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Century Aluminum
(NASDAQ:CENX)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$39.00
▼(-11.76% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/03/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance and a positive earnings outlook tied to restart-driven volume and liquidity gains. Valuation also supports the rating with a low P/E. These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum (deeply oversold and below key moving averages) and ongoing cyclicality and cash-conversion risk highlighted in the financials.
Positive Factors
Restart-led capacity growth
The completed restarts expand productive capacity and create a durable volume opportunity beyond a single quarter. Mt. Holly adds nearly 10% to U.S. production, while Grundartangi is nearing full output, improving operating scale and supporting revenue growth over the coming periods.
Negative Factors
Cyclical earnings durability
The sharp movement between losses and strong profits shows that Century’s earnings remain highly exposed to aluminum prices, premiums, and operating conditions. This cyclicality makes current profitability less dependable and can cause returns and reinvestment capacity to weaken quickly in a less favorable market.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Restart-led capacity growth
The completed restarts expand productive capacity and create a durable volume opportunity beyond a single quarter. Mt. Holly adds nearly 10% to U.S. production, while Grundartangi is nearing full output, improving operating scale and supporting revenue growth over the coming periods.
Read all positive factors
Century Aluminum Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down sales across the company’s business lines (for example smelting, value‑added products, and any trading or services). Highlights which operations drive cash flow and margins, and shows where management is allocating resources—shifts between segments can signal strategy changes or margin pressure.
Breaks down sales across the company’s business lines (for example smelting, value‑added products, and any trading or services). Highlights which operations drive cash flow and margins, and shows where management is allocating resources—shifts between segments can signal strategy changes or margin pressure.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCentury Aluminum (CENX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.32B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.87M
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.7
Beta (1Y)2.01
Revenue Growth9.67%
EPS Growth399.06%
CountryUS
Employees2,906
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAluminum
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.10
Shares Outstanding98,993,290
10 Day Avg. Volume2,008,563
30 Day Avg. Volume1,865,727
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.06
Price to Book (P/B)4.47
Price to Sales (P/S)1.46
P/FCF Ratio43.52
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.52
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.89
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.81
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.05
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$62.20Price Target Upside40.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)10.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.35B
Century Aluminum Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Century Aluminum Company, along with its associated entities, manufactures both standard and specialized primary aluminum products across the United States and Iceland. The firm also possesses and manages a facility dedicated to carbon anode produ...
How the Company Makes Money
Century Aluminum primarily makes money by producing and selling primary aluminum from its smelting operations. Revenue is generated from (1) sales of aluminum products (e.g., commodity-grade primary aluminum and value-added forms such as billet/ot...
Century Aluminum Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed materially positive operational and financial momentum: two major restarts completed (Mt. Holly and Grundartangi), rising shipments and strong sequential pricing that drove a $96 million increase in adjusted EBITDA, improved liquidity with cash exceeding total debt after July receipts, and clear progress toward the Oklahoma smelter with policy support that could be materially accretive. Headwinds are present but largely short-term or anticipated: restart-related instability at Mt. Holly expected to be resolved by Q3, Grundartangi operating conservatively until Q4 transformer installs, modest bauxite quality impacts at Jamalco, hedge and tax items reducing near-term earnings, and temporary working capital build from the expansion. Given that the highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights and management provided a constructive Q3 outlook, the overall tone is positive.Positive Updates
Completion of Mt. Holly Expansion
Restart of final 90 pots completed late June, returning Mt. Holly to full capacity; increases total U.S. aluminum production by nearly 10%, adds over 150 full-time jobs, project on time and on budget and expected to repay capital costs by end of 2026; Q2 reflected a partial quarter of expanded tons with full benefit starting in Q3.
Negative Updates
Post-Restart Instability at Mt. Holly
Management reported some instability following the Mt. Holly restart that will modestly impact Q3 results; the issue is expected to be resolved by the end of Q3 and is included in the Q3 outlook but represents a short-term operational headwind.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Completion of Mt. Holly Expansion
Restart of final 90 pots completed late June, returning Mt. Holly to full capacity; increases total U.S. aluminum production by nearly 10%, adds over 150 full-time jobs, project on time and on budget and expected to repay capital costs by end of 2026; Q2 reflected a partial quarter of expanded tons with full benefit starting in Q3.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For Q3 management expects a lagged LME of $3.33k/ton (up ≈$75 vs Q2’s $3.25k/ton), a U.S. Midwest premium of ~$1.09/lb (down $0.03), and a European duty‑paid premium of ~$520/ton (up ≈$70), which together should add about $5–10M to results and drive an expected Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $325–$345M; they also forecast energy headwinds of $10–15M, a modest $5M raw‑materials headwind, flat OpEx, a $15–25M benefit from higher volume/sales mix (Mt. Holly and Grundartangi ramp), plus $20–25M of adverse realized hedge settlements and $10–15M of tax expense—against a Q2 backdrop of adjusted EBITDA $327M, shipments ≈131k tons, realized LME $3.25k/ton, cash $388M at June 30 (net debt $98M after $66M debt repayments, and cash exceeding total debt as of end‑July), with Mt. Holly finished goods expected to ship in Q3.Century Aluminum Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.67B | 2.53B | 2.22B | 2.19B | 2.78B | 2.21B |
| Gross Profit | 514.00M | 256.40M | 185.00M | 91.90M | 46.70M | 124.20M |
| EBITDA | 715.60M | 142.20M | 448.70M | 43.40M | 136.10M | -84.60M |
| Net Income | 603.50M | 41.80M | 336.80M | -43.10M | -14.10M | -167.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.88B | 2.28B | 1.94B | 1.85B | 1.47B | 1.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 343.40M | 135.60M | 32.90M | 88.80M | 54.30M | 29.00M |
| Total Debt | 480.00M | 548.30M | 519.20M | 473.70M | 548.60M | 474.10M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.34B | 1.34B | 1.28B | 1.50B | 1.07B | 1.15B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.40B | 825.60M | 694.40M | 355.60M | 399.30M | 421.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 151.20M | 84.80M | -106.90M | 10.60M | -60.40M | -147.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 339.40M | 183.60M | -24.60M | 105.60M | 25.90M | -64.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 14.00M | -98.80M | -67.30M | -57.80M | -85.50M | -82.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.20M | 15.10M | 37.30M | -13.00M | 74.40M | 103.70M |
Century Aluminum Technical Analysis
Negative
44.20
Price Trends
40.50
Negative
45.01
Negative
50.27
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.97
Negative
32.85
Neutral
26.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CENX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 44.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.47, above the 50-day MA of 40.50, and below the 200-day MA of 50.27, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.97 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 32.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CENX.
Century Aluminum Risk Analysis
Century Aluminum disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Century Aluminum reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Century Aluminum Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $3.32B | 5.66 | 58.57% | ― | 9.67% | 399.06% | |
69 Neutral | $10.76B | 6.96 | 21.40% | 0.98% | 11.56% | 32.11% | |
69 Neutral | $2.49B | 11.48 | 25.31% | 2.00% | 32.83% | 251.96% | |
67 Neutral | $3.49B | 6.41 | 52.38% | ― | 25.94% | 1920.11% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $9.65B | 19.98 | 4.17% | 2.87% | 8.98% | -21.39% | |
55 Neutral | $8.01B | -15.76 | -8.14% | 6.42% | 8.10% | 75.20% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CENX
Century Aluminum
32.65
2.71
9.05%
AA
Alcoa
38.70
-1.13
-2.82%
CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs
13.05
>-0.01
-0.08%
GGB
Gerdau SA
5.07
1.80
55.00%
KALU
Kaiser Aluminum
114.99
24.00
26.38%
CSTM
Constellium
23.99
7.29
43.65%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.