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Ford Motor
(NYSE:F)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$12.50
▼(-10.39% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/01/26
The score is held back primarily by weak TTM profitability and a highly leveraged balance sheet, partially offset by solid operating/free cash flow. The latest earnings call improves the outlook with raised 2026 EBIT and free-cash-flow guidance, but meaningful headwinds (Novelis/commodities and sizable Model e losses) keep risk elevated. Technically, the stock is trading above major moving averages, and the dividend yield is supportive, but valuation remains constrained by current losses.
Positive Factors
Truck leadership and mix
F-Series leadership provides Ford with a durable position in a core, higher-value vehicle category. Strong truck demand and favorable product mix support pricing power, customer loyalty, and more resilient margins than a portfolio concentrated in lower-margin passenger vehicles.
Negative Factors
High financial leverage
Ford’s elevated leverage and reduced equity limit financial flexibility if vehicle demand, credit performance, or profitability weaken. High obligations can increase funding sensitivity and constrain the capital available for product development, electrification, and other strategic investments.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Truck leadership and mix
F-Series leadership provides Ford with a durable position in a core, higher-value vehicle category. Strong truck demand and favorable product mix support pricing power, customer loyalty, and more resilient margins than a portfolio concentrated in lower-margin passenger vehicles.
Read all positive factors
Ford Motor Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Income Before Taxes by Segment
Reports absolute pre-tax earnings from each segment so investors can identify which parts of the company are profitable, which require support, and how earnings mix is shifting over time.
Reports absolute pre-tax earnings from each segment so investors can identify which parts of the company are profitable, which require support, and how earnings mix is shifting over time.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyFord Motor (F) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$49.57B
Dividend Yield4.83%
Average Volume (3M)43.42M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.86
Revenue Growth1.47%
EPS Growth-315.47%
CountryUS
Employees169,000
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.86
Shares Outstanding3,916,743,700
10 Day Avg. Volume38,001,397
30 Day Avg. Volume43,419,914
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)1.45
Price to Sales (P/S)0.28
P/FCF Ratio4.19
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.78
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.00
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.26
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-105.23
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.81Price Target Upside13.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)1.86
Revenue Forecast (FY)$185.74B
Ford Motor Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ford Motor Company is a global automotive giant, engaged in the design, production, and servicing of a broad spectrum of vehicles. Its product line encompasses Ford trucks, commercial cars and vans, and sport utility vehicles, in addition to luxur...
How the Company Makes Money
Ford primarily makes money by selling vehicles to a global network of dealers and other customers, recognizing revenue from wholesale vehicle sales and, to a lesser extent, direct and fleet sales where applicable. A meaningful portion of revenue a...
Ford Motor Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a cautiously optimistic tone: Ford delivered stronger-than-expected Q2 profitability, raised full‑year adjusted EBIT guidance, demonstrated product and quality momentum (notably in trucks, off‑road, and software/services), and showed tangible progress on EV platform and energy storage initiatives. However, material near‑term headwinds remain—primarily the Novelis aluminum disruption, one‑time charges from the battery JV disposition, Model e losses, and significant commodity costs and investments weighted to the second half. On balance, operational execution, improved mix/pricing, cash/liquidity strength, and upwardly revised guidance outweigh the near‑term challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Q2 Profitability and Raised Full-Year EBIT Guidance
Q2 revenue of $48.3 billion (down 4% YoY) with adjusted company EBIT of $2.5 billion, up 17% YoY. Management raised and narrowed full‑year adjusted EBIT guidance to $10.0–$11.0 billion (a $1.0 billion increase at the midpoint).
Negative Updates
Novelis Aluminum Supply Disruption Costs
Novelis disruption resulted in approximately $800 million of temporary costs year‑to‑date; now expect full‑year Novelis‑related cost impact of about $1.5 billion. U.S. inventory at 52 retail days (below target 55–65 days) while recovery continues.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q2 Profitability and Raised Full-Year EBIT Guidance
Q2 revenue of $48.3 billion (down 4% YoY) with adjusted company EBIT of $2.5 billion, up 17% YoY. Management raised and narrowed full‑year adjusted EBIT guidance to $10.0–$11.0 billion (a $1.0 billion increase at the midpoint).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ford raised and narrowed its 2026 company adjusted EBIT guidance to $10.0–$11.0 billion (midpoint +$1.0B) and now expects adjusted free cash flow of $6.0–$7.0 billion (company generated $2.1B in Q2), while maintaining capital expenditures of $9.5–$10.5 billion; segment guidance is Ford Blue EBIT $5.0–$5.5B, Ford Pro EBIT $7.0–$7.5B, Model e losses of ~ $4.0B (including about $1.0B incremental investment in UEV and Ford Energy, mostly H2), and Ford Credit EBT above $2.5B. Key assumptions and puts/takes include a U.S. industry sales (SAR) outlook of 16.0–16.5 million units, commodity headwinds just above $2.0B (with Novelis‑related temporary costs now expected to total ≈$1.5B full year, ~$800M YTD), a planned $1.0B in material and warranty cost reductions in 2026, full‑year U.S. industry pricing ≈+50 basis points, an expected ~$500M cash flow in 2026 of the $1.3B AIEA reimbursement booked in Q1, the vast majority of remaining Blue Oval SK cash charges to be completed by year‑end, inventory at 52 retail days supply (target 55–65), a announced Q3 regular dividend of $0.15 per share, and a Ford Energy capacity target of ~20 GWh annual by late next year.Ford Motor Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 187.97B | 187.27B | 184.99B | 176.19B | 158.06B | 136.34B |
| Gross Profit | 20.25B | 22.81B | 23.41B | 24.31B | 25.10B | 24.55B |
| EBITDA | -1.78B | -4.58B | 14.21B | 11.79B | 4.74B | 25.54B |
| Net Income | -7.40B | -8.18B | 5.88B | 4.35B | -1.98B | 17.94B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 285.53B | 289.16B | 285.20B | 273.31B | 255.88B | 257.04B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 31.33B | 38.49B | 38.35B | 40.17B | 44.07B | 49.59B |
| Total Debt | 163.30B | 167.57B | 160.86B | 151.11B | 140.47B | 139.49B |
| Total Liabilities | 249.78B | 253.18B | 240.34B | 230.51B | 212.72B | 208.41B |
| Stockholders Equity | 35.72B | 35.95B | 44.84B | 42.77B | 43.24B | 48.52B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 7.28B | 12.47B | 6.74B | 6.68B | -13.00M | 9.56B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 16.95B | 21.28B | 15.42B | 14.92B | 6.85B | 15.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -19.06B | -18.05B | -24.37B | -17.63B | -4.35B | 2.75B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.17B | -3.21B | 7.49B | 2.58B | 2.51B | -23.50B |
Ford Motor Technical Analysis
Neutral
13.95
Price Trends
13.31
Negative
13.84
Negative
13.23
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.33
Negative
45.18
Neutral
62.82
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For F, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 13.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.37, above the 50-day MA of 13.31, and above the 200-day MA of 13.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for F.
Ford Motor Risk Analysis
Ford Motor disclosed 9 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ford Motor reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ford Motor Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $231.87B | 8.81 | 11.67% | 3.23% | 3.88% | 4.59% | |
61 Neutral | $1.40T | 300.61 | 4.58% | ― | 11.75% | -37.64% | |
59 Neutral | $73.67B | 41.98 | 3.04% | 0.82% | -1.11% | -67.59% | |
57 Neutral | $44.28B | -46.22 | -1.40% | 3.88% | 0.81% | -128.78% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
54 Neutral | $49.57B | -6.68 | -18.90% | 4.83% | 1.47% | -315.47% | |
47 Neutral | $17.98B | -4.81 | -67.49% | ― | 14.21% | 20.20% |
* General Sector Average
F
Ford Motor
12.43
0.97
8.51%
GM
General Motors
83.96
26.46
46.01%
HMC
Honda Motor Company
34.28
3.00
9.59%
TSLA
Tesla
354.72
-92.71
-20.72%
TM
Toyota Motor
194.61
-5.50
-2.75%
RIVN
Rivian Automotive
12.42
-0.66
-5.05%
Ford Motor Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ford Addresses F-150 Production Disruption and Risks
Neutral
Oct 2, 2026
Ford Motor Co. reported that at the end of September 2026 production of its F-150 trucks was disrupted by a short-term supplier issue unrelated to aluminum, but said the financial impact remains manageable within its previously stated full-year 20...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.