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Greif Class A (GEF)
NYSE:GEF
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Greif Class A (GEF) AI Stock Analysis

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GEF

Greif Class A

(NYSE:GEF)

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Neutral 65 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$62.00
▲(8.22% Upside)
Greif Class A's overall score reflects strong strategic repositioning and cost efficiency as highlighted in the earnings call, along with an attractive valuation. However, declining revenue and cash flow issues, coupled with bearish technical indicators, present significant risks.
Positive Factors
Cost Optimization
The successful cost optimization program enhances profitability and operational efficiency, providing a durable competitive advantage in cost management.
Debt Reduction
Debt reduction strengthens the balance sheet, lowering financial risk and increasing flexibility for strategic investments and growth.
Strong Cash Flow
Robust cash flow growth supports ongoing operations, debt servicing, and shareholder returns, ensuring long-term financial stability.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue Growth
Persistent revenue decline indicates challenges in market demand, potentially impacting future profitability and growth prospects.
High Leverage
High leverage can constrain financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to economic downturns, affecting long-term stability.
Market Demand Challenges
Ongoing market demand challenges may pressure pricing and volumes, hindering revenue growth and operational performance.

Greif Class A (GEF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Greif Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGreif Class A (GEF) is a global leader in industrial packaging solutions, specializing in the production of steel, plastic, and fiber drums, as well as intermediate bulk containers (IBCs) and other packaging products. The company serves a diverse range of sectors including chemicals, food, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods, offering products that ensure the safe and efficient transport and storage of various materials. In addition to packaging, Greif provides services such as packaging design and logistics support, enhancing its value proposition to customers worldwide.
How the Company Makes MoneyGreif generates revenue primarily through the sale of its packaging products, which include steel, plastic, and fiber containers. The company has a diversified revenue model, with key revenue streams coming from the sale of new containers, reconditioned containers, and the provision of packaging-related services. Greif also benefits from long-term partnerships with major customers in various industries, which provide a steady stream of orders and foster customer loyalty. Furthermore, the company strategically focuses on operational efficiency and innovation in product development, enabling it to maintain competitive pricing and enhance profitability.

Greif Class A Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
Next Earnings Date:Mar 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call reflected a company making significant strides in strategic repositioning and cost efficiency, with strong financial health and proactive measures to enhance shareholder value. However, ongoing challenges in market demand and specific segment weaknesses tempered the overall positive achievements.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Successful Divestitures and Debt Reduction
Finalized the sale of the land management business, generating $462 million used to reduce debt, resulting in a pro forma leverage ratio under 1x.
Net Promoter Score Improvement
Reported a Net Promoter Score of 72, improving by 3 points from last year, indicating enhanced customer satisfaction.
Cost Optimization Program Success
Achieved $50 million in run rate savings, more than double the full year commitment, with an increase in anticipated cumulative cost savings for 2026 and 2027.
Strong Balance Sheet and Share Repurchase Plan
Entered fiscal 2026 with a strong balance sheet and an open market repurchase plan of approximately $150 million.
Q4 EBITDA and Cash Flow Growth
Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $99 million, a 7.4% increase year-over-year, with free cash flow improving by over 24.3%.
Negative Updates
Volume Declines in Key Segments
Experienced volume declines in Durable Metals (6.6%) and Sustainable Fiber (7.7%), impacting overall performance.
Fiber Drums and Industrial Market Softness
Fiber drum volumes were down double digits, reflecting continued weakness in the chemical and industrial markets.
Impact of Economic Downturn and Market Uncertainties
Macroeconomic challenges, including trade uncertainties and demand softness, continue to pressure pricing and volumes.
Company Guidance
During the Greif Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided guidance indicating a strong strategic shift and financial health improvement. The recent sale of their containerboard business and the land management business generated $462 million, reducing their pro forma leverage ratio to below 1x. Greif is focusing on target markets like Customized Polymer Solutions, with a Net Promoter Score of 72, reflecting improved customer satisfaction. The company reported a 50% free cash flow conversion rate for 2026, with adjusted EBITDA for Q4 at $99 million, up 7.4% year-over-year, and EBITDA margins expanding by 140 basis points. The cost optimization program exceeded expectations with $50 million in savings for fiscal '25, leading to an increased cumulative savings commitment of $80-$90 million for fiscal '26 and $120 million by fiscal '27. Greif remains poised for growth with a strong balance sheet, intending to repurchase $150 million of stock and planning a 2% annual repurchase of outstanding equity.

Greif Class A Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Greif Class A shows stable financials with strong cash flow generation and healthy profit margins. However, challenges include declining revenue growth and high leverage, which could impact future profitability and financial stability.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Greif Class A shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The company has experienced a decline in revenue growth rate by 5.79% in the TTM period, indicating challenges in maintaining sales momentum. However, the gross profit margin remains stable at 20.72%, and the EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 8.59% and 13.44%, respectively. The net profit margin has decreased to 3.86%, reflecting pressure on profitability. Overall, while the company maintains decent margins, the declining revenue growth is a concern.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet of Greif Class A indicates a relatively high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.44, suggesting significant leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is moderate at 10.25%, showing a reasonable return on shareholders' investments. The equity ratio stands at 32.58%, indicating a balanced capital structure. While the company is managing its equity well, the high leverage poses a potential risk.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Greif Class A demonstrates strong cash flow management with a significant free cash flow growth rate of 58.88% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.27, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.58, indicating efficient cash conversion. The robust growth in free cash flow is a positive sign, although the coverage ratios suggest room for improvement in cash flow efficiency.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.20B4.29B5.45B5.22B6.35B5.56B
Gross Profit1.11B950.73M1.07B1.15B1.29B1.09B
EBITDA640.20M432.76M715.80M824.50M839.20M845.70M
Net Income190.00M916.36M268.80M359.20M376.70M390.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.74B5.77B6.65B5.96B5.46B5.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments285.20M256.70M197.70M180.90M147.10M124.60M
Total Debt2.94B1.39B3.07B2.54B2.17B2.52B
Total Liabilities4.41B2.72B4.40B3.85B3.65B4.22B
Stockholders Equity2.19B2.91B2.08B1.95B1.76B1.51B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow338.10M-85.20M169.50M435.90M474.50M248.70M
Operating Cash Flow490.50M58.60M356.00M649.50M657.50M396.00M
Investing Cash Flow-24.70M1.68B-658.30M-670.20M-28.20M46.80M
Financing Cash Flow-405.70M-1.73B324.30M69.70M-531.00M-422.90M

Greif Class A Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price57.29
Price Trends
50DMA
59.69
Negative
100DMA
62.66
Negative
200DMA
59.21
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.85
Positive
RSI
40.33
Neutral
STOCH
29.61
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 57.29 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 58.46, below the 50-day MA of 59.69, and below the 200-day MA of 59.21, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.85 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GEF.

Greif Class A Risk Analysis

Greif Class A disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Greif Class A reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Greif Class A Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
$5.26B13.3040.42%2.24%-1.22%-0.76%
66
Neutral
$4.21B13.3714.58%2.03%11.10%6.54%
65
Neutral
$2.74B20.822.08%3.81%-17.63%208.81%
63
Neutral
$3.95B4,130.936.39%5.14%8.31%-99.39%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
56
Neutral
$2.01B11.66%10.34%87.86%
54
Neutral
$1.82B-10.92%-2.82%65.31%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GEF
Greif Class A
57.52
-6.70
-10.43%
OI
O-I Glass
13.20
0.39
3.04%
SEE
Sealed Air
36.91
2.20
6.34%
SLGN
Silgan Holdings
39.35
-13.35
-25.33%
SON
Sonoco Products
40.45
-8.44
-17.26%
AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging
3.32
0.08
2.47%

Greif Class A Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Greif Completes Sale of Containerboard Business
Positive
Sep 2, 2025

On September 2, 2025, Greif, Inc. announced the completion of the sale of its containerboard business to Packaging Corporation of America. This strategic divestment is expected to enhance Greif’s earnings power, capital efficiency, and accelerate debt reduction, while prompting an adjustment in its 2025 full-year guidance to reflect the exclusion of the containerboard business’s performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEF) stock is a Hold with a $71.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greif Class A stock, see the GEF Stock Forecast page.

Greif Class A Earnings Call: Strategic Gains Amid Challenges
Sep 1, 2025

The recent earnings call for Greif Class A painted a picture of strategic progress and financial resilience, despite some ongoing challenges. The company has made significant strides in divestments and cost optimization, leading to improved cash flow and margins. However, certain markets and segments continue to face difficulties, with volume softness impacting overall performance.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Greif Class A Divests Containerboard Business for $1.8B
Neutral
Aug 29, 2025

On August 26, 2025, Greif announced the retirement of Gary R. Martz, Executive Vice President, General Counsel, and Secretary, effective October 1, 2025, with full retirement on November 30, 2025. Dennis Hoffman will succeed him. Additionally, Greif reported a 49.6% decrease in net income for the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year, primarily due to a prior gain from the divestiture of Delta Petroleum Company. The company is divesting its containerboard business for $1.8 billion, expected to close on August 31, 2025, and has signed an agreement to sell its timberlands business for $462 million. Greif continues to focus on cost optimization and shareholder returns, with a notable increase in adjusted free cash flow and a reduction in total debt.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEF) stock is a Buy with a $76.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greif Class A stock, see the GEF Stock Forecast page.

Greif, Inc. Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results
Aug 29, 2025

Greif, Inc., a global leader in industrial packaging products and services, operates in the industrial packaging sector, providing tailored solutions to various industries worldwide.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Greif Class A Sells Soterra Timberland for $462 Million
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

On August 5, 2025, Greif, Inc. announced a definitive agreement to sell its Soterra timberland business to Molpus Woodlands Group for $462 million. This transaction, involving over 173,000 acres of timberlands in the Southeastern United States, aligns with Greif’s strategic focus on higher-margin, less cyclical markets and is expected to close around the company’s fiscal year-end. The sale will enable Greif to enhance its investment capabilities and position itself for long-term success, while Molpus aims to integrate these assets into its existing portfolio for sustainable forest management and competitive market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEF) stock is a Buy with a $85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greif Class A stock, see the GEF Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 07, 2025