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Ardagh Metal Packaging
(NYSE:AMBP)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
â–²(19.05% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:04/24/26
Overall score is held back primarily by high leverage/negative equity and fragile profitability despite positive free cash flow. Technicals remain weak (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting factors include a very high dividend yield and a constructive earnings update with reaffirmed EBITDA guidance and an EBITDA beat, though volume softness and cost risks persist.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Consistent positive free cash flow (TTM ~$209M) provides a durable internal funding source for maintenance and growth CapEx, dividends and debt servicing. Even with a recent ~21% FCF decline, ongoing cash generation supports liquidity and gives management options to reduce leverage or invest in efficiency.
Negative Factors
High Leverage and Negative Equity
Very high gross debt and a negative equity position materially constrain financial flexibility. Elevated leverage increases refinancing risk, heightens interest expense sensitivity and limits capacity for growth investment or aggressive deleveraging, leaving the business more exposed to cyclical downswings or cost shocks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Consistent positive free cash flow (TTM ~$209M) provides a durable internal funding source for maintenance and growth CapEx, dividends and debt servicing. Even with a recent ~21% FCF decline, ongoing cash generation supports liquidity and gives management options to reduce leverage or invest in efficiency.
Read all positive factors
Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.83B
Dividend Yield9.9%
Average Volume (3M)1.52M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.81
Revenue Growth13.86%
EPS Growth74.85%
CountryUS
Employees6,432
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPackaging & Containers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)>-0.01
Shares Outstanding597,706,300
10 Day Avg. Volume1,961,825
30 Day Avg. Volume1,516,454
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.76
Price to Book (P/B)-3.59
Price to Sales (P/S)0.45
P/FCF Ratio9.25
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.45
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.21
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.45
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.10
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.54Price Target Upside8.13% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.86B
Ardagh Metal Packaging Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a metal beverage can company in Europe, North America, and Brazil. It offers a range of beverage cans for use in sparkling water, soft drinks, beer, wine, flavored malt bever...
How the Company Makes Money
AMBP primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling aluminum beverage cans and can ends to beverage companies under supply agreements and customer purchase orders. Revenue is generated from (1) the sale of standard and specialty can formats (d...
Ardagh Metal Packaging Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple clear operational and financial positives — a Q1 adjusted EBITDA beat (15% YoY), strong European performance (revenue +18%, EBITDA +53%), robust liquidity and hedging, and notable Brazil growth (+14%). These positives were tempered by manageable but material headwinds: a global volume decline of 1%, North American shipment softness (-5%) from contract resets and supply-chain/weather disruptions, a mid-to-high single-digit million EBITDA drag in Q1, modestly higher reported leverage (5.7x), and potential H2 cost pressure (notably coatings). Management reaffirmed full-year guidance and emphasized hedging and pass-through mechanisms, signaling confidence in underlying resilience while acknowledging near-term uncertainty. Overall, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights given the beat vs. guidance, strong regional execution, liquidity and hedging protection.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Outperformance
Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $179 million, up 15% year-over-year and above the prior guidance range of $160M–$170M; full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance reaffirmed at $750M–$775M.
Negative Updates
Global Volume Decline
Global beverage can sales declined by 1% in Q1 versus the prior year, in line with expectations but signaling a modest contraction as AMP cycles a strong prior-year comparable.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Outperformance
Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $179 million, up 15% year-over-year and above the prior guidance range of $160M–$170M; full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance reaffirmed at $750M–$775M.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reaffirmed 2026 full‑year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $750–$775 million (Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $179 million, ahead of the prior guidance range of $160–$170 million and up 15% YoY), and set Q2 adjusted EBITDA at $210–$220 million (versus prior‑year Q2 of $212 million on a constant‑currency basis); AMP expects 2026 to be a transition year with a small volume decline (global beverage can sales down 1% in Q1, Europe shipments down 1%, North America down 5%, Brazil up 14%), Europe volume growth of ~3% for 2026, industry growth of low single‑digit percent, and a return to growth in 2027 at least in line with the industry; management flagged modest input‑cost increases in H2 (notably coatings) but noted strong energy hedges (>85% covered for 2026, >75% for 2027, >60% for 2028), a liquidity position of $488 million, net leverage of 5.7x (net debt / LTM adj. EBITDA; 5.5x prior year), and 2026 cash flow assumptions including total CapEx of ~$200 million, cash interest ~$220 million, lease principal repayments ~ $115 million, cash tax ~$30 million, a small working‑capital outflow, and an unchanged quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share.Ardagh Metal Packaging Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
24
Negative
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.73B | 5.50B | 4.91B | 4.81B | 4.69B | 4.05B |
| Gross Profit | 606.00M | 559.00M | 630.00M | 474.00M | 526.00M | 616.00M |
| EBITDA | 687.00M | 676.00M | 629.00M | 508.00M | 743.00M | 281.00M |
| Net Income | 11.00M | 11.00M | -3.00M | -50.00M | 237.00M | -210.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.42B | 5.68B | 5.46B | 5.67B | 5.87B | 5.33B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 142.00M | 522.00M | 602.00M | 434.00M | 555.00M | 560.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.48B | 4.42B | 3.90B | 3.73B | 3.59B | 2.90B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.11B | 6.35B | 5.60B | 5.56B | 5.41B | 5.04B |
| Stockholders Equity | -698.00M | -683.00M | -142.00M | 100.00M | 455.00M | 286.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 209.00M | 265.00M | 263.00M | 237.00M | -391.00M | -229.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 413.00M | 449.00M | 450.00M | 616.00M | 205.00M | 458.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -204.00M | -184.00M | -179.00M | -378.00M | -595.00M | -691.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -255.00M | -374.00M | -81.00M | -348.00M | 499.00M | 454.00M |
Ardagh Metal Packaging Technical Analysis
Positive
4.20
Price Trends
4.03
Positive
4.13
Positive
3.92
Positive
Market Momentum
0.16
Negative
73.43
Negative
78.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMBP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.24, above the 50-day MA of 4.03, and above the 200-day MA of 3.92, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.43 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMBP.
Ardagh Metal Packaging Risk Analysis
Ardagh Metal Packaging disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ardagh Metal Packaging reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ardagh Metal Packaging Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $5.57B | 5.45 | 30.14% | 4.33% | 17.41% | 167.71% | |
63 Neutral | $16.61B | 18.00 | 17.29% | 1.53% | 14.00% | 82.84% | |
63 Neutral | $12.50B | 17.81 | 24.33% | 1.01% | 7.06% | 35.16% | |
63 Neutral | $1.33B | 31.47 | 14.53% | 2.80% | -6.26% | 149.36% | |
63 Neutral | $4.90B | 17.51 | 12.47% | 1.97% | 9.55% | -1.62% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
52 Neutral | $2.83B | -561.76 | -2.15% | 9.90% | 13.86% | 74.85% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging
4.74
0.80
20.24%
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28.81%
Ardagh Metal Packaging Corporate Events
Ardagh Metal Packaging Shareholders Back All Proposals at 2026 AGM
Jun 4, 2026
On June 4, 2026, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. held its 2026 annual general meeting of shareholders at its registered office in Luxembourg, where investors voted on eight proposals relating to 2025 financials, governance, and auditor appointments. A...
Ardagh Metal Packaging Sets June 4, 2026 AGM and Files 2025 Financials
Apr 30, 2026
Ardagh Metal Packaging has filed a Form 6-K for April 2026 that furnishes proxy materials for its 2026 annual general meeting, along with audited consolidated financial statements and annual accounts for the year ended December 31, 2025. The filin...
Ardagh Metal Packaging Declares $0.10 Quarterly Interim Dividend for June 2026
Apr 23, 2026
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A., a major global supplier of sustainable metal beverage cans and part of Ardagh Group, operates 23 plants in nine countries across Europe and the Americas. The group employs roughly 6,500 people and reported around $5.5 ...
Ardagh Metal Packaging Posts Strong Q1 2026 Earnings and Reaffirms Full-Year Guidance
Apr 23, 2026
Ardagh Metal Packaging reported first-quarter 2026 results on April 23, showing revenue up 19% year on year to $1.5 billion and Adjusted EBITDA up 15% to $179 million, despite a 1% decline in global beverage can shipments. The group maintained a s...
Ardagh Metal Packaging Files Q1 2026 Results Showing Revenue Growth and Narrower Loss
Apr 23, 2026
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. has filed its Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for April 2026, furnishing unaudited consolidated interim financial statements for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The filing, dated April 23, 20...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.