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Ardagh Metal Packaging
(NYSE:AMBP)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▼(-14.93% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/22/26
AMBP scores in the mid-range primarily because improving profitability and strong free cash flow are weighed down by a highly leveraged, negative-equity balance sheet that raises refinancing and downside risk. The earnings call adds support via upgraded EBITDA guidance and positive European volume outlook, while technicals are neutral and valuation remains mixed (high yield but very high P/E).
Positive Factors
European Growth and Capacity Expansion
European shipments, demand and market share are improving, while new U.K. and Spain lines should add capacity where management expects sustained growth. These investments can deepen customer relationships, support higher volumes and create additional EBITDA from 2028 onward.
Negative Factors
High Leverage and Refinancing Risk
The heavy debt burden and negative equity constrain financial flexibility and leave less capacity to absorb weaker volumes or rising costs. Upcoming refinancing at potentially higher rates could increase interest expense, slow deleveraging and reduce funds available for growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
European Growth and Capacity Expansion
European shipments, demand and market share are improving, while new U.K. and Spain lines should add capacity where management expects sustained growth. These investments can deepen customer relationships, support higher volumes and create additional EBITDA from 2028 onward.
Read all positive factors
Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.74B
Dividend Yield8.71%
Average Volume (3M)2.07M
Price to Earnings (P/E)88.6
Beta (1Y)0.73
Revenue Growth14.53%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees6,500
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.05
Shares Outstanding597,706,300
10 Day Avg. Volume2,658,044
30 Day Avg. Volume2,066,053
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.76
Price to Book (P/B)-3.59
Price to Sales (P/S)0.45
P/FCF Ratio9.25
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.44
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.12
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.22
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.07Price Target Upside-4.13% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.16B
Ardagh Metal Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a metal beverage can company in Europe, North America, and Brazil. It offers a range of beverage cans for use in sparkling water, soft drinks, beer, wine, flavored malt bever...
How the Company Makes Money
AMBP primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling metal beverage packaging—principally aluminum beverage cans and can ends—to beverage companies under supply agreements and customer purchase orders. Revenue is generated on a per-unit basis f...
Ardagh Metal Packaging Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 22, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive. AMP reported 2% global shipment growth, adjusted EBITDA above guidance, strong European performance, resilient demand, improved leverage and an upgraded 2026 EBITDA outlook. The main challenges were lower Americas EBITDA, a 5% Brazilian shipment decline, inflation and coatings-related cost pressure, higher planned 2027 growth CapEx and the prospect of more expensive refinancing. Highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong Q3 Global Performance
Global beverage can shipments increased by 2% in the third quarter, and adjusted EBITDA was $213 million, exceeding guidance. The company upgraded its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to between $785 million and $795 million.
Negative Updates
Americas Adjusted EBITDA Decline
Americas adjusted EBITDA decreased by 3% year over year to $122 million. Lower volumes, higher operations and overhead costs, and lower input-cost recovery more than offset the benefit from favorable category mix.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q3 Global Performance
Global beverage can shipments increased by 2% in the third quarter, and adjusted EBITDA was $213 million, exceeding guidance. The company upgraded its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to between $785 million and $795 million.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For full year 2026, AMP expects to at least meet its guidance for approximately 3% volume growth in Europe and has upgraded adjusted EBITDA guidance to between $785 million and $795 million; its full year 2026 cash flow guidance is total CapEx of $240 million, cash interest of $220 million, lease principal repayments of approximately $120 million, cash tax of approximately $30 million and a small outflow in working capital. For 2027, AMP expects Europe volume growth in the range of 3% to 4%, North America shipments growth at least in line with the industry, moderate shipments growth in Brazil in the fourth quarter, moderate volume growth in Brazil, and moderate year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth at constant currency; total growth CapEx is expected to increase from $90 million in 2026 to approximately $250 million in 2027 before returning to a more normalized level in 2028. For 2027, AMP is over 80% hedged for energy needs and over 70% covered for 2028, and it expects the two European growth investments to drive adjusted EBITDA growth in 2028 and beyond.Ardagh Metal Packaging Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.99B | 5.50B | 4.91B | 4.81B | 4.69B | 4.05B |
| Gross Profit | 656.00M | 559.00M | 630.00M | 474.00M | 526.00M | 616.00M |
| EBITDA | 744.00M | 676.00M | 629.00M | 508.00M | 743.00M | 281.00M |
| Net Income | 41.00M | 11.00M | -3.00M | -50.00M | 237.00M | -210.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.57B | 5.68B | 5.46B | 5.67B | 5.87B | 5.33B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 189.00M | 522.00M | 602.00M | 434.00M | 555.00M | 560.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.34B | 4.42B | 3.90B | 3.73B | 3.59B | 2.90B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.32B | 6.35B | 5.60B | 5.56B | 5.41B | 5.04B |
| Stockholders Equity | -758.00M | -683.00M | -142.00M | 100.00M | 455.00M | 286.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 297.00M | 265.00M | 263.00M | 237.00M | -391.00M | -229.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 495.00M | 449.00M | 450.00M | 616.00M | 205.00M | 458.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -198.00M | -184.00M | -179.00M | -378.00M | -595.00M | -691.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -365.00M | -374.00M | -81.00M | -348.00M | 499.00M | 454.00M |
Ardagh Metal Packaging Technical Analysis
Positive
5.29
Price Trends
4.73
Positive
4.60
Positive
4.32
Positive
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Negative
60.06
Neutral
69.34
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMBP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.29 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.47, above the 50-day MA of 4.73, and above the 200-day MA of 4.32, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMBP.
Ardagh Metal Packaging Risk Analysis
Ardagh Metal Packaging disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ardagh Metal Packaging reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ardagh Metal Packaging Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $12.64B | 16.12 | 27.10% | 1.13% | 13.83% | -11.08% | |
68 Neutral | $16.98B | 18.17 | 17.04% | 1.25% | 16.86% | 64.01% | |
67 Neutral | $4.22B | 15.28 | 11.69% | 2.13% | 8.43% | -9.80% | |
65 Neutral | $20.68B | 16.91 | 9.31% | 5.74% | 56.62% | 32.08% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | $5.03B | -24.15 | -6.12% | 4.20% | 12.01% | ― | |
54 Neutral | $2.74B | 88.61 | -6.61% | 8.46% | 14.53% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging
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1.08
29.70%
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50.27
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7.49
19.31%
Ardagh Metal Packaging Corporate Events
Ardagh Metal Packaging Declares $0.10 Quarterly Interim Dividend
Oct 22, 2026
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A., a major producer of sustainable metal beverage cans, operates 23 plants across nine countries and serves brand owners globally, particularly in Europe and the Americas. The business, part of Ardagh Group, reported arou...
Ardagh Metal Packaging Posts Higher Revenue and Earnings in Q3 2026 Filing
Oct 22, 2026
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. reported unaudited consolidated interim results for the three and nine months ended Sept. 30, 2026, filed with the U.S. SEC on Oct. 22, 2026. The Form 6-K includes detailed income statements, balance sheet data, cash fl...
Ardagh Metal Packaging Lifts 2026 Guidance After Strong Q3 and Adds New Can Lines in Europe
Oct 22, 2026
Ardagh Metal Packaging reported third-quarter 2026 results on October 22, showing revenue up 19% year-on-year to $1.69 billion and profit rising to $44 million, with Adjusted EBITDA edging 2% higher to $213 million and global beverage can shipment...
Ardagh Metal Packaging Flags Parent’s Sales Process Update in SEC Filing
Oct 15, 2026
On October 15, 2026, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission noting a press release by its controlling shareholder, Ardagh Holdings S.A., regarding an update on the latter’s ongoing sales...
Ardagh Metal Packaging Flags Parent Ardagh Holdings’ Sales Process Update in SEC Filing
Sep 16, 2026
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A., a major producer of recyclable metal beverage cans, has filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for September 2026. The filing, signed on September 16, 2026 by chief executive Oliver Graham, i...
Ardagh Holdings Explores Potential Sale of Ardagh Metal Packaging
Aug 13, 2026
On Aug. 13, 2026, Ardagh Metal Packaging disclosed that controlling shareholder Ardagh Holdings filed an amended Schedule 13D and instructed advisers to prepare for a potential sale of some or all of its equity interest in the can maker. The proce...
Ardagh Metal Packaging Lifts 2026 Earnings Guidance After Strong Q2
Jul 23, 2026
Ardagh Metal Packaging reported that for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue rose 18% year on year to $1.713 billion and adjusted EBITDA increased 14% to $240 million, with profit for the period improving to $35 million and adjusted earnings ...
Ardagh Metal Packaging Declares $0.10 Quarterly Interim Dividend
Jul 23, 2026
On July 23, 2026, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. announced that its board had declared a quarterly interim dividend of $0.10 per ordinary share. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on September 24, 2026 to shareholders of record as of September 10, ...
Ardagh Metal Packaging Files Q2 2026 Interim Results on Form 6-K
Jul 23, 2026
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on July 23, 2026, furnishing its unaudited consolidated interim financial statements for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. The filing include...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.