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Steel Dynamics
(NASDAQ:STLD)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$264.00
â–²(14.25% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/18/26
STLD scores well on operating momentum and forward outlook from the latest earnings call (record shipments, strong EBITDA, and guidance for stronger H2 2026/2027), supported by a sound balance sheet. The score is held back by weaker cash conversion/working-capital sensitivity in cash flows, mixed near-term technical momentum (negative MACD), and a valuation profile (P/E ~22, ~0.84% yield) that is not particularly forgiving for a cyclical business.
Positive Factors
Integrated EAF, recycling and fabrication model
This integrated operating model spans scrap processing, steel production, and value-added fabrication, allowing STLD to capture economics across multiple stages of the supply chain. The combination supports raw-material sourcing, product diversification, and customer reach across construction, manufacturing, and industrial markets.
Negative Factors
Steel margins remain below prior-cycle peaks
Although profitability remains healthy for the cycle, the decline from unusually strong 2021–2023 margins shows that earnings remain sensitive to steel pricing and spreads. Normalized margins reduce the cushion available if demand weakens or input costs rise across the business.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated EAF, recycling and fabrication model
This integrated operating model spans scrap processing, steel production, and value-added fabrication, allowing STLD to capture economics across multiple stages of the supply chain. The combination supports raw-material sourcing, product diversification, and customer reach across construction, manufacturing, and industrial markets.
Read all positive factors
Steel Dynamics Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Breaks down revenue sources, providing insight into the diversity of income streams and potential vulnerabilities or growth areas.
Breaks down revenue sources, providing insight into the diversity of income streams and potential vulnerabilities or growth areas.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySteel Dynamics (STLD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$34.17B
Dividend Yield0.88%
Average Volume (3M)929.91K
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.5
Beta (1Y)1.30
Revenue Growth19.77%
EPS Growth60.80%
CountryUS
Employees14,400
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)11.07
Shares Outstanding143,328,100
10 Day Avg. Volume892,455
30 Day Avg. Volume929,914
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.12
Price to Book (P/B)2.80
Price to Sales (P/S)1.38
P/FCF Ratio49.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.08
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.79
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.24
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.31
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$271.70Price Target Upside17.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)17.45
Revenue Forecast (FY)$23.94B
Steel Dynamics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a prominent American steel manufacturer and metal recycling enterprise, conducting its operations through three distinct business divisions. The Steel Operations segment is responsible for producing a broad range of steel p...
How the Company Makes Money
Steel Dynamics makes money primarily by producing and selling steel and by processing and selling recycled metals, supplemented by downstream fabrication services. (1) Steel operations: The company generates revenue by melting scrap (and other met...
Steel Dynamics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 20, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive operational and financial picture: record steel shipments, strong adjusted EBITDA, improving steel pricing and spreads, robust fabrication demand and backlog growth, meaningful progress on the aluminum ramp with large long-term EBITDA potential, and strong liquidity and capital return activity. Notable near-term headwinds include a tragic safety incident, aluminum startup issues (including a $16 million impairment and lower-than-expected shipments in Q2), working capital drag, and trade/import uncertainties. Management provided confident forward commentary on aluminum ramp-up, expected H2 improvement, and a disciplined capital allocation approach.Positive Updates
Record Steel Shipments and Strong Profitability
Record quarterly steel shipments of 3.7 million tons; adjusted EBITDA of $921 million; net income of $534 million ($3.69 per diluted share); revenues of $6.1 billion and operating income of $700 million (sequentially higher).
Negative Updates
Workplace Fatality and Safety Concern
Tragic fatal accident in April involving a New Process Steel team member (Elijah Jones); company emphasized renewed focus on safety and goal of zero incidents.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Steel Shipments and Strong Profitability
Record quarterly steel shipments of 3.7 million tons; adjusted EBITDA of $921 million; net income of $534 million ($3.69 per diluted share); revenues of $6.1 billion and operating income of $700 million (sequentially higher).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that ramping aluminum and strong steel fundamentals should drive sharply improved results in H2 2026 and into 2027: Q2 highlights included record steel shipments of 3.7 million tons, adjusted EBITDA of $921 million, net income of $534 million ($3.69 per diluted share), revenues of $6.1 billion and operating income of $700 million (steel operating income $721 million; mills at 90% utilization vs. industry ~81%); aluminum produced 84,000 metric tons in Q2 (~50% of capability) and shipped 53,000 metric tons (up from 22,500 in Q1) with a 650,000 tpa nameplate rolling capacity, management expecting to exit 2026 at a monthly rate of at least 90% and reach full volume in 2027 while Q2 aluminum startup losses were $33 million (48% sequential improvement) and a $16 million non‑cash impairment was recorded; through‑cycle EBITDA for the aluminum platform is targeted at $650M–$700M plus $40M–$50M for metals recycling, and recent growth projects are estimated to provide over $1.4 billion of through‑cycle annual EBITDA capability; cash flow from operations was $428 million in Q2, liquidity stood at $2.0 billion (cash & investments $800M, revolver $1.2B), Q2 capex was $124M ($262M YTD) with H2 2026 capex expected to be $300M–$350M, and the company repurchased $350M of stock year‑to‑date with $489M remaining authorization—working capital increases tied to higher prices are expected to be a funding source in the back half.Steel Dynamics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 20.54B | 18.18B | 17.54B | 18.80B | 22.26B | 18.41B |
| Gross Profit | 3.00B | 2.36B | 2.80B | 4.05B | 6.12B | 5.36B |
| EBITDA | 2.98B | 2.11B | 2.52B | 3.73B | 5.50B | 4.61B |
| Net Income | 1.61B | 1.19B | 1.54B | 2.45B | 3.86B | 3.21B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 17.11B | 16.41B | 14.94B | 14.91B | 14.16B | 12.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 567.71M | 769.88M | 737.27M | 2.12B | 2.26B | 1.24B |
| Total Debt | 4.18B | 4.21B | 3.35B | 3.07B | 3.07B | 3.11B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.75B | 7.48B | 5.99B | 6.07B | 6.06B | 6.21B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.42B | 8.96B | 8.93B | 8.87B | 8.13B | 6.30B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 955.56M | 501.51M | -23.50M | 1.86B | 3.55B | 1.20B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.57B | 1.45B | 1.84B | 3.52B | 4.46B | 2.20B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -747.61M | -974.96M | -1.30B | -1.97B | -1.88B | -999.42M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -714.26M | -294.31M | -1.35B | -1.78B | -2.20B | -1.33B |
Steel Dynamics Technical Analysis
Positive
231.08
Price Trends
240.87
Negative
243.91
Negative
217.47
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.99
Negative
53.05
Neutral
63.05
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STLD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 231.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 233.55, below the 50-day MA of 240.87, and above the 200-day MA of 217.47, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.99 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STLD.
Steel Dynamics Risk Analysis
Steel Dynamics disclosed 19 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Steel Dynamics reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Steel Dynamics Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $56.79B | 19.95 | 13.53% | 0.89% | 17.19% | 126.38% | |
71 Outperform | $7.07B | 11.94 | 13.65% | 1.19% | 15.23% | 1535.96% | |
65 Neutral | $34.17B | 21.53 | 17.60% | 0.88% | 19.77% | 60.80% | |
64 Neutral | $47.77B | 26.85 | 3.31% | 1.13% | 3.25% | -27.63% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $9.49B | 30.87 | 2.53% | 2.94% | 8.98% | -21.39% | |
56 Neutral | $7.41B | -7.77 | -15.23% | 6.42% | 4.14% | 52.63% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
STLD
Steel Dynamics
238.38
94.39
65.55%
MT
ArcelorMittal
64.11
26.20
69.11%
CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs
12.98
-0.85
-6.15%
CMC
Commercial Metals Company
63.89
5.48
9.39%
GGB
Gerdau SA
5.12
1.98
63.27%
NUE
Nucor
250.33
114.95
84.90%
Steel Dynamics Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Steel Dynamics Raises Q3 Earnings Guidance on Strong Demand
Positive
Sep 18, 2026
On September 17, 2026, Steel Dynamics issued earnings guidance for the third quarter of 2026, forecasting diluted earnings per share of $5.34 to $5.38, up sharply from $3.69 in the second quarter and $2.74 a year earlier, reflecting strong pricing...
Dividends
Steel Dynamics Announces Third Quarter Cash Dividend Declaration
Positive
Aug 14, 2026
On August 14, 2026, Steel Dynamics, Inc. announced that its board of directors declared a third quarter cash dividend of $0.53 per common share, reinforcing its ongoing capital return to shareholders. The dividend will be paid to shareholders of r...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Steel Dynamics Announces CEO Transition and Leadership Reshuffle
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
Steel Dynamics announced on August 4, 2026, that long-time Chief Financial Officer Theresa E. Wagler will become president and chief executive officer on January 1, 2027, as co-founder Mark D. Millett retires from the CEO role and transitions to e...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Steel Dynamics Raises Q2 Guidance on Strong Steel Demand
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
On June 17, 2026, Steel Dynamics issued second-quarter 2026 earnings guidance of $3.51 to $3.55 per diluted share, up from $2.78 in the first quarter and $2.01 a year earlier, despite a $16 million reduction from asset write-downs tied to relocati...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.