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Brinker International
(NYSE:EAT)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$263.00
▲(9.16% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is driven by strong technical momentum and a constructive earnings outlook (continued comp/traffic strength at Chili’s plus buybacks and debt actions). These positives are partially offset by meaningful balance-sheet leverage risk and a valuation that is reasonable but not clearly cheap (P/E 21.25, no dividend yield provided).
Positive Factors
Chili's Brand Momentum
Sustained traffic and comp gains indicate Chili’s has improved relevance, value positioning and execution rather than relying only on pricing. This multi-year trend can support repeat visits, operating leverage and durable growth across dining occasions.
Negative Factors
High Financial Leverage
Debt of about $1.61B versus $0.44B of equity leaves Brinker financially sensitive to weaker restaurant demand, refinancing costs and execution setbacks. Although equity has recovered and notes were redeemed, leverage can constrain reinvestment and amplify downside.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Chili's Brand Momentum
Sustained traffic and comp gains indicate Chili’s has improved relevance, value positioning and execution rather than relying only on pricing. This multi-year trend can support repeat visits, operating leverage and durable growth across dining occasions.
Read all positive factors
Brinker International Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Reveals profitability across various business segments, indicating which areas are driving earnings and where there might be challenges.
Reveals profitability across various business segments, indicating which areas are driving earnings and where there might be challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBrinker International (EAT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.77B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.06M
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.7
Beta (1Y)0.65
Revenue Growth7.86%
EPS Growth29.85%
CountryUS
Employees83,840
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)11.16
Shares Outstanding41,765,010
10 Day Avg. Volume799,113
30 Day Avg. Volume1,059,338
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.51
Price to Book (P/B)16.69
Price to Sales (P/S)1.28
P/FCF Ratio13.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$267.63Price Target Upside11.08% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)13.22
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.27B
Brinker International Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Brinker International, Inc., in collaboration with its subsidiaries, is engaged in the creation, management, and licensing of casual dining establishments across both domestic and international markets. Its business operations are structured aroun...
How the Company Makes Money
Brinker primarily makes money by selling food and beverages through its restaurant system. Its core revenue stream is company-owned restaurant sales, generated from guest transactions across dine-in and off-premise occasions (including takeout and...
Brinker International Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong top-line momentum, successful product launches (notably the Big Crispy), meaningful EPS and EBITDA growth, active share repurchases and debt reduction, and ongoing operational improvements. Headwinds are present — primarily modest commodity inflation, elevated operating costs, and a slower-than-expected turnaround at Maggiano's — but management has baked conservative inflation assumptions into guidance and highlighted continued traffic and marketing strength. On balance, the positives (sustained same-store-sales and traffic gains, product and marketing success, capital returns, and debt action) outweigh the listed challenges.Positive Updates
Same-Store Sales and Traffic Momentum
Chili's delivered sustained comp growth: consolidated comp sales +5% in Q4 and Chili's comps +5.6% (driven by price +4.3% and traffic +1.5%). Company completed five consecutive years of same-store-sales growth and two consecutive years of traffic gains; July/August acceleration noted versus Q4.
Negative Updates
Maggiano's Underperformance and Slow Turnaround
Maggiano's comps declined -2.5% in Q4 with traffic -5.3%; turnaround described as mixed and slower than planned. Maggiano's represents ~8% of sales and guidance assumes flat revenues and profits for FY27, indicating limited near-term contribution.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Same-Store Sales and Traffic Momentum
Chili's delivered sustained comp growth: consolidated comp sales +5% in Q4 and Chili's comps +5.6% (driven by price +4.3% and traffic +1.5%). Company completed five consecutive years of same-store-sales growth and two consecutive years of traffic gains; July/August acceleration noted versus Q4.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Brinker guided fiscal 2027 revenues of $6.15–$6.27 billion and adjusted diluted EPS of $12.60–$13.40 (42–43 million weighted average shares), with capital expenditures of $265–$285 million, 3 net new company‑owned openings and 60–80 reimages planned in FY27 (moving to ~10% of the fleet annually in FY28); the guidance includes a 53rd operating week (estimated to add ~2% to revenue and ~$0.70 to EPS) and the planned acquisition of 12 franchised Chili’s restaurants (≈$30M incremental revenue; roughly neutral to EPS). Management modeled mid‑single‑digit same‑store sales with positive traffic at Chili’s, price increases a little over 3%, flattish mix, planned commodity and wage inflation in the low single digits (commodity cadence modeled ~4% Q1, 3% Q2, 2% Q3, 1% Q4), a tax rate of ~19%, continued share repurchases (board increased authorization to $750M; ~$100M repurchased in Q4 and ~ $400M for the year), and financial flexibility after redeeming $350M of 8.25% notes funded from a $1B revolver.Brinker International Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
44
Neutral
Cash Flow
73
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.81B | 5.38B | 4.42B | 4.13B | 3.80B |
| Gross Profit | 1.08B | 982.40M | 627.30M | 500.10M | 499.20M |
| EBITDA | 840.10M | 719.70M | 400.70M | 314.20M | 325.70M |
| Net Income | 487.00M | 383.10M | 155.30M | 102.60M | 117.60M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.81B | 2.68B | 2.59B | 2.49B | 2.48B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 110.00M | 18.90M | 64.60M | 15.10M | 13.50M |
| Total Debt | 1.76B | 1.69B | 2.00B | 2.16B | 2.27B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.37B | 2.31B | 2.55B | 2.63B | 2.75B |
| Stockholders Equity | 443.70M | 370.90M | 39.40M | -144.30M | -268.10M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 557.50M | 413.70M | 223.00M | 71.40M | 101.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 789.40M | 679.00M | 421.90M | 256.30M | 252.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -231.00M | -263.40M | -192.20M | -174.20M | -234.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -467.30M | -461.30M | -180.20M | -80.50M | -28.40M |
Brinker International Technical Analysis
Positive
240.93
Price Trends
207.47
Positive
176.43
Positive
162.62
Positive
Market Momentum
7.46
Positive
53.41
Neutral
19.66
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EAT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 240.93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 235.67, above the 50-day MA of 207.47, and above the 200-day MA of 162.62, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 7.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.66 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EAT.
Brinker International Risk Analysis
Brinker International disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Brinker International reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Brinker International Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $12.57B | 30.49 | 27.56% | 1.48% | 9.89% | -4.85% | |
72 Outperform | $9.77B | 20.70 | 123.85% | ― | 7.86% | 29.85% | |
65 Neutral | $5.39B | 28.35 | 38.83% | 1.35% | 5.66% | 14.01% | |
65 Neutral | $8.09B | 66.85 | 13.05% | ― | 29.65% | 50.44% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $2.89B | 69.09 | 7.55% | ― | 17.33% | 99.39% | |
60 Neutral | $2.99B | 26.75 | -15.46% | 0.89% | 7.61% | -29.71% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
EAT
Brinker International
231.00
71.12
44.48%
TXRH
Texas Roadhouse
190.88
24.28
14.58%
CAKE
Cheesecake Factory
108.57
48.59
81.00%
SHAK
Shake Shack
67.90
-33.97
-33.35%
WING
Wingstop
113.16
-193.20
-63.06%
BROS
Dutch Bros Inc
48.13
-23.30
-32.62%
Brinker International Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Brinker International Expands Share Buybacks, Boosts Growth Momentum
Positive
Aug 12, 2026
Brinker International reported fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2026 results on August 12, 2026, highlighting a fifth consecutive year of same-store sales growth at Chili’s, amounting to a 71% cumulative increase. Fiscal 2026 fourth-quart...
Business Operations and Strategy
Brinker International Announces Early Redemption of Senior Notes
Positive
Jun 17, 2026
On June 16, 2026, Brinker International, Inc. announced it has issued a notice of redemption for all of its outstanding 8.250% Senior Notes due July 15, 2030, effectively moving to retire this higher-cost debt earlier than scheduled. The redemptio...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.