XPO (XPO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $16.89B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.32M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 51.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.81
• Revenue Growth: -0.11%
• EPS Growth: -4.28%
• Country: US
• Employees: 38,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 1.07
• Shares Outstanding: 117,762,085
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,596,059
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,317,922
• PEG Ratio: 0.37
• Price to Book (P/B): 9.51
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.88
• P/FCF Ratio: 800.71
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.00
• 1Y Price Target: $149.53
• Price Target Upside: 3.93% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 70 Neutral
• Price Target: $149.00 ▲(3.57% Upside)

XPO's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings performance and operational efficiencies, as highlighted in the earnings call. The company's solid financial performance is tempered by high leverage and valuation concerns, while technical indicators suggest limited momentum. The absence of corporate events and dividend yield further impacts the score.

Positive Factors

Operational Improvements

XPO's operational improvements in the LTL segment, including a 470 basis point improvement in adjusted operating ratio, showcase its ability to enhance efficiency and remain competitive, providing a durable advantage in a challenging market.

Technology and AI Advancements

XPO's investment in AI and technology to optimize operations leads to significant cost savings and efficiency improvements, reinforcing its competitive edge and long-term sustainability in the logistics industry.

Cash Flow Growth

Strong free cash flow growth indicates XPO's enhanced ability to generate cash, providing financial flexibility for strategic investments and debt management, supporting long-term operational and financial health.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

XPO's high leverage poses a risk to financial stability, potentially limiting its ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage economic downturns, impacting long-term sustainability.

Volume Challenges

Declining shipment volumes in the LTL segment reflect ongoing challenges in freight demand, which could pressure revenue growth and operational efficiency if not addressed, affecting long-term performance.

Legacy Litigation Costs

The anticipated litigation charge related to legacy Con-way operations represents a financial burden that could impact XPO's profitability and cash flow, highlighting potential risks from past acquisitions.

XPO Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

XPO Logistics, Inc. provides freight transportation services in the United States, rest of North America, France, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, North American LTL and Brokerage and Other Services. The North American LTL segment provides customers with less-than-truckload (LTL) services, such as geographic density and day-definite regional, inter-regional, and transcontinental LTL freight services. This segment also offers cross-border U.S. service to and from Mexico and Canada, as well as intra-Canada service. The Brokerage and Other Services segment offers last mile logistics for heavy goods sold through e-commerce, omnichannel retail, and direct-to-consumer channels, as well as other non-core brokered freight transportation modes. It provides its services to customers in various industries, such as industrial and manufacturing, retail and e-commerce, food and beverage, logistics and transportation, and consumer goods. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Greenwich, Connecticut.

How the Company Makes Money

XPO generates revenue through multiple streams primarily from its Transportation and Logistics segments. In the Transportation sector, the company earns money by providing freight transportation services, including less-than-truckload (LTL), truckload, and last-mile delivery. Revenue is generated from shipping fees charged to customers based on distance, weight, and service type. In the Logistics segment, XPO generates income by offering contract logistics services, where it manages warehousing, inventory management, and distribution for clients, charging fees for storage and handling. Additionally, XPO benefits from technology-driven solutions that enhance operational efficiency, leading to cost savings and improved margins. Strategic partnerships with major retailers and manufacturers also contribute to its earnings, as they provide a stable customer base and volume of shipments.

XPO Financial Statement Overview

Summary

XPO demonstrates solid financial performance with steady revenue growth and profitability. However, high leverage poses a financial risk, despite strong return on equity and improved cash flow generation.

Income Statement

XPO's income statement shows a stable revenue growth rate of 1.2% in the TTM period, with a consistent gross profit margin of around 8%. The net profit margin is healthy at 4.3%, indicating profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have slightly decreased compared to previous periods, suggesting potential pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.34, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risk. However, the return on equity is strong at 20.7%, reflecting efficient use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 21.9%, suggesting moderate financial stability.

Cash Flow

XPO's cash flow statement shows a robust free cash flow growth rate of 29.4% in the TTM period, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.53, suggesting good cash conversion. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is relatively low at 0.18, indicating limited free cash flow relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.07B	8.07B	7.74B	7.72B	7.20B	6.17B
Gross Profit	662.00M	915.00M	770.00M	730.00M	525.00M	932.00M
EBITDA	1.18B	1.19B	860.00M	785.00M	703.00M	522.00M
Net Income	332.00M	387.00M	189.00M	666.00M	336.00M	110.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.49B	7.71B	7.49B	6.27B	8.72B	16.18B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	335.00M	246.00M	412.00M	460.00M	228.00M	1.73B
Total Debt	4.11B	4.12B	4.11B	3.25B	4.27B	7.37B
Total Liabilities	4.70B	6.11B	6.23B	5.26B	7.58B	13.33B
Stockholders Equity	1.82B	1.60B	1.27B	1.01B	1.14B	2.71B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	232.00M	19.00M	-851.00M	311.00M	408.00M	359.00M
Operating Cash Flow	949.00M	808.00M	682.00M	832.00M	721.00M	885.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-636.00M	-702.00M	-1.50B	245.00M	-277.00M	-357.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-352.00M	-226.00M	761.00M	-862.00M	-2.23B	1.14B

XPO Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 143.87
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 143.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 131.21, above the 50-day MA of 130.95, and above the 200-day MA of 123.33, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.64 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XPO.

XPO Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CHRW	―	$18.29B	26.24	34.32%	1.60%	-7.08%	71.39%
EXPD	―	$16.31B	19.18	39.01%	1.23%	23.70%	31.33%
LSTR	―	$4.41B	32.80	14.41%	2.83%	-0.74%	-32.79%
XPO	―	$16.89B	51.77	19.26%	―	-0.11%	-4.28%
HUBG	―	$2.17B	21.63	6.03%	1.36%	-5.37%	-11.26%
JBHT	―	$16.08B	29.23	15.13%	1.05%	-1.60%	4.87%
Sector *	―	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

XPO Corporate Events

XPO, Inc. Reports Resilient Q3 2025 Earnings

XPO, Inc. is a leading provider of less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation services in North America, known for its customer-focused operations and proprietary technology that facilitates the movement of 17 billion pounds of freight annually across 605 locations in North America and Europe.

XPO Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance

On October 30, 2025, XPO, Inc. released a slide presentation highlighting its third-quarter 2025 performance, showcasing a 6% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA to $342 million and an 11% rise in adjusted diluted EPS to $1.07. The company’s North American LTL segment reported record-high adjusted operating income and EBITDA, despite a challenging freight environment, driven by improved operational efficiency and strategic growth initiatives. XPO’s focus on enhancing service quality, expanding its network, and leveraging technology has positioned it as a leading carrier in the LTL industry, with significant margin and earnings expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (XPO) stock is a Buy with a $140.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPO stock, see the XPO Stock Forecast page.

XPO Faces $35 Million Charge from October Trial

XPO, Inc. has been involved in litigation since acquiring Con-way in 2015, related to environmental and product liability claims from a subsidiary sold in 1981. In October 2025, a trial was held to allocate defense and indemnity costs, and XPO expects to recognize a $35 million charge in Q3 2025, impacting its financials.

The most recent analyst rating on (XPO) stock is a Hold with a $144.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPO stock, see the XPO Stock Forecast page.

XPO Reports August 2025 LTL Tonnage Decline

On September 3, 2025, XPO, Inc. released preliminary operating metrics for its North American Less-Than-Truckload segment for August 2025, showing a 4.7% decrease in LTL tonnage per day compared to August 2024. The final metrics for July 2025 indicated an 8.7% decrease in weight per day from July 2024, influenced by a reduction in shipments per day and weight per shipment, highlighting ongoing challenges in the freight transportation sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (XPO) stock is a Hold with a $142.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPO stock, see the XPO Stock Forecast page.

XPO, Inc. Navigates Challenges with Strategic Growth

In the latest earnings call, XPO, Inc. presented a mixed sentiment, highlighting significant operational improvements and strategic investments that have positively impacted revenue, cost efficiencies, and market positioning. Despite these advancements, challenges persist with revenue declines in the Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) segment and a soft freight environment. Overall, the company has managed to outperform in a challenging market, but certain areas still face headwinds.

XPO, Inc. Reports Mixed Q2 2025 Results

XPO, Inc. is a leading provider of less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation services in North America, known for its customer-focused operations and proprietary technology. In its second quarter of 2025 earnings report, XPO revealed a slight decline in revenue and net income compared to the same period last year, with revenue remaining flat at $2.08 billion and net income dropping to $106 million from $150 million. The company’s North American LTL segment saw a decrease in revenue and tonnage, but achieved a notable improvement in yield and cost efficiency. Meanwhile, the European Transportation segment experienced a revenue increase but faced a decline in adjusted EBITDA. Despite the challenges, XPO’s CEO Mario Harik expressed confidence in the company’s strategic positioning for long-term growth and margin expansion.

XPO Releases Q2 2025 Performance Presentation

On July 31, 2025, XPO, Inc. released a slide presentation for future investor engagements, detailing its second quarter 2025 performance. The company reported a revenue of $2.08 billion and an operating income of $198 million, with significant improvements in its North American LTL segment, including a 1% year-over-year increase in LTL adjusted EBITDA and a reduction in purchased transportation expenses. XPO’s strategic focus on enhancing service quality and operational efficiency has led to improved margins and a strong industry position, with ongoing investments in network capacity and technology to drive future growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (XPO) stock is a Buy with a $162.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPO stock, see the XPO Stock Forecast page.