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United Airlines Holdings
(NASDAQ:UAL)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$127.00
▲(24.75% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:07/18/26
The score is primarily driven by improved financial performance (strong profitability and better recent cash generation) balanced against meaningful balance-sheet leverage risk. Valuation is supportive due to a low P/E, while technicals reflect a recent pullback/weak momentum that tempers the near-term setup. Corporate updates are constructive, highlighting strong Q1 execution and continued debt reduction amid fuel-cost pressure.
Positive Factors
Improved Profitability
TTM operating margin (~9.8%) and net margin (~6.1%) reflect a structurally stronger earnings profile versus the loss-making period earlier in the cycle. Sustained margins improve cash generation and provide durable capacity to invest in product and network even through cyclical downturns.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Leverage remains a meaningful structural constraint for a cyclical airline: ~2.0x debt-to-equity increases vulnerability to demand shocks or cost spikes, limits strategic flexibility, and means returns are partly driven by leverage rather than purely operating performance.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved Profitability
TTM operating margin (~9.8%) and net margin (~6.1%) reflect a structurally stronger earnings profile versus the loss-making period earlier in the cycle. Sustained margins improve cash generation and provide durable capacity to invest in product and network even through cyclical downturns.
Read all positive factors
United Airlines Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Average Fuel Price
Tracks the cost of fuel per gallon, a major expense for airlines, impacting profitability and pricing strategies.
Tracks the cost of fuel per gallon, a major expense for airlines, impacting profitability and pricing strategies.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyUnited Airlines Holdings (UAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$37.46B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.36M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.0
Beta (1Y)1.46
Revenue Growth8.48%
EPS Growth6.74%
CountryUS
Employees113,200
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)10.72
Shares Outstanding324,583,770
10 Day Avg. Volume4,884,970
30 Day Avg. Volume5,362,108
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.67
Price to Book (P/B)2.39
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio14.30
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$163.46Price Target Upside60.57% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)10.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)$67.70B
United Airlines Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
United Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, delivers air travel solutions on a global scale. Its vast network extends across North America, Europe, Asia, Africa, the Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America, facilitating t...
How the Company Makes Money
UAL primarily makes money by selling air transportation and related services through several major revenue streams: (1) Passenger revenue: The largest source, generated from selling seats across different fare products and cabins (e.g., economy an...
United Airlines Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 21, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely positive operational and commercial performance: strong top-line growth, durable demand across leisure and corporate channels, improving premium and loyalty metrics, successful product investments (Starlink) and strengthened liquidity and balance sheet actions. These positives were offset by significant near-term cost pressures driven by volatile and elevated fuel prices, rising unit costs (CASM-Ex) from labor and other inflation, and some capacity and regulatory constraints at key hubs. Management communicated clear mitigation steps (fuel recovery through yield, capacity adjustments, targeted retirements and fleet refresh) and reiterated multi-year margin targets, indicating confidence in the company’s trajectory despite near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Total operating revenue up 16% year-over-year to $17.7 billion in Q2 2026; TRASM up 12.1% and load factors increased slightly, indicating robust demand.
Negative Updates
Large and Volatile Fuel Headwind
Fuel spike created a $1.12 EPS impact in the recent week; Q2 experienced a $2.3 billion year-over-year headwind from fuel; management stated that at current prices fuel is almost $6 billion higher for the year versus their initial outlook; fuel rose ~15%–20% in early July and prompted guidance adjustments.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Total operating revenue up 16% year-over-year to $17.7 billion in Q2 2026; TRASM up 12.1% and load factors increased slightly, indicating robust demand.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
United's guidance centered on near‑term EPS and fuel assumptions and reiterated medium‑term margin targets: Q3 EPS is guided to $2.50–$3.50 (using an all‑in fuel price of ≈$3.69 based on Tuesday’s curve) and full‑year 2026 EPS was tightened to $9–$11 (Q2 EPS was $1.99 at the high end of prior $1–$2 guidance); Q2 pretax margin was 4.8% and CASM‑ex rose 6.1% YoY. Management said Q2 recaptured ~50% of the recent fuel increase, expects to recover 80–90% in Q3 and full recovery by Q4, and that the most recent fuel spike equals roughly $1.12 of EPS and has raised year‑to‑date fuel costs by nearly $6 billion versus the start‑of‑year outlook (a $2.3B YoY Q2 fuel headwind). Revenue trends behind the outlook: Q2 operating revenue +16% to $17.7B, TRASM +12.1%, domestic PRASM +12.2%, international PRASM +12% (Pacific +14%, Atlantic +12.1%, Latin +10.7%), cargo +22.6%, loyalty +11.3%; selling yields are up mid‑to‑high‑teens recently, consolidated Q4 yield is currently tracking +19% YoY, Q4 booked yields are ~14 percentage points higher at the comparable booking point, and management expects Q3/Q4 RASM growth to exceed Q2 (≈58% of Q3 booked). They also reaffirm longer‑term goals of double‑digit pretax margins by 2027 (mid‑teens thereafter), core CASM‑ex of roughly 2–3% in 2027, plan to retire ≥80 aircraft in 2027, ended the quarter with $19.6B of liquidity, and raised $3.7B of new debt priced in the low‑5% range.United Airlines Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 62.90B | 59.07B | 57.06B | 53.72B | 44.95B | 24.63B |
| Gross Profit | 40.92B | 37.88B | 19.42B | 15.20B | 10.64B | 721.00M |
| EBITDA | 8.47B | 7.54B | 8.50B | 7.83B | 5.12B | 1.50B |
| Net Income | 3.50B | 3.35B | 3.15B | 2.62B | 737.00M | -1.96B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 84.57B | 76.45B | 74.08B | 71.10B | 67.36B | 68.17B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 16.64B | 12.24B | 14.47B | 14.39B | 16.41B | 18.41B |
| Total Debt | 33.67B | 31.04B | 33.63B | 36.74B | 36.43B | 39.37B |
| Total Liabilities | 67.87B | 61.17B | 61.41B | 61.78B | 60.46B | 63.15B |
| Stockholders Equity | 16.70B | 15.28B | 12.68B | 9.32B | 6.90B | 5.03B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.54B | 2.56B | 3.83B | -260.00M | 1.25B | -40.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.91B | 8.43B | 9.45B | 6.91B | 6.07B | 2.07B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.66B | -6.35B | -2.65B | -6.11B | -13.83B | -1.67B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.45B | -4.95B | -4.18B | -1.89B | -3.35B | 6.40B |
United Airlines Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
101.80
Price Trends
113.93
Positive
104.25
Positive
104.53
Positive
Market Momentum
0.84
Positive
44.68
Neutral
13.41
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 101.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 126.87, below the 50-day MA of 113.93, and below the 200-day MA of 104.53, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.84 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.41 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UAL.
United Airlines Holdings Risk Analysis
United Airlines Holdings disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. United Airlines Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
United Airlines Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $55.35B | 13.90 | 19.33% | 0.96% | 10.28% | -12.67% | |
70 Outperform | $37.46B | 10.96 | 22.50% | ― | 8.48% | 6.74% | |
64 Neutral | $15.21B | 9.00 | 126.90% | 3.50% | 16.19% | 62.18% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
56 Neutral | $23.50B | 30.59 | 10.67% | 1.73% | 4.72% | 72.71% | |
52 Neutral | $5.07B | 80.77 | 1.85% | ― | 13.94% | -79.71% | |
50 Neutral | $9.91B | 48.84 | -5.17% | ― | 3.33% | -70.60% |
* Industrials Sector Average
UAL
United Airlines Holdings
117.52
25.17
27.26%
ALK
Alaska Air
46.04
-6.57
-12.49%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
84.54
29.30
53.04%
LUV
Southwest Airlines
48.34
12.16
33.61%
AAL
American Airlines
15.14
2.82
22.89%
LTM
LATAM Airlines Group SA Sponsored ADR
51.74
11.35
28.10%
United Airlines Holdings Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
United Airlines Shareholders Back Board, Governance at Meeting
Positive
May 22, 2026
United Airlines Holdings held its annual meeting of stockholders on May 19, 2026, where investors reelected 11 board-nominated directors and union-designated representatives from the Air Line Pilots Association and the International Association of...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
United Airlines Ends Merger Talks, Reaffirms Standalone Strategy
Neutral
Apr 27, 2026
On April 27, 2026, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby disclosed that he had recently approached American Airlines about exploring a merger but that American declined to engage, effectively ending the prospect of a deal. Kirby said he believed a combi...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
United Airlines Delivers Record Q1 Results and Outlook
Positive
Apr 21, 2026
On April 21, 2026, United Airlines reported first-quarter 2026 results showing a sharp rebound in profitability, with diluted EPS up 85% year over year to $2.14 and total operating revenue up 10.6% to $14.6 billion, helped by 6.9% growth in revenu...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.