Want to see RXO full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
RXO, Inc.
(NYSE:RXO)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$29.00
▲(30.10% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/06/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (TTM revenue decline, losses, and negative free cash flow). Technicals are supportive with strong price strength, but overbought readings add near-term risk. Valuation remains unattractive due to a negative P/E, while the pending acquisition and other positive operational updates provide the main offset.
Positive Factors
Strategic acquisition synergies
The agreed combination with C.H. Robinson could materially strengthen RXO’s scale, network density and service breadth. The stated synergy target and planned AI operating model offer a pathway to better operating leverage, stronger margins and more resilient cash generation after closing.
Negative Factors
Revenue and profitability deterioration
The sharp TTM revenue contraction and shift to operating and net losses show that stable gross margins are not translating into adequate earnings. Weak operating leverage can constrain reinvestment and make recovery dependent on sustained volume, pricing and cost improvements.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strategic acquisition synergies
The agreed combination with C.H. Robinson could materially strengthen RXO’s scale, network density and service breadth. The stated synergy target and planned AI operating model offer a pathway to better operating leverage, stronger margins and more resilient cash generation after closing.
Read all positive factors
RXO, Inc. (RXO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.80B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.92M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.10
Revenue Growth9.53%
EPS Growth71.38%
CountryUS
Employees6,906
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryTrucking
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.61
Shares Outstanding164,961,060
10 Day Avg. Volume5,357,794
30 Day Avg. Volume2,916,824
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.29
Price to Book (P/B)1.38
Price to Sales (P/S)0.37
P/FCF Ratio-266.17
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.12
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.89
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.51
Enterprise Value/Ebitda283.82
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$28.27Price Target Upside26.82% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)0.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.85B
RXO, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
RXO, Inc., headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, functions as a freight broker specializing in full truckload transportation services across the United States. The company utilizes its unique digital marketplace to link clients with availabl...
How the Company Makes Money
RXO primarily makes money through its freight brokerage business. In a typical transaction, a shipper pays RXO to arrange transportation for a load, and RXO then pays a carrier (a trucking company or independent owner-operator) to haul that load; ...
RXO, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed clear operational momentum (spot mix gains, higher revenue per load, managed transportation wins, rapid pipeline growth, and early AI-driven productivity/margin improvements) and an optimistic forward outlook, including raised expectations for full-year contract rate increases (now expected high single digits) and a materially improved Q2 EBITDA guide. However, near-term financials remain pressured by Q1 volume declines, weather-related impacts, negative free cash flow, elevated net leverage and margin headwinds from fuel and cost of transportation. Overall, executives emphasized being in the early innings of a supply-driven recovery and highlighted structural advantages (scale, technology, carrier vetting) that support a positive trajectory.Positive Updates
Revenue and Profitability Drivers
Total revenue of $1.4 billion in Q1 with gross margin of 14.2%. Brokerage revenue was $1.1 billion (74% of total), up 3% year-over-year, driven by higher freight rates, longer truckload length of haul and higher fuel prices.
Negative Updates
Low Adjusted EBITDA and Weather Impact
Adjusted EBITDA was only $6 million in Q1 (at the low end of guidance); severe weather negatively impacted results by approximately $3 million, mostly in last mile.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Profitability Drivers
Total revenue of $1.4 billion in Q1 with gross margin of 14.2%. Brokerage revenue was $1.1 billion (74% of total), up 3% year-over-year, driven by higher freight rates, longer truckload length of haul and higher fuel prices.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
RXO guided second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $27 million to $37 million (midpoint $32M), up materially from first-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $6 million (management noted roughly a 5–6x increase to Q2 midpoint), and said 2026 modeling assumptions remain unchanged; they expect brokerage volume to be about flat year‑over‑year in Q2 with truckload volume roughly flat (resuming outperformance versus the market by mid‑year) and LTL approximately flat, last‑mile stops down a low single‑digit percent, while truckload gross profit per load should improve again in Q2 after a 9% sequential increase in Q1 (April GP/load ~10% higher vs. Q1) and truckload revenue per load was +8% YoY in Q1 (April +12% YoY ex‑fuel/length); spot mix — which rose 500 bps sequentially and 600 bps YoY in Q1 (April spot mix ~35%) — is expected to increase further in Q2, and full‑year 2026 contract rates are now anticipated to rise high single digits (vs. prior low‑to‑mid single digits), all supporting management’s stated path to the high end of the Q2 EBITDA range.RXO, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
33
Negative
Balance Sheet
44
Neutral
Cash Flow
39
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.09B | 5.74B | 4.55B | 3.93B | 4.80B | 4.69B |
| Gross Profit | 828.00M | 825.00M | 696.00M | 658.00M | 860.00M | 735.00M |
| EBITDA | 19.00M | 36.00M | -187.00M | 103.00M | 209.00M | 272.00M |
| Net Income | -105.00M | -100.00M | -290.00M | 4.00M | 92.00M | 150.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.46B | 3.28B | 3.41B | 1.82B | 2.03B | 2.07B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 15.00M | 17.00M | 35.00M | 5.00M | 98.00M | 29.00M |
| Total Debt | 728.00M | 670.00M | 664.00M | 558.00M | 617.00M | 228.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.95B | 1.74B | 1.80B | 1.23B | 1.44B | 998.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.51B | 1.54B | 1.61B | 594.00M | 587.00M | 1.07B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -18.06M | -8.00M | -57.00M | 25.00M | 253.00M | 116.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 11.97M | 51.00M | -12.00M | 89.00M | 310.00M | 155.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -28.03M | -71.00M | -1.06B | -66.00M | -56.00M | -38.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.93M | 1.00M | 1.11B | -117.00M | -183.00M | -158.00M |
RXO, Inc. Technical Analysis
Positive
22.29
Price Trends
21.93
Positive
24.17
Positive
20.01
Positive
Market Momentum
2.10
Negative
77.75
Negative
97.42
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RXO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.29 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.82, above the 50-day MA of 21.93, and above the 200-day MA of 20.01, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.75 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.42 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RXO.
RXO, Inc. Risk Analysis
RXO, Inc. disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. RXO, Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
RXO, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | $5.52B | 49.22 | 3.68% | 1.25% | 6.25% | -10.92% | |
58 Neutral | $10.49B | 240.20 | 0.61% | 1.21% | 4.07% | -74.05% | |
58 Neutral | $2.89B | 184.80 | 1.26% | 0.37% | 3.70% | -89.58% | |
54 Neutral | $4.80B | -47.44 | -6.84% | ― | 9.53% | 71.38% | |
53 Neutral | $810.82M | 213.00 | 0.92% | 0.88% | 8.34% | -89.15% | |
51 Neutral | $1.96B | -42.96 | -3.39% | 1.71% | 9.64% | -190.02% |
* Industrials Sector Average
RXO
RXO, Inc.
28.69
12.35
75.58%
CVLG
Covenant Logistics Group
31.83
11.22
54.47%
KNX
Knight Transportation
64.52
22.31
52.86%
WERN
Werner Enterprises
32.72
6.73
25.91%
ARCB
ArcBest
129.67
58.71
82.74%
SNDR
Schneider National
31.52
9.68
44.34%
RXO, Inc. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
RXO to Be Acquired by C.H. Robinson Worldwide
Positive
Oct 5, 2026
On October 4, 2026, RXO agreed to be acquired by C.H. Robinson Worldwide in a stock-and-cash merger valuing RXO at about $5.8 billion, with RXO shareholders offered a mix of cash and C.H. Robinson stock and the deal expected to close in the first ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
RXO Reports Stronger Truckload Profitability in Soft Market
Positive
Sep 9, 2026
On Sept. 9, 2026, RXO issued preliminary operating metrics indicating stronger-than-expected truckload profitability for the third quarter amid a soft freight market. The company reported that truckload gross profit per load rose by more than 10 p...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
RXO Reports Revenue Growth Despite Narrower Margins and Loss
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
On August 6, 2026, RXO reported second-quarter 2026 results showing revenue rising to $1.8 billion from $1.4 billion a year earlier, while gross margin narrowed to 13.9% from 17.8%. The company posted a GAAP net loss of $9 million, unchanged from ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.