Alcoa AI Stock Analysis
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Alcoa (AA) AI Stock Analysis
Alcoa
(NYSE:AA)
The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance (stronger TTM margins, cash generation, and a supportive equity base) and a cheap valuation (low P/E). These positives are tempered by weak technicals (price below all major moving averages with negative MACD) and some operational/regulatory and cost headwinds discussed on the earnings call (carbon cost pressure, mining approval delays, and metal-price sensitivity).
Alcoa Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Sales by SegmentBreaks down revenue from each business unit, offering insights into which segments are performing well and contributing most to overall growth.
Aluminum is the clear cash‑and‑margin engine—sustained shipment and revenue strength is funding operations and the aggressive South32 deal—while alumina and bauxite remain volatile and episodically impaired by site disruptions (Pinjarra, gas outages) and spiking input costs, prompting lower alumina guidance. That mix raises a two‑track thesis: aluminum performance can support cash generation and deal synergies, but near‑term earnings and leverage hinge on alumina stability, energy/carbon trends, and successful transaction execution (ticking fees/CVR risks).
The FlyAlcoa (AA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $10.83B
- Dividend Yield
- 0.97%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 4.50M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 7.0
- Beta (1Y)
- 1.53
- Revenue Growth
- 10.27%
- EPS Growth
- 32.09%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 14,900
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Sector Strength
- 61
- Industry
- Aluminum
Alcoa Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alcoa Corporation stands as a global industrial leader, primarily focused on the production and sale of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products. Its extensive operations span multiple continents, including North America (United States, Canada), Europ...
How the Company Makes Money
Alcoa makes money primarily by producing and selling commodity-grade aluminum inputs across three main product lines: (1) bauxite, (2) alumina, and (3) primary aluminum. Revenue is generated from sales to external customers under a mix of contract st...
Alcoa Earnings Call Summary
The call was predominantly positive, supported by strong operational execution, production records, improved Pinjarra performance, solid cash generation, favorable alumina and aluminum market fundamentals, progress on the AliGroup acquisition, and the Massena East monetization agreement. However, management also addressed a fatality, lower metal prices, sequentially lower adjusted net income, higher carbon costs, mining approval delays, softer Chinese alumina conditions, and uncertainty around supply recovery. The highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
For the full year, Alcoa made only minor adjustments for transformation expenses, depreciation, interest expense and capital expenditures; for the fourth quarter, it expects higher production and shipments in both segments, while alumina performance elements are expected to be flat, excluding pricing, with maintenance moving between regions completely covered by improved shipment performance, and Aluminum costs are expected to increase by $30 million, including about $10 million more in carbon prices. The company expects to release about 10 days at least of working capital going into the fourth quarter, expects Western Australia mining approvals by mid-2027 after incorporating an additional 6 months of mining in current areas, and is thinking that probably 1.5 million metric tons of smelting capacity will come online in Indonesia next year against a 75 million metric ton market.
Alcoa Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials are materially improved in the TTM versus 2022–2024, with stronger profitability (net margin ~10.7%, EBITDA margin ~16.9%) and a solid balance sheet (equity $8.25B; debt-to-equity ~0.45–0.55 in 2024–2025). The main constraint is cyclicality and volatility (loss in 2023, near break-even in 2024) plus higher absolute debt in TTM, which can amplify downside if aluminum/alumina pricing or costs move against the company.
Income Statement
74PositiveBalance Sheet
78PositiveCash Flow
67Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 14.31B | 12.83B | 12.18B | 10.71B | 12.76B | 12.44B |
| Gross Profit | 3.14B | 2.17B | 1.50B | 241.00M | 1.93B | 2.62B |
| EBITDA | 2.42B | 1.84B | 1.09B | 155.00M | 1.43B | 2.06B |
| Net Income | 1.53B | 1.16B | 60.00M | -651.00M | -123.00M | 429.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 20.36B | 16.13B | 14.06B | 14.15B | 14.76B | 15.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.41B | 1.74B | 1.14B | 944.00M | 1.36B | 1.81B |
| Total Debt | 4.82B | 2.75B | 2.82B | 1.97B | 1.87B | 1.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 12.12B | 9.94B | 8.91B | 8.31B | 8.17B | 8.74B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.24B | 6.12B | 5.16B | 4.25B | 5.08B | 4.67B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 758.00M | 567.00M | 42.00M | -440.00M | 342.00M | 530.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.44B | 1.19B | 622.00M | 91.00M | 822.00M | 920.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -766.00M | -502.00M | -608.00M | -585.00M | -495.00M | 565.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.08B | -261.00M | 201.00M | 57.00M | -768.00M | -1.16B |
Alcoa Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 41.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.98, below the 50-day MA of 42.90, and below the 200-day MA of 55.28, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.62 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AA.
Alcoa Risk Analysis
Alcoa disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alcoa reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
3 New RisksAlcoa Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
RS77Outperform
CSTM75Outperform
CENX71Outperform- AA69Neutral
KALU59Neutral
CLF58Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RS | 77Outperform | $21.76B | 19.91 | 15.07% | 1.15% | 24.75% | 56.89% |
| CSTM | 75Outperform | $3.02B | 5.44 | 49.37% | ― | 26.10% | 417.58% |
| CENX | 71Outperform | $3.61B | 4.07 | 70.01% | ― | 18.65% | 911.39% |
| AA | 69Neutral | $10.55B | 7.01 | 21.40% | 0.97% | 10.27% | 32.09% |
| Sector * | 61Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
| KALU | 59Neutral | $1.80B | 8.47 | 24.13% | 2.71% | 40.43% | 136.99% |
| CLF | 58Neutral | $7.34B | -14.76 | -8.14% | ― | 8.10% | 75.20% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | Alcoa Corporation | 41.04 | 3.15 | 8.30% | |
| CENX | Century Aluminum Co | 36.71 | 7.67 | 26.41% | |
| CLF | Cleveland-Cliffs | 13.14 | 2.63 | 25.02% | |
| KALU | Kaiser Aluminum | 113.57 | 21.99 | 24.01% | |
| RS | Reliance Steel & Aluminum | 429.88 | 160.48 | 59.57% | |
| CSTM | Constellium NV | 23.01 | 7.36 | 47.03% |
Alcoa Corporate Events
Alcoa Completes $2.6 Billion Senior Notes Offering
PositiveOn September 23, 2026, Alcoa, through its wholly owned subsidiaries Alumina Pty Ltd and Alcoa Nederland Holding B.V., completed a $2.6 billion private placement of senior unsecured notes, split between 6.625% notes due 2034 and 6.875% notes due 2036,...
Alcoa Poised to Acquire South32 Aluminium Assets
PositiveOn September 10, 2026, South32 Limited issued a notice of meeting and explanatory memorandum for its October 15, 2026 annual general meeting, where shareholders will vote on several governance and remuneration resolutions and on a proposed sale of mo...
Alcoa Prices $2.6 Billion Notes to Fund Acquisition
PositiveOn September 9, 2026, Alcoa announced it had priced a $2.6 billion offering of senior notes through wholly owned subsidiaries Alumina Pty Ltd and Alcoa Nederland Holding B.V., with maturities in 2034 and 2036 and guarantees on a senior unsecured basi...
Alcoa Announces $2.6 Billion Notes for AliGroup Deal
PositiveOn September 9, 2026, Alcoa announced a proposed $2.6 billion senior notes offering, split between 2034 notes issued by Alumina Pty Ltd and 2036 notes issued by Alcoa Nederland Holding B.V., both wholly owned subsidiaries. The proceeds, combined with...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 16, 2026