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Constellium NV (CSTM)
:CSTM
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Constellium (CSTM) AI Stock Analysis

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CSTM

Constellium

(NYSE:CSTM)

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Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▼(-2.58% Downside)
Constellium's overall stock score reflects moderate financial performance with significant leverage and liquidity concerns. The positive technical indicators and improved earnings guidance are offset by high valuation risks and declining net income. The company's strategic focus on cost controls and strong packaging demand are positive, but challenges in key segments like automotive and aerospace weigh on the outlook.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The 9% revenue growth indicates strong demand and effective pricing strategies, suggesting a robust market position and potential for sustained growth.
Packaging Segment Performance
The packaging segment's strong performance reflects growing demand and market share, supporting long-term revenue stability and profitability.
Adjusted EBITDA Target Raised
Raising the EBITDA target demonstrates confidence in operational efficiency and cost management, indicating potential for improved profitability.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage can constrain financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.
Net Income Decline
The decline in net income suggests challenges in maintaining profitability, which could affect investor confidence and long-term financial health.
Automotive Segment Weakness
Weakness in the automotive segment indicates potential market challenges, affecting revenue and growth prospects in a key business area.

Constellium (CSTM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Constellium Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionConstellium SE, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of specialty rolled and extruded aluminum products for the packaging, aerospace, and automotive end-markets. The company operates through three segments: Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products, Aerospace & Transportation, and Automotive Structures & Industry. The Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products segment produces rolled aluminum products, including can stock and closure stock for the beverage and food industry, as well as foil stock for the flexible packaging market. It also supplies automotive body sheets and heat exchangers for the automotive market; and specialty reflective sheets. The Aerospace & Transportation segment provides rolled aluminum products, including aerospace plates, sheets, and extrusions; and aerospace wing skins, as well as plates and sheets for use in transportation, industry, and defense applications. The Automotive Structures & Industry segment offers extruded products and technologically advanced structures for the automotive industry, including crash-management systems, body structures, side impact beams, and battery enclosures; and hard and soft alloy extruded profiles for various industry applications in the automotive, engineering, rail, and other transportation end markets. This segment also provides downstream technology and services, which include pre-machining, surface treatment, research and development, and technical support services. The company sells its products directly or through distributors in France, Germany, the Czech Republic, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and the United States, as well as Shanghai, and Seoul. Constellium SE was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
How the Company Makes MoneyConstellium generates revenue primarily through the sale of its aluminum products, which include rolled products, extrusions, and specialized solutions tailored for the automotive and aerospace sectors. The company operates on a business model that focuses on long-term contracts and partnerships with major customers, ensuring stable revenue streams. Key revenue sources include the automotive sector, where Constellium supplies aluminum solutions for vehicle lightweighting, and the aerospace sector, providing essential components for aircraft manufacturing. Additionally, Constellium benefits from its strategic collaborations with leading companies in its target markets, enhancing its market presence and driving sales growth. The company's commitment to innovation and sustainability also positions it favorably in securing contracts that prioritize eco-friendly materials and manufacturing processes.

Constellium Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
While Constellium reported strong revenue growth and free cash flow, challenges persist in the automotive and aerospace segments. Packaging remains a strong performer, and the company has raised its adjusted EBITDA guidance. However, net income has declined significantly compared to last year, and the automotive segment faces ongoing weakness.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Revenue of $2.1 billion increased 9% compared to the second quarter of 2024, driven by higher shipments and favorable price and mix.
Free Cash Flow and Share Buyback
Strong free cash flow of $41 million in the quarter, with $35 million returned to shareholders through the repurchase of 3.4 million shares.
Packaging Segment Performance
Packaging shipments increased 14% in the quarter versus last year, driven by healthy demand in both North America and Europe.
Adjusted EBITDA Target Raised
Adjusted EBITDA excluding noncash impact of metal price lag is now targeted in the range of $620 million to $650 million for 2025.
Negative Updates
Net Income Decline
Net income of $36 million in the quarter, significantly down from $77 million in the second quarter of last year.
Automotive Segment Weakness
Automotive shipments decreased 14% in the quarter, with continued weakness in both North America and Europe.
Aerospace and Transportation Segment Challenges
Adjusted EBITDA for A&T segment decreased 13% compared to last year, with aerospace shipments down 12% due to excess inventory.
Adjusted EBITDA Decline in AS&I Segment
Adjusted EBITDA of $18 million decreased 40% compared to the second quarter of last year, with volume headwinds in automotive.
Company Guidance
During Constellium's second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided updated guidance, highlighting a positive outlook despite some ongoing challenges. The CEO, Jean-Marc Germain, reported a recordable case rate of 1.8 per million hours worked year-to-date, aiming for a target of 1.5. Shipments increased by 2% to 384,000 tons, with revenue up 9% to $2.1 billion, driven by higher shipments and favorable pricing. However, net income dropped to $36 million from $77 million the previous year. Adjusted EBITDA was $146 million, affected by a $13 million negative impact from metal price lag, but excluding this, it stood at $159 million. Free cash flow was robust at $41 million, and $35 million was returned to shareholders through share repurchases. The company expects leverage to decrease from the current 3.6x, aiming for a range of 1.5 to 2.5x over time. Despite weak demand in several markets, Constellium raised its 2025 guidance, targeting adjusted EBITDA of $620-650 million and free cash flow exceeding $120 million, buoyed by strong packaging demand, cost controls, and favorable scrap spreads.

Constellium Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Constellium shows strong operational efficiency with robust gross profit and EBIT margins. However, high leverage and negative free cash flow pose financial risks, despite signs of revenue recovery.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Constellium's revenue shows a mixed trend with a slight decline in recent years, but the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data presents an improvement, indicating potential recovery. The gross profit margin is strong at 37.2% for TTM, suggesting efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is modest at 1.7% for the same period, reflecting challenges in achieving higher profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, with TTM figures at 32.5% and 5.3%, respectively, indicating operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The company's balance sheet highlights a high debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 2.54 for TTM, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. Return on equity is moderate at 16.2% for TTM, reflecting reasonable profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 14.8% for the same period, suggesting limited equity financing and potential vulnerability during financial downturns.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Constellium's cash flow analysis reveals challenges, particularly with negative free cash flow in recent periods, including TTM at -$105 million. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.38 for TTM, suggesting adequate cash conversion from earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating issues in sustaining capital expenditures and operational cash requirements.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue7.64B7.08B7.24B7.97B6.15B4.88B
Gross Profit1.05B905.45M710.00M899.35M664.00M490.00M
EBITDA543.88M530.91M605.00M592.09M764.00M454.00M
Net Income40.06M54.06M125.00M301.00M257.00M-21.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.37B4.73B4.66B4.94B4.62B4.13B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments133.00M141.00M210.00M165.68M147.00M478.00M
Total Debt2.03B1.94B1.87B2.06B2.13B2.39B
Total Liabilities4.57B4.01B3.80B4.19B4.33B4.23B
Stockholders Equity799.00M681.50M843.00M731.00M274.00M-115.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-142.08M-108.11M169.00M178.00M125.00M152.00M
Operating Cash Flow256.74M301.00M506.00M451.00M357.00M334.00M
Investing Cash Flow-277.88M-313.00M-288.00M-270.00M-221.00M-176.00M
Financing Cash Flow-67.00M-61.00M-177.00M-163.00M-435.00M101.00M

Constellium Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price15.91
Price Trends
50DMA
14.67
Positive
100DMA
14.07
Positive
200DMA
12.24
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.17
Negative
RSI
59.93
Neutral
STOCH
58.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CSTM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.23, above the 50-day MA of 14.67, and above the 200-day MA of 12.24, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CSTM.

Constellium Risk Analysis

Constellium disclosed 9 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Constellium reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Constellium Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$2.60B163.861.79%0.43%5.55%-79.38%
73
Outperform
$9.39B9.3020.01%1.12%21.32%
71
Outperform
$1.24B19.708.89%3.86%4.62%56.04%
66
Neutral
$2.83B29.6017.74%15.39%-47.91%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
61
Neutral
$1.95B-106.83%-14.45%49.92%
58
Neutral
$2.11B79.673.02%2.52%-83.35%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CSTM
Constellium
15.91
1.07
7.21%
AA
Alcoa
35.75
-5.80
-13.96%
MTRN
Materion
128.68
22.11
20.75%
CENX
Century Aluminum
31.91
14.20
80.18%
KALU
Kaiser Aluminum
80.00
10.96
15.87%
NGVT
Ingevity
55.65
20.14
56.72%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 14, 2025