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Blackstone Mortgage
(NYSE:BXMT)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$11.00
▼(-21.60% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (earnings volatility, revenue/cash flow weakening, and high leverage) and bearish technical trend (price below all major moving averages). A very high dividend yield and a constructive earnings-call strategy narrative (portfolio rotation, liquidity, reduced office exposure) provide partial support, but are tempered by impairments, higher reserves, and near-term dividend/earnings uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Portfolio rotation and diversification
Active reinvestment into homebuilder finance, net lease, residential, and industrial assets broadens BXMT’s earnings base beyond legacy exposures. Smaller, more granular investments may improve diversification and support recurring income as repayments are redeployed.
Negative Factors
High leverage and balance-sheet contraction
Persistently high leverage leaves BXMT more sensitive to credit losses, funding costs, and changes in collateral values. The concurrent decline in assets and equity indicates a contracting balance sheet, reducing financial flexibility and limiting the cushion available to absorb further stress.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Portfolio rotation and diversification
Active reinvestment into homebuilder finance, net lease, residential, and industrial assets broadens BXMT’s earnings base beyond legacy exposures. Smaller, more granular investments may improve diversification and support recurring income as repayments are redeployed.
Read all positive factors
Blackstone Mortgage (BXMT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.86B
Dividend Yield17.04%
Average Volume (3M)2.71M
Price to Earnings (P/E)137.9
Beta (1Y)0.58
Revenue Growth-3.93%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.08
Shares Outstanding168,543,600
10 Day Avg. Volume3,556,799
30 Day Avg. Volume2,705,194
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.19
Price to Book (P/B)0.93
Price to Sales (P/S)2.15
P/FCF Ratio11.86
Enterprise Value/Market Cap9.82
Enterprise Value/Revenue11.98
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.47
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.00Price Target Upside21.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)$616.24M
Blackstone Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) functions as a real estate finance entity, primarily engaged in originating senior-level debt secured by commercial properties. These investment activities span across North America, Europe, and Australia. Fo...
How the Company Makes Money
BXMT makes money primarily from the net interest income it earns by lending at floating-rate (or otherwise interest-bearing) terms on its commercial mortgage loan portfolio and funding those loans with a mix of secured borrowings (such as repurcha...
Blackstone Mortgage Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a constructive strategic narrative: management is actively recycling capital into diversified, higher-conviction sectors (net lease, home builder finance, residential, industrial), has materially reduced office exposure, demonstrated strong capital markets execution and maintained liquidity. Offsetting these positives are near-term earnings pressures from three loan impairments, a notable CECL reserve build ($0.80/share increase to total CECL $2.43/share), a GAAP net loss ($0.48/share), a QoQ book value decline of ~4%, and concentrated stress in a ~$1 billion subset of watchlist office loans. Overall, the company presented substantial forward-looking actions and momentum that appear to outweigh the near-term credit and accounting headwinds, but management flagged potential short-term impacts to distributable earnings and the dividend while they execute the portfolio rotation.Positive Updates
Strong capital recycling and reinvestment
Collected $1.2 billion of repayments in Q2 (mostly pre-2023 vintage) and reinvested $1.4 billion into new investments; collected another ~$1.4 billion in July. Management also referenced approximately $13 billion of repayments over the period that have driven redeployment into higher-conviction sectors.
Negative Updates
GAAP net loss and distributable earnings headwinds
Reported a GAAP net loss of $0.48 per share for Q2 and distributable earnings (DE) of $0.31 per share. DE prior to realized gains/losses was $0.48, down $0.01 from the prior quarter. Management said Q3 DE will be impacted by recent impairments and the timing of large repayments, creating short-term earnings uncertainty.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong capital recycling and reinvestment
Collected $1.2 billion of repayments in Q2 (mostly pre-2023 vintage) and reinvested $1.4 billion into new investments; collected another ~$1.4 billion in July. Management also referenced approximately $13 billion of repayments over the period that have driven redeployment into higher-conviction sectors.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that Q2 results and near-term outlook reflect active portfolio rotation and that distributable earnings (DE) in Q2 were $0.31/share (DE prior to realized gains/losses $0.48/share), which covered the $0.47/share dividend, but warned Q3 DE will be impacted by the new loan impairments and timing of large repayments collected in July; book value ended at $19.31/share (down 4% QoQ) and includes $2.43/share of CECL reserves ($1.13 general, $1.30 asset‑specific, CECL up $0.80/share), liquidity of $1.2B, and a Q2 debt-to-equity of 3.9x (from 3.7x). They reiterated portfolio metrics and targets: $17B loan portfolio across 133 loans (97% performing), $1.2B repayments in Q2 plus ~$1.4B in July (≈$13B over the period), $1.4B of new investments in Q2 (including $1.1B of loans at 61% average LTV), net lease owned $661M, JV capital $322M, average investment size down from >$130M to ~$20M, office exposure reduced from 36% to 21% of the ~$20B portfolio, watchlist down to $2B (with a $1B subset sensitive to rates), borrowers have injected ~$800M of subordinate capital since end-2023, and management expects to reduce office and legacy pre‑2023 loan exposure by 40%+ by year‑end while evaluating dividends with the board based on long‑term earnings power.Blackstone Mortgage Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
48
Neutral
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.52B | 1.52B | 1.77B | 2.01B | 1.32B | 847.73M |
| Gross Profit | 1.01B | 1.17B | 1.65B | 1.89B | 1.21B | 759.26M |
| EBITDA | 1.11B | 1.17B | 1.10B | 1.62B | 1.01B | 803.92M |
| Net Income | 15.35M | 109.57M | -204.09M | 246.56M | 248.64M | 419.19M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 19.40B | 20.00B | 19.80B | 24.04B | 25.35B | 22.70B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 432.83M | 452.53M | 323.48M | 350.01M | 291.34M | 551.15M |
| Total Debt | 15.81B | 16.16B | 15.73B | 19.30B | 20.44B | 17.90B |
| Total Liabilities | 16.14B | 16.50B | 16.01B | 19.65B | 20.81B | 18.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.26B | 3.50B | 3.79B | 4.37B | 4.52B | 4.59B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 118.12M | 275.87M | 365.86M | 458.84M | 396.82M | 382.48M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 118.12M | 275.87M | 366.45M | 458.84M | 396.82M | 382.48M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 590.49M | 359.40M | 3.50B | 1.44B | -3.25B | -5.63B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.09B | -514.42M | -3.88B | -1.85B | 2.61B | 5.51B |
Blackstone Mortgage Technical Analysis
Negative
14.03
Price Trends
12.85
Negative
14.69
Negative
16.21
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.62
Positive
22.82
Positive
15.02
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BXMT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.83, above the 50-day MA of 12.85, and below the 200-day MA of 16.21, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.62 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 22.82 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.02 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BXMT.
Blackstone Mortgage Risk Analysis
Blackstone Mortgage disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Blackstone Mortgage reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Blackstone Mortgage Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
56 Neutral | $4.70B | 18.94 | 3.40% | 15.11% | 10.66% | -45.26% | |
55 Neutral | $450.63M | 10.63 | 5.45% | 16.35% | 3.78% | -15.19% | |
51 Neutral | $352.30M | -1.82 | -16.70% | 11.73% | -19.57% | -397.76% | |
48 Neutral | $1.86B | 137.88 | 0.45% | 17.04% | -3.93% | ― | |
48 Neutral | $196.96M | -47.14 | -0.88% | 16.90% | 28.95% | 76.08% | |
47 Neutral | $802.12M | 7.90 | 7.78% | 46.46% | -63.13% | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
BXMT
Blackstone Mortgage
10.83
-5.44
-33.42%
ARI
Apollo Real Estate
6.30
0.23
3.81%
ACRE
Ares Commercial
3.57
-0.33
-8.56%
STWD
Starwood Property
12.52
-4.14
-24.83%
KREF
Kkr Real Estate Finance
5.75
-2.02
-25.97%
TRTX
Tpg Re Finance
5.83
-1.77
-23.26%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.