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Delta Air Lines
(NYSE:DAL)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$101.00
▲(40.83% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/10/26
DAL scores well primarily on strong cash generation and improved leverage, supported by affirmed EPS/FCF guidance and expectations for stronger margins in the second half. Technicals are also supportive with the stock trading above major moving averages and positive MACD. Offsetting factors are earnings volatility and notable cost pressure risks (fuel and non-fuel unit costs), while valuation is reasonable but the dividend yield is low.
Positive Factors
Cash generation & FCF improvement
Sustained, material free cash flow and a sharp FCF rebound provide durable capacity to fund fleet investment, repay debt, and return capital. Robust cash conversion improves financial flexibility across cycles and supports targeted deleveraging and shareholder programs over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Negative Factors
Large fuel cost exposure
Fuel is a major variable cost; multibillion‑dollar year‑over‑year fuel increases materially compress operating margins and cash flow. Prolonged elevated fuel prices or refinery disruptions can offset revenue momentum and constrain durable margin improvement despite operational gains.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation & FCF improvement
Sustained, material free cash flow and a sharp FCF rebound provide durable capacity to fund fleet investment, repay debt, and return capital. Robust cash conversion improves financial flexibility across cycles and supports targeted deleveraging and shareholder programs over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Read all positive factors
Delta Air Lines Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Passenger Miles
Measures the total distance flown by paying passengers, indicating demand for flights and overall airline capacity utilization.
Measures the total distance flown by paying passengers, indicating demand for flights and overall airline capacity utilization.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyDelta Air Lines (DAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$56.23B
Dividend Yield0.96%
Average Volume (3M)7.51M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.1
Beta (1Y)1.17
Revenue Growth10.28%
EPS Growth-12.67%
CountryUS
Employees103,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.08
Shares Outstanding657,623,050
10 Day Avg. Volume7,222,987
30 Day Avg. Volume7,514,621
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.21
Price to Book (P/B)2.17
Price to Sales (P/S)0.71
P/FCF Ratio11.70
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.12
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.92
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.38
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.50
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$107.47Price Target Upside49.85% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)6.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)$66.24B
Delta Air Lines Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Delta Air Lines, Inc. provides scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo in the United States and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Airline and Refinery. Its domestic network centered on core hubs in Atlanta, ...
How the Company Makes Money
Delta makes money primarily by selling passenger air transportation, with revenue largely driven by ticket sales across domestic and international routes and across fare products/cabin classes (e.g., main cabin and premium offerings). In addition ...
Delta Air Lines Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 08, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted a powerful combination of revenue momentum, operational improvements, diversified higher‑margin revenue streams (premium, loyalty, cargo, MRO), strong cash generation and a strengthened balance sheet — all enabling affirmed full‑year guidance and expanded shareholder returns. Offsetting these positives are significant fuel cost headwinds (historic fuel expense increases and a refinery outage), rising non‑fuel unit costs and some regional demand and capacity softness. On balance the call emphasized durable execution and confidence in returning to stronger margins in the back half and beyond.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Strong Top-Line Growth
June quarter total revenue of $17.7B, up 14% year‑over‑year and more than $2B higher than last year; total unit revenue (TRASM) grew 12.4% with capacity up ~1%.
Negative Updates
Historic Fuel Headwind and Rising Fuel Expense
Total fuel expense in the quarter was $4.4B (≈$2B higher YoY); fuel price per gallon averaged $3.93 (including refinery benefit); management expects total fuel expense ~40% higher than prior year and modeled Q3 all‑in fuel of ≈$3.50/gal (including $0.05 refinery benefit).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Strong Top-Line Growth
June quarter total revenue of $17.7B, up 14% year‑over‑year and more than $2B higher than last year; total unit revenue (TRASM) grew 12.4% with capacity up ~1%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Delta affirmed its full‑year guidance with EPS of $6.50–$7.50 (≈20% YoY) and free cash flow of $3–$4B (bringing a 3‑year cumulative total to >$11B), and said it expects to return to double‑digit operating margins in H2 on the path to mid‑teens margins and ROIC longer term; near‑term guidance calls for Q3 revenue growth in the mid‑teens with total unit revenue improving sequentially, Q3 capacity +1% (Q4 planned +2–3% led by international), an all‑in fuel assumption of ≈$3.50/gal (incl. $0.05 refinery benefit) with total fuel expense ~40% higher YoY, and Q3 operating margin of 11–13% with EPS $2.20–$2.50 (vs $1.70 LY). The guidance is grounded in June‑quarter results of $17.7B revenue (+14% on ~1% capacity growth) and unit revenue +12.4%, pretax profit $1.4B, EPS $1.56, operating margin ~9%, ROIC 11%, non‑fuel unit costs +6.8% YoY, H1 operating cash flow $4B and free cash flow $1.4B, adjusted net debt $13.6B (targeting gross leverage ≈2x by year‑end) and a long‑term objective of low single‑digit unit‑cost growth.Delta Air Lines Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 68.29B | 63.36B | 61.64B | 58.05B | 50.58B | 29.90B |
| Gross Profit | 18.66B | 14.47B | 16.56B | 15.52B | 11.16B | 2.13B |
| EBITDA | 8.42B | 8.03B | 7.92B | 8.78B | 5.05B | 3.67B |
| Net Income | 3.95B | 5.00B | 3.46B | 4.61B | 1.32B | 280.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 86.32B | 81.19B | 75.37B | 73.64B | 72.28B | 72.47B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.67B | 4.31B | 3.07B | 3.87B | 6.53B | 11.32B |
| Total Debt | 19.98B | 21.08B | 22.77B | 27.28B | 30.61B | 34.68B |
| Total Liabilities | 64.51B | 60.43B | 60.08B | 62.54B | 65.71B | 68.57B |
| Stockholders Equity | 21.82B | 20.75B | 15.29B | 11.11B | 6.58B | 3.89B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.07B | 3.84B | 2.88B | 1.14B | -2.00M | 16.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.13B | 8.34B | 8.03B | 6.46B | 6.36B | 3.26B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.54B | -4.19B | -3.74B | -3.15B | -6.92B | -897.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.37B | -3.08B | -4.26B | -3.39B | -4.54B | -3.85B |
Delta Air Lines Technical Analysis
Neutral
71.72
Price Trends
80.99
Positive
73.39
Positive
68.82
Positive
Market Momentum
1.63
Positive
50.18
Neutral
8.49
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DAL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 71.72 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 88.43, below the 50-day MA of 80.99, and above the 200-day MA of 68.82, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.63 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.49 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for DAL.
Delta Air Lines Risk Analysis
Delta Air Lines disclosed 2 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Delta Air Lines reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Failure of the technology we use to perform effectively could have a material adverse effect on our business. Q3, 2024
Delta Air Lines Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $56.23B | 14.14 | 23.14% | 0.96% | 10.28% | -12.67% | |
73 Outperform | $39.06B | 10.74 | 24.91% | ― | 4.73% | 1.55% | |
64 Neutral | $15.46B | 9.47 | 126.90% | 3.50% | 16.19% | 62.18% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
56 Neutral | $23.25B | 31.17 | 10.67% | 1.73% | 4.72% | 72.71% | |
52 Neutral | $5.22B | 84.00 | 1.85% | ― | 13.94% | -79.71% | |
50 Neutral | $10.36B | 50.42 | -5.17% | ― | 3.33% | -70.60% |
* Industrials Sector Average
DAL
Delta Air Lines
85.96
31.19
56.96%
ALK
Alaska Air
47.88
-3.77
-7.30%
LUV
Southwest Airlines
49.25
12.53
34.12%
UAL
United Airlines Holdings
120.97
32.50
36.74%
AAL
American Airlines
15.63
3.36
27.38%
LTM
LATAM Airlines Group SA Sponsored ADR
54.87
13.63
33.07%
Delta Air Lines Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Delta Shareholders Back Board, Governance Status Quo
Positive
Jun 22, 2026
At its June 18, 2026 annual meeting, Delta Air Lines shareholders elected all 14 director nominees to serve until the next annual meeting, maintaining continuity in board leadership and governance. Investors also delivered strong support for the c...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Delta Air Lines Establishes New $2.65 Billion Credit Facility
Neutral
Jun 12, 2026
On June 11, 2026, Delta Air Lines entered into a new credit agreement with a syndicate of lenders led by JPMorgan Chase Bank to refinance its existing November 2023 facility. The new $2.65 billion revolving credit facility, split into three-year a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.