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Saia
(NASDAQ:SAIA)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$390.00
▲(13.40% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/06/26
SAIA’s score is supported primarily by strong underlying financial quality (notably low leverage and solid profitability) and a constructive earnings call highlighting record revenue, improving volume trends, and pricing traction. These positives are tempered by weak technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a relatively rich valuation (P/E ~34.45 with no dividend yield provided).
Positive Factors
Low leverage and financial flexibility
Very low leverage and expanding equity give Saia financial flexibility to fund terminals, fleet and technology without relying heavily on borrowing. This resilience can support network investment through freight cycles while containing interest and refinancing pressure over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Profitability has compressed
Although profitability remains healthy, net margin has fallen to about 8.2% and EBIT margin to 11.2%, versus roughly 11–13% net margins in 2023–24. This lower earnings cushion makes sustained pricing, mix improvement and productivity essential to preserve returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Low leverage and financial flexibility
Very low leverage and expanding equity give Saia financial flexibility to fund terminals, fleet and technology without relying heavily on borrowing. This resilience can support network investment through freight cycles while containing interest and refinancing pressure over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Saia Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Workdays
Tracks the number of operating days in a period; changes in workdays affect capacity, shipments and revenue comparisons, so normalize other KPIs against workdays to see true operational trends.
Tracks the number of operating days in a period; changes in workdays affect capacity, shipments and revenue comparisons, so normalize other KPIs against workdays to see true operational trends.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySaia (SAIA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.65B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)354.98K
Price to Earnings (P/E)31.2
Beta (1Y)1.20
Revenue Growth4.84%
EPS Growth-4.34%
CountryUS
Employees14,500
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryTrucking
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)10.39
Shares Outstanding26,674,650
10 Day Avg. Volume341,020
30 Day Avg. Volume354,979
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.15
Price to Book (P/B)3.39
Price to Sales (P/S)2.70
P/FCF Ratio319.40
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$440.69Price Target Upside28.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)11.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.61B
Saia Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Saia, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a transportation company in North America. The company provides less-than-truckload services for shipments between 100 and 10,000 pounds. It also offers other value-added services, including ...
How the Company Makes Money
Saia primarily makes money by charging customers to transport freight through its less-than-truckload (LTL) network. Revenue is generated on a per-shipment basis, with pricing typically determined by factors such as shipment weight, freight class/...
Saia Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive: management reported a record quarter with strong revenue (+17.1% YoY), improving shipment and tonnage trends, operating income and EPS gains, service and safety improvements, successful network expansion and early pricing traction (10.7% renewals, 7.1% GRI). Offsetting pressures include sharply higher fuel and purchased transportation costs, wage inflation and a continued LA regional mix headwind that have raised cost per shipment and will temper near‑term operating ratio improvement. Management expects further improvement as network investments mature and pricing takes hold, while acknowledging short‑term volatility from fuel and GRI timing.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong Top-Line Growth
Q2 revenue of $956.5M, a record for any quarter and up 17.1% year‑over‑year.
Negative Updates
Elevated Fuel Costs and Higher Fuel Share
Fuel surcharge represented 22.3% of total revenue versus 14.6% last year. Fuel expense rose ~49.6% YoY driven by a ~50.3% increase in national average diesel prices, materially increasing operating cost.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong Top-Line Growth
Q2 revenue of $956.5M, a record for any quarter and up 17.1% year‑over‑year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that Q3 should see roughly a 100‑basis‑point sequential deterioration in the operating ratio (better than the typical 150–200 bps Q2→Q3 seasonal swing), assuming national average diesel holds near current levels (Q2 fuel expense was +49.6% YoY with diesel +50.3% YoY and fuel surcharge was 22.3% of Q2 revenue); July month‑to‑date shipments are tracking about +1% and tonnage +7.5% (Q2 shipments per workday +4.4%, tonnage per workday +8.4%), a 7.1% GRI was implemented in early July and contract renewals ran 10.7% for June/the quarter, management noted two recent wage increases (together roughly a ~1‑point OR impact), said Q3 assumes normal seasonal shipments for the quarter, and emphasized continued focus on pricing and mix to lift revenue per shipment (Q2 revenue per shipment ex‑fuel $303.12, +1.5% YoY; June ex‑fuel improved ~4% vs April).Saia Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.39B | 3.23B | 3.21B | 2.88B | 2.79B | 2.29B |
| Gross Profit | 546.73M | 516.62M | 644.41M | 598.93M | 590.96M | 451.69M |
| EBITDA | 632.16M | 602.41M | 695.04M | 647.61M | 627.86M | 477.69M |
| Net Income | 277.96M | 255.04M | 362.06M | 354.86M | 357.42M | 253.24M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.72B | 3.48B | 3.17B | 2.58B | 2.17B | 1.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 84.01M | 19.72M | 19.47M | 296.21M | 187.39M | 106.59M |
| Total Debt | 269.19M | 418.11M | 324.46M | 138.71M | 154.51M | 160.38M |
| Total Liabilities | 998.23M | 904.98M | 855.59M | 642.07M | 595.37M | 624.92M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.73B | 2.58B | 2.31B | 1.94B | 1.58B | 1.22B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 255.23M | 27.33M | -459.86M | 138.07M | 105.60M | 96.85M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 606.39M | 594.97M | 583.70M | 577.95M | 473.03M | 382.59M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -326.58M | -552.52M | -1.04B | -448.70M | -365.51M | -277.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -214.63M | -42.20M | 175.42M | -20.42M | -26.71M | -23.46M |
Saia Technical Analysis
Negative
343.92
Price Trends
365.82
Negative
406.59
Negative
388.77
Negative
Market Momentum
-8.10
Positive
33.17
Neutral
14.91
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SAIA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 343.92 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 345.17, below the 50-day MA of 365.82, and below the 200-day MA of 388.77, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -8.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.91 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SAIA.
Saia Risk Analysis
Saia disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Saia reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Saia Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $35.93B | 33.33 | 24.87% | 0.66% | -0.64% | 1.47% | |
68 Neutral | $8.65B | 31.21 | 10.63% | ― | 4.84% | -4.34% | |
65 Neutral | $20.28B | 50.49 | 21.57% | ― | 7.03% | 16.37% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $5.48B | 48.83 | 3.68% | 1.26% | 6.25% | -10.92% | |
58 Neutral | $2.80B | 178.80 | 1.26% | 0.38% | 3.70% | -89.58% | |
45 Neutral | $3.26B | -32.28 | -6.84% | ― | 9.53% | 71.38% |
* Industrials Sector Average
SAIA
Saia
330.25
35.60
12.08%
XPO
XPO
176.66
49.31
38.72%
ODFL
Old Dominion Freight
176.85
36.68
26.17%
ARCB
ArcBest
127.07
57.99
83.96%
SNDR
Schneider National
31.58
10.77
51.75%
RXO
RXO, Inc.
20.15
5.07
33.62%
Saia Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Saia Reports Strong LTL Freight Density Growth
Positive
Sep 3, 2026
On September 3, 2026, Saia reported operating data for July and August 2026 showing modest growth in shipments but strong gains in freight density compared with the same months in 2025. LTL shipments per workday rose 0.8% in July and 1.1% in Augus...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Saia Delivers Record Q2 Revenue and Operational Gains
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Saia reported record second-quarter revenue of $956.5 million, up 17.1% year over year, with shipments and tonnage per workday rising and operating income increasing 26% to $125 million. The operating ratio improved to 86.9%, dri...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.