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Ryanair Holdings
(NASDAQ:RYAAY)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$59.00
â–˛(4.07% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:10/23/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial fundamentals—robust TTM profitability and growth alongside a conservative, improving balance sheet—partly tempered by weaker cash-flow momentum. Technical signals are neutral-to-weak (below longer-term moving averages and negative MACD), while valuation is supportive (moderate P/E and solid yield). Earnings-call commentary adds caution due to near-term fare pressure, profit decline, and limited H2 visibility despite clear longer-term cost and fleet efficiency advantages.
Positive Factors
Traffic Scale and Market Position
Sustained passenger growth and Ryanair’s very large traffic base reinforce its position as a leading European short-haul carrier. High volumes support route density, aircraft utilization, ancillary sales and purchasing advantages, helping the low-cost model compound over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Fare and Profit Pressure
Lower fares and revenue per passenger are pressuring earnings despite traffic growth, showing that volume is not currently converting into equivalent revenue momentum. If price stimulation persists, the weaker revenue mix could constrain margin recovery and reduce the benefits of scale over coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Traffic Scale and Market Position
Sustained passenger growth and Ryanair’s very large traffic base reinforce its position as a leading European short-haul carrier. High volumes support route density, aircraft utilization, ancillary sales and purchasing advantages, helping the low-cost model compound over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$26.19B
Dividend Yield2.56%
Average Volume (3M)1.76M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.6
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth13.24%
EPS Growth-1.27%
CountryUS
Employees25,863
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.80
Shares Outstanding517,923,900
10 Day Avg. Volume2,008,137
30 Day Avg. Volume1,764,591
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.30
Price to Book (P/B)2.61
Price to Sales (P/S)1.69
P/FCF Ratio14.54
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.18
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.98
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.67
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.62
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$68.45Price Target Upside20.74% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)3.74
Revenue Forecast (FY)$18.06B
Ryanair Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ryanair Holdings plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides scheduled-passenger airline services in Ireland, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company offers various ancillary services; engages in other activities conne...
How the Company Makes Money
Ryanair makes money primarily by selling airline seats and by generating ancillary revenues tied to its passenger base. (1) Passenger (ticket) revenue: The core revenue stream comes from fares paid for scheduled flights. Ryanair’s low-cost model e...
Ryanair Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 20, 2026
(Q1-2027)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed near-term picture: meaningful operational and structural strengths (debt repayment, strong cash position, extensive fuel hedging, traffic growth, fleet orders for highly efficient MAX 10s, buyback progress, and plans for in-house MROs) contrast with significant short-term headwinds (34% drop in quarterly profit, weaker fares and revenue per passenger, spike in jet fuel, higher taxes and maintenance, reduced visibility into H2, and regulatory risks). Management emphasized confidence in long-term cost advantage and market opportunities despite cautious near-term guidance.Positive Updates
Strong Traffic Growth
Q1 traffic grew 6% to 61.3 million passengers; FY2027 traffic guidance reiterated at +4% to ~216 million (H1 +6%, H2 +2%).
Negative Updates
Material Profit Decline
Q1 profit after tax of EUR 538 million, down 34% from EUR 820 million year-ago, primarily attributed to sharp oil price spike (20% of fuel unhedged in Q1) and timing shift of Easter into prior-year quarter.
Read all updates
Q1-2027 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Traffic Growth
Q1 traffic grew 6% to 61.3 million passengers; FY2027 traffic guidance reiterated at +4% to ~216 million (H1 +6%, H2 +2%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management gave no full‑year PAT number (zero H2 visibility) but reiterated FY‑27 traffic guidance of +4% to ~216m passengers (H1 +6%, H2 +2%) and warned Q2 fares are tracking modestly down (low‑ to mid‑single digits); they expect low‑single‑digit unit‑cost inflation for the year (Q1 unit cost +5%, unit cost ex‑fuel +2%). Q1 headlines: profit after tax EUR 538m (‑34% vs EUR 820m), traffic 61.3m (+6%), scheduled revenue EUR 2.91bn (‑1%), revenue per passenger ‑5%, average fares ‑6%, ancillary ~flat at ~EUR 24/pax, maintenance +15% (and D&A rising for LEAP mid‑life accruals). Fuel: Q1 unhedged spot hit ~$151/bbl; FY‑27 is 80% hedged at $67/bbl to March‑27 and FY‑28 is ~15% hedged (~$85/bbl when placed, with recent forwards higher). Balance sheet/capex: gross cash ~EUR 2.8bn after ~EUR 1.3bn debt repayments and EUR 500m CapEx, final EUR 1.2bn bond repaid, EUR 1.1bn RCF mostly undrawn (c. EUR 40m drawn), 90% of the EUR 750m buyback done at an average EUR 26.35, FY‑27 CapEx ~EUR 2bn and FY‑28 ~EUR 2.7–3.0bn, engine shop spend into 2029, and MAX‑10 deliveries starting spring 2027 (300 by Mar‑2034; ~20% more seats, ~20% less fuel).Ryanair Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 15.63B | 15.65B | 13.95B | 13.44B | 10.78B | 4.80B |
| Gross Profit | 3.57B | 3.28B | 2.65B | 3.88B | 2.22B | 120.70M |
| EBITDA | 3.59B | 3.82B | 3.07B | 3.27B | 2.44B | 381.00M |
| Net Income | 1.88B | 2.19B | 1.61B | 1.92B | 1.31B | -240.80M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 18.16B | 19.77B | 17.51B | 17.18B | 16.41B | 15.15B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.80B | 3.58B | 3.96B | 4.11B | 4.66B | 3.60B |
| Total Debt | 181.90M | 1.49B | 2.68B | 2.75B | 4.12B | 5.08B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.68B | 9.66B | 10.47B | 9.56B | 10.76B | 9.60B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.48B | 10.11B | 7.04B | 7.61B | 5.64B | 5.55B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.71B | 1.81B | 1.86B | 766.00M | 1.98B | 758.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.45B | 3.72B | 3.42B | 3.16B | 3.89B | 1.94B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.34B | -2.62B | -1.43B | -1.56B | -1.90B | -1.41B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.27B | -2.22B | -2.00B | -1.33B | -1.05B | -536.50M |
Ryanair Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
56.69
Price Trends
54.33
Negative
57.49
Negative
59.68
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.49
Negative
43.07
Neutral
56.65
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RYAAY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 56.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.92, above the 50-day MA of 54.33, and below the 200-day MA of 59.68, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RYAAY.
Ryanair Holdings Risk Analysis
Ryanair Holdings disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ryanair Holdings reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Disruptions in the aircraft and/or engine maintenance supply chain could adversely affect our operations. Q1, 2026
Ryanair Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $26.19B | 12.59 | 20.27% | 2.56% | 13.24% | -1.27% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $20.44B | 19.79 | 14.39% | 1.72% | 14.49% | 205.66% | |
51 Neutral | $660.99M | -3.54 | -93.84% | ― | 9.97% | -472.97% | |
50 Neutral | $1.85B | 47.65 | 2.10% | 4.09% | 12.24% | ― | |
46 Neutral | $1.14B | -2.92 | -120.34% | ― | 9.95% | -1057.36% | |
45 Neutral | $990.44M | -1.09 | -45.51% | ― | 3.99% | -119.13% |
* Industrials Sector Average
RYAAY
Ryanair Holdings
52.53
-8.31
-13.66%
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VLRS
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV
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ULCC
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4.94
0.59
13.56%
Ryanair Holdings Corporate Events
Ryanair Discloses Capital Group’s Cut in Major Shareholding Below 16%
Oct 19, 2026
Ryanair Holdings PLC, the Dublin-based low-cost airline giant, maintains a broad shareholder base via ordinary shares in Ireland and depository receipts in the U.S. Its scale and pan-European route network have long attracted major institutional i...
Ryanair Unveils $200m Rimini Base After Emilia-Romagna Scraps Municipal Tax
Oct 15, 2026
Ryanair, Europe and Italy’s No.1 low-cost airline, announced on 15 October 2026 a new two-aircraft base in Rimini for the Summer 2027 season, backed by a $200 million investment. The carrier plans its largest-ever schedule from the airport, ...
Ryanair Discloses T. Rowe Price Crossing 3% Voting Rights Threshold
Oct 14, 2026
Ryanair Holdings plc is a leading low-cost airline group based in Ireland, operating primarily across Europe with a focus on short-haul, budget air travel. The company’s shares are listed in both Ireland and the U.S., giving it access to a b...
Ryanair Vows to Fight High Court Bid to Ground Its Flights Over EU Ownership Rules
Oct 5, 2026
On 5 October 2026, Ryanair announced it will oppose a legal action in the Irish High Court brought by ENAA, a lobbying group led by Lufthansa and Air France/KLM and their subsidiary airlines. The group is challenging Ryanair’s compliance wit...
Ryanair September 2026 Traffic Rises 4% Despite Over 1,000 Flight Cancellations
Oct 2, 2026
In September 2026, Ryanair carried 20.1 million passengers, up 4% from 19.4 million a year earlier, while maintaining a steady load factor of 94%. The airline operated more than 111,700 flights during the month, underscoring the continued strength...
Ryanair Urges UK Government to Dismiss NATS CEO After Latest ATC System Failure
Sep 9, 2026
Ryanair has publicly demanded the removal of UK NATS chief executive Martin Rolfe following another major systems failure in UK air traffic control on 8 September 2026. The airline argues that repeated “flight plan processing” outages,...
Ryanair Continues Share Buybacks With Late-August, Early-September 2026 Cancellations
Sep 8, 2026
Ryanair Holdings plc reported that between 31 August and 4 September 2026 it bought back and cancelled a total of 208,945 ordinary shares and 151,288 ordinary shares underlying its American Depositary Shares. The trades, executed at volume-weighte...
Ryanair Trims FY27 Traffic Target as High Oil Prices Hit Winter Schedule
Sep 2, 2026
Ryanair reported that its August 2026 traffic rose 6% year-on-year to 22.2 million guests, with load factors steady at 96%, despite over 400 flight cancellations triggered by Mt. Etna eruptions. Rolling annual traffic to August 2026 increased 5% t...
Ryanair Sets September 10, 2026 Date for Annual General Meeting
Aug 12, 2026
Ryanair Holdings plc announced on August 12, 2026 that its Annual General Meeting will be held at the Ryanair Trident Building in Swords, Co. Dublin, Ireland, on Thursday, September 10, 2026, at 9:00 a.m. Irish time. The chairman’s letter, A...
Ryanair Sets New Record With 22.2 Million July 2026 Passengers
Aug 5, 2026
Ryanair reported that in July 2026 it carried 22.2 million guests, a 7% increase from 20.8 million a year earlier, while maintaining a high load factor of 96%. The airline operated more than 120,800 flights during the month, underscoring robust su...
Ryanair Confirms Total Voting Rights Following July 2026 Share Capital Update
Aug 4, 2026
Ryanair Holdings plc reported that, as of 31 July 2026, its issued share capital comprised 1,037,964,753 ordinary shares with a nominal value of €0.006 each, and the company held no shares in treasury, leaving the full issued share count out...
Ryanair Cancels Over 277,000 Shares in Late-July Buyback
Aug 3, 2026
Ryanair Holdings said that between 27 and 31 July 2026 it repurchased and cancelled 195,390 ordinary shares and 82,192 ordinary shares underlying American Depositary Shares as part of its ongoing share buy-back programme. The purchases, executed a...
Ryanair Discloses Capital Group Stake Trim Below 17% in Late July 2026
Jul 28, 2026
On 24 July 2026, asset manager The Capital Group Companies, Inc. reduced its stake in Ryanair Holdings, triggering a regulatory disclosure as its voting rights slipped below the 17% threshold. The holding fell from 17.03% to 16.91% of Ryanair̵...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.