ARMOUR Residential REIT AI Stock Analysis
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ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) AI Stock Analysis
ARMOUR Residential REIT
(NYSE:ARR)
ARR scores low primarily due to weak financial performance (earnings volatility and very high leverage) and bearish technicals (price below major moving averages with negative MACD). The very high dividend yield provides some support to the valuation component, and the earnings call highlights strong liquidity and near-term dividend coverage, but those positives are outweighed by the large GAAP loss and sharp book-value decline.
ARMOUR Residential REIT Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Implied LeverageAn estimate of how much the REIT is amplified by borrowing and derivatives relative to its equity. Higher implied leverage can boost yields in good markets but also magnifies losses and increases solvency and liquidity risk during stress.
Implied leverage has been managed in a narrow band around ~8x but edged down recently toward management’s preferred ~7.5x target—reflecting active de‑risking funded by hefty equity raises. That modest pullback preserves liquidity and dividend capacity while keeping optionality to re-lever to ~8x (the example used for mid‑teens reinvestment returns) if spreads tighten. In short, ARR is prioritizing balance‑sheet flexibility over aggressive leverage, so upside now depends more on spread tightening or deliberate redeployment than on rising gross leverage.
The FlyARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $1.69B
- Dividend Yield
- 24.14%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 4.34M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- -397.7
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.60
- Revenue Growth
- -139.97%
- EPS Growth
- -148.81%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 20
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Sector Strength
- 65
- Industry
- REIT - Mortgage
ARMOUR Residential REIT Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR), founded in 2008 and based in Vero Beach, Florida, primarily allocates its capital to residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) within the United States. Its investment holdings predominantly comprise MBS that a...
How the Company Makes Money
ARR makes money primarily through the net interest income it earns on its mortgage securities portfolio. The core model is to (1) purchase RMBS that pay interest and principal cash flows, and (2) finance a substantial portion of those assets with sho...
ARMOUR Residential REIT Earnings Call Summary
The call was cautiously constructive on the medium-term Agency MBS outlook, supported by wide mortgage spreads, stable funding conditions, strong liquidity, maintained dividends and portfolio repositioning opportunities. However, those positives were balanced by a $327 million GAAP loss, a negative 12.9% total economic return, a 17% book-value decline and significant rate, spread and macroeconomic volatility during the quarter.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
ARMOUR expects liquidity to remain near $1.02 billion through the end of October, leverage was 7.9 turns as of Monday, October 19, and it has dry powder to add leverage as warranted when it has greater clarity on the macroeconomic outlook as well as inflation; it plans to eventually reinvest sales proceeds and paydowns into moderate discount priced MBS, with levered returns running from 15% to 18% depending on the coupon, expects prepayment speeds to remain broadly stable in the coming months, targets around flat duration at the back end and a very slight positive duration at the front end within very tight bands, and expects about an 80-20 mix of swaps versus futures; earnings available for distributions are expected to be in the range of the dividend for the coming quarter, with a $0.24 common dividend payable on November 27, and the base case is 2 cuts by the end of 2027 versus markets pricing about 3 to 4 cuts by the end of 2027.
ARMOUR Residential REIT Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Overall fundamentals are pressured: TTM revenue declined 11.8% and the company swung back to a net loss (-$52.1M) after 2025 profitability, indicating volatile earnings quality. Balance-sheet risk is elevated with very high leverage (debt-to-equity ~8.24x) and slightly negative ROE. Offsetting this, TTM operating/free cash flow improved to $456.2M (+42.8% FCF growth), but cash flow remains small relative to the debt load (~2.3% of total debt), limiting flexibility.
Income Statement
38NegativeBalance Sheet
22NegativeCash Flow
55Neutral| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 890.10M | 1.31B | 239.90M | 449.67M | -877.95M | 4.89M |
| Gross Profit | 842.02M | 1.27B | 206.77M | 418.09M | -903.93M | -17.61M |
| EBITDA | 529.90M | 966.80M | 509.75M | 457.87M | -92.63M | 70.58M |
| Net Income | -52.08M | 322.69M | -14.39M | -67.92M | -229.93M | 15.36M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 22.47B | 21.01B | 13.55B | 12.34B | 9.44B | 5.28B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 99.67M | 63.27M | 67.97M | 221.89M | 87.28M | 337.66M |
| Total Debt | 19.38B | 17.94B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total Liabilities | 20.12B | 18.74B | 12.19B | 11.07B | 8.32B | 4.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.35B | 2.26B | 1.36B | 1.27B | 1.11B | 1.14B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 456.23M | 124.20M | 261.46M | 132.82M | 124.08M | 11.74M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 456.23M | 124.20M | 261.46M | 132.82M | 124.08M | 11.74M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.72B | -7.28B | -1.69B | -3.04B | -3.89B | 503.58M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.09B | 7.30B | 1.31B | 3.05B | 3.53B | -330.77M |
ARMOUR Residential REIT Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.50, below the 50-day MA of 13.47, and below the 200-day MA of 15.15, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.38 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.41 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ARR.
ARMOUR Residential REIT Risk Analysis
ARMOUR Residential REIT disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ARMOUR Residential REIT reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksARMOUR Residential REIT Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
NLY61Neutral
DX51Neutral
ORC49Neutral
AGNC48Neutral
IVR47Neutral- ARR43Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sector * | 65Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% |
| NLY | 61Neutral | $13.91B | 12.26 | 6.97% | 16.43% | 22.65% | -33.98% |
| DX | 51Neutral | $2.61B | 45.77 | -1.74% | 20.26% | 142.22% | -85.68% |
| ORC | 49Neutral | $903.20M | 93.60 | -0.47% | 27.78% | 83.33% | -87.70% |
| AGNC | 48Neutral | $10.48B | 117.57 | 0.48% | 17.50% | 151.78% | -96.75% |
| IVR | 47Neutral | $549.88M | -84.00 | -3.25% | 30.95% | 85.06% | -136.22% |
| ARR | 43Neutral | $1.77B | -397.67 | -2.19% | 24.14% | -139.97% | -148.81% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARR | Armour Residential | 11.93 | -2.11 | -15.00% | |
| AGNC | AGNC Investment Corp. | 8.23 | -0.57 | -6.51% | |
| NLY | Annaly Capital Management | 17.65 | -1.14 | -6.05% | |
| DX | Dynex Capital | 10.07 | -1.47 | -12.71% | |
| IVR | Invesco Mortgage Capital | 5.04 | -1.16 | -18.68% | |
| ORC | Orchid Island Capital | 4.68 | -1.24 | -20.99% |
ARMOUR Residential REIT Corporate Events
ARMOUR Residential REIT Posts Q3 Loss, Maintains Dividends
NegativeOn October 21, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT reported an unaudited third‑quarter GAAP net loss attributable to common shareholders of $327.0 million, or $2.26 per share, driven by sizable losses on mortgage‑backed and Treasury securities despite gain...
ARMOUR Residential REIT Issues October 2026 Financial Update
NeutralOn October 21, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT released an October 2026 monthly update detailing its financial position, portfolio and funding structure as of late September and early October. The report underscored the firm’s reliance on a heavily age...
ARMOUR Residential REIT Schedules Q3 2026 Earnings Webcast
NeutralOn October 20, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. announced it would host an online, real-time webcast of its conference call with equity analysts to discuss operating results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, on Thursday, October 22,...
ARMOUR Residential REIT Declares November 2026 Cash Dividend
PositiveOn October 20, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. announced a cash dividend of $0.24 per common share for the month of November 2026, payable on November 27, 2026 to shareholders of record as of November 16, 2026. The declaration underscores the com...
ARMOUR Residential REIT Confirms October 2026 Cash Dividends
PositiveOn October 1, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT confirmed a cash dividend of $0.24 per share on its common stock for October 2026, with a holder-of-record date of October 15 and payment on October 29. This confirmation aligns with prior guidance, undersc...
ARMOUR Residential REIT Issues October 2026 Dividend Guidance
PositiveOn September 24, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT announced guidance for its October 2026 monthly cash dividend, setting the payment at $0.24 per common share for income-focused investors. The dividend will be paid on October 29, 2026 to shareholders of...
ARMOUR Residential REIT Issues September 2026 Monthly Update
PositiveOn September 11, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT released a September 2026 monthly update detailing its financial position, portfolio composition and funding structure as of late August and early September. The company reported a $22.7 billion portfoli...
ARMOUR Residential REIT Declares September 2026 Cash Dividend
PositiveOn August 27, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. announced a cash dividend of $0.24 per common share for the month of September 2026. The dividend will be paid on September 29, 2026 to shareholders of record as of September 15, 2026, reinforcing the...
ARMOUR Residential REIT Issues Monthly Portfolio and Dividend Update
PositiveOn August 14, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT released a monthly update detailing its portfolio, capital structure and dividend metrics as of late July and early August 2026. The company reported a $21.9 billion portfolio heavily concentrated in agency...
ARMOUR Residential REIT Expands Equity Issuance Capacity
PositiveOn July 24, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT amended its equity sales agreement for its at-the-market offering program, raising by 25 million the number of common shares that can be issued and bringing the total capacity under the amended arrangement to...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 23, 2026