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Clearwater Paper
(NYSE:CLW)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$19.50
▼(-10.43% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/21/26
The score is primarily held back by weak current profitability and earnings volatility, despite positive TTM free cash flow and a moderate, improving leverage profile. Technicals are moderately supportive with an improving longer-term trend, while valuation remains pressured due to negative earnings and no dividend. Earnings call guidance points to near-term EBITDA improvement and pricing-led recovery, but execution risks and cost inflation limit upside in the score.
Positive Factors
Structural cost reduction
Removing more than $60 million of fixed costs, including Cypress Bend restructuring savings, strengthens the company’s cost base and improves operating leverage. These actions can support margins across future demand cycles, provided production remains aligned with market volumes.
Negative Factors
Weak and volatile profitability
Very thin gross margins and a renewed net loss show that Clearwater Paper currently has limited protection against changes in pricing, input costs, and production efficiency. Persistent losses would weaken returns on capital and reduce the company’s ability to fund growth internally.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Structural cost reduction
Removing more than $60 million of fixed costs, including Cypress Bend restructuring savings, strengthens the company’s cost base and improves operating leverage. These actions can support margins across future demand cycles, provided production remains aligned with market volumes.
Read all positive factors
Clearwater Paper Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Sales by Product Line
Breaks down revenue by business segments or product lines, showing which areas drive growth and which are lagging. Reveals concentration risk, diversification strength, and where management is allocating resources—key for judging the company’s resilience and future profit potential.
Breaks down revenue by business segments or product lines, showing which areas drive growth and which are lagging. Reveals concentration risk, diversification strength, and where management is allocating resources—key for judging the company’s resilience and future profit potential.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyClearwater Paper (CLW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$305.94M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)125.72K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.91
Revenue Growth-1.93%
EPS Growth48.75%
CountryUS
Employees1,900
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.04
Shares Outstanding16,127,764
10 Day Avg. Volume109,155
30 Day Avg. Volume125,723
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.18
Price to Book (P/B)0.34
Price to Sales (P/S)0.18
P/FCF Ratio-3.68K
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.73
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.35
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit21.48
Enterprise Value/Ebitda50.05
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$21.50Price Target Upside-1.24% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-3.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.49B
Clearwater Paper Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Clearwater Paper Corporation is an enterprise engaged in the manufacturing and supply of bleached paperboards, alongside various tissue products for consumers and parent roll applications, serving both the United States and international markets. ...
How the Company Makes Money
Clearwater Paper makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling paper-based products to business customers. A major revenue stream comes from its consumer tissue business, where it produces private-label tissue products (including bathroom tis...
Clearwater Paper Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: operational and strategic progress (shipment growth, cost reductions, product launches, reduced net debt, and Q3 positive EBITDA guidance) are positive signs, while near-term profitability was weak (Q2 adjusted EBITDA -$8M and net loss $21M), market pricing carryover and conflict-driven cost inflation remain material headwinds. Management has clear actions and guidance to restore margins, but execution and timing risks (pricing flow-through, refinancing, trade uncertainty) keep the outlook cautious.Positive Updates
Shipment Volume Growth
Quarterly shipment volumes increased 8% year over year; shipments are up ~6% year-to-date, indicating improving demand trends.
Negative Updates
Negative Adjusted EBITDA and Net Loss in Quarter
Adjusted EBITDA was negative $8M for the quarter (within guidance) and the company reported a net loss from continuing operations of $21M, or $1.33 per diluted share (includes $15M insurance proceeds).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Shipment Volume Growth
Quarterly shipment volumes increased 8% year over year; shipments are up ~6% year-to-date, indicating improving demand trends.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance summary: For Q3 the company expects adjusted EBITDA of $20–30 million, paperboard shipments roughly flat vs. Q2 with higher production and no planned major outages, and incremental Iran‑related chemical/transportation costs of $3–5 million in Q3 (bringing the Q2–Q3 incremental impact to ~$8–10M and total 2026 impact to ~$20–25M). Full‑year 2026 assumptions: revenue $1.4–1.5 billion with modest shipment growth; capex $65–75 million; targeted working capital improvement $20–30 million; SG&A toward the low end of a 6–7% target (Q2 was 5.6%); major maintenance direct costs revised to $32–35 million (vs. prior $45–50M) with Augusta outage narrowed to $5–6M in 2026 and $10–11M deferred to Q1 2027. Pricing actions (a $60/ton June increase, a second $60/ton in August, and RISI’s July moves of +$40/ton folding carton and +$60/ton cup) are expected to produce roughly $10–20M of benefit in 2026 and ~$50–60M of annualized EBITDA upside thereafter; ~50% of volume is tied to the RISI index. Financial posture: net debt down $59M in Q2 ($50M YTD), free cash flow expected to be positive in 2026 aided by YTD insurance recoveries (~$32.5M) and tax refunds (~$26M in Q2, ~$30M YTD), and long‑run targets of 13–14% cross‑cycle EBITDA margins and >$100M annual free cash flow.Clearwater Paper Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.52B | 1.56B | 1.38B | 1.14B | 2.08B | 1.77B |
| Gross Profit | 24.70M | 115.60M | 76.10M | 200.70M | 256.70M | 182.60M |
| EBITDA | 10.60M | 48.80M | -900.00K | 117.80M | 212.00M | 104.50M |
| Net Income | -49.30M | -18.60M | -110.90M | 107.70M | 46.00M | -28.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.57B | 1.59B | 1.68B | 1.67B | 1.70B | 1.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 95.40M | 30.70K | 79.60M | 42.00M | 54.40M | 25.20M |
| Total Debt | 361.10M | 421.80M | 321.60M | 472.60M | 613.70M | 698.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 777.30M | 763.00M | 824.80M | 1.00B | 1.13B | 1.18B |
| Stockholders Equity | 794.10M | 825.30M | 854.50M | 668.70M | 572.00M | 511.70M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 56.60M | -76.50K | -55.20M | 117.00M | 116.70M | 58.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 108.50M | 12.30K | 61.40M | 190.70M | 150.20M | 96.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -63.50M | -100.40K | 167.70M | -73.70M | -33.50M | -25.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.90M | 39.30K | -191.40M | -129.40M | -88.60M | -82.00M |
Clearwater Paper Technical Analysis
Negative
21.77
Price Trends
20.97
Negative
18.60
Positive
17.15
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.36
Positive
38.37
Neutral
45.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CLW, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.77 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.29, above the 50-day MA of 20.97, and above the 200-day MA of 17.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CLW.
Clearwater Paper Risk Analysis
Clearwater Paper disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Clearwater Paper reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Clearwater Paper Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $10.71B | 6.46 | 17.50% | 2.49% | 0.87% | 12.10% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | $1.30B | 17.06 | 7.84% | 5.51% | -7.13% | -64.17% | |
54 Neutral | $305.94M | -6.24 | -6.13% | ― | -1.93% | 48.75% | |
52 Neutral | $10.24M | -1.24 | -48.58% | ― | -10.71% | -297.69% | |
49 Neutral | $17.01B | -4.93 | -22.39% | 5.76% | 10.34% | -7165.92% | |
39 Underperform | $16.02M | -0.03 | -638.67% | 8.62% | -4.81% | -372.95% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CLW
Clearwater Paper
18.97
-0.07
-0.37%
IP
International Paper Co
32.12
-11.38
-26.16%
JCTC
Jewett-Cameron Trading Company
2.91
-0.48
-14.16%
MERC
Mercer International
0.24
-2.36
-90.81%
SUZ
Suzano Papel e Celulose SA
8.57
-0.10
-1.14%
SLVM
Sylvamo Corp
32.65
-8.06
-19.79%
Clearwater Paper Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Clearwater Paper Refinances Credit Facilities to Extend Maturities
Positive
Sep 21, 2026
On September 18, 2026, Clearwater Paper refinanced its capital structure by entering into a second amended and restated credit agreement that replaces its prior term revolver and asset-based lending facilities. The new package comprises a $200 mil...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.