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Ball
(NYSE:BALL)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$65.00
▲(1.44% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:09/09/26
BALL scores as a mid-range opportunity: solid recent operating performance and a strong, reaffirmed 2026 EPS/FCF framework support the outlook, but the overall score is held back by leverage and historically inconsistent free cash flow. Technical signals are currently soft, suggesting near-term momentum is not yet supportive despite a better longer-term trend.
Positive Factors
Broad-based volume and earnings growth
Growth across all regions, alongside faster operating earnings and EPS expansion, indicates improving demand and execution rather than reliance on one market. Continued volume gains can support plant utilization, strengthen customer relationships, and provide a durable base for earnings growth over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Meaningful leverage constrains flexibility
The sizable debt load remains a material constraint for a capital-intensive packaging manufacturer, even though equity has improved and leverage is below prior years. Interest obligations and refinancing needs could limit investment, shareholder returns, or resilience if demand, pricing, or operating performance weakens.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Broad-based volume and earnings growth
Growth across all regions, alongside faster operating earnings and EPS expansion, indicates improving demand and execution rather than reliance on one market. Continued volume gains can support plant utilization, strengthen customer relationships, and provide a durable base for earnings growth over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Ball Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue From Contracts with Customer
Tracks income from customer agreements, providing insight into the stability and predictability of revenue streams.
Tracks income from customer agreements, providing insight into the stability and predictability of revenue streams.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBall (BALL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$14.96B
Dividend Yield1.42%
Average Volume (3M)1.81M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.0
Beta (1Y)0.41
Revenue Growth16.86%
EPS Growth64.01%
CountryUS
Employees16,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.53
Shares Outstanding264,703,370
10 Day Avg. Volume2,097,518
30 Day Avg. Volume1,809,680
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.21
Price to Book (P/B)2.68
Price to Sales (P/S)1.10
P/FCF Ratio18.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$72.50Price Target Upside13.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)4.02
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.03B
Ball Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ball Corporation serves as a global provider of aluminum packaging solutions for a broad spectrum of industries, including beverages, personal care items, and household goods. Its extensive reach covers the United States, Brazil, and numerous inte...
How the Company Makes Money
Ball makes money mainly by manufacturing and selling aluminum packaging—especially beverage cans—under multi-year supply relationships with beverage producers and brand owners. Its core revenue stream comes from high-volume sales of aluminum bever...
Ball Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive view: company-wide volume and earnings growth (global volumes +4.3%, comparable operating earnings +7.7%, EPS +14.4%), strong regional outperformance in South America and steady EMEA momentum aided by Benepack, clear capital return and free cash flow targets (> $900M FCF, ~$800M returned to shareholders), and Millersburg beginning commercial production with a planned 2027 ramp. Offsetting items include near-term operational friction from tight capacity (especially North America), $35M of Millersburg start-up costs impacting margins in 2026, Benepack integration work that is not yet fully accretive, and sensitivity to aluminum costs. Overall, positives (volume, EPS, cash returns, strategic positioning) materially outweigh the near-term operational headwinds.Positive Updates
Global Volume Growth
Shipped beverage can volumes increased 4.3% year-over-year in Q2 2026 (sixth consecutive quarter of growth), with growth in each region (North & Central America: low single digits; EMEA: mid-single digits; South America: mid-teens).
Negative Updates
North & Central America Operating Pressure
Segment comparable operating earnings declined 2.4% year-over-year in Q2 2026 despite low-single-digit volume growth, reflecting higher costs and approximately $5 million of Millersburg start-up costs included in the quarter; full-year start-up costs expected to be ~$35 million (roughly $30 million in H2).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Global Volume Growth
Shipped beverage can volumes increased 4.3% year-over-year in Q2 2026 (sixth consecutive quarter of growth), with growth in each region (North & Central America: low single digits; EMEA: mid-single digits; South America: mid-teens).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ball reaffirmed its 2026 framework targeting 10%+ comparable diluted EPS growth and >$900M of free cash flow, noting Q2 global shipped beverage can volumes were +4.3% YoY, comparable operating earnings +7.7% and comparable diluted EPS +14.4%; it expects full‑year interest expense of about $310M, a comparable effective tax rate slightly above 23%, capex roughly in line with GAAP depreciation & amortization, and adjusted corporate undistributed costs of about $175M, with year‑end net debt/EBITDA around 2.7x. Management will repurchase at least $600M of shares and pay roughly $200M of dividends for about $800M of total shareholder returns in 2026 (≈$100M repurchased in H1), and reiterated ~$35M of Millersburg start‑up costs for 2026 (≈$5M in H1, ~$30M in H2) with commercial production started and a full ramp expected in 2027.Ball Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
71
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 14.32B | 13.16B | 11.80B | 12.02B | 15.29B | 13.93B |
| Gross Profit | 2.35B | 1.96B | 1.84B | 1.72B | 1.75B | 2.03B |
| EBITDA | 2.14B | 2.09B | 1.46B | 1.76B | 1.88B | 1.98B |
| Net Income | 946.00M | 912.00M | 4.01B | 707.00M | 719.00M | 878.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 20.11B | 19.52B | 17.63B | 19.30B | 19.91B | 19.71B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 491.00M | 1.21B | 893.00M | 695.00M | 548.00M | 563.00M |
| Total Debt | 7.22B | 7.01B | 6.02B | 8.57B | 9.40B | 8.16B |
| Total Liabilities | 14.34B | 14.10B | 11.70B | 15.47B | 16.38B | 16.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.75B | 5.42B | 5.86B | 3.77B | 3.46B | 3.63B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 827.00M | 788.00M | -369.00M | 818.00M | -1.37B | 34.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.43B | 1.26B | 115.00M | 1.86B | 283.00M | 1.76B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -702.00M | -656.00M | 5.00B | -1.05B | -768.00M | -1.64B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -557.00M | -344.00M | -4.79B | -662.00M | 485.00M | -894.00M |
Ball Technical Analysis
Negative
64.08
Price Trends
61.64
Negative
59.91
Negative
59.72
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.54
Positive
29.54
Positive
14.60
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BALL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 64.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 59.11, above the 50-day MA of 61.64, and above the 200-day MA of 59.72, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.54 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.60 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BALL.
Ball Risk Analysis
Ball disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ball reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ball Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $11.55B | 15.19 | 26.54% | 1.24% | 10.76% | 45.91% | |
65 Neutral | $19.33B | 17.51 | 9.45% | 6.21% | 56.62% | 32.08% | |
64 Neutral | $14.96B | 15.97 | 17.04% | 1.42% | 16.86% | 64.01% | |
63 Neutral | $3.67B | 13.67 | 11.69% | 2.38% | 8.43% | -9.80% | |
62 Neutral | $2.62B | 85.71 | -6.61% | 9.01% | 14.53% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
49 Neutral | $868.18M | -0.74 | -107.76% | 1.75% | -1.85% | -352.80% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
BALL
Ball
56.37
6.81
13.75%
CCK
Crown Holdings
106.05
10.80
11.34%
OI
O-I Glass
5.60
-7.34
-56.72%
SLGN
Silgan Holdings
34.87
-7.01
-16.74%
AMCR
Amcor
41.86
3.30
8.57%
AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging
4.44
0.88
24.86%
Ball Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Ball Corporation Adds Two Experienced Leaders to Board
Positive
Sep 9, 2026
On September 8, 2026, Ball Corporation’s board elected Darlene J. Nicosia, CEO of contract packaged food manufacturer Maker’s Pride, and Sherry L. Buck, former CFO of W.L. Gore Associates, to join the company’s board effective S...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.