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Rithm Capital
(NYSE:RITM)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$9.00
â–¼(-11.50% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/05/26
The score is primarily constrained by financial quality—high leverage and persistently negative operating/free cash flow outweigh strong revenue growth and profitability. Technicals are supportive with strong trend/momentum (though overbought), valuation benefits from a high dividend yield, and the latest earnings call reinforced operational strength and efficiency plans while acknowledging market and MSR-related risks.
Positive Factors
Platform Scale and AUM Growth
The combination of substantial investable assets and rapid third-party AUM growth gives Rithm a broader platform for recurring management fees and capital deployment. Continued fundraising and scale can diversify earnings beyond mortgage spreads and support stronger operating leverage over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Elevated leverage increases the sensitivity of shareholder returns and capital stability to funding costs, asset values, and credit conditions. It can amplify performance in favorable markets, but it also reduces financial flexibility and raises the consequences of weaker mortgage or housing conditions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Platform Scale and AUM Growth
The combination of substantial investable assets and rapid third-party AUM growth gives Rithm a broader platform for recurring management fees and capital deployment. Continued fundraising and scale can diversify earnings beyond mortgage spreads and support stronger operating leverage over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Rithm Capital (RITM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.82B
Dividend Yield11.57%
Average Volume (3M)6.13M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.2
Beta (1Y)0.70
Revenue Growth11.86%
EPS Growth-53.30%
CountryUS
Employees7,240
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.61
Shares Outstanding558,407,040
10 Day Avg. Volume8,260,536
30 Day Avg. Volume6,126,284
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.27
Price to Book (P/B)0.73
Price to Sales (P/S)1.08
P/FCF Ratio-8.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap9.48
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.08
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.14
Enterprise Value/Ebitda36.14
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.92Price Target Upside27.01% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)2.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.86B
Rithm Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Rithm Capital Corp. operates as an asset manager focused on real estate, credit, and financial services in the United States. It operates through Origination and Servicing, Residential Transitional Lending, and Asset Management and Investment Port...
How the Company Makes Money
Rithm Capital primarily makes money through a combination of (1) net interest income from investing in mortgage-related assets, (2) cash flows and valuation changes associated with mortgage servicing rights, and (3) fees earned through its asset m...
Rithm Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and performance-oriented message: strong quarter-to-date results across asset management, mortgage origination/servicing (Newrez) and Genesis originations, meaningful AUM growth, improving real estate leasing and identified cost efficiencies. Management signaled cautious capital deployment on MSRs and acknowledged market volatility, compressed selling margins in origination, and some geographic leasing variability (San Francisco). Overall, the positives (scale expansion, solid earnings, efficiency wins, asset-level leasing gains and liquidity) materially outweigh the operational and market risks called out.Positive Updates
Scale of Platform and AUM Growth
Rithm now manages >$100 billion in investable assets (including balance sheet and third-party) with third-party AUM north of $60 billion. AUM has grown at a reported ~28% CAGR and management believes third-party AUM can meaningfully expand over the next 12–24 months.
Negative Updates
Market Volatility and MSR Valuation Risks
Management highlighted volatile markets and noted MSR pricing remains sensitive (described as negatively convex). Unlevered returns on MSR exposures were characterized as in the upper single digits, with limited margin for error, prompting a cautious stance on balance-sheet deployment.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Scale of Platform and AUM Growth
Rithm now manages >$100 billion in investable assets (including balance sheet and third-party) with third-party AUM north of $60 billion. AUM has grown at a reported ~28% CAGR and management believes third-party AUM can meaningfully expand over the next 12–24 months.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated concrete near‑term guidance and targets across businesses: Newrez is projected to originate roughly $65 billion this year (Q2 funded volume $15.9B, up 1% QoQ) and Newrez’s co‑issue MSR acquisitions were $5B (↑45% QoQ); Genesis is expected to produce just under $7B this year (Q2 origination $1.9B) with conservative portfolio metrics (loan‑to‑after‑repair value ~63%, LTV ~68%, look‑through ~76%; mix ~50% construction/34% bridge/12% Reno; fixed/ARM ~45/55); asset management AUM stands at ~$61B third‑party and >$100B total investable assets (AUM CAGR ~28%, 71% longer‑term AUM), multi‑strat fund YTD +~8% (3‑yr ~12.3%); the MSR footprint was cited at roughly $850B–$865B and the firm has ~$1B permanent capital, ~$2.1B in cash/liquidity and book value of ~$6.9B (~$12.33/share) while paying a $0.25/share dividend (~10.6% yield). On cost and capital efficiencies, management expects the Valon transition in early 2027 to save >$65M annually (cost per loan down ~21% to ~$93; post‑integration cost projected ~50% below industry), Elecor’s 9.9M sqft core portfolio is 86.5% leased (avg in‑place rent $90/sqft, WALT 8.3 years) with YTD leasing ~681k sqft at ~$100/sqft (+21.4% vs 2025), Elecor cut ~$44M of mgmt expense and closed a $283M CMBS, and the investment portfolio completed ~$6.6B residential investments and $3.7B securitizations in H1 (annual ROE ~15%), plus a $300M home‑improvement securitization.Rithm Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
27
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.66B | 5.69B | 4.74B | 3.76B | 1.67B | 2.90B |
| Gross Profit | 4.51B | 5.14B | 4.47B | 3.58B | 1.03B | 2.55B |
| EBITDA | 1.27B | 1.35B | 3.22B | 2.18B | 2.06B | 1.47B |
| Net Income | 472.30M | 681.45M | 931.50M | 622.26M | 954.52M | 772.23M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 54.11B | 53.06B | 46.05B | 39.72B | 34.59B | 39.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.55B | 7.08B | 11.17B | 9.82B | 9.29B | 10.73B |
| Total Debt | 40.23B | 39.58B | 32.79B | 26.96B | 25.33B | 31.71B |
| Total Liabilities | 44.66B | 43.81B | 38.16B | 32.62B | 27.58B | 33.07B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.52B | 8.43B | 7.79B | 7.01B | 6.94B | 6.60B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.73B | -762.62M | -2.32B | 693.60M | 5.75B | 2.86B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -1.73B | -762.62M | -2.19B | 693.60M | 5.75B | 2.88B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 14.21M | 2.24B | -2.43B | 216.72M | 132.90M | 2.31B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.10B | -602.12M | 4.83B | -842.55M | -5.82B | -4.74B |
Rithm Capital Technical Analysis
Negative
10.17
Price Trends
9.46
Negative
9.16
Negative
9.35
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.24
Positive
34.16
Neutral
23.22
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RITM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.17 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.94, above the 50-day MA of 9.46, and above the 200-day MA of 9.35, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RITM.
Rithm Capital Risk Analysis
Rithm Capital disclosed 113 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rithm Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Rithm Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $14.44B | 21.63 | 7.83% | 5.90% | 8.96% | 92.38% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
60 Neutral | $4.82B | 14.16 | 5.55% | 11.57% | 11.86% | -53.30% | |
60 Neutral | $849.80M | 7.41 | 4.81% | 5.90% | 8.24% | 11.34% | |
59 Neutral | $618.51M | 23.89 | 11.69% | 9.46% | 10.78% | -30.46% | |
53 Neutral | $1.79B | -28.70 | -0.84% | 9.81% | -29.60% | 77.14% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
RITM
Rithm Capital
8.64
-1.06
-10.93%
GOOD
Gladstone Commercial
12.68
2.34
22.62%
SAFE
Safehold
12.00
-2.17
-15.29%
WPC
W. P. Carey Inc.
63.37
-0.52
-0.82%
NXDT
NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust
5.15
2.15
71.61%
GNL
Global Net Lease
7.75
0.80
11.51%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.