Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.13B
• Dividend Yield: 11.2%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.33M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.93
• Revenue Growth: 10.34%
• EPS Growth: 87.86%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,300
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 597,699,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,742,583
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,329,666
• PEG Ratio: 9.62
• Price to Book (P/B): -12.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.37
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.84
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.89
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.15
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.03
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.87
• 1Y Price Target: $4.33
• Price Target Upside: 21.29% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.00 ▲(12.04% Upside)

Ardagh Metal Packaging's overall score is driven by moderate financial performance and technical indicators, with a strong earnings call providing some optimism. However, high financial leverage and profitability challenges weigh heavily, alongside valuation concerns due to a negative P/E ratio.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth in key markets like Europe and the Americas indicates robust demand and effective market penetration, supporting long-term business expansion.

Sustainability Initiatives

Significant progress in sustainability enhances brand reputation and aligns with global trends towards eco-friendly practices, potentially increasing market share.

Cash Flow Generation

Robust cash flow generation enhances financial flexibility, allowing for reinvestment in growth opportunities and debt reduction, strengthening long-term financial health.

Negative Factors

High Financial Leverage

Significant reliance on debt financing poses risks to financial stability, potentially limiting strategic options and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns.

Operational Challenges

Operational disruptions can hinder production efficiency and affect customer satisfaction, potentially impacting long-term growth and profitability.

Weakness in Key Markets

Weak performance in significant market segments like the beer category could limit revenue growth and affect market positioning, challenging future expansion.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) is a leading global supplier of sustainable metal packaging solutions, primarily serving the beverage, food, and personal care sectors. With a commitment to innovation and sustainability, AMBP manufactures a diverse range of aluminum and steel containers, including beverage cans, food cans, and specialty containers. The company operates numerous production facilities across multiple continents, leveraging advanced technologies to ensure high-quality products that meet the evolving needs of its customers.

How the Company Makes Money

AMBP generates revenue through the production and sale of metal packaging products to various industries, including beverage, food, and personal care. Its key revenue streams include the sale of aluminum and steel cans, which are in high demand due to the growing trend towards sustainable packaging solutions. The company benefits from long-term contracts with major clients in the beverage industry, ensuring a steady flow of income. Additionally, AMBP invests in research and development to create innovative packaging solutions, enhancing its market competitiveness. The company's strategic partnerships with global beverage brands and its focus on sustainability also contribute to its earnings by aligning with consumer preferences for eco-friendly products, thereby driving sales and enhancing brand loyalty.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ardagh Metal Packaging shows positive revenue growth and profitability improvements, but high leverage and negative equity present substantial financial risk. Strong cash flow generation is a positive, but margin expansion and equity strengthening are crucial for stability.

Income Statement

Ardagh Metal Packaging shows a positive trajectory in revenue growth, with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue of $5.23 billion, up from $4.91 billion annually, indicating a 6.59% growth rate. The gross profit margin improved to 12.25% in TTM from 12.84% annually, while the net profit margin turned positive at 0.13%, recovering from a negative margin. However, EBITDA margin slightly decreased to 11.41% from 12.82%. Profitability improvements are seen, but maintaining margin expansion remains a challenge.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet indicates high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio that is not calculable due to negative equity in TTM. Stockholders' equity has turned negative, reflecting potential financial instability. The equity ratio is negative due to liabilities exceeding assets. These factors highlight significant financial risk and the need for strengthening equity to improve financial health.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals consistent free cash flow generation, with a positive free cash flow of $285 million in TTM. However, free cash flow growth is moderate at 8.37% compared to the previous period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is influenced by low net income, suggesting caution in assessing cash flow sustainability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.35B	4.91B	4.81B	4.69B	4.05B	3.45B
Gross Profit	615.00M	630.00M	474.00M	526.00M	616.00M	548.00M
EBITDA	625.00M	629.00M	508.00M	747.00M	281.00M	542.00M
Net Income	16.00M	-3.00M	-50.00M	237.00M	-210.00M	111.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.46B	5.46B	5.67B	5.87B	5.33B	4.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	317.00M	602.00M	434.00M	550.00M	460.00M	254.00M
Total Debt	4.09B	3.90B	3.73B	3.59B	2.89B	2.83B
Total Liabilities	5.79B	5.60B	5.56B	5.41B	5.04B	4.21B
Stockholders Equity	-342.00M	-142.00M	100.00M	455.00M	286.00M	48.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	289.00M	263.00M	237.00M	-391.00M	-229.00M	66.00M
Operating Cash Flow	466.00M	450.00M	616.00M	205.00M	458.00M	334.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-178.00M	-179.00M	-378.00M	-595.00M	-691.00M	-268.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-365.00M	-81.00M	-348.00M	499.00M	454.00M	-98.00M

Ardagh Metal Packaging Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.57
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMBP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.57 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.72, below the 50-day MA of 3.73, and above the 200-day MA of 3.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.89 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AMBP.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CCK	―	$11.21B	12.03	34.10%	1.04%	2.94%	893.70%
MYE	―	$648.28M	23.27	9.92%	3.10%	0.26%	78.05%
SLGN	―	$4.13B	13.12	14.58%	2.05%	11.10%	6.55%
BALL	―	$12.79B	21.95	9.59%	1.67%	-3.12%	―
SON	―	$4.00B	4,182.47	6.39%	5.18%	8.31%	-99.39%
Sector *	―	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
AMBP	―	$2.13B	―	―	11.20%	10.34%	87.86%

Ardagh Metal Packaging Corporate Events

Ardagh Metal Packaging Updates on Recapitalization Transaction

On October 27 and 28, 2025, Ardagh Metal Packaging announced updates regarding its consent solicitations tied to a recapitalization transaction initiated by its parent company, Ardagh Group S.A. The company received sufficient consents to proceed with amendments for certain notes, although it is reopening solicitations for some, while proposing alternative implementations for others. These developments are part of a broader strategy to manage its financial obligations without impacting its share listing or capital structure.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. released its quarterly report for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, showing a revenue increase to $4,151 million from $3,713 million in the previous year. The company reported a gross profit of $545 million, reflecting its strong market performance and operational efficiency. The report highlights the company’s continued growth and solid financial standing, which may positively impact its stakeholders and reinforce its position in the metal packaging industry.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results with Increased Revenue and EBITDA

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. reported its third-quarter 2025 results, showing a 9% increase in revenue to $1,428 million compared to the same period last year. The company achieved a 6% growth in Adjusted EBITDA, reaching $208 million, driven by increased shipments in Europe and North America, lower operational costs, and a favorable category mix. Despite a decline in global beverage can shipments by 1%, the company experienced growth in North America and Europe, offset by a significant decline in Brazil. Ardagh Metal Packaging has raised its full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $720-$735 million, reflecting confidence in its resilient business performance amid challenging macroeconomic conditions.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Announces Quarterly Dividend

On October 23, 2025, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. announced that its board of directors has approved a quarterly interim dividend of $0.10 per ordinary share, payable on November 13, 2025, to shareholders of record on November 3, 2025. This announcement underscores the company’s commitment to delivering shareholder value and reflects its stable financial performance, reinforcing its position as a key player in the sustainable packaging industry.

Ardagh Metal Packaging Launches Consent Solicitations for Recapitalization

On September 29, 2025, Ardagh Holdings USA Inc., Ardagh Packaging Finance plc, and ARD Finance S.A. announced the launch of consent solicitations to noteholders of their existing notes as part of a recapitalization transaction. This move follows an agreement made on July 28, 2025, between Ardagh Group S.A. and its largest financial stakeholders. The recapitalization transaction will not affect the listing or capital structure of Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A., which remains a subsidiary of Ardagh Group S.A.