit $93.8M (25.7% of revenue), systemwide AUV $3.1M, 17 net openings in Q2 bringing the fleet to 476, $435.6M cash & investments with zero debt and a $150M undrawn revolver, cash from ops YTD $134.5M and YTD free cash flow $44.8M.CAVA Group, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.37B | 1.18B | 963.71M | 728.70M | 564.12M | 500.07M |
| Gross Profit | 277.00M | 216.81M | 241.81M | 180.35M | 97.98M | 82.15M |
| EBITDA | 169.83M | 144.46M | 121.31M | 78.86M | 27.95M | 11.98M |
| Net Income | 66.25M | 63.74M | 130.32M | 13.28M | -58.99M | -37.39M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.50B | 1.36B | 1.17B | 983.76M | 583.88M | 362.19M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 435.60M | 393.03M | 366.12M | 332.43M | 39.13M | 140.33M |
| Total Debt | 520.74M | 466.25M | 378.71M | 336.20M | 314.73M | 15.34M |
| Total Liabilities | 658.50M | 580.37M | 474.10M | 412.95M | 1.03B | 755.22M |
| Stockholders Equity | 841.28M | 779.66M | 695.57M | 570.80M | -448.50M | -393.02M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 49.02M | 26.14M | 52.90M | -41.70M | -98.28M | -53.02M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 220.47M | 184.84M | 161.03M | 97.10M | 6.04M | 3.39M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -193.17M | -273.04M | -108.13M | -138.81M | -104.16M | -56.31M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 5.29M | 5.00M | -19.20M | 335.01M | -3.08M | 143.15M |
CAVA Group, Inc. Technical Analysis
Negative
69.29
Price Trends
58.66
Negative
65.61
Negative
71.98
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.30
Negative
47.86
Neutral
63.56
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CAVA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 69.29 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 54.04, above the 50-day MA of 58.66, and below the 200-day MA of 71.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CAVA.
CAVA Group, Inc. Risk Analysis
CAVA Group, Inc. disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CAVA Group, Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CAVA Group, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $37.52B | 25.77 | 53.26% | ― | 7.31% | -4.37% | |
65 Neutral | $6.42B | 96.09 | 8.28% | ― | 26.79% | -53.45% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $2.90B | 69.03 | 7.55% | ― | 17.33% | 99.39% | |
53 Neutral | $347.06M | 21.59 | 2.95% | ― | 2.89% | -58.76% | |
53 Neutral | $1.21B | 92.36 | 3.21% | ― | -0.65% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
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CAVA Group, Inc. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
CAVA Group Authorizes $100 Million Share Repurchase Program
Positive
Sep 18, 2026
On September 17, 2026, CAVA Group, Inc.’s board of directors approved a share repurchase program authorizing the company to buy back up to $100 million of its outstanding common stock. The repurchases may be executed in the open market, thro...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
CAVA Group Adds Independent Retail Leader to Board
Positive
Aug 3, 2026
On July 29, 2026, CAVA Group, Inc. expanded its board of directors from eight to nine members and appointed Amiee Lynn Thomas, a seasoned retail executive, as a director. Thomas, currently Chief Retail Officer at Ulta Beauty with more than three d...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.