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International Paper Company (IP)
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International Paper Co (IP) AI Stock Analysis

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International Paper Co

(NYSE:IP)

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Neutral 42 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:42Neutral
Price Target:
$37.00
▲(0.19% Upside)
International Paper Co's overall stock score reflects significant challenges in financial performance and technical analysis. The company's profitability and cash flow issues are major concerns, compounded by bearish technical indicators. While the earnings call indicates strategic progress, the current financial and market conditions weigh heavily on the stock's outlook.
Positive Factors
Strategic Transformation
International Paper's strategic transformation and 80/20 implementation are expected to enhance operational efficiency and drive long-term profitability, positioning the company for sustained growth.
Market Position in North America
The company's strong market position in North America, driven by strategic wins and cost-out actions, supports revenue growth and competitive advantage in a key region.
Solid Capital Structure
A stable capital structure with a healthy debt-to-equity ratio provides financial resilience, enabling the company to navigate market challenges and invest in growth opportunities.
Negative Factors
Profitability Challenges
Negative net margins and profitability issues highlight operational inefficiencies, which could hinder cash flow generation and long-term financial stability if not addressed.
Cash Flow Constraints
Declining operating cash flow and negative free cash flow indicate financial strain, limiting the company's ability to fund operations and growth initiatives without external financing.
Soft Demand in EMEA
Soft demand in EMEA reflects regional market challenges, potentially impacting revenue and profitability in this segment, necessitating strategic adjustments to mitigate impact.

International Paper Co (IP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

International Paper Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionInternational Paper Co (IP) is a global leader in the production of renewable fiber-based packaging, pulp, and paper products. With operations in North America, Europe, Latin America, Asia, and the Middle East, the company serves a diverse range of markets including industrial, commercial, and consumer sectors. Core products include containerboard, corrugated packaging, paperboard, and absorbent products, all designed to meet customer needs while promoting sustainability and responsible forestry practices.
How the Company Makes MoneyInternational Paper generates revenue primarily through the sale of its packaging and paper products. Key revenue streams include the production and sale of containerboard and corrugated packaging, which are essential for shipping and protecting goods. The company also produces paper products used in various applications, including printing and writing papers. Strategic partnerships with major retailers and manufacturers enhance its market presence and customer base. Additionally, International Paper benefits from economies of scale in production and a focus on sustainability, which attracts environmentally-conscious customers and reduces operational costs.

International Paper Co Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Geography
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Chart InsightsInternational Paper's revenue in the United States shows a modest recovery after a dip in 2023, while EMEA's revenue surged in Q1 2025, likely due to the successful integration of DS Smith. However, the Pacific Rim and Asia continue to struggle with declining revenues. Despite soft demand in North America and Europe, the company is focused on cost reductions and commercial improvements, aiming for significant EBITDA growth by Q4 2025. This strategic focus could mitigate the impact of economic uncertainties and position the company for future profitability.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

International Paper Co Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
International Paper is making significant progress on its transformation strategy, with notable achievements in EBITDA growth and market share gains in North America. However, challenging macroeconomic conditions, particularly in EMEA, are creating headwinds, impacting price and volume expectations. Cost initiatives and strategic actions are offsetting some of these challenges, positioning the company for continued improvement.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Progress in Transformation
International Paper is making measurable progress on its transformation strategy, with a 40% increase in adjusted EBITDA year-to-date compared to the same period in 2024, and an expansion of adjusted EBITDA margin by 370 basis points.
Packaging Solutions Growth
The Packaging Solutions businesses grew EBITDA sequentially by 28%, underscoring the progress made with the 80/20 implementation strategy.
North American Market Share Gains
International Paper took market share and grew box shipments in September, with a trend expected to continue in the fourth quarter and into 2026.
Strategic Cost Initiatives
Cost initiatives including mill closures and specialty business exits are contributing to a stronger business, reflecting in EBITDA improvement and enabling margin expansion.
Negative Updates
Challenging Macro Conditions
Macroeconomic conditions in North America and EMEA continue to be challenging, affecting market conditions and resulting in softer-than-expected demand.
EMEA Market Softness
EMEA experienced soft demand, resulting in lower-than-expected price and volume, driven by market softness and destocking in anticipation of paper price declines.
Reduction in Free Cash Flow
Free cash flow for the quarter increased to $150 million, but with direct cash costs of approximately $60 million related to transformation, impacting overall financial metrics.
Expected Decline in Industry Shipments
U.S. box industry shipments are now expected to decline by approximately 1% to 1.5% for the full year, contrary to initial expectations of a 1% to 1.5% increase.
Company Guidance
During International Paper's third-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance focusing on adjusted EBITDA as a key metric for evaluating their transformational progress. The North American business experienced a 40% year-to-date increase in adjusted EBITDA compared to 2024, with a 370 basis point expansion in adjusted EBITDA margin. For the fourth quarter, North America's EBITDA is projected at approximately $600 million, despite an expected $82 million volume decline due to exiting nonstrategic markets. In EMEA, third-quarter adjusted EBITDA reached $209 million, with a fourth-quarter outlook of around $230 million. The company anticipates $600 million in incremental adjusted EBITDA for 2026, fueled by cost actions and strategic commercial wins. However, due to market headwinds, the company adjusted its 2025 targets to $24 billion in net sales and $3 billion in adjusted EBITDA, with long-term goals of $5 billion in EBITDA by 2027.

International Paper Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary
International Paper Co is experiencing mixed financial performance. While there is positive revenue growth, the company struggles with profitability and cash flow, indicated by negative net profit and EBIT margins, and a negative free cash flow. The balance sheet shows stability with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.60, but inefficiencies are evident with a negative return on equity.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
International Paper Co's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a gross profit margin of 29%, which is consistent with previous years. However, the company is facing challenges with profitability, as evidenced by a negative net profit margin of -2.79% and a negative EBIT margin. Despite a revenue growth rate of 7% in the TTM, the company has struggled to maintain profitability, which is a concern.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects a stable equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.60 in the TTM, showing improvement from previous years. However, the return on equity is negative at -8.23%, indicating inefficiencies in generating returns from equity. The equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, but the overall asset base appears stable.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
The cash flow statement highlights significant challenges, with a negative free cash flow in the TTM and a free cash flow to net income ratio of -0.23. Although there is a positive free cash flow growth rate of 134.75%, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.15, indicating potential liquidity issues.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue23.47B18.62B18.92B21.16B19.36B17.57B
Gross Profit6.80B5.24B5.29B6.02B5.53B5.23B
EBITDA2.20B1.88B2.23B2.95B2.64B2.21B
Net Income-1.28B557.00M288.00M1.50B1.75B482.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets40.57B22.80B23.26B23.94B25.24B31.72B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments995.00M1.17B1.11B804.00M1.54B5.32B
Total Debt10.41B5.85B5.91B5.86B5.82B12.54B
Total Liabilities23.25B14.63B14.91B15.44B16.16B23.85B
Stockholders Equity17.32B8.17B8.36B8.50B9.08B7.85B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-277.00M757.00M692.00M1.24B1.48B2.31B
Operating Cash Flow1.19B1.68B1.83B2.17B2.03B3.06B
Investing Cash Flow-652.00M-808.00M-668.00M-608.00M6.05B-269.00M
Financing Cash Flow-742.00M-775.00M-866.00M-2.05B-7.38B-2.70B

International Paper Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price36.93
Price Trends
50DMA
46.51
Negative
100DMA
47.60
Negative
200DMA
48.85
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.67
Positive
RSI
19.64
Positive
STOCH
5.71
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 36.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.62, below the 50-day MA of 46.51, and below the 200-day MA of 48.85, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.67 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 19.64 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.71 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for IP.

International Paper Co Risk Analysis

International Paper Co disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. International Paper Co reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

International Paper Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
$11.21B12.0334.10%1.04%2.94%893.70%
$17.60B19.772.56%7.30%15.30%
$12.82B22.009.59%1.67%-3.12%
$19.22B25.884.11%4.43%
$18.14B24.556.55%6.49%10.03%-28.33%
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
$20.40B-4.65%4.79%25.91%-316.41%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
IP
International Paper Co
36.93
-17.68
-32.38%
BALL
Ball
47.11
-11.49
-19.61%
CCK
Crown Holdings
97.22
5.10
5.54%
PKG
Packaging
195.59
-29.04
-12.93%
SW
Smurfit Westrock
36.57
-13.49
-26.95%
AMCR
Amcor
7.86
-1.80
-18.63%

International Paper Co Corporate Events

International Paper Reports Q3 2025 Earnings Loss
Oct 31, 2025

International Paper Company is a global leader in sustainable packaging solutions, operating in over 30 countries and employing more than 65,000 people worldwide. Headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee, the company focuses on providing innovative packaging solutions to enhance safety and productivity.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
International Paper Announces Q3 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Oct 30, 2025

International Paper Company announced its financial results for the fiscal quarter ending September 30, 2025, through a press release filed with the SEC. The company will discuss these results in a webcast and conference call, highlighting its continued focus on sustainable packaging solutions and its strategic positioning in the North American and EMEA markets.

Dividends
International Paper Announces Dividend Declaration for Q4 2025
Positive
Oct 14, 2025

International Paper Company announced a dividend declaration for its common and preferred stock for the period from October 1 to December 31, 2025. The dividends, payable on December 16, 2025, reflect the company’s commitment to returning value to its shareholders and may influence investor confidence and market positioning.

Business Operations and Strategy
International Paper Executives Acquire Shares Through Savings Plans
Positive
Oct 9, 2025

International Paper Company announced transactions involving the acquisition of shares through its Salaried Savings Plan and Deferred Compensation Savings Plan. These transactions, conducted by senior executives, reflect the company’s commitment to aligning employee interests with its financial performance and may enhance stakeholder confidence in the company’s strategic direction.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
International Paper to Divest Global Cellulose Fibers Business
Neutral
Sep 29, 2025

International Paper Company has entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement to sell its Global Cellulose Fibers business to Absorbent Fiber Topco, Inc. The transaction, which involves multiple subsidiaries across the US, Canada, Poland, and Hong Kong, is contingent upon regulatory approvals, including the early termination of the waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act. The Federal Trade Commission has already granted early termination of this waiting period, and the transaction is now pending customary closing conditions. This strategic move is expected to impact International Paper’s operations and market positioning by allowing it to focus more on its core sustainable packaging solutions.

M&A Transactions
International Paper Co Awaits Final Deal Approvals
Neutral
Sep 26, 2025

On August 20, 2025, International Paper Co. entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement to sell its Global Cellulose Fibers business to Absorbent Fiber Topco, Inc. The transaction is contingent upon regulatory approvals, including the expiration or early termination of the statutory waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act. As of September 24, 2025, the Federal Trade Commission granted early termination of the waiting period, but the transaction still awaits other customary closing conditions and approvals.

The most recent analyst rating on (IP) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on International Paper Co stock, see the IP Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
International Paper to Announce Q3 2025 Earnings
Neutral
Sep 23, 2025

International Paper announced it will release its third-quarter earnings for 2025 on October 30, before the New York Stock Exchange opens. The company will host a webcast to discuss the earnings and current market conditions, which stakeholders can access via their website. This announcement highlights International Paper’s commitment to transparency and engagement with its stakeholders, potentially impacting investor confidence and market perception.

Business Operations and StrategyDividends
International Paper Executives Acquire Shares via Dividend Reinvestment
Positive
Sep 18, 2025

International Paper Company announced the acquisition of shares by its directors and senior executives through a dividend reinvestment plan following the company’s quarterly dividend payout. This transaction, conducted on the New York Stock Exchange, signifies a reinforcement of stakeholder confidence and commitment to the company’s growth strategy.

Other
International Paper Executive Sells Shares in Open Market Transaction
Neutral
Sep 18, 2025

International Paper Company announced that Joseph R. Saab, Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary, sold 9,000 shares on the open market at an average price of $45.5350 per share. This transaction, conducted in line with the company’s Insider Trading Policy and UK Market Abuse Regulation, reflects internal managerial share activities, potentially impacting shareholder perceptions and market dynamics.

Business Operations and Strategy
International Paper Executives Acquire Shares through Savings Plans
Positive
Sep 3, 2025

International Paper Company announced transactions involving its Salaried Savings Plan (SSP) and Non-Funded Deferred Compensation Savings Plan (DCSP), where senior executives acquired shares of the company’s common stock. These transactions, conducted by key managerial personnel, highlight the company’s commitment to aligning employee interests with corporate performance, potentially impacting stakeholder confidence and market perception.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
International Paper Sells Global Cellulose Fibers Business
Positive
Aug 21, 2025

International Paper has announced a significant transaction involving the sale of its Global Cellulose Fibers business. The sale, detailed in a recent SEC filing, involves multiple entities across the US, Canada, Poland, and Hong Kong, and is part of a strategic move to streamline operations. This divestiture is expected to impact the company’s market positioning by allowing it to focus more on its core sustainable packaging solutions, potentially enhancing value for stakeholders.

Business Operations and Strategy
International Paper Announces Closure of Georgia Mills Amid Strategic Shift
Negative
Aug 21, 2025

International Paper announced the closure of its containerboard mills in Riceboro and Savannah, Georgia, as part of its 80/20 strategic approach to streamline operations and reduce costs. This move will impact approximately 980 employees, and the company is committed to providing support through severance packages and outplacement assistance.

International Paper Faces Legal Challenges: Antitrust and Environmental Risks Threaten Financial Stability
Aug 9, 2025

International Paper Company faces significant business risks due to ongoing legal, regulatory, and governmental proceedings, particularly concerning antitrust and environmental matters. Notably, the company and its DS Smith subsidiaries in Italy are involved in a case with the Italian Competition Authority regarding alleged anti-competitive behavior, and they are also defendants in a class action lawsuit alleging price-fixing of containerboard products. These proceedings, along with other potential loss contingencies, pose a threat of material adverse impact on the company’s financial results. Although International Paper intends to defend itself vigorously, the early stage of these claims makes it difficult to predict the ultimate financial liability, which could be substantial.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
International Paper Releases Q2 2025 Financial Report
Positive
Aug 8, 2025

International Paper has filed its Q2 2025 quarterly report with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which is now available on the company’s website. This report reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to transparency and provides insights into its financial performance and strategic direction following its acquisition of DS Smith, positioning it as a leader in the growing packaging industry.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
International Paper Awards PSUs to CFO Under New Incentive Plan
Neutral
Aug 7, 2025

International Paper Company announced a transaction involving the award of Performance Stock Units (PSUs) to Lance T. Loeffler, the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, as part of the company’s 2025 Long-Term Incentive Plan. This award aims to align the PSUs with the methodology specified in Loeffler’s Offer Letter, adjusting the number of PSUs granted to reflect a different calculation approach. The PSUs will vest over three years, contingent upon continued employment and performance objectives, potentially impacting the company’s operational alignment and executive compensation strategy.

Business Operations and Strategy
International Paper Announces Share Acquisitions in Employee Savings Plans
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

International Paper Company announced transactions involving acquisitions of shares through its Salaried Savings Plan and Deferred Compensation Savings Plan. These transactions, conducted by senior executives, reflect the company’s ongoing efforts to provide robust retirement savings options for its employees, potentially enhancing employee retention and satisfaction.

International Paper’s Earnings Call: Transformation in Focus
Aug 2, 2025

The latest earnings call from International Paper Company paints a picture of a company in transformation. The sentiment expressed during the call was cautiously optimistic, highlighting significant efforts to close market share gaps and improve operational efficiency. While there are positive developments in North America and strategic initiatives underway in EMEA, challenges persist, particularly concerning mill reliability and the macroeconomic environment affecting demand in EMEA.

International Paper’s Q2 2025 Earnings and Outlook
Aug 1, 2025

International Paper Company is a global leader in sustainable packaging solutions, operating in over 30 countries with headquarters in Memphis, Tennessee, and London, UK. The company focuses on providing innovative packaging solutions while maintaining a strong commitment to sustainability.

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
International Paper Announces Q2 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Jul 31, 2025

International Paper Company announced its financial results for the fiscal quarter ending June 30, 2025, via a press release and a Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the SEC. The company will host a webcast and conference call to discuss these results, accessible through their investor relations website. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to transparency and communication with stakeholders, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 31, 2025