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Apollo Real Estate
(NYSE:ARI)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
▼(-12.54% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/30/26
The score is primarily weighed down by elevated financial risk (high leverage and volatile results) and major negative corporate actions (approved dissolution/liquidation), reinforced by weak technical momentum. Low P/E and a high dividend yield provide some valuation support, but the dividend signal appears high-risk given the broader context.
Positive Factors
Senior-Secured Lending Focus
A concentration in first mortgages and senior secured loans provides a defined lending model with claims supported by income-producing real estate. This security focus can improve recovery prospects and portfolio defensiveness compared with less-protected real estate investments, subject to property values and borrower performance.
Negative Factors
Approved Liquidation and Dissolution
Approved dissolution is a fundamental change that ends ARI’s ordinary operating model and shifts the company toward asset liquidation and winding up. This limits the durability of future lending operations, reduces strategic continuity, and makes shareholder outcomes dependent on the liquidation process.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Senior-Secured Lending Focus
A concentration in first mortgages and senior secured loans provides a defined lending model with claims supported by income-producing real estate. This security focus can improve recovery prospects and portfolio defensiveness compared with less-protected real estate investments, subject to property values and borrower performance.
Read all positive factors
Apollo Real Estate (ARI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$800.83M
Dividend Yield46.76%
Average Volume (3M)2.41M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.8
Beta (1Y)0.76
Revenue Growth-63.13%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.79
Shares Outstanding128,544,360
10 Day Avg. Volume2,780,966
30 Day Avg. Volume2,410,199
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.07
Price to Book (P/B)0.72
Price to Sales (P/S)1.89
P/FCF Ratio31.77
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.75Price Target Upside12.97% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.46
Revenue Forecast (FY)$137.51M
Apollo Real Estate Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. functions as a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) with a core focus on the U.S. market. The company specializes in originating, purchasing, maintaining, and overseeing a diverse portfolio of debt instru...
How the Company Makes Money
ARI primarily makes money by earning net interest income on its commercial real estate debt investments. The core revenue stream is interest income collected from borrowers on loans it originates or acquires (most notably first mortgage loans), mi...
Apollo Real Estate Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call reflected a largely positive restructuring outcome driven by the successful $9.0B portfolio sale, a strengthened liquidity position (~$1.3B cash), debt paydown and a clear path for deleveraging and return of capital. Operational bright spots include leasing momentum at the Brook and strong performance at the Mayflower hotel, alongside accretive share repurchases and an affirmed dividend target (~8% yield on book value). Offsetting items were a modest decline in net interest income (-7.7%), higher interest expense (+8.6%), a small drop in book value per share (-~1.1%), remaining nonaccrual exposure ($42M hotel loan), and execution/timing risk around resolving the remaining REO assets and finalizing a strategic path. Overall, the positives from the transaction, balance sheet de-risking, and shareholder actions outweigh the near-term operational and market headwinds.Positive Updates
Completed $9.0B Loan Portfolio Sale
Closed sale of the company's $9.0 billion loan portfolio to Athene on April 24, resulting in repayment of secured financing facilities and other indebtedness and delivering a compelling premium to ARI stockholders.
Negative Updates
Net Interest Income Decline
Net interest income fell to $36 million in Q1 2026 from $39 million in Q1 2025, a decrease of ~7.7%, reflecting margin pressure despite higher interest income from loans.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Completed $9.0B Loan Portfolio Sale
Closed sale of the company's $9.0 billion loan portfolio to Athene on April 24, resulting in repayment of secured financing facilities and other indebtedness and delivering a compelling premium to ARI stockholders.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the call management provided quantitative guidance and near-term milestones: ARI completed the sale of its $9.0 billion loan portfolio and now holds approximately $1.3 billion of cash plus four REO assets with roughly $900 million gross value (two assets — the Brook and the Mayflower — represent ~80% of REO net equity value), with the Brook ~80% leased at market rates and ~70% leased for affordable units (95% of units selected) and expected to stabilize by this summer, the Mayflower generating net cash flow well ahead of budget in Q1 with further upside expected, the Courtland Grand underperforming in Q1 but expected to be brought in line for the year via business‑interruption insurance and World Cup demand, and two former hospital assets totaling about $24 million book value undergoing rezoning discussions; Q1 2026 financials included net income available to common of $23 million ($0.16/diluted share), distributable earnings of $31 million ($0.22/diluted share), net interest income of $36 million (vs. $39 million in Q1 2025), interest income from commercial mortgage loans of $150 million (up from $144 million, driven by ~$1.2 billion portfolio growth on an amortized cost basis), and interest expense of $114 million (up from $105 million); book value per share was $12.01 at 3/31/26 (vs. $12.14 at 12/31/25) with pro forma BVPS of $12.15 at closing of the portfolio sale, share repurchases totaled ~6.8 million shares YTD (2.9M in Q1 at $10.52 avg; 3.9M post‑quarter at $10.72 avg) producing $0.07 BVPS accretion YTD ($0.03 Q1, $0.04 Q2) and a new $150 million repurchase authorization was approved, the Board will announce the Q2 dividend a few weeks before quarter end (targeting an ~8% annualized dividend yield on book value per share, with future dividends likely to include a significant return of capital), and management expects to provide meaningful strategic clarity within the next few months while maintaining conservative, largely unlevered liquidity (REIT asset tests are measured at quarter end, income test annually).Apollo Real Estate Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 261.05M | 710.49M | 701.53M | 777.00M | 641.34M | 421.23M |
| Gross Profit | 20.06M | 568.76M | 560.39M | 649.77M | 549.15M | 357.85M |
| EBITDA | 525.51M | 598.31M | 396.38M | 532.93M | 536.46M | 388.68M |
| Net Income | 132.00M | 126.72M | -119.64M | 58.13M | 265.23M | 223.51M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.14B | 9.90B | 8.41B | 9.30B | 9.57B | 8.42B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.24B | 139.82M | 317.40M | 225.44M | 222.03M | 343.11M |
| Total Debt | 371.43M | 7.92B | 6.39B | 6.95B | 6.97B | 6.01B |
| Total Liabilities | 881.44M | 8.04B | 6.54B | 7.09B | 7.21B | 6.12B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.25B | 1.86B | 1.87B | 2.21B | 2.35B | 2.29B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 43.62M | 42.31M | 30.75M | 201.23M | 234.67M | 199.25M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 86.46M | 142.52M | 200.26M | 273.86M | 267.70M | 199.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 8.77B | -1.39B | 577.17M | 68.42M | -1.34B | -1.36B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.79B | 1.06B | -689.31M | -343.36M | 957.97M | 1.18B |
Apollo Real Estate Technical Analysis
Negative
6.86
Price Trends
6.68
Negative
6.80
Negative
6.71
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.15
Positive
23.97
Positive
15.31
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.86 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.51, above the 50-day MA of 6.68, and above the 200-day MA of 6.71, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 23.97 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.31 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ARI.
Apollo Real Estate Risk Analysis
Apollo Real Estate disclosed 77 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Apollo Real Estate reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Apollo Real Estate Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
58 Neutral | $5.32B | 20.11 | 3.40% | 14.22% | 10.66% | -45.26% | |
57 Neutral | $486.72M | 11.33 | 5.45% | 15.34% | 3.78% | -15.19% | |
51 Neutral | $509.89M | -16.49 | -2.91% | 16.71% | -0.14% | -10.71% | |
49 Neutral | $228.03M | -51.00 | -0.88% | 15.63% | 28.95% | 76.08% | |
48 Neutral | $2.07B | 143.13 | 0.45% | 16.42% | -3.93% | ― | |
47 Neutral | $800.83M | 7.85 | 7.78% | 46.76% | -63.13% | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
ARI
Apollo Real Estate
6.20
>-0.01
-0.06%
ACRE
Ares Commercial
3.84
-0.11
-2.74%
BXMT
Blackstone Mortgage
11.45
-5.11
-30.86%
STWD
Starwood Property
13.50
-3.82
-22.06%
TRTX
Tpg Re Finance
6.26
-1.34
-17.60%
BRSP
BrightSpire Capital
3.83
-0.93
-19.59%
Apollo Real Estate Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Apollo Real Estate Shareholders Approve Company Dissolution Plan
Negative
Sep 29, 2026
On September 29, 2026, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc., its operating subsidiary and external manager executed a Termination Agreement to end their amended and restated management agreement. The termination will become effective when t...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Apollo Real Estate Suspends Stock Purchase and DRIP Plan
Negative
Sep 16, 2026
On September 16, 2026, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. notified stockholders that it will indefinitely suspend its Direct Stock Purchase and Dividend Reinvestment Plan, effective September 29, 2026, with the possibility of terminating ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.