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Li Auto
(NASDAQ:LI)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$11.00
â–Ľ(-10.35% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/06/26
The score is weighed down primarily by deteriorating profitability and a sharp reversal to cash burn, despite a still-solid (but weakening) balance sheet. Technical indicators also show a pressured longer-term trend (below key moving averages, negative MACD). Offsetting these risks, the latest earnings call points to sequential operational recovery, clear Q3 targets, and a strong cash buffer, but near-term execution and margin uncertainty—especially around Q4 deliveries—remain the key swing factors.
Positive Factors
Market position
Leading sales in China’s premium NEV market indicates strong brand relevance and product-market fit among family SUV buyers. This position can support dealer utilization, service revenue, customer loyalty, and more efficient launches as Li Auto expands its refreshed and new model portfolio.
Negative Factors
Profitability deterioration
Sharp margin compression and a return to net losses weaken near-term earnings power and reduce the cash available for reinvestment. Product mix, component costs, and the company’s decision not to pass price increases to customers could keep profitability below historical levels until scale and in-house technologies offset pressure.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Market position
Leading sales in China’s premium NEV market indicates strong brand relevance and product-market fit among family SUV buyers. This position can support dealer utilization, service revenue, customer loyalty, and more efficient launches as Li Auto expands its refreshed and new model portfolio.
Read all positive factors
Li Auto Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Deliveries
Tracks the number of vehicles delivered to customers, indicating demand strength, production efficiency, and overall market penetration for Li Auto.
Tracks the number of vehicles delivered to customers, indicating demand strength, production efficiency, and overall market penetration for Li Auto.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLi Auto (LI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.65B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.99M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.63
Revenue Growth-24.71%
EPS Growth-158.82%
CountryUS
Employees30,728
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-4.59
Shares Outstanding909,162,540
10 Day Avg. Volume3,244,566
30 Day Avg. Volume2,987,958
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.23
Price to Book (P/B)1.64
Price to Sales (P/S)1.06
P/FCF Ratio-9.31
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.26Price Target Upside8.03% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)-3.62
Revenue Forecast (FY)$112.84B
Li Auto Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Li Auto Inc. is a prominent player in the rapidly expanding new energy vehicle market within the People's Republic of China. The company's operations span the entire lifecycle of high-end intelligent electric vehicles, from their initial design an...
How the Company Makes Money
Li Auto primarily makes money by selling vehicles to customers in China, with revenue largely recognized from the delivery of its Li-branded new energy vehicles. A substantial portion of total revenue typically comes from automotive sales (vehicle...
Li Auto Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 26, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Dec 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed picture: strong strategic and technological progress (in‑house chips, batteries, ADAS, expanded supercharging network), solid sequential recovery and a large cash buffer support confidence for future growth. However, significant year‑over‑year declines in revenue, gross profit and a return to net loss, together with commodity cost inflation and near‑term operational disruptions, are notable headwinds. Management emphasizes long‑term margin targets and in‑house technology deployment to offset cost pressures, while Q4 deliveries remain a key determinant of full‑year cash flow recovery.Positive Updates
Strong product and market leadership
Li Auto remains the top-selling Chinese automotive brand in the RMB 200,000+ NEV market; Li i6 has been a top-3 seller priced over RMB 200,000 for 6 consecutive months, and L6/Li i6 lead their respective segments, supporting leadership in the RMB 200k–300k SUV market.
Negative Updates
Significant year‑over‑year revenue and vehicle sales decline
Total revenue fell 15.1% YoY to RMB 25.7bn and vehicle sales declined 16.7% YoY to RMB 24.1bn, primarily due to reduced deliveries and a lower average selling price from product mix changes.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong product and market leadership
Li Auto remains the top-selling Chinese automotive brand in the RMB 200,000+ NEV market; Li i6 has been a top-3 seller priced over RMB 200,000 for 6 consecutive months, and L6/Li i6 lead their respective segments, supporting leadership in the RMB 200k–300k SUV market.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company’s formal guidance and forward-looking metrics included Q3 delivery and revenue targets of 95,000–100,000 vehicles and RMB 26.6–28.0 billion in total revenues, respectively, and a planned full-year CapEx of about RMB 6.0 billion; management noted Q2 operating cash provided of RMB 15.0 million (Q2 free cash flow negative RMB 1.3 billion) and a strong quarter‑end cash balance of RMB 87.5 billion, while stressing that achieving full‑year positive operating cash flow and free cash flow depends on Q4 deliveries. Other quantifiable program metrics and progress cited on the call included 91.7 million Class A shares repurchased (including 23.7 million ADSs) for about $631.5 million, MACH M100 chip shipments exceeding 50,000 units, a proprietary charging network of 4,141 stations and over 22,800 stalls spanning a 9×9 grid across 18 national highways and 300+ cities, a current EREV/BEV mix of ~50/50 with BEV share expected to rise, an ambition to remain top‑3 in China’s >RMB 200,000 passenger vehicle market, a long‑term healthy gross margin target of ~15–20%, and ADAS/AI upgrade targets (e.g., perception range >250m, >30% reduction in hard braking/hestiation/unnecessary lane changes, 3D spatial accuracy to ~5 cm with ~50% higher success rates in tight scenarios, >20% fewer standstills, ADAS mileage penetration nearly doubled and all‑scenarios MPI +25%).Li Auto Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
30
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 104.22B | 112.31B | 144.52B | 123.83B | 46.08B | 26.66B |
| Gross Profit | 14.16B | 20.99B | 29.67B | 27.49B | 8.81B | 5.55B |
| EBITDA | -2.54B | 6.10B | 12.57B | 12.32B | -853.90M | 494.34M |
| Net Income | -4.59B | 1.12B | 8.04B | 11.70B | -2.05B | -317.29M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 140.73B | 154.30B | 162.35B | 143.47B | 86.54B | 61.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 85.64B | 101.02B | 112.81B | 103.26B | 56.51B | 47.52B |
| Total Debt | 30.01B | 17.81B | 16.34B | 13.55B | 12.26B | 7.84B |
| Total Liabilities | 74.74B | 81.16B | 91.03B | 82.89B | 41.35B | 20.78B |
| Stockholders Equity | 65.98B | 72.62B | 70.87B | 60.14B | 44.86B | 41.06B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -14.09B | -12.82B | 8.20B | 44.19B | 2.25B | 4.90B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -9.95B | -8.61B | 15.93B | 50.69B | 7.38B | 8.34B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 5.22B | -703.13M | -41.14B | -12.07M | -4.36B | -4.26B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.37B | 767.40M | -415.65M | 185.38M | 5.64B | 16.71B |
Li Auto Technical Analysis
Negative
12.27
Price Trends
12.29
Negative
13.22
Negative
15.41
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.27
Positive
37.89
Neutral
12.27
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.80, below the 50-day MA of 12.29, and below the 200-day MA of 15.41, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.27 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LI.
Li Auto Risk Analysis
Li Auto disclosed 110 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Li Auto reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
We are a “controlled company” within the meaning of the Nasdaq Stock Market Rules and, as a result, may rely on exemptions from certain corporate governance requirements that provide protection to shareholders of other companies. Q4, 2023
2.
We had net losses in the past, which may happen again in the future. Q4, 2023
3.
We may face challenges in expanding our business and operations internationally and our ability to conduct business in international markets may be adversely affected by legal, regulatory, political, and economic risks. Q4, 2023
Li Auto Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $1.39T | 300.69 | 4.58% | ― | 11.75% | -37.64% | |
50 Neutral | $9.16B | -20.11 | -10.72% | ― | 28.99% | 24.33% | |
46 Neutral | $7.39B | -1.76 | 61.71% | ― | 74.15% | -29.12% | |
45 Neutral | $11.65B | -16.99 | -6.52% | ― | -24.71% | -158.82% | |
45 Neutral | $8.63B | -11.77 | -112.44% | ― | 69.72% | 82.72% | |
41 Neutral | $1.10B | -0.37 | 39.95% | ― | 17.58% | 50.60% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
LI
Li Auto
11.12
-14.71
-56.95%
TSLA
Tesla
354.11
-81.89
-18.78%
NIO
Nio
3.40
-4.49
-56.91%
XPEV
XPeng, Inc. ADR
9.42
-14.39
-60.44%
PSNY
Polestar Automotive Holding UK
6.36
-22.10
-77.66%
VFS
VinFast Auto
3.06
-0.17
-5.26%
Li Auto Corporate Events
Li Auto Steps Up Hong Kong Share Buybacks With HK$58 Million Repurchase
Sep 28, 2026
On September 21, 2026, Li Auto repurchased 1,272,800 Class A WVR ordinary shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at prices between HK$44.84 and HK$47, for a total consideration of about HK$58.2 million, to be held as treasury shares. Following the...
Li Auto Steps Up Hong Kong Share Buybacks Under 2026 Repurchase Mandate
Sep 21, 2026
Li Auto Inc., a Chinese maker of smart new energy SUVs with WVR ordinary shares listed in Hong Kong and the U.S., continues to use share repurchases and treasury share holdings as financial tools to support its capital management. The company, whi...
Li Auto Adds to Treasury Stock with HK$26.6 Million Share Buyback on September 8, 2026
Sep 14, 2026
Li Auto reported in a September 2026 Form 6-K that it executed on its Hong Kong share repurchase program, reflecting active capital management in its listed WVR A ordinary shares. The disclosure covers activity through September 8, 2026, and under...
Li Auto Files 2026 Interim Report with U.S. SEC
Sep 8, 2026
Li Auto Inc., a Chinese new energy vehicle maker incorporated in the Cayman Islands and listed in Hong Kong under stock code 2015, focuses on smart electric and extended-range SUVs for family customers. The company operates with a weighted voting ...
Li Auto Details Late-August 2026 Share Buybacks Under Hong Kong Mandate
Sep 8, 2026
Li Auto reported regulatory filings in early September 2026 detailing recent movements in its Hong Kong-listed WVR A ordinary shares, including the use of share repurchases to adjust its capital structure. On August 31, 2026, the company bought ba...
Li Auto Files August 2026 Form 6-K, Detailing Recent Disclosure Returns
Aug 24, 2026
Li Auto Inc., the Beijing-based smart EV maker, filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for August 2026, reaffirming its status as a foreign private issuer reporting under Form 20-F. The filing underscores the companyR...
Li Auto Details August 2026 Share Repurchases Under Hong Kong Mandate
Aug 17, 2026
Li Auto reported a series of share repurchases in early August 2026, disclosing changes in its issued and treasury shares through multiple Next Day Disclosure Returns filed with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the U.S. SEC. On August 7, 2026, the...
Li Auto Sets August 26 Board Meeting to Approve Mid‑Year 2026 Results
Aug 11, 2026
Li Auto Inc., a Chinese new energy vehicle manufacturer incorporated in the Cayman Islands and listed in Hong Kong, focuses on smart electric SUVs and extended-range electric vehicles for the domestic premium family market. With principal offices ...
Li Auto Details Early August Share Repurchases and Capital Movements in New Filings
Aug 10, 2026
Li Auto reported a series of changes in its share capital structure in early August 2026, filing a Form 6-K for the month with U.S. regulators that attached multiple Next Day Disclosure Returns and a monthly securities movement report for its Hong...
Li Auto Delivers 30,468 Vehicles in July 2026 and Expands Overseas Production
Aug 3, 2026
Li Auto reported past July 2026 deliveries of 30,468 vehicles, bringing cumulative deliveries since volume production began in November 2019 to 1,764,155 units. During the month, the company launched the new Li L6, saw Li L9 cumulative sales surpa...
Li Auto Expands Share Buybacks with Late-July Nasdaq Repurchases
Aug 3, 2026
Li Auto disclosed a series of share repurchases executed in late July 2026 under its authorized buyback mandate, as detailed in a Form 6-K filed on August 3, 2026 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The company repurchased 533,964 Cl...
Li Auto Details Mid-July Share Buybacks and Treasury Share Moves
Jul 27, 2026
Li Auto Inc. reported a series of share repurchases and related changes to its issued and treasury share balances in mid-July 2026, as disclosed in multiple Next Day Disclosure Returns to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. These filings detail activity...
Li Auto Details July 2026 Share Repurchases Under Ongoing Buyback Mandate
Jul 20, 2026
In mid-July 2026, Li Auto reported a series of changes to its share capital structure, filing multiple Next Day Disclosure Returns with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The filings detail adjustments in issued and treasury shares, signaling ongoing a...
Li Auto Details July Share Buybacks and Capital Movements in Form 6-K Filing
Jul 13, 2026
Li Auto disclosed a series of routine equity updates for July 2026, filing a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that bundled several Hong Kong stock exchange returns. These covered daily and monthly movements in its share ca...
Li Auto Reports Late-June Share Buybacks Under Hong Kong Repurchase Mandate
Jul 6, 2026
On July 6, 2026, Li Auto filed a Form 6-K in the U.S. reporting several Next Day Disclosure Returns tied to its Hong Kong listing. These filings detail changes in issued and treasury shares linked to ongoing share buybacks conducted in late June a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.