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Tesla
(NASDAQ:TSLA)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$417.00
▲(17.77% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/22/26
TSLA scores as a balanced risk/reward setup: solid underlying financial resilience (low leverage and positive cash generation) and a very strong, catalyst-heavy earnings narrative (FSD/robotaxi/energy momentum) support the score. Offsetting these positives are still-muted profitability/returns versus prior peaks and a very high valuation (P/E ~327), which increases sensitivity to execution, regulatory timing, and the company’s large upcoming investment cycle. Technicals are broadly neutral, indicating stabilization rather than a clear trend-driven tailwind.
Positive Factors
Conservative Balance Sheet
Low leverage gives Tesla financial flexibility to fund capacity expansion, product development and strategic investments without relying heavily on debt. The large equity base and substantial asset growth also provide resilience if automotive profitability remains below prior peak levels.
Negative Factors
Margin Compression
Lower gross and net margins show that Tesla’s revenue growth is currently converting into earnings less efficiently than during its earlier peak period. Persistent pricing and cost pressure could constrain reinvestment capacity and make future profitability more dependent on successful new businesses.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative Balance Sheet
Low leverage gives Tesla financial flexibility to fund capacity expansion, product development and strategic investments without relying heavily on debt. The large equity base and substantial asset growth also provide resilience if automotive profitability remains below prior peak levels.
Read all positive factors
Tesla Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down Tesla’s revenue across regions, revealing where demand is strongest and how exposed the company is to local competition, economic conditions, and policy changes.
Breaks down Tesla’s revenue across regions, revealing where demand is strongest and how exposed the company is to local competition, economic conditions, and policy changes.
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The Fly
The FlyTesla (TSLA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.53T
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)34.57M
Price to Earnings (P/E)327.5
Beta (1Y)1.85
Revenue Growth11.75%
EPS Growth-37.64%
CountryUS
Employees134,785
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.18
Shares Outstanding3,952,730,200
10 Day Avg. Volume32,189,032
30 Day Avg. Volume34,574,992
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-8.09
Price to Book (P/B)17.66
Price to Sales (P/S)15.29
P/FCF Ratio233.17
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.80
Enterprise Value/Revenue11.85
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit62.84
Enterprise Value/Ebitda102.05
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$410.34Price Target Upside15.89% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering27
EPS Forecast (FY)1.68
Revenue Forecast (FY)$107.18B
Tesla Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tesla, Inc. operates globally, specializing in the creation, production, and distribution of electric vehicles, alongside comprehensive energy generation and storage solutions. Its market reach extends across the United States, China, and various ...
How the Company Makes Money
Tesla makes money primarily by selling products and services across its Automotive and Energy businesses, supplemented by software, services, and other revenue sources. (1) Automotive sales are the largest driver: Tesla recognizes revenue from the...
Tesla Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 21, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 03, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly optimistic, with management highlighting record vehicle delivery performance, substantial demand, improving automotive and energy margins, rapid FSD and Robotaxi adoption, strong liquidity and significant progress across Semi, Cybercab, Optimus and Terafab. The principal challenges were production constraints, rising operating expenses, regulatory approvals, continued Optimus development work, Robotaxi economics below target and very large future capital requirements. The breadth and strength of the reported growth initiatives and operating metrics significantly outweighed the stated challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Vehicle Demand and Production Expansion
Management described the third quarter as very strong, with vehicle demand growing rapidly and exceeding production by a significant margin. Tesla is ramping production meaningfully and is laying the groundwork for additional manufacturing capacity, with an aim of reaching approximately 5 million vehicles annually by 2030.
Negative Updates
Vehicle Deliveries Constrained by Production
Although demand exceeded production by a significant margin and backlog reached its highest level in four years, management said vehicle deliveries were constrained primarily by production. Increasing production still requires time to align supply chain, manufacturing and delivery logistics.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Vehicle Demand and Production Expansion
Management described the third quarter as very strong, with vehicle demand growing rapidly and exceeding production by a significant margin. Tesla is ramping production meaningfully and is laying the groundwork for additional manufacturing capacity, with an aim of reaching approximately 5 million vehicles annually by 2030.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Tesla said it is aiming for 5 million vehicles a year by approximately 2030, is almost sold out of all Megapacks for 2027, expects EU-wide FSD approval within a few months and would be surprised if it takes longer than Q1, expects to reach 20,000 Optimus units a week in probably at least a year, maybe a little longer, with issues solved around the end of next year and deliveries to companies outside Tesla then, plans to integrate AI5 into Optimus in approximately April of next year and in volume around April of next year, expects Cybercab customer deliveries by the end of this year, 2026, and expansion to other cities before the end of this year, sees a path to the $0.30 Robotaxi target, expects 24/7 operation and higher-speed roads hopefully by the end of this year, expects Robotaxi to become a significant part of revenue and profitability in '27, noticeable probably in Q2 and probably a big deal by Q3 or Q4 of next year, plans to commission Terafab machinery in the first half of next year, make a first test chip around May or June, produce some kind of useful chip at volume around Q3 of 2028, and begin real production in late '28, with capital in the tens of billions through early 2028 and probably north of $100 billion long term; CapEx guidance is approximately $20 billion for the current year, with capacity to borrow up to $30 billion, no draws planned under the new facilities in this calendar year, and CapEx expected to become more meaningful next year and noticeable in the tens of billions in '28.Tesla Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 103.62B | 94.83B | 97.69B | 96.77B | 81.46B | 53.82B |
| Gross Profit | 19.53B | 17.09B | 17.45B | 17.66B | 20.85B | 13.61B |
| EBITDA | 12.03B | 11.76B | 14.71B | 14.80B | 17.45B | 9.63B |
| Net Income | 3.82B | 3.79B | 7.13B | 15.00B | 12.58B | 5.52B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 148.52B | 137.81B | 122.07B | 106.62B | 82.34B | 62.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 43.52B | 44.06B | 36.56B | 29.09B | 22.18B | 17.71B |
| Total Debt | 9.34B | 8.38B | 13.62B | 9.57B | 5.75B | 8.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 61.06B | 54.94B | 48.39B | 43.01B | 36.44B | 30.55B |
| Stockholders Equity | 86.86B | 82.14B | 72.91B | 62.63B | 44.70B | 30.19B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.76B | 6.22B | 3.58B | 4.36B | 7.55B | 3.48B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 18.68B | 14.75B | 14.92B | 13.26B | 14.72B | 11.50B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -21.83B | -15.48B | -18.79B | -15.58B | -11.97B | -7.87B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.90B | 1.14B | 3.85B | 2.59B | -3.53B | -5.20B |
Tesla Technical Analysis
Positive
354.08
Price Trends
363.12
Positive
368.76
Positive
386.64
Negative
Market Momentum
2.86
Negative
52.80
Neutral
73.34
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSLA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 354.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 369.86, below the 50-day MA of 363.12, and below the 200-day MA of 386.64, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.86 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSLA.
Tesla Risk Analysis
Tesla disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tesla reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Tesla Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $1.53T | 327.52 | 4.58% | ― | 11.75% | -37.64% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | $48.45B | -6.40 | -18.90% | 5.04% | 1.47% | -315.47% | |
51 Neutral | $9.03B | -19.53 | -10.72% | ― | 28.99% | 24.33% | |
47 Neutral | $18.00B | -4.83 | -67.49% | ― | 14.21% | 20.20% | |
45 Neutral | $8.45B | -11.49 | -112.44% | ― | 69.72% | 82.72% | |
42 Neutral | $1.29B | -0.23 | -254.84% | ― | 66.54% | -22.69% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TSLA
Tesla
374.58
-74.40
-16.57%
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11.94
0.15
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LCID
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3.46
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RIVN
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12.06
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Tesla Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Tesla Secures Massive New Credit Facilities to Boost Liquidity
Positive
Sep 29, 2026
On September 29, 2026, Tesla entered into new senior unsecured credit facilities totaling $30.0 billion, comprising a $20.0 billion three-year delayed draw term loan, an $8.0 billion five-year revolving facility, and a $2.0 billion 364-day revolvi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.