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United Airlines Holdings
(NASDAQ:UAL)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$104.00
▼(-11.42% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/21/26
The score is led by improved core fundamentals but moderated by weakened free-cash-flow conversion and still-meaningful leverage. Valuation is supportive due to a low P/E, while technicals are a notable drag given the bearish trend and negative momentum despite oversold readings. Earnings call tone and strategic initiatives (loyalty, Starlink, network/product investments) help, but near-term fuel and cost pressures keep the outlook constrained.
Positive Factors
Revenue and demand growth
United is demonstrating broad-based demand strength, with record quarterly revenue and growth across multiple customer segments. Continued pricing power and resilient premium, business, leisure, cargo, and loyalty demand can support revenue expansion and improve operating leverage over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Debt-heavy capital structure
Although leverage has improved materially and equity has rebuilt, United remains highly indebted for a cyclical, fuel-sensitive airline. The debt burden reduces flexibility during weaker demand or profitability periods and leaves more operating cash committed to balance-sheet obligations rather than growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and demand growth
United is demonstrating broad-based demand strength, with record quarterly revenue and growth across multiple customer segments. Continued pricing power and resilient premium, business, leisure, cargo, and loyalty demand can support revenue expansion and improve operating leverage over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
United Airlines Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Average Fuel Price
Tracks the cost of fuel per gallon, a major expense for airlines, impacting profitability and pricing strategies.
Tracks the cost of fuel per gallon, a major expense for airlines, impacting profitability and pricing strategies.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyUnited Airlines Holdings (UAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$31.73B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.3
Beta (1Y)1.59
Revenue Growth12.31%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees117,500
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)10.93
Shares Outstanding324,583,770
10 Day Avg. Volume5,015,019
30 Day Avg. Volume4,432,143
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.67
Price to Book (P/B)2.39
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio14.30
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.76
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.85
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.30
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.56
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$155.56Price Target Upside32.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)7.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)$68.56B
United Airlines Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
United Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, delivers air travel solutions on a global scale. Its vast network extends across North America, Europe, Asia, Africa, the Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America, facilitating t...
How the Company Makes Money
UAL primarily makes money by selling air transportation and related travel products, with revenue largely driven by (1) passenger ticket sales and (2) ancillary and other revenue streams tied to its network and customer base. Passenger revenue com...
United Airlines Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 20, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 20, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was predominantly positive. United reported record Q3 revenue, strong pricing, broad revenue growth, operational improvements, market-share gains, substantial liquidity, and continued progress in loyalty, product, technology, and fleet initiatives. The main challenges were elevated fuel costs, a 6.2% pretax margin below the double-digit target, higher CASM ex, inflationary airport and distribution costs, lower expected fuel recapture, capacity uncertainty, and leverage of 2.4 turns. Management remained confident in United's strategy and long-term margin objectives despite these pressures.Positive Updates
Record Third-Quarter Revenue and Strong Pricing
Q3 revenue increased 17.4% year over year to a record $17.9 billion. TRASM increased 15.9%, yields increased 17%, and management said consumers and businesses have been accepting price increases.
Negative Updates
Fuel Expense Increased Significantly
Fuel prices accelerated during the quarter and drove a $1.8 billion year-over-year increase in expense. United recaptured 72% of the increase in fuel expense in Q3, and management expects fourth-quarter fuel recapture to be similar because of continued fuel-price increases.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Third-Quarter Revenue and Strong Pricing
Q3 revenue increased 17.4% year over year to a record $17.9 billion. TRASM increased 15.9%, yields increased 17%, and management said consumers and businesses have been accepting price increases.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
United expects fourth quarter earnings per share to be between $0.50 and 1.50 assuming an all in fuel price per gallon of approximately $4.80, with CASM ex that will decelerate, TRASM accelerating compared to the third quarter, fuel recapture similar to the third quarter, and RASM and yields increase sequentially from Q3 to Q4; for 2027, it targets double digit pretax margins, 2-3% CASM ex, over 100 narrow body aircraft and about 2 wide body aircraft a month, more than 1 million new co brand accounts, total loyalty revenue increase hopefully in the mid teens, at least 14% or 15% consistently for the next few years or maybe even higher, 100% fuel recapture, and fuel prices over $4 for the full year, about $4.50 for Q1, $4.20 for Q2, drifting to $3.70 by 4 q at 2027; it expects Starlink on 87% of departures by June 1 and available fleet wide by the end of 27, completion of Starlink installation on all jets by the end of 27, and O'Hare capacity capped at 600 daily flights potentially well into 2028.United Airlines Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 65.55B | 59.07B | 57.06B | 53.72B | 44.95B | 24.63B |
| Gross Profit | 43.08B | 37.88B | 19.42B | 15.20B | 10.64B | 721.00M |
| EBITDA | 8.54B | 7.54B | 8.50B | 7.83B | 5.12B | 1.50B |
| Net Income | 3.58B | 3.35B | 3.15B | 2.62B | 737.00M | -1.96B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 85.12B | 76.45B | 74.08B | 71.10B | 67.36B | 68.17B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 14.65B | 12.24B | 14.47B | 14.39B | 16.41B | 18.41B |
| Total Debt | 34.29B | 31.04B | 33.63B | 36.74B | 36.43B | 39.37B |
| Total Liabilities | 67.37B | 61.17B | 61.41B | 61.78B | 60.46B | 63.15B |
| Stockholders Equity | 17.75B | 15.28B | 12.68B | 9.32B | 6.90B | 5.03B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.12B | 2.56B | 3.83B | -260.00M | 1.25B | -40.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.16B | 8.43B | 9.45B | 6.91B | 6.07B | 2.07B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.76B | -6.35B | -2.65B | -6.11B | -13.83B | -1.67B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 549.00M | -4.95B | -4.18B | -1.89B | -3.35B | 6.40B |
United Airlines Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
117.41
Price Trends
109.73
Negative
115.72
Negative
108.42
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.39
Positive
43.33
Neutral
45.39
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UAL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 117.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 106.07, above the 50-day MA of 109.73, and above the 200-day MA of 108.42, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.39 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UAL.
United Airlines Holdings Risk Analysis
United Airlines Holdings disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. United Airlines Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
United Airlines Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $50.44B | 15.41 | 15.40% | 1.04% | 14.11% | -29.50% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $31.73B | 9.30 | 21.81% | ― | 12.31% | ― | |
58 Neutral | $19.40B | 18.90 | 14.39% | 1.81% | 9.46% | 137.74% | |
46 Neutral | $8.10B | -24.97 | 8.29% | 1.41% | 7.53% | -157.37% | |
45 Neutral | $1.10B | -1.22 | -45.51% | ― | 3.99% | -119.13% | |
44 Neutral | $3.83B | -9.50 | -10.50% | 2.16% | 8.23% | -370.75% |
* Industrials Sector Average
UAL
United Airlines Holdings
102.00
6.32
6.61%
ALK
Alaska Air
35.38
-11.25
-24.13%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
79.26
21.11
36.31%
JBLU
JetBlue Airways
2.65
-1.92
-42.01%
LUV
Southwest Airlines
42.03
10.94
35.17%
AAL
American Airlines
12.60
-0.17
-1.33%
United Airlines Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
United Airlines posts record Q3 results, boosts outlook
Positive
Oct 20, 2026
United Airlines reported strong third-quarter 2026 results on October 20, 2026, with total operating revenue up 17% year-on-year to a record $17.9 billion and diluted earnings per share of $3.14, despite a 62% jump in fuel expense. The airline ach...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.