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Tpg Re Finance
(NYSE:TRTX)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
â–¼(-22.18% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/07/26
The score is anchored by mixed fundamentals: solid profitability and cash conversion are outweighed by heavy leverage and ongoing revenue contraction. Technicals are a major detractor with a clear downtrend and very weak momentum. Valuation provides support via a moderate P/E and high dividend yield, while the latest earnings call and the new CLO financing add a constructive—but secondary—tailwind through improved liquidity/funding and stable credit metrics.
Positive Factors
Portfolio Credit Quality
The fully performing loan portfolio and unchanged risk rating indicate stable current credit performance, while the CECL reserve provides a stated loss allowance. Sustained asset quality can protect recurring interest income and reduce the likelihood that credit losses erode distributable earnings over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Debt substantially exceeds equity, leaving TRTX sensitive to asset values, funding conditions, and portfolio credit performance. This heavily debt-funded structure limits financial flexibility and could constrain growth or capital allocation if financing costs rise or collateral performance weakens.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Portfolio Credit Quality
The fully performing loan portfolio and unchanged risk rating indicate stable current credit performance, while the CECL reserve provides a stated loss allowance. Sustained asset quality can protect recurring interest income and reduce the likelihood that credit losses erode distributable earnings over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Tpg Re Finance (TRTX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$450.63M
Dividend Yield16.35%
Average Volume (3M)1.02M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.6
Beta (1Y)0.44
Revenue Growth3.78%
EPS Growth-15.19%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.55
Shares Outstanding76,769,010
10 Day Avg. Volume1,314,134
30 Day Avg. Volume1,017,835
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.63
Price to Book (P/B)0.64
Price to Sales (P/S)2.05
P/FCF Ratio8.11
Enterprise Value/Market Cap9.08
Enterprise Value/Revenue12.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.52
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.42
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.56Price Target Upside24.03% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$148.55M
Tpg Re Finance Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (TRTX) operates as a financial institution primarily engaged in the commercial real estate sector within the United States. Its core business involves generating, purchasing, and actively overseeing a variety of debt ins...
How the Company Makes Money
TRTX primarily makes money by earning interest income and fee income from its commercial real estate debt investments. Its core revenue stream is net interest income: the interest collected on its loan portfolio (typically floating-rate first mort...
Tpg Re Finance Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple strategic and financial strengths: portfolio growth (15% YoY net asset growth), strong liquidity and diversified, longer-dated funding (85.2% non-mark-to-market, weighted avg cost 1.83%), stable credit metrics (100% performing, CECL 179 bps), and a meaningful reduction in office exposure to 4.3%. At the same time, management noted near-term headwinds from elevated rates, transaction timing variability (concentrated closings and repayments), and fees from the capital markets activity that caused some quarter-level drag. Overall, the positive portfolio and balance-sheet developments and the clear path for further deployment and monetization outweigh the timing and market challenges discussed on the call.Positive Updates
Strong Origination and Portfolio Growth
Closed $466 million of new loan investments in Q2 and an additional $72 million subsequent to quarter end; $1.7 billion of new loan investments closed over the past year, driving $551.4 million (15%) net asset growth year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Market Headwinds and Rate Volatility
Elevated interest rates and ongoing rate volatility continue to suppress transaction activity and widen the gap between buyer and seller expectations, restricting lending demand primarily to refinancing opportunities.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Origination and Portfolio Growth
Closed $466 million of new loan investments in Q2 and an additional $72 million subsequent to quarter end; $1.7 billion of new loan investments closed over the past year, driving $551.4 million (15%) net asset growth year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance focused on disciplined, prudential growth and balance‑sheet strength: they reiterated a target leverage zone of 3.5x–3.75x (current total leverage 3.32x), cited ~$380M of executed term sheets as near‑term deployment visibility, and said they expect to monetize/recycle part of the REO portfolio this year (may do 1–2 selective office deals by year‑end); share repurchases remain an active tool with $9.3M authorization remaining. Liquidity and funding metrics supporting that guidance include near‑term liquidity of $488.2M (cash $65.6M; undrawn secured capacity $317.4M; $100M revolver; CRE CLO reinvestment $5.2M), $186M of unencumbered loans eligible to pledge, $1.8B total financing capacity, a liability mix 85.2% non‑mark‑to‑market across 11 sources, weighted average cost of funds 1.83%, and new corporate/secured financings including a $400M 7‑year TLB at 99.75/2.75% spread and a $100M revolver at 2.00% spread. Portfolio/earnings metrics cited: Q2 originations $466M (3 loans) at 2.79% weighted credit spread (+$72M post‑quarter; $1.7B over past year), net assets $4.3B (Q/Q +$190.4M, YoY +$551.4M), loan portfolio 100% performing, weighted risk rating 3.0, CECL reserve 179 bps ($80.7M), 76.4% multifamily/industrial and office 4.3%, and year‑to‑date distributable earnings $37.1M ($0.48/share) covering the $0.48 dividend.Tpg Re Finance Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 340.84M | 332.57M | 350.93M | 390.17M | 305.71M | 240.72M |
| Gross Profit | 281.85M | 263.75M | 281.81M | 356.85M | 275.10M | 217.59M |
| EBITDA | 265.38M | 262.38M | 291.92M | 162.39M | 116.23M | 224.70M |
| Net Income | 58.04M | 60.32M | 74.33M | -116.63M | -60.07M | 138.55M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.60B | 4.41B | 3.73B | 4.21B | 5.55B | 5.22B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 65.58M | 88.27M | 190.16M | 206.38M | 254.05M | 260.63M |
| Total Debt | 3.51B | 3.29B | 2.57B | 3.04B | 4.16B | 3.71B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.55B | 3.34B | 2.62B | 3.09B | 4.22B | 3.75B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.04B | 1.07B | 1.11B | 1.12B | 1.32B | 1.46B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 82.89M | 84.22M | 106.81M | 74.76M | 95.44M | 132.17M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 92.64M | 90.36M | 112.13M | 80.13M | 100.50M | 132.17M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -552.64M | -789.71M | 440.51M | 1.10B | -452.56M | -342.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 359.79M | 597.13M | -569.18M | -1.22B | 345.34M | 152.10M |
Tpg Re Finance Technical Analysis
Negative
7.71
Price Trends
7.12
Negative
7.58
Negative
7.69
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.37
Positive
15.26
Positive
15.17
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TRTX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.48, above the 50-day MA of 7.12, and above the 200-day MA of 7.69, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.37 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 15.26 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.17 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TRTX.
Tpg Re Finance Risk Analysis
Tpg Re Finance disclosed 124 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tpg Re Finance reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Tpg Re Finance Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
55 Neutral | $450.63M | 10.63 | 5.45% | 16.35% | 3.78% | -15.19% | |
55 Neutral | $514.05M | 13.70 | 4.45% | 15.43% | 11.14% | -54.56% | |
51 Neutral | $352.30M | -1.82 | -16.70% | 11.73% | -19.57% | -397.76% | |
51 Neutral | $482.06M | -16.41 | -2.91% | 16.80% | -0.14% | -10.71% | |
48 Neutral | $196.96M | -47.14 | -0.88% | 16.90% | 28.95% | 76.08% | |
42 Neutral | $169.30M | -0.31 | -35.83% | 11.35% | 79.83% | -27.98% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
TRTX
Tpg Re Finance
5.87
-1.73
-22.73%
ACRE
Ares Commercial
3.55
-0.35
-9.07%
KREF
Kkr Real Estate Finance
5.97
-1.80
-23.14%
BRSP
BrightSpire Capital
3.81
-0.80
-17.41%
FBRT
Franklin BSP Realty Trust
6.19
-3.34
-35.02%
CMTG
Claros Mortgage Trust
1.20
-2.09
-63.53%
Tpg Re Finance Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
TPG RE Finance Launches New $1 Billion CRE CLO
Positive
Oct 6, 2026
On October 2, 2026, TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc., through its TRTX 2026-FL8 CLO vehicle, issued multiple classes of floating-rate notes and preferred shares backed by approximately $1 billion of commercial real estate whole loans and participation i...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.