Apollo Real Estate (ARI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.34B
• Dividend Yield: 10.33%
• Average Volume (3M): 845.82K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.77
• Revenue Growth: -26.29%
• EPS Growth: -342.06%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.26
• Shares Outstanding: 138,943,830
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 905,568
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 845,815
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 6.68
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 14.20
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 17.73
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -188.75
• 1Y Price Target: $10.50
• Price Target Upside: 8.47% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.00 ▲(3.31% Upside)

Apollo Real Estate's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its financial performance challenges, including high leverage and negative profitability. The positive sentiment from the earnings call, highlighting strong loan originations and refinancing efforts, provides some optimism. Technical indicators and valuation metrics suggest caution, with mixed signals and a high dividend yield offset by a negative P/E ratio.

Positive Factors

Strong Loan Originations

The significant loan originations indicate robust demand for ARI's offerings, enhancing its revenue base and supporting long-term growth.

Successful Refinancing

Refinancing efforts improve financial flexibility and reduce near-term liquidity risks, supporting sustainable operations and strategic initiatives.

Residential Loan Focus

A focus on residential loans positions ARI to capitalize on favorable market trends, enhancing portfolio stability and growth potential.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage limits financial flexibility and increases risk, potentially impacting ARI's ability to navigate economic downturns effectively.

Negative Profit Margins

Negative profit margins highlight operational inefficiencies and profitability issues, which could hinder long-term financial health and investor confidence.

Non-Earning Assets

Non-earning assets strain cash flow and leverage, posing risks to ARI's financial stability and ability to generate consistent returns.

Apollo Real Estate Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments in the United States. It is qualified as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income taxes, if the company distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its stockholders. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is based in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Apollo Real Estate generates revenue primarily through rental income from its properties, which includes lease agreements with tenants across its portfolio. Additionally, the company earns income from property sales and development projects, where it capitalizes on appreciation and value-add strategies. Key revenue streams also include management fees from investment funds and partnerships, as well as performance fees tied to the profitability of its investments. Significant partnerships with institutional investors and real estate developers further enhance its earnings potential by enabling access to larger capital pools and collaborative development opportunities.

Apollo Real Estate Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Apollo Real Estate demonstrates stable revenue growth and improving profitability, supported by strong operational efficiency. However, the balance sheet shows high leverage, typical for the mortgage REIT industry, and while cash generation capabilities are robust, the overall financial position is moderated by challenges in profitability and high debt levels.

Income Statement

Apollo Real Estate's income statement shows a stable revenue base with recent growth, as evidenced by a TTM revenue of $304.9 million, slightly up from $303.7 million in 2024. However, profitability metrics are mixed. The TTM gross profit margin is strong at approximately 79%, but net profit margins have fluctuated, with a TTM net income of $10.9 million compared to a loss in 2024, indicating improving profitability. The EBIT margin in TTM is robust at around 70.4%, showcasing operational efficiency. Despite recent challenges, the company is showing positive trends in profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet presents a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio is high, with total debt at $6.8 billion and stockholders' equity at $1.86 billion for TTM, indicating significant leverage typical for the REIT industry. The equity ratio is about 21.2%, suggesting moderate equity financing. The return on equity (ROE) is low but positive at approximately 0.58% in TTM, reflecting modest returns generated on shareholders' equity. Overall, the balance sheet suggests a high reliance on debt, consistent with industry norms.

Cash Flow

Apollo Real Estate's cash flow statement indicates a strong operating cash flow of $186.7 million in TTM, demonstrating solid cash generation capabilities. The free cash flow for the TTM period stands at $55.1 million, showing an improvement from previous periods. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high, reflecting efficient cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also favorable, indicating effective cash management despite fluctuations in net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	632.92M	701.53M	777.00M	641.34M	421.23M	342.84M
Gross Profit	506.86M	195.66M	658.02M	268.89M	360.50M	303.09M
EBITDA	-47.61M	-634.86M	0.00	650.37M	417.10M	138.75M
Net Income	-4.17M	-119.64M	58.13M	265.23M	223.51M	18.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.82B	8.41B	9.30B	9.57B	8.42B	6.94B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	177.62M	317.40M	225.44M	222.03M	343.11M	325.50M
Total Debt	7.82B	6.39B	6.95B	6.97B	6.01B	4.52B
Total Liabilities	7.97B	6.54B	7.09B	7.21B	6.12B	4.67B
Stockholders Equity	1.85B	1.87B	2.21B	2.35B	2.29B	2.27B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	83.68M	30.75M	201.23M	234.67M	199.25M	164.05M
Operating Cash Flow	199.71M	200.26M	273.86M	267.70M	199.38M	164.05M
Investing Cash Flow	-462.70M	577.17M	68.42M	-1.34B	-1.36B	-215.72M
Financing Cash Flow	262.19M	-689.31M	-343.36M	957.97M	1.18B	-75.12M

Apollo Real Estate Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 9.68
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.12, below the 50-day MA of 10.11, and above the 200-day MA of 9.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.94 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ARI.

Apollo Real Estate Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LADR	71 Outperform	$1.33B	14.88	5.83%	8.81%	-13.74%	-11.53%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
CIM	63 Neutral	$1.04B	10.23	7.32%	11.57%	4.83%	-25.07%
DX	60 Neutral	$1.69B	16.57	4.93%	14.79%	35.01%	1115.85%
ARI	52 Neutral	$1.34B	―	-0.35%	10.33%	-26.29%	-342.06%
PMT	52 Neutral	$1.02B	16.25	5.50%	13.59%	1.71%	-56.69%
ARR	48 Neutral	$1.76B	8.01	-2.04%	18.41%	157.34%	91.67%

Apollo Real Estate Corporate Events

Apollo Real Estate Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting

On June 10, 2025, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where approximately 76.7% of the company’s common stock was represented. During the meeting, stockholders elected nine directors for terms expiring in 2026, ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, and approved the compensation of the company’s executive officers.