Want to see MERC full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Mercer International
(NASDAQ:MERC)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:39Underperform
Price Target:
$0.40
▼(-6.28% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/27/26
MERC scores low primarily due to severely weakened financial performance (large losses, negative equity, and negative operating/free cash flow), reinforced by a clearly bearish technical setup (price below all key moving averages and negative MACD). Earnings-call commentary and corporate events add to near-term uncertainty via liquidity/covenant and listing risks, with only partial offsets from cost-savings progress, mass timber growth, and Canadian modernization support.
Positive Factors
Cost Savings Program
The cost program provides a measurable, internally controlled path to improve efficiency and partially offset cyclical pulp, lumber, fiber and energy pressures. Continued execution could support margins and cash flow over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Strain
High debt combined with negative equity materially limits financial flexibility and increases refinancing and solvency risk. Persistent losses could make covenant management, capital investment and strategic restructuring more difficult over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cost Savings Program
The cost program provides a measurable, internally controlled path to improve efficiency and partially offset cyclical pulp, lumber, fiber and energy pressures. Continued execution could support margins and cash flow over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Mercer International (MERC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$28.58M
Dividend Yield11.18%
Average Volume (3M)591.64K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.36
Revenue Growth-4.81%
EPS Growth-372.95%
CountryUS
Employees3,545
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-7.73
Shares Outstanding67,018,036
10 Day Avg. Volume297,226
30 Day Avg. Volume591,638
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.95
Price to Sales (P/S)0.07
P/FCF Ratio-1.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$0.55Price Target Upside27.91% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-3.39
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.98B
Mercer International Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mercer International Inc. (MERC) is a global manufacturer primarily engaged in the production and marketing of northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) pulp. Its pulp products are distributed internationally, reaching markets in Europe, the United ...
How the Company Makes Money
Mercer primarily makes money by producing commodity forest products and selling them into global markets at prevailing market prices. Its key revenue streams include: (1) Kraft pulp sales: Mercer manufactures bleached kraft pulp (including hardwoo...
Mercer International Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call contained a number of operational and commercial positives — notably strong mass timber growth, solid progress on the One Goal One Hundred cost program, regional pulp and lumber price pockets of strength, and proactive strategic work to address liquidity — but these were outweighed by significant near-term headwinds: negative consolidated and segment EBITDA, a $29 million inventory impairment, elevated German fiber and energy costs, production curtailments, covenant/going-concern pressures, and declining liquidity. Management is taking decisive cost, restructuring and financing actions, but material execution and market risks remain before results normalize.Positive Updates
Strong Mass Timber Momentum
Mass timber revenues increased over 25% quarter-over-quarter and production rose ~40% in Q2. Current mass timber backlog is about $151 million, with ~70% of backlog from hyperscaler data center projects, positioning the business as a growth engine into 2027.
Negative Updates
Negative Consolidated and Segment Results
Operating EBITDA was negative $21 million in Q2 (versus positive $8 million in Q1). Consolidated net loss was $76 million in Q2 (−$1.13/share) versus a net loss of $52 million in Q1 (−$0.78/share). Pulp segment EBITDA was negative $13 million and solid wood EBITDA negative $8 million in Q2.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Mass Timber Momentum
Mass timber revenues increased over 25% quarter-over-quarter and production rose ~40% in Q2. Current mass timber backlog is about $151 million, with ~70% of backlog from hyperscaler data center projects, positioning the business as a growth engine into 2027.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that near-term headwinds will persist: they expect German pulp fiber costs to remain elevated in Q3 while sawmill costs should moderate and Canadian fiber costs decline (Germany ~+7% QoQ; Canada ~-4% QoQ), and said Q3 cash-flow items should be similar to Q2. They have ~40 days (~42,000 t) of Q3 maintenance/curtailments scheduled (Rosenthal 26 days/22,000 t including 12 days market-related curtailment; Peace River 10 days/~14,000 t; Stendal 4 days/<7,000 t) and plan Celgar down 18 days/~23,000 t in Q4; German mills were strategically reduced ~26,000 t in Q2. Price and volume guidance/benchmarks cited: softwood pulp realizations $682/t (Q1 $696), NBSK China $658/t (-$27 Q), Europe list $1,655/t (+$37 Q), NA list $1,577/t (+$14 Q); hardwood realizations $607/t (from $564) and NA hardwood list $1,495/t (+$157 Q); they expect seasonally weak pulp demand in Q3 but tightening NBSK later in 2026/into 2027. Financially, they noted Q2 operating EBITDA of -$21M (pulp -$13M; solid wood -$8M), consolidated net loss -$76M (-$1.13/sh) including a $29M non‑cash inventory impairment, aggregate liquidity of ~$192M ($79M cash, $113M undrawn revolvers) after a $37M decrease, and that the special committee is pursuing capital‑structure alternatives while One Goal One Hundred remains on track (achieved $30M in 2025 and $24M in H1'26 toward a $100M target by end‑2026).Mercer International Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
14
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
8
Very Negative
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.86B | 1.87B | 2.04B | 1.99B | 2.28B | 1.80B |
| Gross Profit | -68.42M | -67.63M | 189.36M | -31.86M | 498.20M | 425.52M |
| EBITDA | -338.68M | -236.33M | 193.03M | -9.07M | 560.96M | 462.81M |
| Net Income | -517.45M | -497.89M | -85.14M | -242.06M | 247.04M | 170.99M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.87B | 2.04B | 2.26B | 2.66B | 2.73B | 2.35B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 78.78M | 186.81M | 184.93M | 313.99M | 354.03M | 345.61M |
| Total Debt | 1.64B | 1.63B | 1.49B | 1.63B | 1.37B | 1.26B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.97B | 1.97B | 1.83B | 2.03B | 1.89B | 1.66B |
| Stockholders Equity | -97.97M | 68.06M | 429.77M | 635.41M | 838.78M | 694.02M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -154.18M | -80.00M | 5.89M | -205.33M | 181.92M | 21.39M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -84.68M | 8.59M | 90.20M | -69.00M | 360.66M | 182.21M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -58.04M | -81.33M | -66.99M | -199.87M | -424.61M | -187.13M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 81.44M | 79.81M | -152.78M | 228.62M | 80.90M | -9.50M |
Mercer International Technical Analysis
Negative
0.43
Price Trends
0.62
Negative
0.82
Negative
1.35
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.07
Positive
32.34
Neutral
11.46
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MERC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.43 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.53, below the 50-day MA of 0.62, and below the 200-day MA of 1.35, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.46 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MERC.
Mercer International Risk Analysis
Mercer International disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mercer International reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mercer International Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $681.60M | 7.57 | 19.47% | 4.58% | 1.06% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | $1.47B | 19.17 | 7.84% | 4.70% | -7.13% | -64.17% | |
55 Neutral | $351.10M | -7.02 | -6.13% | ― | -1.93% | 48.75% | |
39 Underperform | $28.58M | -0.05 | -638.67% | 11.18% | -4.81% | -372.95% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
MERC
Mercer International
0.41
-2.83
-87.25%
CLW
Clearwater Paper
21.35
-0.03
-0.14%
MATV
Mativ Holdings
12.33
0.47
3.96%
SLVM
Sylvamo Corp
36.69
-7.34
-16.66%
Mercer International Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Mercer International secures Canadian support for mill modernization
Positive
Aug 26, 2026
On August 26, 2026, Mercer International Inc. announced that the Government of Canada, through Prairies Economic Development Canada, committed C$20 million (approximately US$14 million) in financial support to its Mercer Peace River Pulp mill in n...
Business Operations and Strategy
Mercer International realigns operations amid challenging market conditions
Negative
Jul 15, 2026
On July 14, 2026, Mercer Torgau GmbH Co. KG, an indirectly wholly owned subsidiary of Mercer International Inc., announced it had begun strategic actions to realign its capacity and operations with challenging market conditions, including economi...
Delistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Mercer International Faces Nasdaq Non-Compliance Over Bid Price
Negative
Jul 10, 2026
On July 9, 2026, Mercer International Inc. received a notice from Nasdaq staff that the company’s common stock had failed to meet the exchange’s minimum bid price requirement of $1.00 per share for 30 consecutive business days, trigger...
Business Operations and Strategy
Mercer International extends Rosenthal mill maintenance shutdown
Negative
Jun 30, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Mercer International announced that its Mercer Rosenthal pulp mill in Germany will extend a planned maintenance shutdown from two weeks to the entire month of September 2026. The company is coordinating production, wood procureme...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Mercer International Shareholders Reelect Board, Approve Compensation
Positive
Jun 1, 2026
At Mercer International Inc.’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders held on June 1, 2026, investors elected all nine nominees to the company’s board of directors, signaling broad support for the existing governance slate and continuity ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.