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Wingstop
(NASDAQ:WING)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$107.00
▼(-6.02% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/16/26
The score is driven primarily by strong operating performance and cash generation, tempered by elevated balance-sheet risk from deeply negative equity and recent margin/FCF momentum cooling. Technicals are a notable drag with the stock trading below key moving averages and a negative MACD. Valuation is reasonable (P/E ~23.8) with a modest dividend yield, while the earnings call adds a mixed signal: weakened same-store sales guidance but continued robust unit growth and shareholder returns.
Positive Factors
Franchised, recurring revenue model
The predominantly franchised model gives Wingstop recurring royalty exposure while limiting direct restaurant operating requirements. Franchisee-funded expansion can broaden the royalty base, allowing revenue and earnings power to grow as the brand adds locations over time.
Negative Factors
Domestic same-store sales pressure
Sustained declines in comparable sales would pressure franchisee economics and reduce the royalty growth generated by existing restaurants. The revised full-year outlook indicates that weaker customer demand is not confined to one reporting period, creating a material near-term operating headwind.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Franchised, recurring revenue model
The predominantly franchised model gives Wingstop recurring royalty exposure while limiting direct restaurant operating requirements. Franchisee-funded expansion can broaden the royalty base, allowing revenue and earnings power to grow as the brand adds locations over time.
Read all positive factors
Wingstop Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks revenue into parts like franchise royalties, company-owned store sales, and supply-chain income, showing which sources drive earnings. A larger share from steady franchise fees suggests predictable cash flow, while dependence on company-store sales increases exposure to store-level volatility and commodity costs.
Breaks revenue into parts like franchise royalties, company-owned store sales, and supply-chain income, showing which sources drive earnings. A larger share from steady franchise fees suggests predictable cash flow, while dependence on company-store sales increases exposure to store-level volatility and commodity costs.
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The Fly
The FlyWingstop (WING) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.70B
Dividend Yield1.21%
Average Volume (3M)1.19M
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.1
Beta (1Y)1.17
Revenue Growth7.61%
EPS Growth-29.71%
CountryUS
Employees1,367
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.23
Shares Outstanding27,242,546
10 Day Avg. Volume1,506,304
30 Day Avg. Volume1,185,048
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.61
Price to Book (P/B)-9.73
Price to Sales (P/S)10.28
P/FCF Ratio67.85
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$196.63Price Target Upside72.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)4.42
Revenue Forecast (FY)$764.96M
Wingstop Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Wingstop Inc., together with its affiliated companies, manages and licenses a network of restaurants known by the Wingstop brand. These establishments are recognized for their made-to-order offerings, including classic bone-in wings, boneless wing...
How the Company Makes Money
Wingstop primarily makes money through a franchised restaurant model. Key revenue streams include: (1) Royalties from franchisees, typically calculated as a percentage of franchise restaurant sales; this is a core, recurring revenue driver because...
Wingstop Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: strong underlying unit growth, margin and profitability improvements, successful early traction with Club Wingstop, and measurable operational gains from Smart Kitchen contrasted with a material same-store sales decline (7.5% in Q2) and near-term pressure concentrated in lower‑income, urban trade areas. Management emphasized targeted value messaging, loyalty and operational execution to stabilize comps while maintaining aggressive unit development and shareholder returns. Near-term trends and guidance were downgraded on comps, but cash flow, earnings growth, and development momentum support confidence in the long‑term strategy.Positive Updates
System-wide Sales Growth
System-wide sales grew 5.3% to approximately $1.4 billion in Q2 2026, driven by continued net new restaurant openings across the system.
Negative Updates
Same-Store Sales Decline
Company reported a significant same-store sales decline of 7.5% in Q2 2026 and updated domestic same-store sales guidance to a decline of 4%–6% for the full year, reflecting pressure on core guests.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
System-wide Sales Growth
System-wide sales grew 5.3% to approximately $1.4 billion in Q2 2026, driven by continued net new restaurant openings across the system.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company updated full‑year guidance and capital plans: domestic same‑store sales are now expected to decline 4%–6% for FY2026, while global unit growth is reiterated at 15%–16% (with Q4 the largest quarter of net openings); SG&A is guided to $140–143 million and stock‑based compensation to ~ $24 million. Management expects to close a ~$32 million acquisition of 13 restaurants in Q3 (adding ~ $7 million of revenue and ~$1 million of adjusted EBITDA for the remainder of 2026, net of royalties), said full‑year adjusted EBITDA can still imply double‑digit growth based on the guidance shape, raised the quarterly dividend from $0.30 to $0.33 per share, repurchased 374,000 shares for $78.5 million year‑to‑date and has ~ $313 million remaining on the buyback authorization, and reaffirmed the long‑term unit economics and scale opportunity toward a >10,000‑unit global footprint.Wingstop Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 720.72M | 696.85M | 625.81M | 460.06M | 357.52M | 282.50M |
| Gross Profit | 527.03M | 575.73M | 300.87M | 222.83M | 171.06M | 141.10M |
| EBITDA | 227.28M | 298.04M | 187.97M | 125.78M | 101.44M | 81.83M |
| Net Income | 116.41M | 174.27M | 108.72M | 70.17M | 52.95M | 42.66M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 657.99M | 693.41M | 716.25M | 377.82M | 424.19M | 249.20M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 127.45M | 196.57M | 315.91M | 90.22M | 184.50M | 48.58M |
| Total Debt | 1.27B | 1.27B | 1.27B | 732.51M | 716.43M | 471.84M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.43B | 1.43B | 1.39B | 835.19M | 815.05M | 558.73M |
| Stockholders Equity | -772.99M | -736.76M | -675.59M | -457.37M | -390.86M | -309.52M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 128.49M | 105.62M | 105.68M | 80.77M | 52.30M | 20.86M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 189.49M | 153.06M | 157.61M | 121.60M | 76.24M | 48.88M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -70.31M | -17.46M | -62.48M | -52.15M | -28.68M | -29.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -220.96M | -266.73M | 144.76M | -155.49M | 103.25M | -23.39M |
Wingstop Technical Analysis
Negative
113.85
Price Trends
116.38
Negative
132.48
Negative
178.42
Negative
Market Momentum
-5.03
Positive
41.26
Neutral
22.18
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WING, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 113.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 106.51, below the 50-day MA of 116.38, and below the 200-day MA of 178.42, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for WING.
Wingstop Risk Analysis
Wingstop disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Wingstop reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Wingstop Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $9.67B | 16.51 | -15.15% | 2.64% | 5.16% | 2.13% | |
70 Outperform | $428.80M | 11.95 | 11.68% | 15.42% | 4.40% | 39.48% | |
62 Neutral | $2.70B | 24.07 | -15.46% | 1.21% | 7.61% | -29.71% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
52 Neutral | $1.25B | 9.68 | 109.00% | 7.67% | -0.98% | -31.26% | |
47 Neutral | $258.06M | 7.87 | -3.65% | 5.73% | -20.21% | ― | |
47 Neutral | $643.62M | 24.80 | -6.17% | 9.16% | -5.65% | -64.96% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
WING
Wingstop
108.62
-141.05
-56.49%
DPZ
Domino's Pizza
301.81
-120.76
-28.58%
JACK
Jack In The Box
13.46
-6.31
-31.92%
PZZA
Papa John's International
20.33
-26.03
-56.14%
WEN
Wendy's
6.54
-2.07
-24.03%
LOCO
El Pollo LoCo
14.44
4.74
48.87%
Wingstop Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Wingstop Announces Leadership Change as Brand Officer Resigns
Neutral
Aug 25, 2026
On August 24, 2026, Wingstop Inc. announced that Donnie Upshaw, its Senior Vice President and Chief Brand and People Officer, has resigned effective September 10, 2026, to pursue another opportunity. The company stated that his departure is not re...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Wingstop Adds Independent Director to Strengthen Board Governance
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
On August 6, 2026, Wingstop Inc. expanded its Board of Directors from ten to eleven members and elected Jay Snowden as a Class II director, effective immediately, strengthening its governance structure. The Board determined Snowden is independent ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Wingstop Declares Dividend and Strengthens Legal Leadership
Positive
Jul 29, 2026
In the fiscal second quarter ended June 27, 2026, Wingstop Inc. reported system-wide sales of $1.4 billion, up 5.3% year on year, and total revenue of $185.6 million, a 6.4% increase from Q2 2025, driven by net new franchise openings and higher ad...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.