Packaging (PKG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $17.74B
• Dividend Yield: 2.51%
• Average Volume (3M): 739.33K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.70
• Revenue Growth: 7.30%
• EPS Growth: 15.30%
• Country: US
• Employees: 15,400
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 2.73
• Shares Outstanding: 89,978,780
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,026,389
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 739,331
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.00
• 1Y Price Target: $238.86
• Price Target Upside: 20.58% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 10
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $9.08B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $228.00 ▲(15.10% Upside)

The company's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are the most significant factors contributing to the score. Technical analysis suggests caution due to bearish momentum, while valuation metrics indicate moderate attractiveness. The absence of notable corporate events limits additional impact on the score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand for PKG's products, enhancing its market position and financial stability.

Strategic Acquisition

The acquisition of Greif's containerboard business is expected to enhance PKG's growth and integration capabilities, strengthening its competitive edge.

Strong Cash Flow

Robust cash flow generation supports PKG's operational and financial stability, enabling reinvestment in growth initiatives and debt management.

Negative Factors

Higher Operating Costs

Rising operating and outage costs can pressure margins, potentially impacting profitability and requiring cost management strategies.

Export Sales Decline

Declining export sales, influenced by global trade tensions, may limit revenue growth and necessitate a focus on domestic markets.

Impact of Global Trade Tensions

Ongoing global trade tensions pose a risk to PKG's international sales, potentially affecting long-term growth prospects in key markets.

Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Packaging Corporation of America manufactures and sells containerboard and corrugated packaging products in the United States. The company operates through Packaging and Paper segments. The Packaging segment offers various containerboard and corrugated packaging products, such as conventional shipping containers used to protect and transport manufactured goods; multi-color boxes and displays that help to merchandise the packaged product in retail locations; and honeycomb protective packaging products, as well as packaging for meat, fresh fruit and vegetables, processed food, beverages, and other industrial and consumer products. This segment sells its corrugated products through a direct sales and marketing organization, independent brokers, and distribution partners. The Paper segment manufactures and sells commodity and specialty papers, as well as communication papers, including cut-size office papers, and printing and converting papers. This segment sells white papers through its sales and marketing organization. Packaging Corporation of America was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Lake Forest, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

PKG generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling its packaging products to a diverse range of industries. Key revenue streams include the sale of custom packaging solutions, stock packaging items, and specialty products tailored to specific client requirements. The company also benefits from long-term contracts with major clients, ensuring a steady income flow. Additionally, PKG engages in strategic partnerships with suppliers and manufacturers to optimize its supply chain and reduce costs, further enhancing profitability. The growing demand for sustainable packaging solutions in response to environmental concerns has also contributed to increased sales, positioning PKG favorably in the market.

Packaging Financial Statement Overview

Summary

The company exhibits strong financial health with consistent revenue and profit growth, efficient operational management, and a stable balance sheet. The cash flow metrics further reinforce the company's ability to generate and manage cash effectively.

Income Statement

The company demonstrates strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 1.12%, supported by a solid gross profit margin of 22.13% and a net profit margin of 10.43%. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 14.56% and 20.90% respectively, indicating efficient operational management. The consistent revenue growth and robust profitability metrics suggest a well-managed income statement.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.62, reflecting a balanced approach to leveraging. Return on equity is strong at 20.84%, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 51.23%, suggesting a stable financial structure. Overall, the balance sheet reflects a solid financial position with manageable leverage.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals a positive free cash flow growth rate of 18.34% TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.26 and free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.42 suggest efficient cash conversion. The company maintains strong cash flow metrics, supporting its operational and financial stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.64B	8.38B	7.80B	8.48B	7.73B	6.66B
Gross Profit	1.91B	1.78B	1.70B	2.09B	1.87B	1.39B
EBITDA	1.79B	1.63B	1.59B	1.89B	1.68B	1.14B
Net Income	904.50M	805.10M	765.20M	1.03B	841.10M	461.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.04B	8.83B	8.68B	8.00B	7.84B	7.43B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	880.30M	787.00M	1.14B	405.20M	704.80M	1.08B
Total Debt	2.81B	2.77B	3.17B	2.79B	2.73B	2.74B
Total Liabilities	4.41B	4.43B	4.68B	4.34B	4.23B	4.19B
Stockholders Equity	4.63B	4.40B	4.00B	3.67B	3.61B	3.25B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	625.40M	521.50M	845.40M	670.80M	489.00M	611.60M
Operating Cash Flow	1.29B	1.19B	1.32B	1.50B	1.09B	1.03B
Investing Cash Flow	-241.00M	-277.80M	-875.10M	-833.70M	-794.40M	-426.10M
Financing Cash Flow	-875.90M	-876.40M	-112.00M	-960.00M	-655.60M	-311.60M

Packaging Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 198.09
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PKG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 198.09 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 203.79, below the 50-day MA of 209.94, and below the 200-day MA of 199.58, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.61 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PKG.

Packaging Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CCK	74 Outperform	$11.22B	12.04	34.10%	1.08%	2.94%	893.70%
PKG	73 Outperform	$17.74B	19.93	―	2.51%	7.30%	15.30%
AMCR	69 Neutral	$18.17B	24.59	7.44%	6.32%	28.41%	-35.50%
BALL	66 Neutral	$12.82B	17.89	11.74%	1.67%	2.87%	―
SW	63 Neutral	$18.90B	25.46	4.11%	4.43%	―	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
IP	42 Neutral	$19.30B	―	-4.65%	5.06%	25.91%	-316.41%

Packaging Corporate Events

Packaging Corporation of America Reports Solid Q3 2025 Results

Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) is a leading producer in the packaging and paper industry, known for its containerboard and uncoated freesheet paper products, operating ten mills and 93 corrugated products plants across North America.

PCA Reports Positive Earnings Amid Challenges

Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) recently held its earnings call, revealing a generally positive outlook for the quarter. The company reported increased net income, record cash flow, and a successful integration of the Greif acquisition. Despite these achievements, PCA acknowledged ongoing challenges in export sales volume, specific market segments, and rising operating costs.

Packaging Corporation Completes Acquisition of Greif’s Business

On August 31, 2025, Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) completed the acquisition of Greif’s containerboard business for approximately $1.8 billion. This strategic acquisition, funded through a combination of cash and new borrowings, expands PCA’s production capacity significantly with the addition of two containerboard mills and eight plants across the U.S., potentially enhancing its market position and operational capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (PKG) stock is a Buy with a $247.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Packaging stock, see the PKG Stock Forecast page.

Packaging Corp Announces $500M Senior Notes Offering

On August 11, 2025, Packaging Corporation of America priced a $500 million offering of 5.200% Senior Notes due 2035, with the issuance expected to close on August 15, 2025. The proceeds, estimated at $495.1 million after expenses, will be used to finance the acquisition of Greif, Inc.’s containerboard business. This strategic move aims to enhance the company’s market position, although the acquisition must be completed by June 30, 2026, or the notes will be subject to redemption.

The most recent analyst rating on (PKG) stock is a Hold with a $221.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Packaging stock, see the PKG Stock Forecast page.

Packaging Corporation Secures $1.6 Billion Credit Agreements

On July 31, 2025, Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) entered into two significant credit agreements, the Commercial Credit Agreement and the Farm Credit Agreement, totaling $1.6 billion. These agreements, which include unsecured term loan facilities and a revolving credit facility, are intended to support the company’s acquisition of Greif and replace an older credit agreement. The new credit arrangements are expected to enhance PCA’s financial flexibility and operational capabilities, with loans guaranteed by PCA’s material subsidiaries and subject to customary covenants.

The most recent analyst rating on (PKG) stock is a Hold with a $221.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Packaging stock, see the PKG Stock Forecast page.