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XPO
(NYSE:XPO)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$195.00
▲(1.60% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/29/26
The score is driven mainly by improving financial performance (margin and free-cash-flow recovery) and a very upbeat earnings outlook for operating-ratio improvement and cash generation. These positives are tempered by a still-levered balance sheet for a cyclical industry, weak price trend versus key moving averages, and a stretched valuation (high P/E with no dividend yield provided).
Positive Factors
LTL Profitability
Record North American LTL profitability shows that XPO is converting revenue growth into stronger earnings through pricing, volume, and operating leverage. Sustained operating-ratio improvement can support durable margin expansion and strengthen the company’s position as freight demand recovers.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Leverage remains high for a cyclical transportation business, making XPO more exposed if freight demand weakens or refinancing costs rise. Although debt has declined, interest obligations and a leveraged equity base can constrain investment, capital returns, and resilience during a downturn.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
LTL Profitability
Record North American LTL profitability shows that XPO is converting revenue growth into stronger earnings through pricing, volume, and operating leverage. Sustained operating-ratio improvement can support durable margin expansion and strengthen the company’s position as freight demand recovers.
Read all positive factors
XPO (XPO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$22.09B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.10M
Price to Earnings (P/E)44.2
Beta (1Y)1.45
Revenue Growth9.48%
EPS Growth51.18%
CountryUS
Employees37,300
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryTrucking
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.29
Shares Outstanding117,086,464
10 Day Avg. Volume1,038,713
30 Day Avg. Volume1,102,408
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.60
Price to Book (P/B)8.62
Price to Sales (P/S)1.97
P/FCF Ratio48.75
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.76
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit21.19
Enterprise Value/Ebitda17.30
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$220.38Price Target Upside14.82% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)5.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)$9.08B
XPO Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
XPO Logistics, Inc. is a prominent provider of freight shipping solutions, operating extensively across the United States, wider North America, various European nations including France and the United Kingdom, and globally. The company's business ...
How the Company Makes Money
XPO makes money mainly by charging customers to transport freight via its less-than-truckload (LTL) network. Revenue is generated on a per-shipment basis, with pricing generally based on factors such as freight class/commodity characteristics, shi...
XPO Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 10, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive, with substantial revenue, EBITDA, EPS, margin, volume, service, free cash flow, and balance-sheet improvements. Management also provided an upbeat fourth-quarter and 2027 outlook, supported by pricing, profitable market-share gains, insourcing, network capacity, and AI-driven productivity. The main challenges were higher labor and fuel costs, third-quarter mix-related yield headwinds, a loss-making corporate segment, and service rankings that remain below the company's stated number-one goal.Positive Updates
Successful Insourcing Strategy
Outsourced miles declined from about 25% when the plan began to 5.6% in the latest quarter, which management described as among the lowest levels in company history. Purchased transportation cost increased by just $10 million despite higher volume and rising truckload rates.
Negative Updates
Higher Labor Costs and Incentive Compensation
Salary, wage, and benefits expense increased 11% year over year, or $72 million. Management attributed this to higher volumes, approximately 4 points of wage and benefits cost inflation, and approximately 3 points of growth tied to higher incentive compensation. Incentive compensation represented more than 100 basis points of full-year operating-ratio impact and resets as the company enters 2027.
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Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Successful Insourcing Strategy
Outsourced miles declined from about 25% when the plan began to 5.6% in the latest quarter, which management described as among the lowest levels in company history. Purchased transportation cost increased by just $10 million despite higher volume and rising truckload rates.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management expects fourth-quarter LTL adjusted operating ratio to be below an 82%, compared with normal seasonality of 250 basis points from Q3 to Q4 and an OR closer to an 83%; full-year OR improvement is expected to be 250 basis points or better, with 2027 expected to be another strong year for OR improvement and earnings growth. Yield and revenue per shipment, excluding fuel, are expected to improve sequentially and accelerate on a year-over-year basis in Q4, European EBITDA growth is expected to be nearly by 40% on a year-over-year basis, free cash flow is expected to be at least double in 2026, probably near $800 million for the year, and to reach billions in the coming years, while cost per shipment is expected to be up in the low single digit range over the long term and productivity is expected to improve by 1-2 points per year.XPO Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.84B | 8.16B | 8.07B | 7.74B | 7.72B | 7.20B |
| Gross Profit | 1.15B | 979.00M | 915.00M | 770.00M | 730.00M | 525.00M |
| EBITDA | 1.41B | 1.18B | 1.19B | 860.00M | 785.00M | 703.00M |
| Net Income | 503.00M | 316.00M | 387.00M | 189.00M | 666.00M | 336.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.31B | 8.19B | 7.71B | 7.49B | 6.27B | 8.72B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 260.00M | 310.00M | 246.00M | 412.00M | 460.00M | 228.00M |
| Total Debt | 3.92B | 4.70B | 4.12B | 4.11B | 3.25B | 4.27B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.33B | 6.33B | 6.11B | 6.23B | 5.26B | 7.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.97B | 1.86B | 1.60B | 1.27B | 1.01B | 1.14B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 657.00M | 329.00M | 19.00M | -851.00M | 311.00M | 452.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.13B | 986.00M | 808.00M | 682.00M | 832.00M | 721.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -415.00M | -616.00M | -702.00M | -1.50B | 245.00M | -277.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -776.00M | -339.00M | -226.00M | 761.00M | -862.00M | -2.23B |
XPO Technical Analysis
Positive
191.93
Price Trends
183.75
Positive
195.32
Negative
196.76
Negative
Market Momentum
0.63
Negative
56.35
Neutral
59.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 191.93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 184.57, above the 50-day MA of 183.75, and below the 200-day MA of 196.76, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.63 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XPO.
XPO Risk Analysis
XPO disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. XPO reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
XPO Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $35.78B | 30.98 | 25.92% | 0.67% | 3.80% | 11.90% | |
68 Neutral | $9.19B | 32.60 | 10.53% | ― | 9.34% | -0.36% | |
65 Neutral | $22.09B | 44.19 | 26.31% | ― | 9.48% | 51.18% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $5.12B | 36.09 | 4.65% | 1.35% | 6.03% | 24.21% | |
59 Neutral | $2.80B | 179.20 | 1.26% | 0.38% | 3.70% | -89.58% | |
52 Neutral | $4.53B | -53.90 | -5.80% | ― | 10.08% | -17.69% |
* Industrials Sector Average
XPO
XPO
189.57
45.70
31.76%
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XPO Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
XPO Highlights Strong Third Quarter LTL Profit Growth
Positive
Oct 29, 2026
On October 29, 2026, XPO published an investor slide deck highlighting a strong third quarter, with revenue rising 12% year on year to $2.37 billion and adjusted EBITDA up 27% to $433 million. Net income reached $181 million, or $1.53 per diluted ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
XPO Reports Ongoing Growth in North American LTL Volumes
Positive
Sep 3, 2026
On September 3, 2026, XPO released operating data showing continued growth in its North American LTL segment, highlighting an improvement in freight volumes. For July 2026, tonnage per day rose 5.8% year over year, driven by a 5.9% increase in shi...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
XPO Highlights Strong Q2 LTL Growth and Strategy
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 30, 2026, XPO released an investor slide deck for use in upcoming presentations, detailing its second-quarter 2026 performance and strategic priorities for its North American LTL business. The company reported consolidated revenue of $2.36...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.