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Brinker International
(NYSE:EAT)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$246.00
▲(2.10% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/29/26
EAT scores well primarily on improved financial performance (material margin expansion and strong cash generation) and a notably upbeat earnings outlook with traffic-led comps and raised fiscal 2027 targets. The overall score is held back by high leverage on the balance sheet and mixed technical momentum (negative MACD despite the price trend staying above key moving averages). Valuation is reasonable at ~19x earnings, but there is no dividend yield support provided.
Positive Factors
Chili’s traffic-led market gains
Sustained traffic outperformance indicates Chili’s is gaining guests and market share through value, marketing, and operating improvements rather than relying only on price. Continued traffic-led comp growth supports durable revenue momentum and strengthens the brand’s competitive position.
Negative Factors
Elevated balance-sheet leverage
High leverage reduces financial flexibility even as operating performance improves. A debt-heavy capital structure can constrain investment and capital returns, while making the company more sensitive to weaker restaurant conditions, refinancing needs, or sustained pressure on cash generation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Chili’s traffic-led market gains
Sustained traffic outperformance indicates Chili’s is gaining guests and market share through value, marketing, and operating improvements rather than relying only on price. Continued traffic-led comp growth supports durable revenue momentum and strengthens the brand’s competitive position.
Read all positive factors
Brinker International Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Reveals profitability across various business segments, indicating which areas are driving earnings and where there might be challenges.
Reveals profitability across various business segments, indicating which areas are driving earnings and where there might be challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBrinker International (EAT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.81B
Dividend Yield4.81%
Average Volume (3M)1.55M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.3
Beta (1Y)0.63
Revenue Growth6.07%
EPS Growth16.71%
CountryUS
Employees83,840
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)11.62
Shares Outstanding41,542,700
10 Day Avg. Volume1,569,300
30 Day Avg. Volume1,549,377
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.51
Price to Book (P/B)16.69
Price to Sales (P/S)1.28
P/FCF Ratio13.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.23
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.83
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit36.72
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.37
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$267.65Price Target Upside11.09% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)13.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.31B
Brinker International Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Brinker International, Inc., in collaboration with its subsidiaries, is engaged in the creation, management, and licensing of casual dining establishments across both domestic and international markets. Its business operations are structured aroun...
How the Company Makes Money
Brinker International makes money primarily by generating restaurant sales from company-owned locations and by earning fees and other revenue from franchised restaurants. For company-operated restaurants (notably Chili’s and Maggiano’s), revenue i...
Brinker International Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2026
(Q1-2027)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 03, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive. Chili's delivered sustained double-digit same-store sales growth, industry-leading traffic gains, higher margins, strong earnings growth and raised fiscal 2027 targets. Management also highlighted progress in value, operations, reimages, new-unit development and capital returns. These strengths outweighed challenges from consumer pressure, negative mix, inflation, Maggiano's sales declines, early Chicken Parm adoption and more difficult comparisons ahead.Positive Updates
Strong Chili's Same-Store Sales and Traffic Growth
Q1 Chili's same-store sales increased 10.1%, including 6.4% traffic growth, 3.7% price and flat mix. The brand outperformed casual dining by 720 basis points, marked three consecutive years of double-digit comp growth, and delivered cumulative three-year comp growth of 52%.
Negative Updates
Maggiano's Same-Store Sales Decline
Maggiano's same-store sales declined 3.4% in Q1, driven by a 5.1% traffic decline and a 0.3% mix decline, partially offset by 2.0% price.
Read all updates
Q1-2027 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Chili's Same-Store Sales and Traffic Growth
Q1 Chili's same-store sales increased 10.1%, including 6.4% traffic growth, 3.7% price and flat mix. The brand outperformed casual dining by 720 basis points, marked three consecutive years of double-digit comp growth, and delivered cumulative three-year comp growth of 52%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Brinker expects Q2 to deliver a mid-single-digit comp, with Q2 off to a strong start with high mid-single-digit same-store sales growth, and for the back half of the year, two, three and four, expects mid-single-digit same-store sales with positive traffic; fiscal '27 annual revenues are expected in the range of $6.23 billion to $6.33 billion, adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $13.30 to $13.90, weighted average shares in the range of $42 million to $43 million and capital expenditures in the range of $265 million to $285 million, including approximately 2% increase in total revenues and $0.70 in incremental earnings per share from the 53rd operating week; restaurant-level margin improvement is expected to be about 70 to 90 basis points improvement year-over-year, with Q2 roughly flattish year-over-year, quarter 3 at 20 to 40 basis points and more upside in quarter 4, G&A is expected to be in the 4% to 4.1% range for the full year, labor inflation is expected to be in that 3% to 5%, closer to 3% all year, and Chili's expects to complete a total of 60 to 80 reimages during fiscal 2027, with each remodel in the $500,000 to $600,000 range and sales lift of approximately 3% to 5%; by fiscal 2029, the company is targeting 2% to 3% annual unit growth, supported by AUV growth from $3 million to $5 million.Brinker International Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.93B | 5.81B | 5.38B | 4.42B | 4.13B | 3.80B |
| Gross Profit | 295.00M | 1.08B | 982.40M | 627.30M | 500.10M | 499.20M |
| EBITDA | 875.70M | 840.10M | 719.70M | 400.70M | 314.20M | 325.70M |
| Net Income | 500.80M | 487.00M | 383.10M | 155.30M | 102.60M | 117.60M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.78B | 2.81B | 2.68B | 2.59B | 2.49B | 2.48B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 30.70M | 110.00M | 18.90M | 64.60M | 15.10M | 13.50M |
| Total Debt | 1.80B | 1.76B | 1.69B | 2.00B | 2.16B | 2.27B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.38B | 2.37B | 2.31B | 2.55B | 2.63B | 2.75B |
| Stockholders Equity | 399.90M | 443.70M | 370.90M | 39.40M | -144.30M | -268.10M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 601.00M | 557.50M | 413.70M | 223.00M | 71.40M | 101.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 837.70M | 789.40M | 679.00M | 421.90M | 256.30M | 252.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -263.60M | -231.00M | -263.40M | -192.20M | -174.20M | -234.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -577.00M | -467.30M | -461.30M | -180.20M | -80.50M | -28.40M |
Brinker International Technical Analysis
Positive
240.93
Price Trends
209.89
Positive
200.67
Positive
174.16
Positive
Market Momentum
0.05
Negative
62.48
Neutral
67.34
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EAT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 240.93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 197.26, above the 50-day MA of 209.89, and above the 200-day MA of 174.16, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EAT.
Brinker International Risk Analysis
Brinker International disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Brinker International reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Brinker International Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $8.81B | 18.26 | 122.98% | 4.81% | 6.07% | 16.71% | |
68 Neutral | $11.98B | 29.16 | 27.56% | 1.61% | 9.89% | -4.85% | |
64 Neutral | $5.61B | 25.26 | 43.03% | 1.04% | 7.87% | 30.46% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $7.49B | 59.54 | 13.05% | ― | 29.65% | 50.44% | |
60 Neutral | $3.02B | 71.71 | 7.55% | ― | 17.33% | 99.39% | |
59 Neutral | $4.05B | 34.98 | -15.19% | 0.82% | 6.90% | -30.48% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
EAT
Brinker International
212.18
103.52
95.27%
TXRH
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182.52
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13.44%
CAKE
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112.64
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130.31%
SHAK
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70.48
-26.03
-26.97%
WING
Wingstop
149.73
-65.17
-30.33%
BROS
Dutch Bros Inc
42.87
-12.67
-22.81%
Brinker International Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Brinker International Outlines Long-Term Growth Strategy Targets
Positive
Sep 17, 2026
On September 17, 2026, Brinker International hosted its 2026 Investor Day at its Dallas headquarters, where executives highlighted the transformation of Chili’s over the past four years into a stronger, more guest-focused and shareholder-ori...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Brinker International Expands Share Buybacks, Boosts Growth Momentum
Positive
Aug 12, 2026
Brinker International reported fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2026 results on August 12, 2026, highlighting a fifth consecutive year of same-store sales growth at Chili’s, amounting to a 71% cumulative increase. Fiscal 2026 fourth-quart...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.