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Domino's Pizza
(NASDAQ:DPZ)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$317.00
▼(-9.41% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/15/26
DPZ scores as a moderate-quality setup: strong profitability and generally solid cash generation are meaningfully offset by structural balance-sheet risk (negative equity) and recent FCF pressure. Near-term fundamentals from the earnings call are constructive but tempered by softer same-store sales expectations and franchisee/consumer pressure, while technicals remain bearish with the stock trading below key moving averages.
Positive Factors
Franchise-led competitive position
Continued order growth and category share gains indicate durable customer demand and brand relevance. Combined with Domino’s franchised operating model, stronger system volumes can support recurring royalty income and reinforce the company’s position across delivery and carryout.
Negative Factors
Structural balance-sheet risk
Negative equity reduces financial flexibility and makes leverage signals inherently unfavorable even though operating performance is stable. A constrained capital structure can limit the company’s ability to absorb weaker trading conditions or fund growth without relying on continued cash generation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Franchise-led competitive position
Continued order growth and category share gains indicate durable customer demand and brand relevance. Combined with Domino’s franchised operating model, stronger system volumes can support recurring royalty income and reinforce the company’s position across delivery and carryout.
Read all positive factors
Domino's Pizza Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks revenue into business lines and regions—company-owned store sales, franchise fees and royalties, supply-chain or product sales, and geographic splits. Shows which parts of the business drive top-line growth, how concentrated revenue is by segment or region, and where currency moves or local demand swings could create risk or opportunity.
Breaks revenue into business lines and regions—company-owned store sales, franchise fees and royalties, supply-chain or product sales, and geographic splits. Shows which parts of the business drive top-line growth, how concentrated revenue is by segment or region, and where currency moves or local demand swings could create risk or opportunity.
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The Fly
The FlyDomino's Pizza (DPZ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.41B
Dividend Yield2.48%
Average Volume (3M)870.28K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.1
Beta (1Y)0.64
Revenue Growth4.50%
EPS Growth5.70%
CountryUS
Employees10,200
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)18.20
Shares Outstanding32,896,057
10 Day Avg. Volume1,099,379
30 Day Avg. Volume870,284
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio4.60
Price to Book (P/B)-3.67
Price to Sales (P/S)2.90
P/FCF Ratio21.33
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.53
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.15
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.86
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.58
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$359.22Price Target Upside2.66% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)19.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.19B
Domino's Pizza Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Domino's Pizza, Inc. operates as a leading international and domestic purveyor of pizza, managing its extensive operations through three distinct segments: U.S. Stores, International Franchise, and Supply Chain. The company is primarily recognized...
How the Company Makes Money
Domino’s makes money primarily through a franchise-driven model and, to a lesser extent, through sales from company-owned stores. Key revenue streams include: (1) Royalties and franchise fees: Domino’s collects ongoing royalty payments from franch...
Domino's Pizza Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 13, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 01, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive, supported by strong order count growth, market share gains, an 8.5% increase in operating income, continued store expansion, supply chain productivity, and confidence in the brand's long-term growth opportunities. However, management acknowledged meaningful near-term challenges from consumer pressure, lower items per order and average ticket, weaker same-store sales outlooks, reduced U.S. store development guidance, international pressure from DPE, and lower franchisee profitability. Overall, the positive operational performance and long-term outlook significantly outweighed the disclosed challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Order Growth and Market Share Gains
Underlying demand remained strong, with order count growth in both delivery and carryout. Domino's continued to gain share within the QSR pizza category, including among low-income consumers.
Negative Updates
Macroeconomic Pressure on Consumers
The macro environment continued to pressure consumers and is expected to remain an overhang through the balance of 2026. Management said the weaker consumer environment affected purchasing behavior.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Order Growth and Market Share Gains
Underlying demand remained strong, with order count growth in both delivery and carryout. Domino's continued to gain share within the QSR pizza category, including among low-income consumers.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026, excluding the impact of the 53rd week, Domino’s expects U.S. same-store sales to be up low single digits, towards the low end of that range; international same-store sales growth to be approximately flat; 125 to 150 net new stores in the U.S.; approximately 800 net new stores internationally; global retail sales growth in the low to mid single digits, with results anticipated finishing towards the midpoint of that range; and operating income growth in the mid single digits, excluding the impact of foreign currency, refranchising gains, and the gain on the sale of the corporate aircraft. The company continues to see a long term potential of 8.5 thousand-plus stores in the U.S., expects to return meaningful cash to shareholders in 2026 and beyond, and, with leverage currently 4.2x EBITDA, could operate below the low end of its targeted leverage range, of 4x; longer term, it continues to believe in 1% to 2% category growth and getting back to 3%-plus growth in the U.S., with store potential of 40 thousand in international markets.Domino's Pizza Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.07B | 4.94B | 4.71B | 4.48B | 4.54B | 4.36B |
| Gross Profit | 2.03B | 1.97B | 1.85B | 1.73B | 1.65B | 1.69B |
| EBITDA | 1.02B | 1.06B | 1.01B | 929.55M | 851.34M | 890.43M |
| Net Income | 609.38M | 601.70M | 584.17M | 519.12M | 452.26M | 510.47M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.77B | 1.80B | 1.74B | 1.67B | 1.60B | 1.67B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 229.03M | 433.99M | 186.13M | 114.10M | 60.36M | 148.16M |
| Total Debt | 5.12B | 5.23B | 5.20B | 5.21B | 5.25B | 5.29B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.72B | 5.70B | 5.70B | 5.75B | 5.79B | 5.88B |
| Stockholders Equity | -3.96B | -3.90B | -3.96B | -4.07B | -4.19B | -4.21B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 635.69M | 671.50M | 512.01M | 485.47M | 388.08M | 560.03M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 760.41M | 792.06M | 624.90M | 590.86M | 475.32M | 654.21M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -98.29M | -70.19M | -31.23M | -106.92M | -53.68M | -142.72M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -645.52M | -752.09M | -532.22M | -476.36M | -515.95M | -522.83M |
Domino's Pizza Technical Analysis
Neutral
349.91
Price Trends
317.47
Negative
318.09
Negative
342.38
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.07
Negative
52.77
Neutral
82.88
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DPZ, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 349.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 302.01, above the 50-day MA of 317.47, and above the 200-day MA of 342.38, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.88 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for DPZ.
Domino's Pizza Risk Analysis
Domino's Pizza disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Domino's Pizza reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Domino's Pizza Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $1.70B | 6.69 | 32.90% | 3.27% | 10.77% | 97.30% | |
68 Neutral | $41.27B | 18.88 | -30.35% | 1.96% | 10.28% | 56.85% | |
68 Neutral | $34.14B | 18.09 | 34.86% | 3.47% | 6.51% | 40.57% | |
64 Neutral | $10.41B | 17.10 | -15.48% | 2.48% | 4.50% | 5.70% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
52 Neutral | $1.24B | 9.52 | 109.00% | 7.80% | -0.98% | -31.26% | |
47 Neutral | $616.62M | 22.52 | -6.17% | 10.09% | -5.65% | -64.96% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
DPZ
Domino's Pizza
311.15
-101.68
-24.63%
ARCO
Arcos Dorados Holdings
8.09
1.12
16.00%
PZZA
Papa John's International
18.24
-32.71
-64.20%
WEN
Wendy's
6.28
-2.20
-25.92%
YUM
Yum! Brands
151.24
7.66
5.33%
QSR
Restaurant Brands International
74.15
9.06
13.92%
Domino's Pizza Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Domino’s Board Member Patricia Lopez Announces Retirement
Neutral
Oct 8, 2026
Domino’s Pizza, Inc. announced that Board member Patricia E. Lopez notified the company on October 2, 2026, of her decision to retire from its Board of Directors, effective October 7, 2026. The company stated her departure is for personal re...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Domino’s Pizza Bolsters Board with New Independent Directors
Positive
Jul 15, 2026
On July 14, 2026, Domino’s Pizza expanded its Board of Directors from eight to ten members by appointing Michael C. Creedon, Jr., CEO of Dollar Tree, and Anneliese Olson, a senior HP Inc. executive, as independent directors effective July 15...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.