Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)
NYSE:CLF
Want to see CLF full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Cleveland-Cliffs
(NYSE:CLF)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$15.00
▲(50.91% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/03/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (losses and negative operating/free cash flow) and increased leverage, which raise execution and cyclical risk. Technicals are supportive with strong trend/momentum but look overextended, while the latest earnings call provides a meaningful offset via improving pricing/shipments and expected positive free cash flow in Q2.
Positive Factors
Market position & demand
A full order book and extended lead times, alongside increasing automotive OEM demand and evidence of steel-for-aluminum substitution, indicate durable demand and pricing leverage. This supports sustained shipments, higher utilization and improved margin realization over coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Negative cash generation
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow means the company must rely on liquidity, asset sales or external financing to cover capex and working capital. This constrains strategic flexibility, raises refinancing dependency and magnifies vulnerability during industry downturns over the next several months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Market position & demand
A full order book and extended lead times, alongside increasing automotive OEM demand and evidence of steel-for-aluminum substitution, indicate durable demand and pricing leverage. This supports sustained shipments, higher utilization and improved margin realization over coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.23B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)18.90M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.03
Revenue Growth1.58%
EPS Growth3.88%
CountryUS
Employees30,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.39
Shares Outstanding570,414,700
10 Day Avg. Volume21,803,198
30 Day Avg. Volume18,899,780
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.05
Price to Book (P/B)1.07
Price to Sales (P/S)0.35
P/FCF Ratio-6.39
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.88
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.82
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-29.31
Enterprise Value/Ebitda115.49
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.63Price Target Upside6.96% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)$20.74B
Cleveland-Cliffs Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. operates as a flat-rolled steel producer in North America. The company offers carbon steel products, such as hot-rolled, cold-rolled, electrogalvanized, hot-dip galvanized, hot-dip galvannealed, aluminized, enameling, and adv...
How the Company Makes Money
Cleveland-Cliffs makes money primarily by selling steel products and related materials/services to industrial customers, with revenue largely driven by shipment volumes, product mix, and realized selling prices tied to a combination of contract te...
Cleveland-Cliffs Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 20, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Jul 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a constructive outlook: clear signs of market strength (rising realized prices, recovering shipments, full order book, solid liquidity and expected positive free cash flow in Q2) outweigh several identifiable near-term headwinds (an $80M energy-related EBITDA hit in Q1, working capital build, higher scrap/fuel costs, Stelco pricing discount and Q2 outages). Management positions most negatives as transitory, highlights multiple levers for improved profitability (pricing realization lag easing over coming quarters, operational optimizations, asset sales, DOE modernization), and remains confident in execution and cash generation over the remainder of the year.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Recovery
Adjusted EBITDA was $95 million in Q1, a year-over-year improvement of $274 million, driven primarily by increased pricing and operating leverage.
Negative Updates
Q1 Energy Spike Hit
An extreme cold-weather-driven energy price spike and higher electricity/industrial gas costs created an $80 million negative impact to Q1 EBITDA versus historical expectations; natural gas locks and volatile power directly affected integrated plants in unregulated states.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Recovery
Adjusted EBITDA was $95 million in Q1, a year-over-year improvement of $274 million, driven primarily by increased pricing and operating leverage.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said results should steadily improve through 2026: Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $95 million (up $274 million YoY) on shipments just over 4.1 million tons (a >300k ton sequential recovery), and they expect Q2 shipments to rise and remain above 4.1M with selling prices roughly $60/ton higher Q1→Q2 (Q1 prices were +$68/ton YoY and +$55/ton sequential); U.S. mix is ~45% HRC-linked and contract mix ~43% fixed, 23% monthly-indexed, 7% quarter-lag, 12% U.S. spot and 15% Stelco spot (Canadian selling prices are ~40% below U.S.); Q1 bore an $80M energy-related EBITDA hit and a ~$130M working-capital build, but management expects Q2 to be the best quarter in nearly two years and a return to meaningful positive free cash flow, with costs expected to tick up ~ $15/ton in Q2 (outages) before falling meaningfully in the back half and Q3 (an outage-light quarter) showing full operating leverage as full-year shipments target ~16.5–17.0 million tons; diesel/freight pressures add roughly $50M/year to mining costs (~$6/ton, ~25M gallons diesel/year), natural gas in mining is ~20% of usage, liquidity remains above $3 billion, and management continues to expect $425M of idle-property sale proceeds (≈$70M received to date, with ~ $50M expected in Q2, ~$100M in Q3 and the remainder in Q4).Cleveland-Cliffs Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
25
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 18.90B | 18.61B | 19.18B | 22.00B | 22.99B | 20.44B |
| Gross Profit | -528.00M | -763.00M | 70.00M | 1.39B | 2.52B | 4.53B |
| EBITDA | 134.00M | -45.00M | 378.00M | 1.86B | 3.11B | 5.04B |
| Net Income | -1.21B | -1.48B | -754.00M | 399.00M | 1.33B | 2.99B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 20.11B | 20.01B | 20.95B | 17.54B | 18.75B | 18.98B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 45.00M | 57.00M | 54.00M | 198.00M | 26.00M | 48.00M |
| Total Debt | 7.76B | 8.17B | 7.77B | 3.59B | 4.70B | 5.80B |
| Total Liabilities | 14.10B | 13.69B | 14.05B | 9.41B | 10.71B | 13.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.82B | 6.12B | 6.66B | 7.89B | 7.79B | 5.49B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -997.00M | -1.02B | -590.00M | 1.59B | 1.48B | 2.08B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -436.00M | -462.00M | 105.00M | 2.23B | 2.42B | 2.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -474.00M | -479.00M | -3.21B | -591.00M | -936.00M | -1.38B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 897.00M | 942.00M | 2.97B | -1.47B | -1.51B | -1.47B |
Cleveland-Cliffs Technical Analysis
Positive
9.94
Price Trends
10.39
Positive
10.99
Positive
11.60
Positive
Market Momentum
1.10
Negative
72.69
Negative
87.03
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CLF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.88, below the 50-day MA of 10.39, and below the 200-day MA of 11.60, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.69 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.03 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CLF.
Cleveland-Cliffs Risk Analysis
Cleveland-Cliffs disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cleveland-Cliffs reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Cleveland-Cliffs Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $39.93B | 28.34 | 15.25% | 1.11% | 10.44% | 23.34% | |
67 Neutral | $59.73B | 24.98 | 11.16% | 1.34% | 12.27% | 79.72% | |
64 Neutral | $8.46B | 16.29 | 11.88% | 1.02% | 8.38% | 626.64% | |
63 Neutral | $53.26B | 17.77 | 5.35% | 1.03% | -1.31% | 149.74% | |
62 Neutral | $8.64B | 30.87 | 2.53% | 2.92% | 4.46% | -47.34% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
52 Neutral | $8.23B | -6.29 | -20.91% | ― | 1.58% | 3.88% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs
13.53
5.93
78.03%
MT
ArcelorMittal
67.21
37.39
125.42%
CMC
Commercial Metals Company
74.15
24.83
50.33%
GGB
Gerdau SA
4.59
1.71
59.38%
NUE
Nucor
254.39
134.64
112.43%
STLD
Steel Dynamics
268.50
136.72
103.75%
Cleveland-Cliffs Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Cleveland-Cliffs Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 20, 2026
At its May 14, 2026 annual meeting, Cleveland-Cliffs shareholders elected all board nominees, including CEO Lourenco Goncalves, to terms running through the 2027 annual meeting, with more than a majority of votes cast in favor of each director. Sh...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.