Old Dominion Freight AI Stock Analysis
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Old Dominion Freight (ODFL) AI Stock Analysis
Old Dominion Freight
(NASDAQ:ODFL)
ODFL scores well primarily due to standout financial strength and profitability (minimal leverage, strong margins, and robust free cash flow) supported by a constructive earnings update and above-seasonal Q4 outlook. The score is held back by weak-to-neutral price momentum (below major moving averages with negative MACD) and a relatively rich valuation (P/E ~32 with a low dividend yield).
Old Dominion Freight Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Intercity MilesMeasures the total miles covered between cities, indicating the company's reach and efficiency in long-haul transportation.
Intercity miles declined from a mid‑2022 peak into a trough by late‑2025, then began a modest recovery into mid‑2026 — a clear inflection from volume-driven expansion to a period of softer network activity. That volume weakness has been masked by strong yield and revenue per hundredweight improvements, which helped margins and cash generation in Q2. The key takeaway for investors: pricing/mix is currently offsetting lower miles, but sustained recovery in intercity miles is required to validate the company’s higher capex and maintain operating‑leverage gains amid fuel, labor and mix risks.
The FlyOld Dominion Freight (ODFL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $35.13B
- Dividend Yield
- 0.67%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 1.84M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 30.6
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.91
- Revenue Growth
- 3.80%
- EPS Growth
- 11.90%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 20,182
- Sector
- Industrials
- Sector Strength
- 63
- Industry
- Trucking
Old Dominion Freight Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) serves as a prominent less-than-truckload (LTL) freight carrier operating across the United States and North America. The company's offerings include LTL shipping solutions at regional, inter-regional, and natio...
How the Company Makes Money
ODFL makes money mainly by charging customers to transport freight, with the largest revenue stream coming from its LTL business. In LTL, multiple customers’ shipments share trailer space; ODFL earns revenue by pricing each shipment based on factors...
Old Dominion Freight Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly positive overall. Old Dominion delivered substantial revenue and earnings growth, improved its operating ratio, maintained leading service metrics, generated significant cash flow, and described improving demand, pricing, capacity, and market-share opportunities. The primary challenges were uneven tonnage trends, elevated medical and fringe-benefit costs, fuel and petroleum-based inflation, and expected fourth-quarter operating-ratio seasonality. The positive operational and financial developments significantly outweighed the stated cost and volume pressures.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
For the fourth quarter, Old Dominion currently anticipates revenue of $1.54 billion to $1.58 billion, which would be above our normal seasonality, and an operating ratio of around 73.5% with a plus or minus 20 basis points range if revenue trends continue to hold steady and the company continues to outperform seasonality; incremental margins are expected to be in about the 45% range, the effective tax rate is expected to be 24.8%, and the company expects November and December to trend above seasonality, with potential fringe-benefit and fuel-cost headwinds baked into the operating ratio guidance. For 2027, total CapEx will likely be lower than the 10% to 15% of revenue spend that the company typically sees, while fourth-quarter headcount is expected to show no material change unless there is a major change in overall demand.
Old Dominion Freight Financial Statement Overview
Summary
High-quality fundamentals: best-in-class profitability (TTM gross margin ~32%, net margin ~20%, EBIT margin ~27%), an exceptionally conservative balance sheet with minimal leverage (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.00), and strong, improving free cash flow (TTM FCF ~$1.17B; ~82% of net income). Primary risk is cyclical/choppy revenue and modest margin compression versus 2022.
Income Statement
86Very PositiveBalance Sheet
95Very PositiveCash Flow
88Very Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.79B | 5.50B | 5.81B | 5.87B | 6.26B | 5.26B |
| Gross Profit | 1.86B | 1.77B | 2.02B | 2.07B | 2.26B | 1.78B |
| EBITDA | 1.91B | 1.73B | 1.90B | 1.97B | 2.12B | 1.65B |
| Net Income | 1.16B | 1.02B | 1.19B | 1.24B | 1.38B | 1.03B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.89B | 5.47B | 5.49B | 5.51B | 4.84B | 4.82B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 466.22M | 120.09M | 108.68M | 433.80M | 235.67M | 717.00M |
| Total Debt | 20.00M | 39.99M | 168.29M | 79.98M | 99.96M | 99.95M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.22B | 1.16B | 1.25B | 1.25B | 1.19B | 1.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.67B | 4.31B | 4.24B | 4.26B | 3.65B | 3.68B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.17B | 955.10M | 887.97M | 811.83M | 916.43M | 662.53M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.43B | 1.37B | 1.66B | 1.57B | 1.69B | 1.21B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -170.73M | -366.41M | -751.19M | -659.82M | -547.47M | -455.29M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -835.73M | -992.31M | -1.23B | -661.83M | -1.42B | -696.18M |
Old Dominion Freight Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ODFL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 170.50 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 178.96, below the 50-day MA of 179.29, and below the 200-day MA of 201.22, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.78 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ODFL.
Old Dominion Freight Risk Analysis
Old Dominion Freight disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Old Dominion Freight reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Latest Risks Added
3 New RisksOld Dominion Freight Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
- ODFL77Outperform
SAIA73.2Outperform
XPO65Neutral
ARCB62Neutral
SNDR56Neutral
RXO52Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODFL | 77Outperform | $34.62B | 30.61 | 25.92% | 0.67% | 3.80% | 11.90% |
| SAIA | 73Outperform | $9.06B | 32.13 | 10.53% | ― | 9.34% | -0.36% |
| XPO | 65Neutral | $21.93B | 44.05 | 26.31% | ― | 9.48% | 51.18% |
| Sector * | 63Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
| ARCB | 62Neutral | $2.95B | 106.18 | 2.23% | 0.35% | 8.11% | -69.52% |
| SNDR | 56Neutral | $5.09B | 36.01 | 4.65% | 1.35% | 6.03% | 24.21% |
| RXO | 52Neutral | $4.61B | -55.18 | -5.80% | ― | 10.08% | -17.69% |
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | 170.50 | 35.89 | 26.66% | |
| XPO | Xpo, Inc. | 189.00 | 53.53 | 39.51% | |
| SAIA | Saia Inc | 339.57 | 67.59 | 24.85% | |
| ARCB | Arcbest | 135.91 | 70.80 | 108.76% | |
| SNDR | Schneider National | 29.17 | 7.71 | 35.91% | |
| RXO | RXO, Inc. | 28.14 | 17.51 | 164.72% |
Old Dominion Freight Corporate Events
Old Dominion Freight Raises Quarterly Dividend for Shareholders
PositiveOn October 22, 2026, Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors had declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.29 per share of common stock, payable on December 16, 2026 to shareholders of record as of December 2, 2026. The d...
Old Dominion Freight appoints new independent board director
PositiveOn September 22, 2026, Old Dominion Freight Line announced that long-serving director John D. Kasarda, Ph.D. retired from its Board of Directors, with the company emphasizing that his departure did not stem from any disagreement over operations, poli...
Old Dominion Freight Reports Strong August LTL Revenue Growth
PositiveOn September 3, 2026, Old Dominion Freight Line reported that its August 2026 less-than-truckload revenue per day rose 12.4% from a year earlier, driven by higher LTL revenue per hundredweight despite a 0.9% decline in LTL tons per day. The tonnage d...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Nov 05, 2026