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International Paper Co
(NYSE:IP)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$32.00
▼(-22.69% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/09/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (TTM operating/net losses and negative returns, with only moderate balance-sheet support), and bearish technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting factors include resilient cash flow and a high dividend yield, while the earnings call adds a modest positive from detailed guidance and operational improvement, tempered by increased macro headwinds, disruption costs, and reduced upside in the full-year outlook.
Positive Factors
North America volume growth
Growing box volumes and new business wins indicate continued customer adoption in the core packaging franchise. Outpacing the industry would support better mill and converting-plant utilization, helping International Paper protect its market position and build a more durable revenue base.
Negative Factors
Severe profitability deterioration
Operating and net losses show that the current business is not converting its revenue base into earnings, despite relatively stable gross margins. Persistent losses can weaken internal funding capacity, reduce returns on invested capital, and make recovery dependent on successful cost actions and improved operating conditions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
North America volume growth
Growing box volumes and new business wins indicate continued customer adoption in the core packaging franchise. Outpacing the industry would support better mill and converting-plant utilization, helping International Paper protect its market position and build a more durable revenue base.
Read all positive factors
International Paper Co Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much revenue each business segment generates, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Shows how much revenue each business segment generates, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyInternational Paper Co (IP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$17.84B
Dividend Yield5.5%
Average Volume (3M)5.54M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.82
Revenue Growth10.34%
EPS Growth-7165.92%
CountryUS
Employees62,602
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-6.52
Shares Outstanding529,569,900
10 Day Avg. Volume5,411,569
30 Day Avg. Volume5,541,004
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.40
Price to Sales (P/S)0.84
P/FCF Ratio-130.80
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.76
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.30
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.69
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-136.88
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$46.67Price Target Upside12.75% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)1.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)$24.59B
International Paper Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
International Paper Company, established in 1898 and headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee, functions as a leading global packaging enterprise. Its extensive operational footprint spans the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Pacific...
How the Company Makes Money
International Paper primarily makes money by manufacturing fiber-based materials and converting them into packaging products, then selling those products to businesses under contractual and spot-market arrangements.
1) Packaging (corrugated produ...
International Paper Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call shows clear operational progress (mill performance +500 bps, North America volume growth +1.7%, completed conversions/acquisitions and tangible EMEA cost-out actions) and solid Q2 EBITDA contributions, balanced against meaningful near-term headwinds (heavy outage costs, input inflation, Pine Hill disruption, and a lowered top-end guidance). Management maintains confidence in long-term plans and reiterated mid-teens to mid-20s returns on targeted investments, but acknowledged the macro and geopolitical risks that trimmed near-term upside.Positive Updates
North America Volume Growth
Box volumes in North America increased 1.7% year-over-year on a daily basis and the company expects to outpace the industry by approximately 2% for the full year, driven by strengthened customer relationships and new business wins.
Negative Updates
Sales and Margin Pressures
Overall sales declined in North America due to the planned exit of a nonstrategic export business (Savannah mill closure) and EMEA experienced softer demand driven by geopolitical uncertainty; earnings and margins declined year-over-year in the quarter.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
North America Volume Growth
Box volumes in North America increased 1.7% year-over-year on a daily basis and the company expects to outpace the industry by approximately 2% for the full year, driven by strengthened customer relationships and new business wins.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management issued detailed quantitative guidance: Packaging Solutions North America reported $425M of adjusted EBITDA in Q2, delivered H1 adjusted EBITDA of $902M and now forecasts full‑year adjusted EBITDA of $2.35–2.45B with Q3 EBITDA of approximately $555–585M (which includes an ~$85M Pine Hill Q3 impact and a preliminary $70–100M second‑half disruption they expect to recover mostly via insurance); they expect roughly a $600M improvement from H1 to H2 excluding Pine Hill, but have increased macro headwinds to about $150M (from ~$50M) driven by higher OCC, diesel, transport spot rates and medical costs. Packaging Solutions EMEA generated $182M in Q2, sees Q3 EBITDA of ~$230–250M and full‑year EBITDA of $900M–1.0B (H1 $390M; H2 step‑up ≈$170M driven by ~$110M margin/commercial recovery, ~$40M cost‑out and ~$20M input benefits); enterprise free cash flow was negative $7M in Q2 after $533M of capital investment. Operational and strategic metrics included North America box volumes +1.7% y/y (expected to outpace industry ≈2% for the year), mill performance improvement of ~500 bps y/y, >$210M of EMEA run‑rate savings (31 sites and >3,000 position net reductions), the June $50/ton paper price publication factored in, and management citing roughly a $9 proxy impact per $1/ton of containerboard pricing.International Paper Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
22
Negative
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
54
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 24.20B | 24.90B | 18.62B | 18.92B | 21.16B | 19.36B |
| Gross Profit | 6.72B | 7.35B | 5.24B | 3.85B | 6.02B | 5.53B |
| EBITDA | -230.00M | -97.00M | 1.88B | 2.27B | 2.95B | 2.54B |
| Net Income | -3.44B | -3.52B | 557.00M | 302.00M | 1.50B | 1.75B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 36.52B | 37.96B | 22.80B | 23.26B | 23.94B | 25.24B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 726.00M | 1.15B | 1.17B | 1.11B | 804.00M | 1.54B |
| Total Debt | 9.69B | 10.80B | 5.85B | 5.91B | 5.86B | 5.82B |
| Total Liabilities | 22.07B | 23.14B | 14.63B | 14.91B | 15.44B | 16.16B |
| Stockholders Equity | 14.46B | 14.83B | 8.17B | 8.36B | 8.50B | 9.08B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 492.00M | -159.00M | 757.00M | 692.00M | 1.24B | 1.48B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.65B | 1.70B | 1.68B | 1.83B | 2.17B | 2.03B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.49B | -1.02B | -808.00M | -668.00M | -608.00M | 6.05B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.67B | -708.00M | -775.00M | -866.00M | -2.05B | -7.38B |
International Paper Co Technical Analysis
Neutral
41.39
Price Trends
35.81
Negative
36.65
Negative
36.92
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.55
Negative
48.29
Neutral
67.47
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 41.39 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.98, above the 50-day MA of 35.81, and above the 200-day MA of 36.92, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.55 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for IP.
International Paper Co Risk Analysis
International Paper Co disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. International Paper Co reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
International Paper Co Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $4.40B | 18.39 | 7.92% | 1.79% | -4.72% | -24.05% | |
65 Neutral | $10.57B | 6.45 | 17.50% | 2.52% | 0.87% | 12.10% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | $1.27B | 16.36 | 7.84% | 5.75% | -7.13% | -64.17% | |
54 Neutral | $302.23M | -6.16 | -6.13% | ― | -1.93% | 48.75% | |
49 Neutral | $17.84B | -5.16 | -22.39% | 5.50% | 10.34% | -7165.92% | |
38 Underperform | $13.76M | -0.03 | -638.67% | 8.62% | -4.81% | -372.95% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
IP
International Paper Co
33.63
-12.06
-26.39%
CLW
Clearwater Paper
18.74
-0.82
-4.19%
MERC
Mercer International
0.21
-2.20
-91.46%
UFPI
UFP Industries
79.99
-10.33
-11.44%
SUZ
Suzano Papel e Celulose SA
8.45
-0.33
-3.73%
SLVM
Sylvamo Corp
31.31
-9.37
-23.03%
International Paper Co Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
International Paper appoints new independent directors to key committees
Positive
Oct 8, 2026
International Paper Co. announced that, effective October 8, 2026, its board assigned newly appointed independent directors Katherine Collins and Lori J. Ryerkerk to key board committees, following their previously disclosed appointments effective...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
International Paper announces new independent board appointments
Positive
Jul 17, 2026
On July 14, 2026, International Paper’s board appointed investment leader Katherine Collins and energy and materials executive Lori J. Ryerkerk as independent directors, effective October 1, 2026. Their initial terms will run until the May 2...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.