Toyota Motor (TM) AI Stock Analysis

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Toyota Motor

(NYSE:TM)

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Outperform 70 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:70Outperform

Price Target:

$214.00

▲(5.97% Upside)

Toyota Motor's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and attractive valuation. However, technical analysis indicates potential short-term weakness, and cash flow challenges need to be addressed to ensure long-term growth and stability.

Toyota Motor (TM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$256.96B

Dividend Yield2.98%

Average Volume (3M)293.13K

Price to Earnings (P/E)9.3

Beta (1Y)0.96

Revenue Growth4.14%

EPS Growth-12.12%

CountryUS

Employees383,853

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength84

IndustryAuto - Manufacturers

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)4.38

Shares Outstanding1,579,498,800

10 Day Avg. Volume345,684

30 Day Avg. Volume293,130

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-4.18

Price to Book (P/B)0.97

Price to Sales (P/S)0.72

P/FCF Ratio-22.24

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.71

Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.05

Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.05

Forecast

1Y Price TargetN/A

Price Target UpsideN/A

Rating ConsensusN/A

Number of Analyst Covering0

Toyota Motor Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionToyota Motor Corporation (TM) is a multinational automotive manufacturer headquartered in Toyota City, Japan. Founded in 1937, the company is one of the largest automobile manufacturers in the world, producing a wide range of vehicles including sedans, SUVs, trucks, and hybrids under brands such as Toyota and Lexus. Toyota is also involved in the development of advanced automotive technologies, including fuel cell vehicles and autonomous driving systems, and operates in various sectors including mobility services and financial services.

How the Company Makes MoneyToyota generates revenue primarily through the sale of vehicles, which include passenger cars, trucks, and hybrids. The company also earns money from its financial services division, which provides financing options for vehicle purchases and leases. Additional revenue streams include sales of spare parts and accessories, as well as revenues from its mobility services, such as car-sharing and ride-hailing platforms. Strategic partnerships with other technology and automotive firms enhance its capabilities in areas like electric and autonomous vehicles, contributing to ongoing innovation and revenue growth. Furthermore, Toyota benefits from global market presence and diversified manufacturing operations, allowing it to optimize production costs and respond to market demands effectively.

Toyota Motor Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Retail Vehicle Sales

Retail Vehicle Sales
Tracks the number of vehicles sold directly to consumers, providing insight into market demand, brand popularity, and competitive positioning in the automotive industry.

Chart InsightsToyota's retail vehicle sales have faced a notable decline from their peak in late 2023, reflecting challenges such as supply constraints and production suspensions in the U.S. Despite these setbacks, the company is optimistic about a recovery, projecting increased production volumes and a significant rise in electrified vehicle sales. However, the forecasted decrease in operating income and external pressures like U.S. tariffs and production issues in North America could pose risks to their recovery efforts and strategic goals.

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Main Street Data

Toyota Motor Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlights both significant achievements, such as strong operating income and increased electrified vehicle sales, and challenges, like U.S. tariffs and production issues in North America. While the company remains committed to growth and shareholder returns, uncertainties in the global market impact future outlooks.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Operating Income

Operating income for the fiscal year ended March 2025 was JPY4.8 trillion, secured through price revisions and expansion of value chain profits. This was achieved despite challenges such as production suspension in Indiana.

Increase in Electrified Vehicle Sales

The proportion of electrified vehicles was 46.2%, a significant increase from the previous fiscal year, with HEVs increasing by 850,000 units.

Commitment to Shareholder Returns

The full-year dividend for the fiscal year ended March 2025 increased by JPY15 to JPY90, with a forecasted increase to JPY95 for FY2026.

Focus on Sustained Growth

Efforts to strengthen management foundation and develop new profit pillars for sustainable growth, with an emphasis on transforming into a mobility company.

Improved Profitability

Consistent achievement of ROE over 10% with significant improvements in profitability, including increasing marginal profit per unit by approximately 1.6x.

Negative Updates

U.S. Tariff Challenges

The impact of U.S. tariffs estimated at JPY180 billion for April and May 2025, with ongoing uncertainty affecting future forecasts.

Production Challenges in North America

Operating income decreased in North America due to lower production volume caused by a four-month shutdown of Toyota Motor manufacturing in Indiana.

Decreased Operating Income Forecast

Operating income forecast for FY2026 is JPY3.8 trillion, down from JPY4.8 trillion in FY2025, due to factors like foreign exchange rates and material prices.

Challenges in Chinese Market

Decrease in operating income for consolidated subsidiaries in China due to increased sales expenses, highlighting competitive challenges in the region.

Company Guidance

In the call, the company provided guidance for the fiscal year ending March 2026, projecting an operating income of JPY3.8 trillion, which is a decrease from the JPY4.8 trillion achieved in the fiscal year ended March 2025. Despite this anticipated decline in profits, the company plans to increase its full-year dividend to JPY95, up from JPY90 the previous fiscal year. The company expects consolidated vehicle sales to rise to 9.8 million units, a 4.7% increase from the previous year, with Toyota and Lexus vehicle sales projected to reach 10.4 million units, up 1.2%. Electrified vehicle sales are expected to account for 49.8% of total sales, reflecting a continued focus on hybrid and other electrified models. The guidance also factors in a JPY180 billion impact from U.S. tariffs for April and May 2025, alongside a JPY745 billion decrease due to foreign exchange impacts. The company highlighted its strategic focus on reinforcing its operational foundation, developing new profit pillars, and expanding its value chain profits as part of its long-term growth strategy.

Toyota Motor Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Toyota Motor demonstrates strong financial performance with robust revenue growth and profitability. The income statement shows consistent profitability, while the balance sheet reflects financial stability despite high leverage. However, the cash flow statement indicates potential liquidity challenges due to high capital expenditures.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Toyota Motor's income statement reveals strong profitability with a consistent increase in gross profit and net income over the years. The gross profit margin remains robust, reflecting efficient cost management. Notably, the revenue growth rate from 2024 to 2025 is approximately 6.5%, indicating steady expansion. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, showcasing operational efficiency. However, a slight decrease in net income from 2024 to 2025 suggests potential challenges affecting net profitability.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet of Toyota Motor demonstrates financial stability with a substantial stockholders' equity, contributing to a solid equity ratio of approximately 38.4%. The debt-to-equity ratio is around 1.08, signifying a balanced leverage position. Return on equity has been consistent, showcasing effective utilization of shareholder funds. However, the high total debt level requires careful management to mitigate financial risk.

Cash Flow

Positive

Toyota Motor's cash flow statement shows a decline in free cash flow, posing a concern for liquidity. The operating cash flow remains positive, indicating ongoing operational cash generation. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting high capital expenditures which could impact future cash availability. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests efficient cash conversion from profits.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	48.45T	48.04T	45.10T	37.15T	31.38T	27.21T
Gross Profit	9.35T	9.58T	9.37T	6.31T	5.97T	4.83T
EBITDA	8.10T	8.75T	8.39T	5.19T	5.84T	4.61T
Net Income	4.27T	4.77T	4.94T	2.45T	2.85T	2.25T
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	93.47T	93.60T	90.11T	74.30T	67.69T	62.27T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	15.97T	15.92T	14.11T	9.23T	8.62T	9.32T
Total Debt	38.44T	38.79T	36.56T	29.38T	26.50T	25.66T
Total Liabilities	56.48T	56.72T	54.87T	45.04T	40.53T	37.98T
Stockholders Equity	36.04T	35.92T	34.22T	28.34T	26.25T	23.40T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	44.44B	-1.56T	-842.02B	-750.76B	-107.63B	-1.04T
Operating Cash Flow	4.89T	3.70T	4.21T	2.96T	3.72T	2.73T
Investing Cash Flow	-3.59T	-4.19T	-5.00T	-1.60T	-577.50B	-4.68T
Financing Cash Flow	-287.26B	197.24B	2.50T	-56.18B	-2.47T	2.74T

Toyota Motor Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price201.95

Price Trends

50DMA

197.04

Positive

100DMA

187.84

Positive

200DMA

185.98

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

1.53

Negative

RSI

62.02

Neutral

STOCH

93.57

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 201.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 195.71, above the 50-day MA of 197.04, and above the 200-day MA of 185.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.57 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TM.

Toyota Motor Risk Analysis

Toyota Motor disclosed 11 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Toyota Motor reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks

Regulatory, Legal, Political and Other Risks Q1, 2023

Toyota's operations are dependent on securing, retaining and developing talented, diverse employees. Q1, 2023

Financial Market and Economic Risks Q1, 2023

Toyota Motor Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TSLA	75 Outperform	$1.47T	254.21	7.03%	―	-2.73%	-51.64%
F	73 Outperform	$49.99B	16.02	7.11%	6.03%	2.72%	-17.58%
GM	71 Outperform	$63.43B	13.39	4.44%	0.93%	2.58%	-46.27%
HMC	71 Outperform	$43.30B	11.09	5.17%	4.39%	1.68%	-39.28%
TM	70 Outperform	$256.96B	9.31	12.05%	2.98%	4.14%	-12.12%
LI	65 Neutral	$22.51B	20.75	11.91%	―	7.49%	-21.06%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

Toyota Motor

204.06

32.06

18.64%

Ford Motor

12.34

2.06

20.04%

General Motors

66.85

15.33

29.76%

HMC

Honda Motor Company

31.59

2.57

8.86%

TSLA

Tesla

448.98

179.79

66.79%

Li Auto

22.23

-6.56

-22.79%

Toyota Motor Corporate Events

Toyota Motor Corp Reports Mixed FY2026 Q1 Results

Aug 8, 2025

Toyota Motor Corporation, a leading player in the automotive industry, designs, manufactures, and sells a wide range of vehicles, including sedans, SUVs, and trucks, and provides financial services to support its operations globally.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 16, 2025