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Kkr Real Estate Finance
(NYSE:KREF)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$7.50
▲(2.18% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/27/26
The score is primarily held back by weakening financial performance (revenue contraction, recurring losses) combined with elevated leverage, which increases sensitivity to credit outcomes. The earnings call adds cautious support via liquidity, repayments, and dividend-coverage guidance, but near-term credit/portfolio risks (book value decline, watch list/REO) remain significant. Technicals and the high dividend yield provide partial offset but are not strong enough to overcome the fundamental and execution risks.
Positive Factors
Managerial Platform Access
Being externally managed by a large, established global alternative asset manager gives durable sourcing, underwriting and financing advantages. KKR's platform supports access to deal flow, capital partners and structuring expertise that can persistently improve origination quality and funding options over months.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
High leverage magnifies losses and reduces financial flexibility; with leverage above target, the firm remains sensitive to funding spreads, covenant pressure and valuation shocks. Over months this increases refinancing and liquidity risk if credit stress or slower repayments persist.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Managerial Platform Access
Being externally managed by a large, established global alternative asset manager gives durable sourcing, underwriting and financing advantages. KKR's platform supports access to deal flow, capital partners and structuring expertise that can persistently improve origination quality and funding options over months.
Read all positive factors
Kkr Real Estate Finance (KREF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$410.72M
Dividend Yield12.21%
Average Volume (3M)1.12M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.60
Revenue Growth-19.57%
EPS Growth-397.76%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.28
Shares Outstanding58,577,950
10 Day Avg. Volume1,528,103
30 Day Avg. Volume1,120,749
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.47
Price to Sales (P/S)1.20
P/FCF Ratio8.23
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.25Price Target Upside-1.23% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.16
Revenue Forecast (FY)$94.32M
Kkr Real Estate Finance Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF) operates as a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT), primarily focused on originating and acquiring first-lien debt secured by commercial properties. Its investment strategy includes a range of comm...
How the Company Makes Money
KREF makes money primarily through net interest income generated on its investment portfolio. It originates or acquires commercial real estate loans (typically senior, floating-rate mortgages) and earns interest based on the contractual coupon/spr...
Kkr Real Estate Finance Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 21, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a mixed but constructive tone: management reported meaningful operational progress on portfolio repositioning (liquidity generation from repayments, life science modifications, rising new-vintage exposure, targeted asset monetizations and accretive buybacks) while also acknowledging significant near-term headwinds (a GAAP loss, distributable loss, a 13.7% quarter book value decline, material watch list and REO balances, elevated leverage and several credit downgrades). Management believes the most significant book value impact is behind them and outlined clear targets and liquidity to execute the plan, but substantial execution risk and near-term uncertainty remain (including an active strategic review).Positive Updates
Liquidity and Financing Availability
KREF had over $700 million of liquidity at quarter end, including $83 million cash and $350 million undrawn revolver; total financing availability of $7 billion with $2.6 billion undrawn capacity and 79% of financing non-mark-to-market.
Negative Updates
GAAP and Distributable Losses
Reported a GAAP loss of $122 million (negative $1.95 per share) and a distributable loss of $36 million (negative $0.58 per share) for the second quarter of 2026.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Liquidity and Financing Availability
KREF had over $700 million of liquidity at quarter end, including $83 million cash and $350 million undrawn revolver; total financing availability of $7 billion with $2.6 billion undrawn capacity and 79% of financing non-mark-to-market.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided that annual distributable earnings before realized losses should cover a $0.40 per-share dividend as it executes its repositioning plan, noting distributable earnings before realized losses of $0.10 per share this quarter (covering the $0.10 quarterly dividend) and a distributable loss of $36 million (‑$0.58/share); GAAP loss was $122 million (‑$1.95/share) and book value was $10.24/share after a 13.7% quarterly decline. Management expects earnings to trough later this year and to remain near current levels for several quarters before portfolio benefits emerge, and continues to forecast more than $2.0 billion of repayments in 2026 (about $1.2 billion YTD and >$800 million in the quarter) that should help move total leverage (4.3x now, debt/equity 2.6x) back toward the 3.5–4.0x target. Liquidity and funding guidance: over $700 million of liquidity (including $83 million cash and $350 million undrawn on the corporate revolver), $7.0 billion total financing availability with $2.6 billion undrawn and 79% of financing non‑mark‑to‑market. Portfolio/asset targets and progress: legacy office down to 18% of the portfolio (from 21% YE‑2025) with a goal <10% by YE‑2026; watch list 16% (nearly half being marketed) targeted for complete reduction by year‑end; Life Science modifications up to ~39% (from ~19% YE) with most expected to be resolved by year‑end; new vintages (2024–2026) now ~32% of the portfolio (vs. 19% YE‑2025), targeting >50% by year‑end; REO stands at $658 million with select monetizations (e.g., Mountain View expected to market within ~1 year). Share repurchase activity noted $38 million bought at a $6.63 average (≈$0.32/share BV accretion) plus $10 million at $7.24; future buybacks will be considered alongside the Board’s strategic review.Kkr Real Estate Finance Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
41
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 414.18M | 457.96M | 592.62M | 660.19M | 436.51M | 285.76M |
| Gross Profit | 354.41M | 404.40M | 543.02M | 620.34M | 399.08M | 256.11M |
| EBITDA | 110.03M | 274.92M | 448.47M | 427.86M | 273.75M | 252.31M |
| Net Income | -184.96M | -47.05M | 35.59M | -30.85M | 38.10M | 137.18M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.56B | 6.46B | 6.35B | 7.55B | 7.80B | 6.70B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 83.06M | 84.62M | 104.93M | 135.90M | 239.79M | 271.49M |
| Total Debt | 4.31B | 4.69B | 4.90B | 6.06B | 6.16B | 5.29B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.57B | 5.24B | 4.95B | 6.14B | 6.23B | 5.34B |
| Stockholders Equity | 931.77M | 1.17B | 1.35B | 1.40B | 1.57B | 1.36B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 59.32M | 66.70M | 124.46M | 153.85M | 139.46M | 124.79M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 63.00M | 72.28M | 132.56M | 155.72M | 141.13M | 124.79M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 667.51M | 264.29M | 1.12B | 13.49M | -1.18B | -1.54B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -333.31M | -355.78M | -1.29B | -271.51M | 1.01B | 1.58B |
Kkr Real Estate Finance Technical Analysis
Positive
7.34
Price Trends
7.06
Positive
6.65
Positive
7.05
Positive
Market Momentum
0.03
Positive
51.23
Neutral
44.61
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KREF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.34 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.30, above the 50-day MA of 7.06, and above the 200-day MA of 7.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KREF.
Kkr Real Estate Finance Risk Analysis
Kkr Real Estate Finance disclosed 86 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kkr Real Estate Finance reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Kkr Real Estate Finance Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
60 Neutral | $611.85M | 14.43 | 5.45% | 11.14% | 3.78% | -15.19% | |
55 Neutral | $630.31M | 16.80 | 4.45% | 14.21% | 11.14% | -54.56% | |
51 Neutral | $410.72M | -2.12 | -16.70% | 11.58% | -19.57% | -397.76% | |
46 Neutral | $574.02M | -214.55 | 0.59% | 14.63% | -8.93% | 93.51% | |
44 Neutral | $236.26M | -0.45 | -31.42% | 10.54% | -56.96% | -78.75% | |
43 Neutral | $249.72M | -0.46 | -35.83% | ― | 79.83% | -27.98% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
KREF
Kkr Real Estate Finance
7.22
-0.94
-11.50%
RWT
Redwood
4.57
-0.38
-7.58%
RC
Ready Capital
1.54
-2.48
-61.71%
TRTX
Tpg Re Finance
7.94
0.05
0.68%
FBRT
Franklin BSP Realty Trust
7.55
-2.09
-21.69%
CMTG
Claros Mortgage Trust
1.70
-1.16
-40.56%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.