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Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) AI Stock Analysis
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Kaiser Aluminum
(NASDAQ:KALU)
The score is primarily shaped by mixed fundamentals: strong TTM profitability improvements are meaningfully weighed down by negative recent operating/free cash flow and still-elevated leverage. Technicals are bearish with the stock well below major moving averages, limiting the near-term setup despite oversold readings. Offsetting these risks, valuation is compelling (low P/E and moderate dividend yield) and the latest earnings call reinforced confidence in demand and full-year free cash flow expectations, though near-term operational and metal-related headwinds remain.
Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $1.90B
- Dividend Yield
- 2.65%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 277.29K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 8.7
- Beta (1Y)
- 1.76
- Revenue Growth
- 40.43%
- EPS Growth
- 136.99%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 3,800
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Sector Strength
- 61
- Industry
- Aluminum
Kaiser Aluminum Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation is a global producer and vendor of specialized, semi-finished aluminum mill products, operating both domestically within the United States and internationally. Their diverse product portfolio encompasses aluminum items man...
How the Company Makes Money
Kaiser Aluminum makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling semi-fabricated specialty aluminum products to customers under sales contracts and purchase orders. Revenue is generated when the company delivers aluminum mill products (e.g., rolled...
Kaiser Aluminum Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly optimistic about demand, pricing, mix, customer commitments, liquidity, and the company's multi-year growth opportunities. Near-term results faced meaningful headwinds from metal price lag, tighter scrap spreads, planned outages, execution issues, startup costs, inventory timing, and revised shipment outlooks. However, management maintained its full-year outlook, expects free cash flow to exceed $200 million, reported significant underlying operating improvement, and emphasized that most second-half disruptions are not expected to continue into 2027.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
For full year 2026, Kaiser Aluminum expects its effective tax rate before discrete items to be in the mid-20% range, cash tax payments for the federal, state, and foreign taxes to be in the $14 million-$16 million range, free cash flow to exceed $200 million, and capital expenditures to be approximately $130 million; it expects packaging shipment growth of 5%-10% versus the prior expectation of 10%-15%, while maintaining the conversion revenue outlook with expectations to the higher end of the range, and automotive shipments to decline 5%-10% versus the prior expectation of a decline of 0%-5%, with no change to its conversion revenue outlook; full-year 2026 outlook remains unchanged, but results are expected to trend toward the lower end of the previously communicated EBITDA outlook of approximately 45% year-over-year growth.
Kaiser Aluminum Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income statement strength (score 74) shows a meaningful profitability rebound and margin expansion in the TTM period, but this is offset by elevated leverage on the balance sheet (score 61) and, most importantly, very weak recent cash conversion with negative operating and free cash flow (cash flow score 33). The cash flow deterioration is the key near-term financial risk despite improved earnings.
Income Statement
74PositiveBalance Sheet
61PositiveCash Flow
33Negative| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.51B | 3.37B | 3.02B | 3.09B | 3.43B | 2.62B |
| Gross Profit | 482.60M | 319.90M | 332.90M | 332.10M | 247.70M | 273.90M |
| EBITDA | 462.20M | 322.60M | 223.60M | 211.80M | 117.30M | 117.00M |
| Net Income | 218.50M | 112.50M | 46.80M | 47.20M | -29.60M | -18.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.92B | 2.56B | 2.31B | 2.27B | 2.29B | 2.42B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 117.30M | 7.00M | 18.40M | 82.40M | 57.40M | 303.20M |
| Total Debt | 1.06B | 1.12B | 1.09B | 1.08B | 1.09B | 1.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.94B | 1.74B | 1.65B | 1.62B | 1.66B | 1.73B |
| Stockholders Equity | 975.50M | 826.10M | 668.00M | 652.20M | 631.20M | 692.50M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 124.80M | -25.50M | -13.70M | 68.70M | -205.60M | 21.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 227.50M | 111.40M | 167.10M | 211.90M | -63.10M | 79.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -53.10M | -77.80M | -174.60M | -128.20M | -125.80M | -665.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -74.50M | -44.60M | -55.30M | -54.30M | -56.80M | 109.10M |
Kaiser Aluminum Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KALU, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 116.28 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 137.64, below the 50-day MA of 147.62, and below the 200-day MA of 151.68, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -10.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KALU.
Kaiser Aluminum Risk Analysis
Kaiser Aluminum disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kaiser Aluminum reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksKaiser Aluminum Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
CENX72Outperform
CSTM72Outperform
AA70Outperform
MTRN69Neutral
TGLS62Neutral- KALU61Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CENX | 72Outperform | $3.34B | 5.53 | 58.57% | ― | 9.67% | 399.06% |
| CSTM | 72Outperform | $3.11B | 5.46 | 49.37% | ― | 26.10% | 417.58% |
| AA | 70Outperform | $10.34B | 6.70 | 21.40% | 1.02% | 10.27% | 32.09% |
| MTRN | 69Neutral | $4.62B | 51.14 | 9.41% | 0.26% | 21.56% | 454.16% |
| TGLS | 62Neutral | $1.71B | 13.56 | 17.29% | 1.56% | 9.87% | -26.90% |
| Sector * | 61Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
| KALU | 61Neutral | $1.90B | 8.67 | 24.13% | 2.65% | 40.43% | 136.99% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KALU | Kaiser Aluminum | 116.28 | 24.96 | 27.33% | |
| AA | Alcoa Corporation | 39.19 | 2.38 | 6.46% | |
| MTRN | Materion Corp | 221.94 | 107.85 | 94.53% | |
| CENX | Century Aluminum Co | 33.70 | 2.97 | 9.66% | |
| CSTM | Constellium NV | 23.11 | 6.89 | 42.48% | |
| TGLS | Tecnoglass | 38.51 | -19.34 | -33.43% |
Kaiser Aluminum Corporate Events
Kaiser Aluminum Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend for Shareholders
PositiveOn October 13, 2026, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation announced that its board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.77 per share on its common stock. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on November 13, 2026 to shareholders of record as o...
Kaiser Aluminum announces planned CEO leadership transition
PositiveOn August 17, 2026, Kaiser Aluminum announced that veteran manufacturing executive Fred Stephan will become chief executive officer and president effective November 1, 2026, succeeding long-time leader Keith A. Harvey as part of a planned leadership...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 28, 2026