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Gerdau SA
(NYSE:GGB)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▲(14.68% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/28/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial resilience (conservative leverage and improving TTM profitability/free cash flow) and a constructive earnings-call outlook (strong North America margins, strong cash generation, and project-driven benefits expected into 2027). These positives are tempered by weak technicals (price below key moving averages with low RSI/Stoch) and a valuation that is only moderately supported by the dividend given the current P/E for a cyclical steel business.
Positive Factors
North America Competitive Strength
North America is a durable earnings anchor, combining high margins with resilient demand across renewable energy, data centers and infrastructure. Its strong backlog and mills operating near capacity support sustained utilization, helping offset weaker conditions in other regions over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Brazil Import and Oversupply Pressure
Persistent imports and excess domestic steel supply can restrain realized prices, volumes and mill utilization in Brazil. Because management says profitability remains below an adequate level, this pressure may continue weighing on the Brazilian segment until trade defenses or market demand improve.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
North America Competitive Strength
North America is a durable earnings anchor, combining high margins with resilient demand across renewable energy, data centers and infrastructure. Its strong backlog and mills operating near capacity support sustained utilization, helping offset weaker conditions in other regions over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Gerdau SA (GGB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.27B
Dividend Yield3.34%
Average Volume (3M)14.54M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.7
Beta (1Y)1.15
Revenue Growth10.25%
EPS Growth4.20%
CountryUS
Employees30,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.38
Shares Outstanding1,261,042,400
10 Day Avg. Volume17,071,609
30 Day Avg. Volume14,543,594
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.43
Price to Book (P/B)0.76
Price to Sales (P/S)0.58
P/FCF Ratio35.70
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.35
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.16
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.08
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.16
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.95Price Target Upside36.47% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.71B
Gerdau SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Gerdau S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer company. It operates through Brazil Business, North America Business, and South America Business segments. The company offers rebars, bars, wires, thick plates, hot rolled c...
How the Company Makes Money
Gerdau makes money mainly by producing steel and selling it to customers in end markets such as construction, infrastructure, industrial manufacturing, and automotive supply chains. Its core revenue stream is the sale of long steel products (inclu...
Gerdau SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 26, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive, driven by record-high or multi-year-high margins, strong North American demand, substantial free cash flow, shareholder returns, low leverage, expanded liquidity, and positive credit-rating momentum. The main challenges were continued import and oversupply pressure in Brazil, weak South American performance, seasonal and project-ramp-up headwinds, and risks related to trade agreements and future North American demand. Management nevertheless emphasized ongoing operational improvements, selective investment, and a plan to improve Brazilian profitability.Positive Updates
Strong North America Operating Performance
North America delivered an EBITDA margin of 27.7%, described as the highest in 4 years, supported by resilient demand in key markets and very strong operating performance at the region's facilities.
Negative Updates
Brazilian Market Remains Under Import and Oversupply Pressure
Brazil continues to face pressure from steel imports and an oversupply of steel in the local market. Management also reported a slowdown in domestic demand due to typical year-end seasonality and other factors.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong North America Operating Performance
North America delivered an EBITDA margin of 27.7%, described as the highest in 4 years, supported by resilient demand in key markets and very strong operating performance at the region's facilities.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Gerdau expects an important portion of the Miguel Burnier benefit to be captured throughout 2027, but not the full benefit, with the benefit in 2027 probably very close to “something around BRL 400 million”; the project is the “big lever” and “main driver” for the Brazil segment in 2027. Midlothian and its additions of productive capacity are expected to be “fully noticed throughout 2027,” “considering that we do not have any setbacks.” For 2026, CapEx disbursement is now “closer to BRL 4 billion rather than BRL 4.5 billion or BRL 4.7 billion,” while a “level close to $4.5 billion” was described as “a reasonable number for the coming years”; the company has not updated guidance and sees “an upside risk thinking about free cash flow generation.” In North America, steel products guidance is for “margin stability” in the fourth quarter, and the current level of margins and results “can be maintained.” South America’s results are expected to remain “very close to the results we have in the Peruvian operation,” which “oscillates mid-teens, low teens,” or “something close to 15% on a recurring basis.”Gerdau SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 70.25B | 69.86B | 67.03B | 68.92B | 82.41B | 78.35B |
| Gross Profit | 10.32B | 7.97B | 9.20B | 11.33B | 18.75B | 20.82B |
| EBITDA | 9.65B | 7.57B | 9.39B | 13.23B | 19.69B | 23.99B |
| Net Income | 2.71B | 1.39B | 4.57B | 7.50B | 11.43B | 15.49B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 83.95B | 81.69B | 86.81B | 74.89B | 73.80B | 73.81B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.04B | 6.37B | 8.28B | 5.34B | 5.43B | 6.79B |
| Total Debt | 15.48B | 15.57B | 14.92B | 12.20B | 13.66B | 14.98B |
| Total Liabilities | 29.10B | 27.89B | 28.64B | 25.65B | 27.50B | 31.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | 54.66B | 53.59B | 57.95B | 49.06B | 46.12B | 42.60B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.91B | 1.13B | 5.43B | 5.80B | 6.67B | 9.32B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.89B | 7.99B | 11.38B | 11.14B | 11.15B | 12.52B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.28B | -7.57B | -5.03B | -5.77B | -4.46B | -3.00B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.36B | -1.72B | -2.69B | -4.13B | -8.26B | -9.98B |
Gerdau SA Technical Analysis
Negative
4.36
Price Trends
4.88
Negative
4.72
Negative
4.42
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.04
Positive
34.37
Neutral
14.40
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GGB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.02, below the 50-day MA of 4.88, and below the 200-day MA of 4.42, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.40 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GGB.
Gerdau SA Risk Analysis
Gerdau SA disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Gerdau SA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Gerdau SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $61.66B | 17.28 | 16.47% | 0.82% | 21.79% | 121.03% | |
76 Outperform | $35.55B | 18.37 | 20.97% | 0.84% | 26.00% | 79.81% | |
69 Neutral | $7.06B | 10.86 | 14.62% | 1.23% | 20.46% | 658.36% | |
66 Neutral | $10.58B | 14.90 | 5.77% | 4.08% | -0.65% | 18.90% | |
63 Neutral | $8.27B | 14.72 | 5.06% | 3.34% | 10.25% | 4.20% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
44 Neutral | $1.07B | -2.39 | -18.55% | 12.27% | 9.29% | -26.44% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GGB
Gerdau SA
4.51
1.17
35.07%
CMC
Commercial Metals Company
64.16
4.98
8.41%
SID
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional
0.80
-0.95
-54.06%
NUE
Nucor
271.79
123.78
83.63%
STLD
Steel Dynamics
249.99
93.49
59.74%
TX
Ternium SA
53.92
20.38
60.78%
Gerdau SA Corporate Events
Gerdau Posts Strong 3Q26 Earnings on North American Strength and Robust Cash Generation
Oct 27, 2026
On October 27, 2026, Gerdau reported third-quarter 2026 results marked by strong performance in North America and a gradual improvement in Brazil, despite continued import pressure and high steel supply. Shipments totaled 2.9 million tonnes of ste...
Gerdau S.A. Posts Higher Assets in September 2026 Interim Balance Sheet
Oct 26, 2026
Gerdau S.A. is a Brazil-based steel producer and one of Latin America’s largest suppliers of long steel, specialty steels and related products for construction, industrial and agricultural markets. The company operates internationally, with ...
Gerdau Lifts Q3 2026 Profitability on North American Strength, Launches New Recycling Unit
Oct 26, 2026
In the third quarter of 2026, Gerdau reported a sharp improvement in profitability, posting adjusted EBITDA of R$3.8 billion and a margin of 20.2%, the highest since mid-2023, driven chiefly by higher realized prices and strong demand in North Ame...
Gerdau Approves Interim 2026 Dividends for Local Shares and ADRs
Oct 26, 2026
On October 26, 2026, Gerdau S.A. and Metalúrgica Gerdau S.A. announced that their boards had approved interim dividend payments as an advance on the minimum distribution for the 2026 fiscal year. The decision reflects a continued commitment t...
Gerdau Secures Expanded US$1.125 Billion Global Working Capital Facility
Sep 1, 2026
On August 31, 2026, Gerdau S.A., Metalúrgica Gerdau S.A. and several affiliated companies entered into a new Senior Unsecured Global Working Capital Credit Agreement to reinforce their liquidity. The move reflects the group’s ongoing st...
Gerdau Completes R$150 Million Acquisition of COPEL’s Stake in Dona Francisca Energética
Aug 6, 2026
Gerdau S.A., the Brazilian steelmaker listed in São Paulo and New York, has reinforced its strategy of integrating renewable power into its operations by increasing its stake in energy generation assets. The move is part of a broader effort t...
Gerdau Delivers Strong 2Q26 Results and Boosts Energy Self-Generation
Aug 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026, Gerdau reported strong second‑quarter 2026 results, highlighted by shipment growth in Brazil and North America, a 16% quarter‑on‑quarter increase in adjusted EBITDA to R$3.4 billion, and a 45% rise in adjusted ...
Gerdau Posts Stronger 2Q26 Results, Boosts Payouts and Energy Self-Sufficiency
Aug 4, 2026
Brazilian steel producer Gerdau S.A. reported improved results for the second quarter of 2026, with steel shipments rising 3% quarter-on-quarter to 2.9 million tonnes and net sales up 7% to R$17.9 billion. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 16% versus the pr...
Gerdau Announces Interim 2026 Dividends for Local Shares and ADRs
Aug 4, 2026
On August 4, 2026, Gerdau S.A. and Metalúrgica Gerdau S.A. approved interim dividend payments as an advance on the minimum dividend for the 2026 fiscal year, covering common, preferred and ADR shares. Record dates fall on August 19 for local ...
Gerdau Files Mid‑Year 2026 Interim Financials with U.S. SEC
Aug 4, 2026
On August 4, 2026, Gerdau S.A. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, presenting unaudited condensed consolidated interim financial statements as of June 30, 2026. The filing provides U.S. investors with updated visibil...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.