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AGNC Investment
(NASDAQ:AGNC)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$9.00
▼(-17.51% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/20/26
AGNC’s score is held back primarily by balance-sheet risk (very high leverage) and weak technicals (below major moving averages with negative momentum). Offsetting factors are attractive valuation (low P/E and very high dividend yield) and a mixed-but-improving outlook from management, supported by strong liquidity and expectations for 18%–20% return potential if rate conditions stabilize.
Positive Factors
Strong recent profitability
The sharp recovery from a 2022 net loss to profits across 2023–2025 and $2.22B of trailing net income shows substantial earnings capacity. This profitability can support dividends and portfolio investment, although results remain sensitive to mortgage and funding conditions.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage
The highly leveraged capital structure magnifies exposure to funding costs, mortgage valuation changes, and liquidity stress. Even modest adverse moves in asset values or financing conditions can have an outsized effect on book value, earnings, and the company’s ability to sustain distributions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong recent profitability
The sharp recovery from a 2022 net loss to profits across 2023–2025 and $2.22B of trailing net income shows substantial earnings capacity. This profitability can support dividends and portfolio investment, although results remain sensitive to mortgage and funding conditions.
Read all positive factors
AGNC Investment Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Investment Portfolio by Segment
Displays allocation across asset types (agency MBS, cash, derivatives, other loans), indicating where yield and risk are concentrated—useful for assessing income stability, diversification, and sensitivity to housing and rate cycles.
Displays allocation across asset types (agency MBS, cash, derivatives, other loans), indicating where yield and risk are concentrated—useful for assessing income stability, diversification, and sensitivity to housing and rate cycles.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAGNC Investment (AGNC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.43B
Dividend Yield16.4%
Average Volume (3M)40.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)125.4
Beta (1Y)0.61
Revenue Growth151.78%
EPS Growth-96.75%
CountryUS
Employees54
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.96
Shares Outstanding1,185,481,400
10 Day Avg. Volume33,210,838
30 Day Avg. Volume40,432,490
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.12
Price to Book (P/B)0.88
Price to Sales (P/S)5.72
P/FCF Ratio16.74
Enterprise Value/Market Cap12.55
Enterprise Value/Revenue42.40
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit56.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda33.45
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.25Price Target Upside-15.22% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)1.56
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.19B
AGNC Investment Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AGNC Investment Corp. functions as a U.S.-based real estate investment trust (REIT). The firm primarily concentrates its investments on residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs). A defining featur...
How the Company Makes Money
AGNC’s core business model is to earn net interest income from a leveraged portfolio of agency MBS and to distribute a substantial portion of taxable income to shareholders as a REIT. It typically finances its holdings primarily through short-term...
AGNC Investment Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 19, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 01, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call was mixed. AGNC experienced a severely negative third quarter, including a negative 12.7% economic return, a $1.28 per-share comprehensive loss, significant Agency MBS underperformance, and lower net spread income. However, management highlighted attractive current MBS yields and spreads, stronger post-quarter-end tangible book value, substantial liquidity, successful capital formation, improved portfolio characteristics, active duration management, and an expected 18%-20% return opportunity. The near-term outlook remains dependent on stabilization in interest rates and macroeconomic conditions.Positive Updates
Attractive Agency MBS Valuations and Return Outlook
Management said Agency MBS valuations are considerably more attractive, with new-production current-coupon Agency MBS yielding close to 6.5%, spreads near 135 basis points to Treasuries and 165 basis points to swaps at quarter end, and an expected return on equity of approximately 18%-20% based on current mortgage pricing.
Negative Updates
Severe Third-Quarter Economic Loss
AGNC reported a third-quarter economic return of negative 12.7% and a comprehensive loss of $1.28 per common share. The result reflected historically poor fixed-income and Agency MBS performance amid monetary-policy uncertainty, mixed inflation data, high corporate debt issuance, geopolitical risk, elevated energy prices, and stronger-than-expected domestic growth.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Attractive Agency MBS Valuations and Return Outlook
Management said Agency MBS valuations are considerably more attractive, with new-production current-coupon Agency MBS yielding close to 6.5%, spreads near 135 basis points to Treasuries and 165 basis points to swaps at quarter end, and an expected return on equity of approximately 18%-20% based on current mortgage pricing.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said expected returns are in the 18%-20% range based on current mortgage pricing, with expected ROE right around 19, maybe a little bit above, using leverage at around mid seven and seven and a half range; the current coupon was 6.5% at the end of the quarter and well above six and a quarter today. The 10-year Treasury’s new range might be something like 4.90-5.40, while management expects fixed income flows to be heavy, including $25 billion in fixed income inflow in the first week of October. Management said daily originations could be down into the $1.5 billion range versus a $3 billion and $3.5 billion range, expects less TBA going forward, and said the GSEs could acquire mortgages at a similar pace to around $12 billion a month, or $35 billion-$36 billion in the first quarter, with the GSEs expected to be active in the fourth quarter; management also expects the Fed to be on hold at this next meeting and then possibly raise again in December.AGNC Investment Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.09B | 1.91B | 4.88B | 1.01B | 3.30B | 2.41B |
| Gross Profit | 2.34B | 1.91B | 4.88B | 1.01B | 3.30B | 2.41B |
| EBITDA | 3.91B | 4.70B | 3.79B | 2.44B | -552.00M | 1.19B |
| Net Income | 2.22B | 1.67B | 863.00M | 155.00M | -1.19B | 749.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 121.76B | 115.08B | 88.02B | 71.60B | 51.75B | 68.15B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 457.00M | 450.00M | 505.00M | 518.00M | 2.33B | 1.52B |
| Total Debt | 89.81B | 101.79B | 64.00M | 80.00M | 42.89B | 57.20B |
| Total Liabilities | 109.22B | 102.68B | 78.25B | 63.34B | 43.88B | 57.86B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.54B | 12.39B | 9.76B | 8.26B | 7.87B | 10.29B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 886.00M | 653.00M | 86.00M | -118.00M | 1.01B | 1.54B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 886.00M | 653.00M | 86.00M | -118.00M | 1.01B | 1.54B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -21.38B | -25.86B | -11.17B | -14.67B | 11.19B | 3.84B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 20.41B | 25.18B | 11.08B | 14.23B | -11.39B | -6.17B |
AGNC Investment Technical Analysis
Negative
10.91
Price Trends
9.76
Negative
10.03
Negative
10.04
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.31
Negative
40.60
Neutral
51.42
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGNC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.86, above the 50-day MA of 9.76, and above the 200-day MA of 10.04, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AGNC.
AGNC Investment Risk Analysis
AGNC Investment disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AGNC Investment reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AGNC Investment Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
59 Neutral | $10.43B | 125.43 | 0.48% | 16.40% | 151.78% | -96.75% | |
58 Neutral | $2.72B | 50.23 | -1.74% | 18.46% | 376.19% | -85.68% | |
55 Neutral | $13.79B | 12.51 | 6.97% | 16.10% | -3.52% | -33.98% | |
55 Neutral | $580.18M | 3.39 | 13.99% | 26.57% | 31.49% | 274.62% | |
53 Neutral | $1.79B | -427.00 | -2.19% | 22.48% | 34.24% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $939.87M | 3.29 | 18.50% | 27.10% | 89.39% | 661.99% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
AGNC
AGNC Investment
8.89
0.08
0.94%
NLY
Annaly Capital
18.34
0.09
0.48%
ARR
ARMOUR Residential REIT
12.69
-0.72
-5.40%
DX
Dynex Capital
11.05
-0.26
-2.26%
IVR
Invesco Mortgage
5.52
-0.62
-10.16%
ORC
Orchid Island Capital
4.90
-1.26
-20.44%
AGNC Investment Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
AGNC Investment Updates Executive Chair Compensation Structure
Neutral
Sep 11, 2026
On September 10, 2026, AGNC Mortgage Management, LLC amended the employment agreement of Gary Kain, Executive Chair of AGNC Investment Corp., significantly updating his performance-based compensation structure. The changes introduce a higher targe...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.