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Toyota Motor
(NYSE:TM)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$197.00
▲(11.04% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is primarily constrained by financial performance, where negative TTM free cash flow and cash-flow volatility outweigh solid profitability and scale. Technicals are mildly supportive but not yet strong given the stock remains below longer-term moving averages. Valuation is a clear positive, with a low P/E and a healthy dividend yield helping offset the cash-flow and trend risks.
Positive Factors
Scale & Profitability
Toyota's global scale and established brands support durable operating profitability. A mid-single-digit to high-single-digit net margin across a massive revenue base provides steady earnings power, helping fund R&D and capex while sustaining competitive pricing and long-term market resilience.
Negative Factors
Negative Free Cash Flow
A negative trailing‑12‑month free cash flow figure indicates profits are not translating into discretionary cash after investments. That undermines financial flexibility for long‑term initiatives, increases reliance on financing for capex/share returns, and raises execution risk for growth programs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale & Profitability
Toyota's global scale and established brands support durable operating profitability. A mid-single-digit to high-single-digit net margin across a massive revenue base provides steady earnings power, helping fund R&D and capex while sustaining competitive pricing and long-term market resilience.
Read all positive factors
Toyota Motor Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Toyota Motor is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Toyota Motor is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyToyota Motor (TM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$219.06B
Dividend Yield3.12%
Average Volume (3M)472.35K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.8
Beta (1Y)0.78
Revenue Growth3.88%
EPS Growth4.59%
CountryUS
Employees390,927
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3558.60
Shares Outstanding1,459,498,800
10 Day Avg. Volume381,943
30 Day Avg. Volume472,350
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.81
Price to Book (P/B)1.06
Price to Sales (P/S)0.84
P/FCF Ratio72.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)19.3
Revenue Forecast (FY)$334.79B
Toyota Motor Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Toyota Motor Corporation is a multinational automotive manufacturer responsible for the design, production, assembly, and sale of a diverse range of passenger vehicles, minivans, commercial vehicles, and their associated components and accessories...
How the Company Makes Money
Toyota primarily makes money by selling vehicles and providing financing and related services. A large share of revenue is generated from wholesale and retail sales of Toyota and Lexus vehicles (passenger cars, SUVs, trucks, and commercial vehicle...
Toyota Motor Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: meaningful commercial and product milestones (record revenues > JPY 50 trillion, unit sales growth, electrified vehicle milestone, higher dividend and continued investment) were offset by substantial profitability headwinds (large unabsorbed U.S. tariff hit of JPY 1.38 trillion, material inflation and Middle East impacts) and a multi‑year decline in operating income. Management acknowledged slower progress on mid‑to‑long‑term structural reforms, outlined concrete levers (AREA35, production reorganization, value‑chain expansion, robotics and localization) and reiterated investment and dividend continuity while forecasting a roughly 20% drop in operating income in FY2027.Positive Updates
Record Consolidated Revenues and Strong Unit Sales
Consolidated sales revenues reached JPY 50,684.9 billion (≈ JPY 50.7 trillion) for FY2026. Consolidated vehicle sales were 9,595,000 units, up 2.5% year‑on‑year (102.5% y/y); Toyota & Lexus combined sales were 10,477,000 units, up 2.0% y/y (102.0% y/y).
Negative Updates
Significant Operating Income Decline and Multi‑Year Downtrend
Operating income declined by JPY 1,029.3 billion year‑on‑year in FY2026. FY2027 operating income is forecast at JPY 3.0 trillion (management cited a year‑on‑year decrease of ~JPY 766–800 billion), implying an approximate 20% decline from FY2026 and the third consecutive year of declining operating income.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Consolidated Revenues and Strong Unit Sales
Consolidated sales revenues reached JPY 50,684.9 billion (≈ JPY 50.7 trillion) for FY2026. Consolidated vehicle sales were 9,595,000 units, up 2.5% year‑on‑year (102.5% y/y); Toyota & Lexus combined sales were 10,477,000 units, up 2.0% y/y (102.0% y/y).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Toyota’s FY2026 guidance and results showed heavy metric-driven detail: consolidated vehicle sales were 9,595,000 units (102.5% YoY) and Toyota/Lexus sales 10,477,000 units (102.0% YoY), with electrified vehicle sales topping 5 million units; FY26 consolidated revenue was JPY 50,684.9 billion, operating income JPY 3,766.2 billion (down JPY 1,029.3 billion YoY), income before taxes JPY 5,152.9 billion and net income JPY 3,848.0 billion, while U.S. tariffs reduced operating income by JPY 1.38 trillion. For FY2027 management guided consolidated sales ~9.6 million units (100.1% of prior year), Toyota/Lexus ~10.5 million (100.2%), electrified vehicles ≈6 million (hybrids >5 million), BEV volume ~600,000, revenue JPY 51 trillion, operating income JPY 3.0 trillion (a decline of roughly JPY 800 billion / JPY 766.2 billion), income before taxes JPY 4,230 billion and net income JPY 3.0 trillion on FX assumptions of JPY 150/USD and JPY 180/EUR; they singled out a Middle East impact of ~JPY 670 billion (JPY 270 billion volume + JPY 400 billion materials), committed to roughly JPY 150 billion/year value‑chain growth, record R&D near JPY 1.6 trillion, flexible buybacks (no year‑end cap) and dividend increases to JPY 95/share (FY26) and JPY 100/share (FY27), while targeting sustained JPY 5 trillion earnings power and an eventual 20% ROE.Toyota Motor Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
42
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 52.61T | 50.68T | 48.04T | 45.10T | 37.15T | 31.38T |
| Gross Profit | 8.82T | 8.46T | 9.58T | 9.37T | 6.31T | 5.97T |
| EBITDA | 7.45T | 7.75T | 8.75T | 9.12T | 5.76T | 5.84T |
| Net Income | 4.54T | 3.99T | 4.77T | 4.94T | 2.45T | 2.85T |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 93.60T | 90.11T | 74.30T | 67.69T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 10.27T | 12.71T | 15.92T | 14.11T | 9.23T | 8.62T |
| Total Debt | 43.66T | 43.39T | 38.79T | 36.56T | 29.38T | 26.50T |
| Total Liabilities | 63.98T | 64.78T | 56.72T | 54.87T | 45.04T | 40.53T |
| Stockholders Equity | 37.06T | 40.09T | 35.92T | 34.22T | 28.34T | 26.25T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -870.63B | 592.05B | -1.56T | -842.02B | -750.76B | -107.63B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.14T | 5.80T | 3.70T | 4.21T | 2.96T | 3.72T |
| Investing Cash Flow | 2.01T | -1.61T | -4.19T | -5.00T | -1.60T | -577.50B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.12T | -569.02B | 197.24B | 2.50T | -56.18B | -2.47T |
Toyota Motor Technical Analysis
Positive
177.42
Price Trends
180.10
Positive
187.48
Positive
202.67
Negative
Market Momentum
2.59
Positive
61.11
Neutral
57.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 177.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 188.15, below the 50-day MA of 180.10, and below the 200-day MA of 202.67, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.59 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TM.
Toyota Motor Risk Analysis
Toyota Motor disclosed 16 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Toyota Motor reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Toyota Motor Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $219.06B | 8.82 | 11.67% | 3.38% | 3.88% | 4.59% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | $74.55B | 43.08 | 3.04% | 0.80% | -1.11% | -67.59% | |
58 Neutral | $1.39T | 292.48 | 4.58% | ― | 11.75% | -37.64% | |
54 Neutral | $57.82B | -7.53 | -18.90% | 4.18% | 1.47% | -315.47% | |
51 Neutral | $40.69B | -44.84 | -1.40% | 4.73% | 0.81% | -128.78% | |
46 Neutral | $12.53B | -48.88 | -2.49% | ― | -23.38% | -123.25% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TM
Toyota Motor
192.24
-5.03
-2.55%
F
Ford Motor
13.99
3.17
29.24%
GM
General Motors
86.15
30.15
53.85%
HMC
Honda Motor Company
32.60
-0.63
-1.88%
TSLA
Tesla
345.13
25.02
7.82%
LI
Li Auto
12.92
-10.54
-44.93%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.