Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

For Q4 2026, the company anticipates total revenues between $1.04 billion and $1.05 billion, effective commodity inflation of low single digits, net total labor inflation of low to mid-single digits, G&A of approximately $68 million, depreciation of $30 million, preopening expenses of $13 million to support 13 openings, adjusted net income margin of about 5.8% at the midpoint of the sales range provided, a tax rate of approximately 14% to 15%, and diluted weighted average shares outstanding of approximately 52.5 million; it remains on track to open as many as 26 new restaurants in 2026 and anticipates approximately $210 million in cash CapEx. For fiscal 2027, it expects to open as many as 27 new restaurants, with roughly 3/4 of those openings planned for the second half of the year, generate total revenue of approximately $4.425 billion, incur total inflation across its commodity basket, labor and other operating expenses in the low- to mid-single-digit range, achieve modest leverage from G&A, depreciation and pre-opening expenses of approximately 10 to 20 basis points, and deliver full year net income margin of 6.0% to 6.1%, assuming a tax rate of approximately 12%, diluted weighted average shares outstanding of approximately 52 million, and approximately $220 million in cash CapEx, including roughly as many as 5 Cheesecake Factories, 4 to 5 North Italias, 11 to 13 Flower Childs and 6 to 7 FRC restaurants; 3% as sort of a run rate is good to use for next year, and on a normalized trajectory, the company would be talking about a 3% or plus comp.