Oriental Chain Mfg. Co., Ltd. (6380) AI Stock Analysis

Oriental Chain Mfg. Co., Ltd.

(TSE/TYO:6380)

Select Model

Rating:48Neutral

Price Target:JPY 3,430.00▲(0.15% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:10/24/26

The score is held back primarily by weak and volatile cash generation and a sharp recent profitability compression, alongside meaningful leverage. Technical signals are also negative with the price below key moving averages and a negative MACD. Valuation adds further pressure due to a relatively high P/E and a low dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Multi-year revenue recoveryRevenue growth over the 2021–2026 cycle indicates the company has recovered from earlier weakness and retained demand across its industrial and automotive applications. This broader sales base supports operating continuity and provides a platform for future product-mix improvement.

Negative Factors

Sharp operating-margin compressionThe sharp decline in EBIT and EBITDA margins shows that recent revenue has not translated into stable operating earnings. Thin profitability leaves less protection against cost pressure or weaker demand and makes sustained earnings improvement dependent on restoring operating leverage.

Oriental Chain Mfg. Co., Ltd. (6380) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Market Cap: JPY 6.78B
Dividend Yield: 0.73%
Average Volume (3M): 12.05K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 29.5
Beta (1Y): 0.50
Revenue Growth: -3.76%
EPS Growth: 165.31%
Country: Japan
Employees: 205
Sector: General
Sector Strength: 55
Industry: Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories

Oriental Chain Mfg. Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Oriental Chain Mfg. Co., Ltd. specializes in the manufacturing and sale of diverse roller chain products. Its extensive array of offerings encompasses standard, self-lubricating, extra heavy-duty, mini-pitch, and corrosion and heat-resistant chains,...

How the Company Makes Money

The company primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling chain products and related components to customers that incorporate these parts into machines, production equipment, and vehicles. Revenue is generated mainly from product sales (recogniz...

Oriental Chain Mfg. Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement shows a multi-year turnaround and continued revenue growth, but the latest year saw a sharp deterioration in profitability (EBIT margin down to ~0.4% and EBITDA margin down to ~6.9%). Balance sheet leverage is meaningful (debt-to-equity ~0.81–1.13) and earnings power is not yet strong enough to comfortably offset that risk. Cash flow is the main weakness: operating cash flow and free cash flow have been highly volatile, with near-breakeven free cash flow in 2026 (~1% of net income) indicating weak cash conversion.

Income Statement

64Positive

Balance Sheet

58Neutral

Cash Flow

41Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.04B	4.11B	4.06B	4.08B	3.90B	3.36B
Gross Profit	831.21M	742.85M	780.50M	777.53M	633.46M	574.39M
EBITDA	383.16M	283.44M	361.62M	397.45M	303.75M	259.66M
Net Income	172.31M	126.69M	100.33M	149.23M	93.91M	28.27M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.10B	4.90B	5.15B	4.67B	4.23B	4.11B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	758.88M	481.45M	358.34M	407.18M	300.26M	389.45M
Total Debt	1.19B	1.75B	2.10B	1.55B	1.36B	1.29B
Total Liabilities	2.21B	2.75B	3.29B	2.94B	2.68B	2.66B
Stockholders Equity	2.90B	2.15B	1.86B	1.73B	1.55B	1.46B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0	4.25M	-513.13M	31.58M	-133.89M	-75.97M
Operating Cash Flow	0	338.82M	-7.35M	321.96M	80.55M	192.68M
Investing Cash Flow	0	-139.44M	-582.55M	-297.49M	-236.96M	-296.24M
Financing Cash Flow	0	-73.57M	501.22M	82.59M	64.75M	96.52M

Oriental Chain Mfg. Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price3425.00

Price Trends

50DMA3697.78Negative

100DMA3987.82Negative

200DMA3881.53Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-62.91Negative

RSI40.03Neutral

STOCH73.53Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6380, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3425.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3505.75, below the 50-day MA of 3697.78, and below the 200-day MA of 3881.53, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -62.91 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:6380.

Oriental Chain Mfg. Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

JP:6380 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JP:6877	74Outperform	JPY 109.27B	12.68	―	2.20%	17.28%	26.43%
JP:6474	64Neutral	JPY 127.48B	14.24	4.67%	1.87%	8.26%	102.64%
JP:6472	58Neutral	JPY 213.49B	14.72	5.21%	3.34%	2.92%	―
Sector *	55Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
JP:6480	51Neutral	JPY 105.51B	17.89	―	2.12%	20.64%	186.33%
JP:6380	48Neutral	JPY 6.78B	29.46	―	0.73%	-3.76%	165.31%
JP:6464	39Underperform	JPY 11.69B	-0.43	―	―	-1.43%	-1450.24%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JP:6380 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
JP:6380	Oriental Chain Mfg. Co., Ltd.	3425.00	1100.59	47.35%
JP:6472	NTN Corporation	359.10	25.06	7.50%
JP:6474	Nachi-Fujikoshi Corp.	5360.00	1507.77	39.14%
JP:6464	Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd	288.00	-104.00	-26.53%
JP:6480	Nippon Thompson Co., Ltd.	1487.00	835.17	128.13%
JP:6877	Obara Group Incorporated	6820.00	2736.43	67.01%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 24, 2026

Oriental Chain Mfg. Co., Ltd. AI Stock Analysis