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Old Dominion Freight
(NASDAQ:ODFL)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$199.00
▲(0.33% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/23/26
ODFL scores well primarily due to outstanding financial strength—high margins/returns, near-zero leverage, and strong cash generation—supported by a positive earnings outlook and constructive recent operating updates. Offsetting this, the stock’s technical setup is clearly bearish (below key moving averages with negative MACD), and valuation is relatively expensive (high P/E with a low yield), which tempers the overall score.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Minimal debt and growing equity give Old Dominion substantial financial flexibility through freight downcycles. The company can continue funding network investment, fleet needs, and shareholder returns without relying heavily on borrowing or exposing earnings to elevated interest costs.
Negative Factors
Persistent LTL volume softness
Lower shipment volumes can limit network utilization and reduce the operating leverage available from Old Dominion’s fixed service-center and fleet infrastructure. Continued softness would make revenue growth more dependent on pricing, while limiting the pace at which earnings can recover.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Minimal debt and growing equity give Old Dominion substantial financial flexibility through freight downcycles. The company can continue funding network investment, fleet needs, and shareholder returns without relying heavily on borrowing or exposing earnings to elevated interest costs.
Read all positive factors
Old Dominion Freight Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Intercity Miles
Measures the total miles covered between cities, indicating the company's reach and efficiency in long-haul transportation.
Measures the total miles covered between cities, indicating the company's reach and efficiency in long-haul transportation.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyOld Dominion Freight (ODFL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$35.93B
Dividend Yield0.66%
Average Volume (3M)1.64M
Price to Earnings (P/E)33.3
Beta (1Y)1.00
Revenue Growth-0.64%
EPS Growth1.47%
CountryUS
Employees20,591
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryTrucking
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.20
Shares Outstanding207,356,630
10 Day Avg. Volume1,819,600
30 Day Avg. Volume1,642,607
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.70
Price to Book (P/B)7.63
Price to Sales (P/S)5.99
P/FCF Ratio34.46
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$239.00Price Target Upside20.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)5.82
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.92B
Old Dominion Freight Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) serves as a prominent less-than-truckload (LTL) freight carrier operating across the United States and North America. The company's offerings include LTL shipping solutions at regional, inter-regional, and na...
How the Company Makes Money
ODFL makes money mainly by charging customers to transport freight, with the largest revenue stream coming from its LTL business. In LTL, multiple customers’ shipments share trailer space; ODFL earns revenue by pricing each shipment based on facto...
Old Dominion Freight Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple clear operational and financial strengths: return to revenue growth (10.4% YoY), strong operating leverage (450 bps OR improvement to 70.1%), a 32.3% increase in EPS to $1.68, robust cash generation, active shareholder returns, and high service quality (99% on-time, 0.1% claims). Management acknowledged near-term headwinds including lower tons per day (-4.1% YoY), fuel and fringe cost pressures, mix-driven yield moderation into Q3, and industry-level volatility (broker/legal scrutiny, insurance inflation, and some peer capacity issues). On balance the positive execution, yield progress, cash flow and capacity positioning outweigh the challenges discussed, while management remains cautious and measured about seasonality and mix effects.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Revenue increased 10.4% year-over-year to $1.55 billion in Q2 2026, with sequential revenue per day up 14.6% versus Q1 2026 and management discussing the potential for ~10% revenue growth for Q3 if momentum is maintained.
Negative Updates
Tonnage Decline Year-over-Year
LTL tons per day declined 4.1% YoY in Q2 2026, and July year-over-year tons per day were down approximately 1.0%, indicating ongoing volume softness versus pre-recovery levels.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Revenue increased 10.4% year-over-year to $1.55 billion in Q2 2026, with sequential revenue per day up 14.6% versus Q1 2026 and management discussing the potential for ~10% revenue growth for Q3 if momentum is maintained.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that, if recent momentum carries, third-quarter revenue could rise ~10% (implying roughly $1.54–$1.55 billion) while a conservative carry of July’s 7.5–8.0% would imply about $1.52 billion; they expect LTL revenue per hundredweight excluding fuel to improve ~4.0–4.5% in Q3 (assuming a baseline diesel of ~$4.95/gal) and cited incremental margins of roughly 45–50% on that revenue growth. For context, Q2 results included revenue of $1.55 billion (+10.4%), operating ratio improvement of 450 basis points to 70.1%, EPS of $1.68 (+32.3%), LTL revenue/ckwt up 15.2% (ex‑fuel +5.5%), LTL tons per day down 4.1% year‑over‑year but up 4.0% sequentially, revenue per day +14.6% sequentially, and monthly Q2 tonnage trends of April −2.8%, May +3.0% and June +0.9% (vs. 10‑yr averages of −0.9%, +2.2%, +1.7%). They also said GAAP Q3 OR seasonality is typically flat to +50 bps from Q2 but, after normalizing for the $17.2 million net property gain in Q2, they expect a ~150–200 bps increase; other guidance included Q3 effective tax rate ~25.0%, Q2 operating cash flow $272.7 million (YTD $646.3M), Q2 capex $77.0M (YTD $140M) with full‑year capex raised to ~ $380M (+$115M, including ~$60M for tractors/trailers and ~$55M for real estate), Q2 share repurchases $151.6M (YTD $240M) and Q2 dividends $60.2M (YTD $121M).Old Dominion Freight Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
96
Very Positive
Cash Flow
90
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.60B | 5.50B | 5.81B | 5.87B | 6.26B | 5.26B |
| Gross Profit | 1.78B | 1.77B | 2.02B | 2.07B | 2.26B | 1.78B |
| EBITDA | 1.82B | 1.73B | 1.90B | 1.97B | 2.12B | 1.65B |
| Net Income | 1.09B | 1.02B | 1.19B | 1.24B | 1.38B | 1.03B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.74B | 5.59B | 5.49B | 5.51B | 4.84B | 4.82B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 283.94M | 120.09M | 108.68M | 433.80M | 235.67M | 717.00M |
| Total Debt | 20.00M | 141.40M | 168.29M | 79.98M | 99.96M | 99.95M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.19B | 1.28B | 1.25B | 1.25B | 1.19B | 1.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.55B | 4.31B | 4.24B | 4.26B | 3.65B | 3.68B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.11B | 955.10M | 887.97M | 811.83M | 916.43M | 662.53M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.39B | 1.37B | 1.66B | 1.57B | 1.69B | 1.21B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -195.31M | -366.41M | -751.19M | -659.82M | -547.47M | -455.29M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -938.91M | -992.31M | -1.23B | -661.83M | -1.42B | -696.18M |
Old Dominion Freight Technical Analysis
Negative
198.34
Price Trends
201.90
Negative
210.72
Negative
198.78
Negative
Market Momentum
-7.82
Negative
28.94
Positive
41.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ODFL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 198.34 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 181.86, below the 50-day MA of 201.90, and below the 200-day MA of 198.78, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -7.82 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 28.94 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ODFL.
Old Dominion Freight Risk Analysis
Old Dominion Freight disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Old Dominion Freight reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Old Dominion Freight Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $35.93B | 33.33 | 24.87% | 0.66% | -0.64% | 1.47% | |
68 Neutral | $8.65B | 31.21 | 10.63% | ― | 4.84% | -4.34% | |
65 Neutral | $20.28B | 50.49 | 21.57% | ― | 7.03% | 16.37% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $5.48B | 48.83 | 3.68% | 1.26% | 6.25% | -10.92% | |
58 Neutral | $2.80B | 178.80 | 1.26% | 0.38% | 3.70% | -89.58% | |
45 Neutral | $3.26B | -32.28 | -6.84% | ― | 9.53% | 71.38% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Old Dominion Freight Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Old Dominion Freight appoints new independent board director
Positive
Sep 22, 2026
On September 22, 2026, Old Dominion Freight Line announced that long-serving director John D. Kasarda, Ph.D. retired from its Board of Directors, with the company emphasizing that his departure did not stem from any disagreement over operations, p...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Old Dominion Freight Reports Strong August LTL Revenue Growth
Positive
Sep 3, 2026
On September 3, 2026, Old Dominion Freight Line reported that its August 2026 less-than-truckload revenue per day rose 12.4% from a year earlier, driven by higher LTL revenue per hundredweight despite a 0.9% decline in LTL tons per day. The tonnag...
DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Old Dominion Freight Raises Quarterly Dividend, Signals Confidence
Positive
Jul 23, 2026
On July 23, 2026, Old Dominion Freight Line announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.29 per share of common stock, payable on September 16, 2026, to shareholders of record as of September 2, 2026. The payout, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.