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Dynex Capital
(NYSE:DX)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
▼(-11.61% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/19/26
The score reflects strong valuation support (low P/E and high dividend yield) and improved profitability momentum, but is held back by high leverage and weaker cash conversion, along with bearish technical signals (price below key moving averages and negative MACD). Earnings-call commentary was strategically optimistic on forward ROE and liquidity, yet contrasted with a sharp book value decline and negative total economic return.
Positive Factors
Stable interest spread
A stable spread indicates the portfolio continued producing income despite higher financing costs and market repricing. Maintaining the spread supports recurring net interest earnings, helps preserve dividend coverage, and demonstrates that portfolio selection and hedging remain effective over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
High and rising leverage
The heavily leveraged balance sheet makes earnings and equity value sensitive to funding costs, asset prices, and mortgage spread movements. Although leverage supports portfolio income, the higher debt burden reduces financial flexibility and can amplify losses when market conditions move against the company.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Stable interest spread
A stable spread indicates the portfolio continued producing income despite higher financing costs and market repricing. Maintaining the spread supports recurring net interest earnings, helps preserve dividend coverage, and demonstrates that portfolio selection and hedging remain effective over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Dynex Capital (DX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.72B
Dividend Yield18.46%
Average Volume (3M)7.97M
Price to Earnings (P/E)50.2
Beta (1Y)0.50
Revenue Growth376.19%
EPS Growth-85.68%
CountryUS
Employees28
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.65
Shares Outstanding248,166,920
10 Day Avg. Volume8,441,855
30 Day Avg. Volume7,968,305
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.09
Price to Book (P/B)0.71
Price to Sales (P/S)3.26
P/FCF Ratio14.39
Enterprise Value/Market Cap9.34
Enterprise Value/Revenue28.63
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit37.46
Enterprise Value/Ebitda32.90
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.25Price Target Upside-5.84% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)1.43
Revenue Forecast (FY)$403.06M
Dynex Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Dynex Capital, Inc. operates as a mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT), primarily engaging in the leveraged acquisition of various mortgage-backed securities (MBS) within the United States. Its investment portfolio includes both agency an...
How the Company Makes Money
Dynex Capital makes money primarily through net interest income generated from its investment portfolio. It purchases mortgage-backed securities (most notably agency RMBS) that pay interest and principal cash flows; these assets are typically fina...
Dynex Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 19, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 01, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strategically optimistic despite materially negative third-quarter results. Dynex reported a 15.4% decline in book value, a negative total economic return, and a comprehensive loss amid sharply higher Treasury yields and wider mortgage spreads. However, management emphasized that liquidity, hedging, financing access, capital raising, and preserved earnings power performed as intended, while current agency MBS spreads and modeled forward returns were described as highly attractive. The balance of management commentary was constructive about the forward opportunity, although the quarter's realized performance was clearly weak.Positive Updates
Accretive Capital Raising and Greater Capital Flexibility
Dynex raised $384 million of accretive capital during the quarter, including $268 million of common equity through its ATM program and $116 million of net proceeds from its first preferred equity offering since 2020. Preferred equity increased from approximately 3% to 7% of the total equity base, diversifying the capital structure.
Negative Updates
Significant Decline in Book Value
Book value per common share declined 15.4%, from $12.90 at June 30 to $10.91 at September 30.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Accretive Capital Raising and Greater Capital Flexibility
Dynex raised $384 million of accretive capital during the quarter, including $268 million of common equity through its ATM program and $116 million of net proceeds from its first preferred equity offering since 2020. Preferred equity increased from approximately 3% to 7% of the total equity base, diversifying the capital structure.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said the portfolio could generate “20%+ ROE” in the future, with forward returns “in the low to mid-20s”; at today’s wider spreads, static ROE on new investments hedged with interest rate swaps is “around 20% in lower coupons and 25% in current coupons,” based on leverage “around 10,” while the existing quarter-end leverage was 9.0x shareholders’ equity. Management remains focused on a 2% G&A-to-total-equity ratio, said preferred equity at 7% of the total equity base “has room to go higher” through opportunistic capital decisions, and said the portfolio’s earnings power and ability to cover the dividend are “relatively well preserved.”Dynex Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 886.86M | 533.52M | 318.03M | 132.60M | -2.37M | 66.76M |
| Gross Profit | 677.89M | 533.52M | 318.03M | 132.60M | -2.37M | 66.76M |
| EBITDA | 771.89M | 740.33M | 429.42M | 211.63M | 189.13M | 110.24M |
| Net Income | 436.18M | 319.07M | 113.90M | -6.13M | 143.16M | 102.26M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 26.42B | 17.34B | 8.18B | 6.37B | 3.61B | 3.64B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 607.56M | 930.39M | 377.23M | 119.64M | 332.04M | 366.02M |
| Total Debt | 22.64B | 13.91B | 6.59B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 23.24B | 14.88B | 7.00B | 5.50B | 2.70B | 2.87B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.18B | 2.46B | 1.18B | 870.74M | 901.33M | 771.28M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 236.58M | 120.82M | 14.39M | 62.20M | 126.35M | 146.97M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 236.58M | 120.82M | 14.39M | 62.20M | 126.35M | 146.97M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -14.92B | -8.07B | -1.03B | -2.96B | -65.44M | -555.38M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 15.16B | 8.26B | 1.40B | 2.69B | -32.34M | 519.98M |
Dynex Capital Technical Analysis
Neutral
13.01
Price Trends
11.70
Negative
11.99
Negative
12.10
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.24
Negative
49.21
Neutral
61.83
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 13.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.81, above the 50-day MA of 11.70, and above the 200-day MA of 12.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for DX.
Dynex Capital Risk Analysis
Dynex Capital disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Dynex Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Dynex Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
60 Neutral | $1.48B | 6.96 | 11.87% | 13.66% | 30.22% | 35.19% | |
59 Neutral | $10.43B | 125.43 | 0.48% | 16.40% | 151.78% | -96.75% | |
58 Neutral | $2.72B | 50.23 | -1.74% | 18.46% | 376.19% | -85.68% | |
55 Neutral | $13.79B | 12.51 | 6.97% | 16.10% | -3.52% | -33.98% | |
53 Neutral | $1.79B | -427.00 | -2.19% | 22.48% | 34.24% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $939.87M | 3.29 | <0.01% | 27.10% | 89.39% | 661.99% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
DX
Dynex Capital
11.05
-0.26
-2.26%
AGNC
AGNC Investment
8.89
0.08
0.94%
NLY
Annaly Capital
18.34
0.09
0.48%
ARR
ARMOUR Residential REIT
12.69
-0.72
-5.40%
EFC
Ellington Financial
11.63
-0.34
-2.82%
ORC
Orchid Island Capital
4.90
-1.26
-20.44%
Dynex Capital Corporate Events
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Dynex Capital Completes Underwritten Equity Offering Transaction
Positive
Sep 29, 2026
On September 29, 2026, Dynex Capital closed its previously announced offering of underwritten shares, marking the completion of a capital-raising transaction that had been in progress. In connection with the issuance and sale of these shares, the ...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
Dynex Capital Prices Series D Preferred Stock Offering
Positive
Sep 25, 2026
On September 22, 2026, Dynex Capital, Inc. priced a public offering of 4,800,000 shares of 9.375% Series D Fixed‑Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock, with a $25.00 per‑share liquidation preference, for expected gross proceeds of...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Dynex Capital Expands At-The-Market Equity Program
Positive
Jul 28, 2026
On July 28, 2026, Dynex Capital, Inc. amended its existing at-the-market equity distribution agreement with a syndicate of major investment banks, increasing the total number of common shares authorized for sale to 301,292,973, of which 99,326,438...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.