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Alcoa
(NYSE:AA)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$52.00
▲(1.40% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:09/11/26
AA scores in the mid-range primarily because financials are rebounding with improved profitability and reasonable leverage, but cash-flow conversion and cyclicality remain meaningful risks. Technicals are a secondary drag given the stock’s position below key moving averages and subdued momentum. Valuation helps via a low P/E, while the latest earnings commentary is net-positive but tempered by lowered alumina guidance, cost headwinds, and acquisition-related execution/financing uncertainties.
Positive Factors
Integrated aluminum value chain
Control across mining, refining, and smelting gives Alcoa operational visibility across the aluminum chain and supports internal material flows. This integrated model can improve resilience, capture value at multiple stages, and strengthen its position with industrial customers over the coming quarters.
Negative Factors
High earnings cyclicality
Alcoa’s sharp swing from losses to current profitability shows that earnings remain highly exposed to aluminum prices and operating costs. This cyclicality can produce substantial changes in margins and cash generation within a few quarters, making the current recovery less dependable than results from a diversified business.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated aluminum value chain
Control across mining, refining, and smelting gives Alcoa operational visibility across the aluminum chain and supports internal material flows. This integrated model can improve resilience, capture value at multiple stages, and strengthen its position with industrial customers over the coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Alcoa Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Sales by Segment
Breaks down revenue from each business unit, offering insights into which segments are performing well and contributing most to overall growth.
Breaks down revenue from each business unit, offering insights into which segments are performing well and contributing most to overall growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAlcoa (AA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.73B
Dividend Yield0.9%
Average Volume (3M)4.36M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.0
Beta (1Y)1.63
Revenue Growth6.14%
EPS Growth25.38%
CountryUS
Employees14,900
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAluminum
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.92
Shares Outstanding263,909,450
10 Day Avg. Volume3,768,610
30 Day Avg. Volume4,361,265
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.27
Price to Sales (P/S)1.08
P/FCF Ratio24.45
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$61.11Price Target Upside19.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)6.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)$14.87B
Alcoa Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alcoa Corporation stands as a global industrial leader, primarily focused on the production and sale of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products. Its extensive operations span multiple continents, including North America (United States, Canada), Eu...
How the Company Makes Money
Alcoa makes money primarily by selling commodity aluminum inputs—bauxite, alumina, and primary aluminum—produced from its mining, refining, and smelting operations. Revenue is generated through (1) bauxite sales, where mined bauxite is sold to thi...
Alcoa Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 16, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 15, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution and record aluminum financial performance (notably record aluminum segment adjusted EBITDA, high revenue, robust cash generation, strategic investments, and a transformational acquisition with large synergies). Offsetting negatives include alumina segment disruptions (Pinjarra), guidance reductions for alumina volumes, end-of-quarter metal price volatility, elevated input and corporate costs, and some site-level cash consumption. On balance, the positives (record revenue, strong aluminum margins and cash flow, strategic acquisition and investments, labor stability) appear to outweigh the lowlights, though there are clear near-term execution and cost headwinds to monitor.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue
Total revenue increased 24% year-over-year to $4.0 billion, the highest quarterly revenue in Alcoa Corporation's ~10-year history.
Negative Updates
Alumina Segment Weakness and Guidance Reduction
Third-party alumina revenue decreased 3% to $637 million. Management lowered full-year alumina production guidance to 9.5–9.6 million metric tons and shipments to 11.5–11.6 million metric tons primarily due to operational instability at the Pinjarra refinery and natural gas curtailments from Cyclone Narelle.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue
Total revenue increased 24% year-over-year to $4.0 billion, the highest quarterly revenue in Alcoa Corporation's ~10-year history.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Alcoa lowered full‑year alumina guidance to 9.5–9.6 million metric tons of production and 11.5–11.6 million metric tons of shipments, raised other corporate expenses to ~ $180 million and full‑year depreciation to ~ $660 million; for Q3 it expects the alumina segment to be ~ $10 million net favorable (Pinjarra recovery and lower energy) while the aluminum segment is expected to be roughly flat as productivity gains offset ~ $15 million of higher carbon costs, with diesel/fuel‑oil about $5 million favorable in Q3 based on a $90/barrel fuel‑oil assumption. Management also guided Q3 operational tax expense of ~$80–90 million, sees Section 232 tariff costs on U.S. imports from Canada decreasing by ~ $10 million, expects alumina costs in the aluminum segment to be ~ $10 million unfavorable, and noted a ~ $5 million unfavorable currency impact in Q2 that may not recur. On the South32 transaction, Alcoa identified ~ $900 million NPV of synergies (including ~ $50 million of run‑rate savings in year one), will pay $3.1 billion cash + $1.0 billion stock with a locked‑box estimated > $200 million (6/30/26), a ~5% ticking fee (implying ~$80–100 million at close), a CVR capped at $750 million over four years, and expects pro‑forma capacity increases of ~5.2 million metric tons of alumina (+53% pro‑forma) and ~900 thousand metric tons of primary aluminum (+37% pro‑forma); the company finished June with ~$1.4 billion cash, ~$1.4 billion adjusted net debt (within the top end of its target range) and expects post‑close leverage to remain at or below ~2.0x.Alcoa Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 13.60B | 12.83B | 12.18B | 10.71B | 12.76B | 12.44B |
| Gross Profit | 2.56B | 2.17B | 1.50B | 241.00M | 1.93B | 2.62B |
| EBITDA | 1.99B | 1.84B | 1.09B | 155.00M | 1.43B | 2.06B |
| Net Income | 1.28B | 1.16B | 60.00M | -651.00M | -123.00M | 429.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 16.85B | 16.13B | 14.06B | 14.15B | 14.76B | 15.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.35B | 1.74B | 1.14B | 944.00M | 1.36B | 1.81B |
| Total Debt | 2.23B | 2.75B | 2.82B | 1.97B | 1.87B | 1.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.42B | 9.94B | 8.91B | 8.31B | 8.17B | 8.74B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.37B | 6.12B | 5.16B | 4.25B | 5.08B | 4.67B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 352.00M | 567.00M | 42.00M | -440.00M | 342.00M | 530.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.05B | 1.19B | 622.00M | 91.00M | 822.00M | 920.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -594.00M | -502.00M | -608.00M | -585.00M | -495.00M | 565.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -564.00M | -261.00M | 201.00M | 57.00M | -768.00M | -1.16B |
Alcoa Technical Analysis
Negative
51.28
Price Trends
48.26
Negative
55.92
Negative
57.89
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.03
Positive
35.39
Neutral
8.84
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 51.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 49.34, above the 50-day MA of 48.26, and below the 200-day MA of 57.89, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.84 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AA.
Alcoa Risk Analysis
Alcoa disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alcoa reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alcoa Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $19.92B | 22.55 | 12.35% | 1.27% | 15.44% | 25.45% | |
72 Outperform | $2.45B | 10.76 | 26.29% | 2.05% | 32.83% | 251.96% | |
71 Outperform | $3.86B | 6.40 | 58.57% | ― | 9.67% | 399.06% | |
67 Neutral | $3.46B | 6.40 | 52.38% | ― | 25.94% | 1920.11% | |
66 Neutral | $11.73B | 9.04 | 19.16% | 0.90% | 6.14% | 25.38% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
56 Neutral | $7.13B | -7.49 | -15.23% | 6.42% | 4.14% | 52.63% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AA
Alcoa
44.64
12.27
37.89%
CENX
Century Aluminum
39.10
11.75
42.96%
CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs
12.07
0.32
2.72%
KALU
Kaiser Aluminum
150.94
76.90
103.87%
RS
Reliance Steel
384.65
103.54
36.83%
CSTM
Constellium
25.50
10.24
67.10%
Alcoa Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Alcoa Poised to Acquire South32 Aluminium Assets
Positive
Sep 11, 2026
On September 10, 2026, South32 Limited issued a notice of meeting and explanatory memorandum for its October 15, 2026 annual general meeting, where shareholders will vote on several governance and remuneration resolutions and on a proposed sale of...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Alcoa Prices $2.6 Billion Notes to Fund Acquisition
Positive
Sep 10, 2026
On September 9, 2026, Alcoa announced it had priced a $2.6 billion offering of senior notes through wholly owned subsidiaries Alumina Pty Ltd and Alcoa Nederland Holding B.V., with maturities in 2034 and 2036 and guarantees on a senior unsecured b...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Alcoa Announces $2.6 Billion Notes for AliGroup Deal
Positive
Sep 9, 2026
On September 9, 2026, Alcoa announced a proposed $2.6 billion senior notes offering, split between 2034 notes issued by Alumina Pty Ltd and 2036 notes issued by Alcoa Nederland Holding B.V., both wholly owned subsidiaries. The proceeds, combined w...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Alcoa Announces Major Acquisition of South32 Aluminum Assets
Positive
Jul 2, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Alcoa entered into an Umbrella Implementation Deed to acquire South32 Limited’s interests in bauxite mine, alumina refinery and aluminum smelter operations, in a transaction valued at $3.1 billion in cash plus about 17 mill...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Alcoa to Acquire South32 Aluminum Assets Worldwide
Positive
Jul 1, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Alcoa announced a definitive agreement to acquire South32’s interests in key bauxite mines, alumina refineries, and aluminum smelters in Australia, Brazil, and South Africa for approximately $4.1 billion in cash and stock, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.