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Hanover Insurance (THG)
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Hanover Insurance (THG) AI Stock Analysis

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THG

Hanover Insurance

(NYSE:THG)

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Outperform 75 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$191.00
▲(11.77% Upside)
Hanover Insurance's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are key strengths, supported by positive earnings call insights. However, technical indicators suggest a lack of short-term momentum, which slightly tempers the overall score. The company's strategic initiatives and robust investment income provide a positive long-term outlook.
Positive Factors
Strong Investment Income
The significant increase in investment income enhances financial stability and supports long-term growth, providing a buffer against underwriting volatility.
Technological Advancements
Investing in technology improves operational efficiency and agent satisfaction, positioning the company for sustained competitive advantage and market leadership.
Revenue Growth in Core Segments
Strong growth in core segments indicates effective strategy execution and market positioning, ensuring continued revenue expansion and profitability.
Negative Factors
Middle Market Challenges
Nonrenewals in the middle market highlight competitive pressures and could impact future growth if not addressed, affecting market share and revenue.
Expense Ratio Concerns
Higher expense ratios can erode profitability margins, indicating a need for cost management improvements to maintain long-term financial health.
Commercial Auto Segment Issues
Ongoing challenges in the commercial auto segment may lead to higher loss ratios, impacting overall profitability and requiring strategic adjustments.

Hanover Insurance (THG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Hanover Insurance Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHanover Insurance Group (THG) is a leading provider of property and casualty insurance products and services in the United States. The company operates primarily through its subsidiaries, offering a diverse range of insurance solutions tailored for personal, commercial, and specialty markets. Its core products include automobile, homeowners, workers' compensation, and commercial property insurance, as well as innovative coverage options that cater to specific industries and customer needs.
How the Company Makes MoneyHanover Insurance generates revenue primarily through the underwriting of insurance policies. The company collects premiums from policyholders, which serve as the main source of income. Additionally, THG invests the premiums it collects in various financial instruments, generating investment income. Key revenue streams include commercial lines, personal lines, and specialty insurance products. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with independent agents and brokers, which help expand its market reach and customer base. Furthermore, effective risk management practices and a focus on underwriting discipline contribute to profitability by minimizing claims costs.

Hanover Insurance Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong overall performance with exceptional third quarter results and significant growth in Personal Lines, Core Commercial, and Specialty Lines. However, challenges remain in the middle market segment, expense ratio management, and commercial auto. Despite these issues, the company's strategic focus and strong investment income contribute to a positive outlook.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Exceptional Third Quarter Results
Operating return on equity exceeded 21%, driven by strong net investment income and a quiet catastrophe quarter. The company reported operating earnings per share of $5.09 and a combined ratio of 91.1%, marking several third quarter records.
Strong Personal Lines Performance
Personal Lines showed improved profitability with an accident year ex-CAT combined ratio of 85.8%, a 3.4-point improvement from the prior year. Personal Lines grew 3.6% with new business momentum accelerating, achieving a renewal price increase of 10.5%.
Core Commercial and Specialty Lines Growth
Core Commercial delivered near double-digit pricing, with small commercial business gaining upward momentum. Specialty lines saw net written premiums grow at a high single-digit pace, including strong broad-based growth in marine, healthcare, and E&S.
Investment Income Surge
Net investment income increased 27.5% from the prior year quarter to $117 million, reflecting growth in asset base, improved partnership results, and higher reinvestment yields.
Negative Updates
Middle Market Nonrenewals
Middle market growth was affected by a handful of large account nonrenewals and lost accounts, highlighting heightened competition in the larger account property space.
Expense Ratio Concerns
The expense ratio of 31.3% was slightly above expectations, driven by higher variable agency compensation. Although the company is committed to long-term improvement, current results reflect challenges in maintaining the expense ratio.
Commercial Auto Challenges
Core Commercial's accident year loss ratio was impacted by increased reserves in commercial auto due to increased severity, suggesting ongoing challenges in this segment.
Company Guidance
During the Hanover Insurance Group's third quarter earnings call for fiscal year 2025, the company provided guidance reflecting strong performance and strategic positioning. The firm achieved an operating return on equity of over 21%, supported by robust net investment income and a quiet catastrophe quarter. The combined ratio was reported at 91.1%, with catastrophe losses accounting for only 3 points, which was 3.8 points below assumptions. Personal Lines showcased a 3.6% growth, with renewal price increases of 10.5%, while Specialty lines experienced a high single-digit pace in net written premiums. Core Commercial pricing saw near double-digit growth, highlighting a strategic balance between growth and portfolio quality. The company also emphasized advancements in technology and innovation, including AI-powered underwriting tools, to enhance operational efficiency and agent satisfaction. Overall, the call highlighted Hanover's commitment to leveraging its diversified portfolio, disciplined execution, and strategic investments to sustain long-term growth and profitability.

Hanover Insurance Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Hanover Insurance exhibits solid financial performance with consistent revenue growth and improved profitability margins. The balance sheet shows a stable leverage position and strong equity returns, while cash flow metrics indicate efficient cash generation and management. The company is well-positioned in the insurance industry, with opportunities for further operational improvements.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Hanover Insurance has shown consistent revenue growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 1.84%. The gross profit margin improved to 22.03% in TTM, indicating better cost management. The net profit margin also increased to 8.70%, reflecting enhanced profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins, while improved, remain moderate at 11.50% and 11.46%, respectively, suggesting room for operational efficiency improvements.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has decreased to 0.24 in TTM, indicating a stable leverage position. Return on equity improved to 18.54%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 20.44%, suggesting a solid equity base relative to total assets. Overall, the balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with manageable debt levels.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Hanover Insurance's cash flow performance is strong, with a free cash flow growth rate of 8.70% in TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 1.54, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 1, demonstrating effective conversion of earnings into cash flow. The cash flow metrics highlight strong liquidity and cash management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue6.49B6.22B5.96B5.43B5.16B4.82B
Gross Profit1.11B1.24B652.90M716.30M1.04B1.02B
EBITDA771.90M573.40M81.50M191.00M572.20M500.10M
Net Income631.90M426.00M35.30M116.00M422.80M358.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets16.77B15.27B14.61B14.00B14.25B13.44B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments915.70M435.50M316.10M305.00M230.90M120.60M
Total Debt1.28B784.10M783.20M782.40M781.60M780.80M
Total Liabilities13.35B12.43B12.15B11.66B11.11B10.24B
Stockholders Equity3.43B2.84B2.47B2.33B3.14B3.20B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.00B796.20M349.80M704.50M815.70M692.70M
Operating Cash Flow1.01B806.40M361.70M722.30M823.70M707.60M
Investing Cash Flow-792.90M-541.50M-228.50M-507.60M-460.20M-608.80M
Financing Cash Flow270.00M-145.50M-122.10M-140.60M-253.20M-193.90M

Hanover Insurance Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price170.88
Price Trends
50DMA
176.13
Negative
100DMA
171.57
Negative
200DMA
167.29
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.83
Positive
RSI
42.28
Neutral
STOCH
24.85
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For THG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 170.88 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 174.96, below the 50-day MA of 176.13, and above the 200-day MA of 167.29, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.83 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for THG.

Hanover Insurance Risk Analysis

Hanover Insurance disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hanover Insurance reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Hanover Insurance Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
$6.08B9.8820.02%2.11%5.26%72.46%
$5.41B15.4419.49%4.44%3.72%-16.23%
$4.55B11.6012.22%1.99%10.98%74.87%
$7.22B7.6316.27%1.88%6.37%68.32%
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
$4.28B10.9721.56%1.64%14.93%22.19%
$2.82B8.4812.21%2.82%2.75%572.22%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
THG
Hanover Insurance
170.88
26.86
18.65%
AXS
Axis Capital
93.66
15.72
20.17%
MCY
Mercury General
77.30
12.01
18.39%
RLI
RLI
58.96
-17.79
-23.18%
SIGI
Selective Insurance Group
75.34
-15.12
-16.71%
KMPR
Kemper
44.99
-16.38
-26.69%

Hanover Insurance Corporate Events

The Hanover Insurance Reports Record Third Quarter Earnings
Oct 31, 2025

The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. is a leading property and casualty insurance provider in the United States, offering a range of insurance solutions for businesses and individuals through independent agents and brokers. In its latest earnings report, The Hanover announced record third-quarter net income and operating income per diluted share, demonstrating strong financial performance and strategic execution. Key highlights include a combined ratio of 91.1%, excluding catastrophes, and a significant increase in net investment income by 27.5% from the previous year. The company also reported a 4.5% growth in net premiums written, with notable renewal price increases across its Personal Lines, Core Commercial, and Specialty segments. Looking forward, The Hanover remains focused on sustaining its performance and investing in innovative capabilities to ensure long-term success, as indicated by its management’s positive outlook.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Hanover Insurance Announces $500M Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
Aug 21, 2025

On August 19, 2025, The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. announced the pricing of a $500 million senior notes offering with a 5.50% interest rate due in 2035. The proceeds from this issuance are intended to repay existing debts and for general corporate purposes, potentially impacting the company’s financial strategy and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (THG) stock is a Buy with a $210.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hanover Insurance stock, see the THG Stock Forecast page.

The Hanover Insurance Group’s Strong Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
Aug 2, 2025

The Hanover Insurance Group’s second-quarter earnings call painted a picture of robust performance and positive outlook. The sentiment was overwhelmingly positive, highlighted by record operating return on equity (ROE), significant earnings growth, and improved combined ratios. The Personal Lines and Specialty segments were standout performers, contributing to the company’s strong financial results. Despite facing challenges such as increased reserving in commercial auto and potential tariff impacts, the highlights significantly outweighed these lowlights, underscoring a strong performance and a promising future.

The Hanover Insurance Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results
Aug 1, 2025

The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. is a prominent player in the U.S. insurance market, offering a range of property and casualty insurance solutions through independent agents and brokers, focusing on small and mid-sized businesses as well as personal insurance lines. In its latest earnings report, The Hanover Insurance Group announced a significant increase in net income and operating income for the second quarter of 2025, with net income reaching $157.1 million, or $4.30 per diluted share, a substantial rise from the previous year’s $40.5 million. The company also reported an operating income of $158.7 million, or $4.35 per diluted share, marking a strong performance across its business segments. Key financial metrics highlighted in the report include a combined ratio of 92.5%, with a notable improvement in the loss and loss adjustment expense ratio, which decreased by 6.5 points compared to the prior-year quarter. The Hanover also achieved a 16.7% increase in net investment income, driven by higher earned yields and increased cash flows. The company’s book value per share rose to $89.62, reflecting a 6.0% increase from March 31, 2025. Looking ahead, The Hanover Insurance Group’s management remains optimistic about the company’s prospects, emphasizing its strategic focus on disciplined underwriting and strong execution to drive profitable growth. The company is committed to leveraging its innovative product portfolio and investments to maintain its positive momentum into the second half of 2025.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 31, 2025