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American Airlines
(NASDAQ:AAL)
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Rating:43Neutral
Price Target:
$12.00
▼(-13.98% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/23/26
The score is driven primarily by weak financial performance—especially negative equity, high debt, and a return to losses—partially offset by improved operating and free cash flow. Technicals add pressure (price below key moving averages and negative MACD). Earnings-call guidance reinforces near-term risk due to fuel-driven cost headwinds and expected losses, while valuation provides limited support given a negative P/E and no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Broad revenue and premium growth
Strong unit revenue across every geography and cabin, combined with faster premium growth, indicates improving revenue quality and customer mix. Premium revenue represents roughly half of ticket revenue from about 30% of seats, supporting potentially durable yields and stronger monetization of the network.
Negative Factors
Negative equity and elevated leverage
Persistently negative equity and substantial debt leave American with limited financial flexibility relative to the cyclical nature of airline demand. High leverage can constrain capital allocation, increase sensitivity to operating setbacks, and make balance-sheet repair dependent on sustained earnings and cash generation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Broad revenue and premium growth
Strong unit revenue across every geography and cabin, combined with faster premium growth, indicates improving revenue quality and customer mix. Premium revenue represents roughly half of ticket revenue from about 30% of seats, supporting potentially durable yields and stronger monetization of the network.
Read all positive factors
American Airlines Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Passenger Miles
Measures the total distance flown by paying passengers, indicating overall demand and revenue potential from passenger services.
Measures the total distance flown by paying passengers, indicating overall demand and revenue potential from passenger services.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAmerican Airlines (AAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.02B
Dividend Yield1.41%
Average Volume (3M)67.64M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.48
Revenue Growth12.32%
EPS Growth-179.51%
CountryUS
Employees141,100
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.73
Shares Outstanding661,970,000
10 Day Avg. Volume62,036,111
30 Day Avg. Volume67,636,383
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.04
Price to Book (P/B)-2.72
Price to Sales (P/S)0.19
P/FCF Ratio-14.89
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.53
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.60
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.79
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.37
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.20Price Target Upside16.13% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$63.47B
American Airlines Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
American Airlines Group Inc. functions as a prominent network air carrier, delivering scheduled air transportation for both passengers and freight. Its operations are anchored by key hubs located in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angel...
How the Company Makes Money
American Airlines makes money primarily by selling air transportation and related travel services. The largest revenue stream is passenger revenue, generated from ticket sales across its route network; pricing and total revenue depend on passenger...
American Airlines Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 22, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 28, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call had a mixed but constructive tone. American reported strong revenue, unit revenue, premium, corporate, loyalty, network, and cost-execution trends, along with substantial commercial and customer-experience progress. However, those gains were more than offset in reported results by sharply higher fuel costs, a third-quarter loss, expected fourth-quarter and full-year losses, and the need to reduce 2027 capacity growth. Management expressed confidence in returning to profitability, but near-term financial performance remains under significant pressure.Positive Updates
Third-Quarter Revenue Exceeded Guidance
Third-quarter revenue grew 19.3% year over year to $16.3 billion, above the high end of guidance and described as the strongest quarterly revenue growth of Robert Isom's career excluding the years following the pandemic.
Negative Updates
Third-Quarter Adjusted Loss
American reported an adjusted loss of $0.28 per diluted share for the third quarter. Management said it was not satisfied with the loss, although it stated that the quarter would have been solidly profitable but for the fuel spike.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Third-Quarter Revenue Exceeded Guidance
Third-quarter revenue grew 19.3% year over year to $16.3 billion, above the high end of guidance and described as the strongest quarterly revenue growth of Robert Isom's career excluding the years following the pandemic.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
American expects fourth quarter revenue to grow 19.5% to 22.5% year over year, fourth quarter CASMx to increase 2.5% to 3.5% year over year, an adjusted loss per diluted share of between $0.50 and $1.10, average fuel price of approximately $4.70 per gallon, and fourth quarter fuel expense to be approximately $2.8 billion higher year over year; for the full year, it expects fuel expense to be more than $7 billion higher than in 2025 and adjusted loss per diluted share of $1 and $1.60, while taking delivery of 47 new aircraft and spending $4 billion to $4.5 billion in capital expenditures, ending the year with net debt of approximately $30.5 billion, and achieving nearly $1 billion in annual run rate savings and more than $900 million in working capital improvements; growth in 2027 is expected to decelerate considerably, with capacity growth in the mid single digit range associated with CASMx growth to be low single digit.American Airlines Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
43
Neutral
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 60.98B | 54.63B | 54.21B | 52.79B | 48.97B | 29.88B |
| Gross Profit | 13.03B | 10.47B | 11.46B | 11.81B | 9.04B | 27.00M |
| EBITDA | 3.19B | 4.13B | 5.33B | 5.52B | 4.45B | 1.59B |
| Net Income | -481.00M | 111.00M | 846.00M | 822.00M | 127.00M | -1.99B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 65.02B | 61.77B | 61.78B | 63.06B | 64.72B | 66.47B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.29B | 6.57B | 6.98B | 7.58B | 8.96B | 12.43B |
| Total Debt | 36.27B | 35.97B | 37.54B | 40.66B | 43.69B | 46.18B |
| Total Liabilities | 69.24B | 65.50B | 65.76B | 68.26B | 70.52B | 73.81B |
| Stockholders Equity | -4.22B | -3.73B | -3.98B | -5.20B | -5.80B | -7.34B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -91.00M | -680.00M | 1.30B | 1.21B | -373.00M | 496.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.27B | 3.10B | 3.98B | 3.80B | 2.17B | 704.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.21B | -1.89B | -968.00M | -502.00M | 636.00M | -5.98B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.24B | -1.05B | -2.79B | -3.21B | -2.63B | 5.29B |
American Airlines Technical Analysis
Negative
13.95
Price Trends
13.11
Negative
14.40
Negative
13.60
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.34
Negative
41.75
Neutral
59.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AAL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.63, above the 50-day MA of 13.11, and above the 200-day MA of 13.60, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AAL.
American Airlines Risk Analysis
American Airlines disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. American Airlines reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
American Airlines Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $50.51B | 15.23 | 15.40% | 1.05% | 14.11% | -29.50% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $31.82B | 8.96 | 21.81% | ― | 12.31% | 9.08% | |
59 Neutral | $20.44B | 19.79 | 14.39% | 1.72% | 14.49% | 205.66% | |
45 Neutral | $990.44M | -1.09 | -45.51% | ― | 3.99% | -119.13% | |
44 Neutral | $3.84B | -9.75 | -10.50% | 2.16% | 8.23% | -370.75% | |
43 Neutral | $8.02B | -16.59 | 12.03% | 1.41% | 12.32% | -179.51% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AAL
American Airlines
12.11
-1.30
-9.69%
ALK
Alaska Air
34.40
-10.38
-23.18%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
76.78
16.97
28.37%
JBLU
JetBlue Airways
2.63
-2.09
-44.39%
LUV
Southwest Airlines
41.75
10.07
31.77%
UAL
United Airlines Holdings
97.93
-0.87
-0.88%
American Airlines Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
American Airlines Posts Record Revenue Amid Fuel Cost Headwinds
Neutral
Oct 22, 2026
On Oct. 22, 2026, American Airlines reported third-quarter 2026 results showing record revenue of $16.3 billion, up 19.3% year over year, driven by strong demand across premium and Main Cabin, all geographies, and a 27.6% rise in managed corporate...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
American Airlines Posts Record Q2 Revenue Amid Fuel Costs
Positive
Jul 23, 2026
On July 23, 2026, American Airlines reported second-quarter 2026 results featuring record revenue of $16.7 billion, up 16.3% year over year, and GAAP net income of $71 million, as strong demand across premium and Main Cabin, domestic and internati...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.