Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.31B
• Dividend Yield: 10.36%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.07M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.75
• Revenue Growth: 8.39%
• EPS Growth: 72.18%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,300
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 597,699,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,498,529
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,072,106
• PEG Ratio: 9.62
• Price to Book (P/B): -12.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.37
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.84
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.76
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.22
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.94
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.67
• 1Y Price Target: $4.41
• Price Target Upside: 14.25% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.00 ▲(3.63% Upside)

Ardagh Metal Packaging's overall score is driven by strong earnings performance and improved guidance, particularly in the Americas. However, significant financial risks due to high leverage and negative equity, along with valuation concerns, weigh on the score. Technical indicators suggest potential resistance, and challenges in Europe further impact the outlook.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The strong revenue growth indicates robust demand and effective market positioning, enhancing the company's ability to capture market share and sustain long-term growth.

Cash Flow Generation

Strong cash flow generation supports operational flexibility and strategic investments, ensuring the company can navigate economic fluctuations effectively.

Upgraded Guidance

Upgraded guidance reflects management's confidence in sustained operational improvements and market conditions, supporting long-term strategic goals.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage poses financial risks, limiting flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns, which could impact long-term stability.

European Segment Challenges

Challenges in Europe highlight regional operational risks, potentially affecting overall profitability and requiring strategic adjustments to mitigate impacts.

Profitability Concerns

Decreased profitability despite revenue growth suggests rising costs and operational inefficiencies, which could hinder long-term financial health if unresolved.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. supplies metal beverage cans in Europe, the United States, and Brazil. Its products are used in various end-use categories, including beer, carbonated soft drinks, energy drinks, hard seltzers, juices, pre-mixed cocktails, teas, sparkling waters, and wine. The company serves beverage producers. The company is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. is a subsidiary of Ardagh Group S.A.

How the Company Makes Money

Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) generates revenue primarily through the manufacturing and sale of metal beverage cans. The company's key revenue streams include long-term contracts with major beverage companies, which provide a stable and recurring income. AMBP benefits from economies of scale, allowing it to produce cans efficiently and cost-effectively. Additionally, strategic partnerships with beverage brands enable AMBP to secure a significant market share and enhance its competitive edge. The company's focus on sustainability and innovation further strengthens its market position, attracting environmentally conscious customers and fostering long-term client relationships.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ardagh Metal Packaging shows positive revenue growth and profitability improvements. However, the balance sheet's high leverage and negative equity present significant financial risk. Cash flow generation is strong, but attention to improving margins and strengthening equity is crucial for long-term stability.

Income Statement

Ardagh Metal Packaging shows a positive trajectory in revenue growth, with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue of $5.23 billion, up from $4.91 billion annually, indicating a 6.59% growth rate. The gross profit margin improved to 12.25% in TTM from 12.84% annually, while the net profit margin turned positive at 0.13%, recovering from a negative margin. However, EBITDA margin slightly decreased to 11.41% from 12.82%. Profitability improvements are seen, but maintaining margin expansion remains a challenge.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet indicates high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio that is not calculable due to negative equity in TTM. Stockholders' equity has turned negative, reflecting potential financial instability. The equity ratio is negative due to liabilities exceeding assets. These factors highlight significant financial risk and the need for strengthening equity to improve financial health.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals consistent free cash flow generation, with a positive free cash flow of $285 million in TTM. However, free cash flow growth is moderate at 8.37% compared to the previous period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is influenced by low net income, suggesting caution in assessing cash flow sustainability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.23B	4.91B	4.81B	4.69B	4.05B	3.45B
Gross Profit	641.00M	630.00M	474.00M	526.00M	616.00M	548.00M
EBITDA	597.00M	629.00M	508.00M	747.00M	281.00M	542.00M
Net Income	7.00M	-3.00M	-50.00M	237.00M	-210.00M	111.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.49B	5.46B	5.67B	5.87B	5.33B	4.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	256.00M	602.00M	434.00M	550.00M	460.00M	254.00M
Total Debt	4.06B	3.90B	3.73B	3.59B	2.89B	2.83B
Total Liabilities	5.81B	5.60B	5.56B	5.41B	5.04B	4.21B
Stockholders Equity	-326.00M	-142.00M	100.00M	455.00M	286.00M	48.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	285.00M	263.00M	237.00M	-391.00M	-229.00M	66.00M
Operating Cash Flow	454.00M	450.00M	616.00M	205.00M	458.00M	334.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-162.00M	-179.00M	-378.00M	-595.00M	-691.00M	-268.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-278.00M	-81.00M	-348.00M	499.00M	454.00M	-98.00M

Ardagh Metal Packaging Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 3.86
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMBP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.86 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.64, above the 50-day MA of 3.85, and above the 200-day MA of 3.30, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.20 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMBP.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CCK	72 Outperform	11.02B	19.87	19.23%	1.09%	2.07%	32.37%
BALL	68 Neutral	13.26B	22.74	68.37%	1.64%	-3.12%	0.00%
MYE	68 Neutral	619.13M	62.74	3.49%	3.26%	1.11%	-74.94%
SON	65 Neutral	4.57B	-65.14	17.10%	4.53%	0.90%	-118.86%
SLGN	61 Neutral	4.58B	15.20	13.59%	1.85%	5.49%	-1.01%
AMBP	58 Neutral	$2.31B	―	-69.06%	10.36%	8.39%	72.18%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%

Ardagh Metal Packaging Corporate Events

Ardagh Group Announces Recapitalization Agreement

On July 28, 2025, Ardagh Group S.A., the parent company of Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A., announced a comprehensive recapitalization transaction with its major financial stakeholders. This agreement will see the holders of senior unsecured notes become the majority shareholders of Ardagh Group, with the transaction expected to complete by September 30, 2025. The recapitalization does not affect the listing or capital structure of Ardagh Metal Packaging, which remains a subsidiary of Ardagh Group.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. released its quarterly financial report for the three and six months ending June 30, 2025. The report highlights a revenue increase to $1,455 million for the three months ended June 30, 2025, compared to $1,259 million in the same period in 2024. Despite the revenue growth, the company’s profit for the period was $5 million, reflecting a decrease from the previous year’s $10 million, due to increased costs and exceptional items. This financial performance indicates a challenging operating environment, impacting the company’s profitability despite higher sales.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results with Upgraded EBITDA Guidance

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. announced its second-quarter 2025 results, reporting a 16% increase in revenue to $1,455 million compared to the same period last year. The company experienced a significant 18% growth in Adjusted EBITDA, driven by strong volume growth in the Americas and a resilient business model despite macroeconomic uncertainties. The company upgraded its full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $705-$725 million, reflecting improved performance and favorable currency movements. The announcement highlights the company’s robust financial position, with a strong liquidity of $680 million and a reduced net debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Declares Quarterly Dividend

On July 24, 2025, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. announced that its board of directors has approved a quarterly interim dividend of $0.10 per ordinary share. This dividend is scheduled for payment on August 19, 2025, to shareholders recorded by August 7, 2025. This decision reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders, potentially impacting its financial positioning and stakeholder relations positively.