Ryanair (RYAAY)
NASDAQ:RYAAY
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Ryanair Holdings
(NASDAQ:RYAAY)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$59.00
▼(-4.88% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/20/26
The score is supported primarily by strong financial performance (improved balance sheet and solid profitability) and reasonable valuation. This is held back by weak technical momentum (price below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a cautious earnings outlook due to fuel/geopolitical risk, rising EU environmental taxes, and limited near-term pricing visibility.
Positive Factors
Strong balance sheet and net cash
Material deleveraging and a net cash position materially reduce refinancing and liquidity risk for an inherently cyclical airline. This financial flexibility supports continued fleet investment, buybacks/dividends, and the ability to absorb shocks, improving long-term resilience and optionality.
Negative Factors
Rising EU environmental taxes
A persistent increase in EU aviation levies is a structural cost headwind that raises unit costs and dents competitive parity with non‑EU carriers. Unlike fuel spikes, regulatory tax increases are recurring and can compress long‑term margins or force route reallocation away from higher‑tax markets.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong balance sheet and net cash
Material deleveraging and a net cash position materially reduce refinancing and liquidity risk for an inherently cyclical airline. This financial flexibility supports continued fleet investment, buybacks/dividends, and the ability to absorb shocks, improving long-term resilience and optionality.
Read all positive factors
Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$29.01B
Dividend Yield1.37%
Average Volume (3M)1.65M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.6
Beta (1Y)0.61
Revenue Growth19.66%
EPS Growth49.49%
CountryUS
Employees27,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)8.84
Shares Outstanding520,373,050
10 Day Avg. Volume1,767,007
30 Day Avg. Volume1,653,946
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.30
Price to Book (P/B)2.61
Price to Sales (P/S)1.69
P/FCF Ratio14.54
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.86
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.60
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.35
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.49
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$80.00Price Target Upside28.97% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)4.4
Revenue Forecast (FY)$18.77B
Ryanair Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ryanair Holdings plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides scheduled-passenger airline services in Ireland, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Germany, and other European countries. It is also involved in the provision of various ancillary serv...
How the Company Makes Money
Ryanair primarily makes money from (1) passenger ticket revenue and (2) ancillary revenue generated around its flight network. Passenger revenue comes from selling seats on scheduled flights, with pricing generally based on demand, route, seasonal...
Ryanair Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 18, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call conveyed strong underlying operational and financial performance—record profit, record traffic, disciplined unit costs, robust hedging, a large and improving cash position and near-term plans for fleet modernization and shareholder returns. These positives are tempered by significant macro and industry headwinds: the Middle East conflict and fuel volatility (20% unhedged), rising EU environmental taxes, near-term pricing/bookings uncertainty, some rising maintenance and labor costs, and remaining OEM/certification risks. Management positioned the business conservatively (no FY27 profit guidance), emphasizing balance-sheet strength and optionality to capitalize on market dislocations.Positive Updates
Record Full-Year Profit
Reported record FY26 profit after tax of EUR 2.26 billion, a 40% increase versus prior year (EUR 1.6 billion).
Negative Updates
Middle East Conflict and Fuel Price Risk
Conflict in the Middle East and potential Strait of Hormuz closure have driven spot fuel price spikes. 20% of fuel exposure remains unhedged; if unhedged prices stay elevated, unit costs could rise by a mid-single-digit percentage.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Full-Year Profit
Reported record FY26 profit after tax of EUR 2.26 billion, a 40% increase versus prior year (EUR 1.6 billion).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ryanair guided that FY‑27 traffic should grow ~4% to ~216m passengers, with 80% of jet fuel hedged at about $67/barrel (≈$668/mt) and 80% of dollar fuel needs hedged at $1.15 (nearly 30% of euro/dollar roughly hedged at $1.20 for H1 next year); the group finished FY‑26 with record profit €2.26bn (↑40% vs €1.6bn), traffic 208.4m (↑4%), gross cash €3.6bn and net cash €2.1bn after €1.9bn CapEx, €1.2bn debt repayment and >€900m shareholder distributions, a fleet of 647 aircraft including 210 Gamechangers, and a declared final dividend €0.195/share (AGM subject); FY‑27 CapEx is ~€2bn (FY‑28 ~€2.5–3bn), management will repay the final €1.2bn bond next week to be effectively debt‑free, intends to complete the remaining ~€150m of a €750m buyback and rebuild cash toward ~€4bn, expects first 15 MAX‑10s in spring 2027 (cert. end Q3/early Q4 2026) and 300 MAX‑10s by Mar‑2034, but warns EU environmental taxes will rise by ~€300m to €1.4bn and—if unhedged fuel stays elevated—unit costs could increase by mid‑single digits (FY‑26 unit costs were +1%); near‑term demand shows strong close‑in bookings but forward pricing has eased (Q1 fares mid‑digit behind prior year, Q2 pricing broadly flat, with occasional 1–2% marginal discounts).Ryanair Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 15.65B | 13.95B | 13.44B | 10.78B | 4.80B |
| Gross Profit | 3.28B | 2.65B | 3.88B | 2.22B | 120.70M |
| EBITDA | 3.86B | 3.07B | 3.06B | 2.44B | 381.00M |
| Net Income | 2.19B | 1.61B | 1.92B | 1.31B | -240.80M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 19.77B | 17.51B | 17.18B | 16.41B | 15.15B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.58B | 3.96B | 4.11B | 4.66B | 3.60B |
| Total Debt | 1.49B | 2.68B | 2.75B | 4.12B | 5.08B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.66B | 10.47B | 9.56B | 10.76B | 9.60B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.11B | 7.04B | 7.61B | 5.64B | 5.55B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.81B | 1.86B | 766.00M | 1.98B | 758.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.72B | 3.42B | 3.16B | 3.89B | 1.94B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.62B | -1.43B | -1.56B | -1.90B | -1.41B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.22B | -2.00B | -1.33B | -1.05B | -536.50M |
Ryanair Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
62.03
Price Trends
58.21
Negative
62.12
Negative
62.89
Negative
Market Momentum
0.25
Negative
46.45
Neutral
25.79
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RYAAY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 62.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.68, above the 50-day MA of 58.21, and below the 200-day MA of 62.89, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RYAAY.
Ryanair Holdings Risk Analysis
Ryanair Holdings disclosed 10 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ryanair Holdings reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
In 2021, a law was passed in France prohibiting domestic flights where an alternative direct train service operates in under 2.5 hours, with an exception made for connecting flights. The European Commission found this distorted competition between point to point carriers and network operators. Consequently, France amended the law to remove this exemption for connecting flights. The new formulation of the law de facto means that only 3 routes to Paris Orly airport are affected. The European Commission approved this law in December 2022. Q1, 2023
Ryanair Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $51.76B | 11.58 | 23.14% | 0.96% | 5.24% | 20.93% | |
72 Outperform | $34.13B | 9.36 | 24.91% | ― | 4.73% | 1.55% | |
68 Neutral | $29.01B | 11.57 | 24.66% | 1.37% | 19.66% | 49.49% | |
64 Neutral | $14.28B | 8.50 | 126.90% | 3.50% | 16.19% | 62.18% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
55 Neutral | $8.97B | 43.53 | -5.17% | ― | 3.33% | -70.60% | |
54 Neutral | $19.98B | 25.18 | 10.67% | 1.73% | 4.72% | 72.71% |
* Industrials Sector Average
RYAAY
Ryanair Holdings
56.97
0.42
0.75%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
79.51
29.16
57.92%
LUV
Southwest Airlines
41.31
8.49
25.88%
UAL
United Airlines Holdings
104.94
20.71
24.59%
AAL
American Airlines
13.30
1.52
12.90%
LTM
LATAM Airlines Group SA Sponsored ADR
49.71
11.81
31.17%
Ryanair Holdings Corporate Events
Ryanair Cancels Over 500,000 ADS-Linked Shares in Mid-May Buyback
May 18, 2026
Ryanair Holdings said that between 11 and 15 May 2026 it repurchased and cancelled 8,092 ordinary shares and 501,876 ordinary shares underlying American Depositary Shares as part of its ongoing share buy-back programme launched in May 2025. The we...
Ryanair lifts FY26 profit 40% and eyes further growth amid capacity constraints
May 18, 2026
Ryanair reported on 18 May 2026 that full-year profit after tax for the year ended 31 March 2026 rose 40% to a record €2.26bn (pre-exceptional), as revenue increased 11% to €15.54bn and traffic grew 4% to 208.4 million passengers, desp...
Ryanair Wins Italian Court Battle Over €4.2m Covid Fine, Challenges Larger AGCM Penalty
May 13, 2026
On 13 May 2026, Ryanair said Italy’s Council of State had issued a final ruling annulling a €4.2m fine imposed by Italy’s competition authority AGCM in 2021 over Covid-related flight cancellations, and ordered full repayment with...
Ryanair Cancels Over 600,000 ADS-Linked Shares in Early May 2026 Buyback
May 11, 2026
Ryanair Holdings disclosed that between 4 and 8 May 2026 it repurchased for cancellation 2,760 ordinary shares and 606,814 ordinary shares underlying its American Depositary Shares. The purchases, executed at volume-weighted average prices in euro...
Ryanair Discloses Capital Group Stake Trim Below 15% Threshold
May 5, 2026
Ryanair Holdings has disclosed that The Capital Group Companies reduced its stake in the airline, crossing below the 15% voting rights threshold on 30 April 2026, with notification to the company on 1 May. The U.S.-based asset manager now controls...
Ryanair Continues Share Buybacks With Late-April 2026 Purchases and Cancellations
May 5, 2026
Ryanair Holdings said it bought back and cancelled 8,001 ordinary shares and 540,986 ordinary shares underlying American Depositary Shares between 27 April and 1 May 2026. The purchases, executed at volume-weighted average prices around €22 ...
Ryanair April Traffic Rises 5% to 19.3 Million Passengers
May 5, 2026
On 5 May 2026, Ryanair reported that its April 2026 traffic increased by 5% year-on-year to 19.3 million guests, up from 18.3 million in April 2025. The airline maintained a strong load factor of 93% and operated over 108,000 flights during the mo...
Ryanair Continues Share Buyback With April 20–24, 2026 Share Cancellations
Apr 27, 2026
Ryanair Holdings said it bought back and cancelled 10,000 ordinary shares and 574,716 ordinary shares underlying American Depositary Shares between 20 and 24 April 2026, paying volume-weighted average prices ranging from €23.01 to €24....
Ryanair Discloses Capital Group Stake Increase Above 15% Voting Threshold
Apr 27, 2026
Ryanair Holdings disclosed that The Capital Group Companies, Inc., a major U.S.-based asset manager, has increased its stake in the airline above the 15% voting rights threshold. The change, which took place on 23 April 2026 and was notified to Ry...
Ryanair Cancels Over 584,000 Shares in April 2026 Buyback
Apr 20, 2026
Ryanair Holdings said it repurchased and cancelled a total of 10,000 ordinary shares and 574,158 ordinary shares underlying American Depositary Shares between 13 and 17 April 2026. The transactions were executed at volume-weighted average prices o...
Ryanair Confirms EU Investors Hold 30% of Share Capital at March 2026 Year-End
Apr 14, 2026
Ryanair Holdings said that as of its financial year end on 31 March 2026, 30% of its issued share capital was held by EU nationals, including citizens of the EU-27, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. This confirmation follows an earli...
Ryanair Continues Share Buyback With Early April 2026 Purchases for Cancellation
Apr 13, 2026
Ryanair Holdings has continued its capital return strategy with share repurchases conducted between 6 and 10 April 2026 under its ongoing buyback programme launched in May 2025. Over the period, the airline bought 7,322 ordinary shares and 572,296...
Ryanair Cancels Over 460,000 Shares in Latest Buyback Tranche
Apr 7, 2026
Ryanair Holdings plc reported that between 30 March and 2 April 2026 it repurchased 7,500 ordinary shares and 454,920 ordinary shares underlying American Depositary Shares, paying volume-weighted average prices in euros for the local stock and in ...
Ryanair Continues Share Buyback With Late-March 2026 Share Cancellations
Mar 30, 2026
Ryanair Holdings plc disclosed that between 23 March 2026 and 27 March 2026 it repurchased for cancellation 10,000 ordinary shares and 574,560 ordinary shares underlying its American Depositary Shares. The transactions, executed at volume-weighted...
Ryanair Discloses Artisan Partners Crossing 4% Ownership Threshold
Mar 25, 2026
Ryanair Holdings disclosed that Artisan Partners Limited Partnership has increased its stake in the airline, crossing the 4% voting rights threshold on 23 March 2026. Artisan now holds 4.022% of Ryanair’s voting rights, up from 3.996%, with ...
Ryanair Steps Up Share Buyback With Fresh March 2026 Purchases
Mar 23, 2026
Ryanair Holdings has continued its capital return strategy with further share repurchases carried out between 16 and 20 March 2026. The airline bought back and cancelled 9,142 ordinary shares and 569,396 ordinary shares underlying American Deposit...
Ryanair Unveils £40m Expansion of Prestwick Maintenance Hub to Support Fleet Growth
Mar 20, 2026
On 20 March 2026, Ryanair announced a £40 million expansion of its aircraft maintenance facility at Prestwick Airport in Scotland, adding a new 11,938 sq m four-bay heavy maintenance hangar and component workshops. The project will increase R...
Ryanair Opens €25m Madrid Super-Hangar as It Warns on Spain’s Rising Airport Costs
Mar 18, 2026
On 18 March 2026, Ryanair inaugurated a new €25 million, 22,000 m² maintenance hangar at Madrid Barajas Airport, its largest maintenance facility with capacity for seven aircraft and 700 high-skill jobs. The hangar expands Ryanair’...
Ryanair Cancels Nearly 581,000 Shares in Ongoing March 2026 Buy-Back
Mar 16, 2026
Ryanair Holdings disclosed that between 9 and 13 March 2026 it repurchased a total of 9,920 ordinary shares and 570,718 ordinary shares underlying American Depositary Shares for cancellation. The transactions, executed at volume-weighted average p...
Ryanair Discloses Capital Group Stake Increase Above 14% Threshold
Mar 12, 2026
Ryanair Holdings disclosed that The Capital Group Companies, Inc. has increased its stake in the airline above a key reporting threshold, according to a major shareholding notification filed in March 2026. The move underscores continued institutio...
Ryanair Director Ray Conway Buys Shares in March 2026 Transaction
Mar 11, 2026
Ryanair Holdings disclosed that non-executive director Ray Conway purchased 3,852 ordinary shares in the company at a price of €25.45 per share on 6 March 2026 in Dublin, Ireland. The transaction, reported under EU Market Abuse Regulation vi...
Ryanair Cancels Over 585,000 Shares in Early March 2026 Buyback
Mar 9, 2026
Ryanair Holdings plc disclosed that between 2 and 6 March 2026 it repurchased for cancellation 9,420 ordinary shares and 575,872 ordinary shares underlying its American Depositary Shares as part of its ongoing share buyback programme launched in M...
Ryanair Continues Share Buyback With February 2026 Share Cancellations
Feb 23, 2026
Ryanair Holdings has continued its capital return strategy with further share repurchases carried out between 16 and 20 February 2026. The airline bought 6,202 ordinary shares for cancellation on the Irish market and an additional 532,750 ordinary...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.