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Saia
(NASDAQ:SAIA)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$542.00
▲(24.82% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/03/26
SAIA’s score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial quality (notably low leverage and solid operating cash flow) and supportive technical momentum. This is tempered by elevated valuation (high P/E) and the need for the earnings-call margin improvement outlook to overcome ongoing cost and mix headwinds.
Positive Factors
Very low leverage and strong balance sheet
Saia's extremely low debt-to-equity (~0.06 TTM) and steadily growing equity provide durable financial flexibility. Low leverage reduces interest burden, supports investment through cycles, and preserves borrowing capacity for network expansion or downturns without stressing liquidity or credit metrics.
Negative Factors
Profitability has softened versus prior cycle
Operating and net margins have meaningfully declined from 2021–2023 highs, indicating structural pressure on pricing and/or cost control. Persistently lower margins compress returns on Saia's sizeable asset base and require sustained execution to restore historical profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Very low leverage and strong balance sheet
Saia's extremely low debt-to-equity (~0.06 TTM) and steadily growing equity provide durable financial flexibility. Low leverage reduces interest burden, supports investment through cycles, and preserves borrowing capacity for network expansion or downturns without stressing liquidity or credit metrics.
Read all positive factors
Saia Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Workdays
Tracks the number of operating days in a period; changes in workdays affect capacity, shipments and revenue comparisons, so normalize other KPIs against workdays to see true operational trends.
Tracks the number of operating days in a period; changes in workdays affect capacity, shipments and revenue comparisons, so normalize other KPIs against workdays to see true operational trends.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySaia (SAIA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.48B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)403.29K
Price to Earnings (P/E)45.1
Beta (1Y)1.16
Revenue Growth0.34%
EPS Growth-20.72%
CountryUS
Employees14,500
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryTrucking
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)9.54
Shares Outstanding26,671,213
10 Day Avg. Volume525,132
30 Day Avg. Volume403,289
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.15
Price to Book (P/B)3.39
Price to Sales (P/S)2.70
P/FCF Ratio319.40
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.53
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.82
Enterprise Value/Ebitda19.00
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$473.00Price Target Upside8.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)11.39
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.58B
Saia Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Saia, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a transportation company in North America. The company provides less-than-truckload services for shipments between 100 and 10,000 pounds. It also offers other value-added services, including ...
How the Company Makes Money
Saia primarily makes money by charging businesses to transport freight shipments that are too large for parcel delivery but do not require a full truckload—i.e., LTL shipments. Revenue is generated on a per-shipment basis and is influenced by fact...
Saia Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced clear operational and strategic progress (record first-quarter revenue, improving monthly shipment momentum, safety and productivity records, strong contract renewals and sustained network investment) against near-term headwinds (lower weight per shipment, regional softness in Southern California, rising insurance/health costs, a diesel price spike that caused a ~$3.5M margin hit, and a slightly worse operating ratio). Management expressed confidence in sequential margin improvement into Q2 (400–450 bps) and continued long-term upside from network scale and technology, but tangible cost inflation and fuel volatility temper near-term results.Positive Updates
Record First-Quarter Revenue
Revenue of $806.2 million, a first-quarter record and a 2.4% year-over-year increase driven by a 1% shipment increase and higher fuel surcharge revenue.
Negative Updates
Weight and Tonnage Declines Year-Over-Year
Tonnage decreased 2.1% year-over-year, driven by a 3.1% decline in average weight per shipment, pressuring revenue per shipment excluding fuel.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record First-Quarter Revenue
Revenue of $806.2 million, a first-quarter record and a 2.4% year-over-year increase driven by a 1% shipment increase and higher fuel surcharge revenue.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Saia said it expects a material sequential margin improvement from Q1 to Q2 of roughly 400–450 basis points (versus a historical Q1→Q2 lift of ~250–300 bps), assuming normal seasonality in May–June and with upside if demand firming continues; monthly demand trends cited were Jan shipments/day -2.1% and tonnage/day -7.0%, Feb shipments/day +0.3% and tonnage/day -2.7%, Mar shipments/day +4.3% and tonnage/day +2.8%, and April-to-date shipments ~+5.5% and tonnage ~+6.5%; management reiterated seasonality-driven expectations (and that the company’s earlier full‑year OR improvement ambition—previously discussed in the 100–200 bps range—remains achievable), highlighted levers to hit guidance including network density, higher contractual renewal rates (6.7% in Q1), productivity gains (Q1 productivity +>2.5% YoY and ~+1% sequentially), and noted the plan to be free‑cash‑flow positive this year with upside if markets tighten.Saia Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.25B | 3.23B | 3.21B | 2.88B | 2.79B | 2.29B |
| Gross Profit | 643.77M | 765.19M | 644.41M | 598.93M | 590.96M | 451.69M |
| EBITDA | 603.49M | 602.41M | 695.04M | 647.61M | 627.86M | 477.69M |
| Net Income | 255.09M | 255.04M | 362.06M | 354.86M | 357.42M | 253.24M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.56B | 3.48B | 3.17B | 2.58B | 2.17B | 1.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 39.18M | 19.72M | 19.47M | 296.21M | 187.39M | 106.59M |
| Total Debt | 149.86M | 418.11M | 324.46M | 138.71M | 154.51M | 160.38M |
| Total Liabilities | 937.40M | 904.98M | 855.59M | 642.07M | 595.37M | 624.92M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.63B | 2.58B | 2.31B | 1.94B | 1.58B | 1.22B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 194.67M | 27.33M | -459.86M | 138.07M | 105.60M | 96.85M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 625.53M | 594.97M | 583.70M | 577.95M | 473.03M | 382.59M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -414.18M | -552.52M | -1.04B | -448.70M | -365.51M | -277.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -188.71M | -42.20M | 175.42M | -20.42M | -26.71M | -23.46M |
Saia Technical Analysis
Neutral
434.22
Price Trends
450.81
Negative
411.97
Positive
362.97
Positive
Market Momentum
-5.86
Positive
41.79
Neutral
13.51
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SAIA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 434.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 458.68, below the 50-day MA of 450.81, and above the 200-day MA of 362.97, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -5.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.51 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SAIA.
Saia Risk Analysis
Saia disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Saia reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Saia Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $11.48B | 45.13 | 10.04% | ― | 0.34% | -20.72% | |
64 Neutral | $12.45B | 367.61 | 0.48% | 1.34% | 1.13% | -77.50% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $6.36B | 63.67 | 3.24% | 1.40% | 5.54% | -21.38% | |
58 Neutral | $3.26B | 59.95 | 4.30% | 0.62% | -1.65% | -67.84% | |
55 Neutral | $1.43B | 98.20 | 1.89% | 2.07% | -7.81% | -33.01% | |
54 Neutral | $2.56B | -283.06 | -0.62% | 1.84% | 3.28% | -154.33% |
* Industrials Sector Average
SAIA
Saia
430.51
156.52
57.13%
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ARCB
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SNDR
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36.29
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52.42%
Saia Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Saia Reports Strong LTL Volume and Tonnage Growth
Positive
Jun 2, 2026
On June 2, 2026, Saia reported that its less-than-truckload operating metrics for April and May 2026 showed solid year-over-year gains, signaling continued volume and freight-mix strength. In April, LTL shipments per workday rose 5.6%, tonnage per...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Saia Reports Record First-Quarter 2026 Revenue and Safety Gains
Positive
May 6, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Saia management discussed first-quarter 2026 results, highlighting record first-quarter revenue of $806 million, up 2.4% year over year, with shipments per workday rising 1% and shipment growth in both legacy and newer markets. ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Saia Shareholders Back Directors, Executive Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 5, 2026
At Saia’s 2026 Annual Meeting, stockholders elected all 10 director nominees, including Di-Ann Eisnor, Donna E. Epps and CEO Frederick J. Holzgrefe III, to serve until the 2027 Annual Meeting, signaling continued confidence in the current bo...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Saia Reports Mixed Early 2026 LTL Operating Trends
Negative
Mar 3, 2026
On March 3, 2026, Saia reported operating data for January and February 2026 showing mixed trends in its less-than-truckload business versus a year earlier. January saw LTL shipments per workday fall 2.1%, tonnage per workday drop 7.0% and weight ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.