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Selective Insurance Group
(NASDAQ:SIGI)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$108.00
â–²(17.01% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/24/26
SIGI scores well primarily due to solid financial quality (low leverage, healthy ROE, and strong cash generation) and supportive valuation (P/E ~11.6). The score is tempered by the sharp TTM revenue decline and technically overbought momentum signals (RSI/Stoch elevated), while the earnings call adds a positive tilt via improved underwriting performance and raised investment-income outlook alongside disciplined capital returns.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Low leverage and a sizable equity base provide financial flexibility for an insurer exposed to claims volatility and catastrophe losses. This conservative balance-sheet position supports capital resilience, helps sustain underwriting capacity, and leaves room for disciplined investment and shareholder distributions.
Negative Factors
Premium and revenue contraction
The sharp TTM revenue decline and lower commercial premiums create a meaningful growth headwind for an insurer whose earnings depend on expanding earned premiums over time. Continued contraction can reduce operating scale, limit expense absorption, and make future profit growth more dependent on underwriting improvement.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Low leverage and a sizable equity base provide financial flexibility for an insurer exposed to claims volatility and catastrophe losses. This conservative balance-sheet position supports capital resilience, helps sustain underwriting capacity, and leaves room for disciplined investment and shareholder distributions.
Read all positive factors
Selective Insurance Group (SIGI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.81B
Dividend Yield1.75%
Average Volume (3M)581.32K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.8
Beta (1Y)0.32
Revenue Growth4.50%
EPS Growth28.39%
CountryUS
Employees2,800
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)8.34
Shares Outstanding58,996,227
10 Day Avg. Volume657,136
30 Day Avg. Volume581,316
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.09
Price to Book (P/B)1.42
Price to Sales (P/S)0.96
P/FCF Ratio4.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.05
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.12
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.08
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$102.50Price Target Upside11.05% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)8.49
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.71B
Selective Insurance Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI) is a U.S.-based company that delivers a wide array of insurance products and services. Its business operations are structured across four primary divisions: Standard Commercial Lines, Standard Personal Lines,...
How the Company Makes Money
SIGI generates earnings primarily through its insurance underwriting operations and its investment portfolio.
1) Underwriting revenue (insurance operations)
- Premiums: The core source of revenue is written and earned premiums from property and c...
Selective Insurance Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 22, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 04, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was predominantly positive, supported by strong quarterly earnings, a 16.9% operating ROE, improved underwriting margins, higher investment income, stable casualty reserves, capital strength, a 12% dividend increase, and progress in E&S, Personal Lines, distribution, and technology initiatives. The main challenges were declining commercial and auto premium volume, weak retention in underperforming cohorts, elevated casualty severity and profitability pressure, a higher expense ratio, competitive pricing conditions, and a decline in GAAP book value per share. Highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong Third-Quarter Earnings and Returns
The company reported fully diluted EPS of $2.11, non-GAAP operating EPS of $2.37, a 15.1% ROE, and a 16.9% operating ROE for the quarter. This marked the ninth consecutive quarter of double-digit operating returns, with year-to-date operating ROE at 14.3%.
Negative Updates
Decline in Personal Auto Premium
The 8% year-to-date increase in target-market homeowners direct premiums written was offset by a 12% decline in the more challenged auto line.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Third-Quarter Earnings and Returns
The company reported fully diluted EPS of $2.11, non-GAAP operating EPS of $2.37, a 15.1% ROE, and a 16.9% operating ROE for the quarter. This marked the ninth consecutive quarter of double-digit operating returns, with year-to-date operating ROE at 14.3%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Selective continues to expect a full-year GAAP combined ratio between 96.5% and 97.5%, assuming 5.5 points of catastrophe losses, which is down from six points a quarter ago; the assumption for the underlying loss ratio is unchanged from last quarter, and the fourth quarter combined ratio is expected to be closer to the middle of the range. The full-year underwriting expense ratio is expected to be approximately 31.5%, implying a fourth quarter expense ratio of approximately 32%, while after-tax net investment income is expected to be $490 million, up from $480 million. Guidance assumes an effective tax rate of 21.5% and a fully diluted weighted average share count of 59.9 million, reflecting year-to-date repurchases. Regarding Hurricane Isaias, it is too early to provide specific estimates, but losses from the event are expected to be immaterial to results. The company targets returning 20%-25% of earnings through regular dividends and has approximately $253 million of total available share repurchase capacity.Selective Insurance Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.43B | 5.34B | 4.86B | 4.23B | 3.56B | 3.38B |
| Gross Profit | 3.04B | 2.18B | 321.30M | 518.07M | 340.26M | 562.78M |
| EBITDA | 672.67M | 671.59M | 321.71M | 517.25M | 351.37M | 589.58M |
| Net Income | 510.94M | 466.41M | 207.01M | 365.24M | 224.89M | 403.84M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.71B | 14.13B | 12.36B | 11.08B | 9.96B | 9.82B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 10.58B | 17.96M | 63.02M | 13.27M | 25.21M | 45.06M |
| Total Debt | 901.52M | 1.01B | 555.67M | 547.62M | 549.18M | 543.35M |
| Total Liabilities | 12.27B | 10.52B | 9.24B | 8.12B | 7.44B | 6.84B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.45B | 3.61B | 3.12B | 2.95B | 2.53B | 2.98B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.14B | 1.19B | 1.07B | 736.28M | 776.39M | 749.26M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.19B | 1.23B | 1.10B | 758.91M | 802.41M | 771.42M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -945.68M | -1.49B | -947.38M | -686.36M | -734.45M | -618.78M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -257.04M | 207.48M | -102.75M | -84.49M | -87.82M | -122.81M |
Selective Insurance Group Technical Analysis
Positive
92.30
Price Trends
89.26
Positive
91.91
Positive
86.89
Positive
Market Momentum
2.52
Negative
74.95
Negative
80.72
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SIGI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 92.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 88.96, above the 50-day MA of 89.26, and above the 200-day MA of 86.89, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.52 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.95 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.72 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SIGI.
Selective Insurance Group Risk Analysis
Selective Insurance Group disclosed 20 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Selective Insurance Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Selective Insurance Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $11.50B | 19.93 | 24.52% | 2.37% | 3.65% | -7.67% | |
81 Outperform | $27.85B | 10.61 | 16.53% | 2.03% | 19.55% | 84.05% | |
78 Outperform | $81.37B | 10.49 | 26.24% | 1.18% | 1.07% | 50.02% | |
77 Outperform | $12.55B | 13.22 | 20.01% | 4.70% | -1.43% | 25.53% | |
76 Outperform | $8.21B | 11.11 | 21.22% | 1.61% | 5.57% | 38.39% | |
74 Outperform | $5.81B | 11.81 | 14.29% | 1.75% | 4.50% | 28.39% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
SIGI
Selective Insurance Group
97.73
24.55
33.55%
AFG
American Financial Group
150.29
27.09
21.99%
CINF
Cincinnati Financial
179.39
30.90
20.81%
ERIE
Erie Indemnity Company
246.39
-48.53
-16.45%
THG
Hanover Insurance
233.26
68.16
41.28%
TRV
Travelers Companies
394.01
130.13
49.32%
Selective Insurance Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Selective Insurance Group Boosts Profitability and Shareholder Returns
Positive
Oct 22, 2026
Selective Insurance Group, Inc., based in Short Hills, N.J., is a property and casualty insurer listed on Nasdaq under the ticker SIGI. The company focuses on underwriting commercial lines and related insurance products, combining disciplined pric...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Selective Insurance Expands Board, Reappoints Independent Director
Positive
Sep 16, 2026
On September 16, 2026, Selective Insurance Group expanded its Board of Directors from 12 to 13 members and reappointed Wole C. Coaxum as a non-employee, independent director, with his term running until the 2027 annual shareholders’ meeting....
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.