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Ellington Financial
(NYSE:EFC)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$14.50
▲(6.77% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is held back primarily by financial risk factors—very high leverage and currently negative operating/free cash flow—despite an earnings rebound. Offsetting this, technicals are supportive (uptrend with positive momentum), valuation is attractive (low P/E and high yield), and the latest earnings call was constructive with reiterated dividend coverage and positive operating/funding trends.
Positive Factors
Earnings and Dividend Coverage
Sustained distributable earnings above the dividend supports recurring shareholder distributions and provides some capacity to retain capital, grow book value, and absorb portfolio volatility without relying solely on asset sales or new equity.
Negative Factors
Very High Leverage
Heavy leverage leaves the mortgage REIT highly sensitive to funding costs, collateral values, margin requirements, and credit-spread movements. Even non-recourse securitization debt can amplify asset-value and balance-sheet volatility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Earnings and Dividend Coverage
Sustained distributable earnings above the dividend supports recurring shareholder distributions and provides some capacity to retain capital, grow book value, and absorb portfolio volatility without relying solely on asset sales or new equity.
Read all positive factors
Ellington Financial (EFC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.74B
Dividend Yield11.58%
Average Volume (3M)1.09M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.2
Beta (1Y)0.47
Revenue Growth30.22%
EPS Growth35.19%
CountryUS
Employees500
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.64
Shares Outstanding128,887,390
10 Day Avg. Volume996,966
30 Day Avg. Volume1,092,020
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.91
Price to Book (P/B)0.74
Price to Sales (P/S)2.00
P/FCF Ratio2.65
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.88Price Target Upside9.54% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)2.07
Revenue Forecast (FY)$497.64M
Ellington Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ellington Financial Inc., operating through its subsidiary, Ellington Financial Operating Partnership LLC, is an investment company primarily focused on acquiring and actively managing a broad range of financial assets within the United States. It...
How the Company Makes Money
Ellington Financial primarily makes money from the spread between the yield it earns on its investment assets and the cost of the financing used to hold those assets, along with gains (or losses) from changes in asset values and the performance of...
Ellington Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple substantial positives: strong GAAP and ADE results with ADE notably above the dividend, robust growth and record volumes at Longbridge (38% YoY origination growth), excellent long-term credit performance (very low cumulative realized losses), healthy net interest margins (336 bps), extended repo term and improved funding durability, and a growing, high-throughput loan sourcing portal. Headwinds were present but manageable: higher interest rates create origination pressure (partially offset by hedges), some unrealized mark-to-market losses in corporate other, modestly higher overall leverage tied to securitizations, and rising delinquencies as portfolios scale that the company is addressing via a servicer acquisition and expanded special servicing capability. On balance the positives significantly outweighed the negatives.Positive Updates
Strong Earnings and Returns
GAAP net income of $0.43 per share and adjusted distributable earnings (ADE) of $0.60 per share in Q2 2026; ADE exceeded the $0.39 quarterly dividend by ~54%. Reported annualized economic return of 13.6% for the quarter.
Negative Updates
Unrealized Losses in Corporate Other
Recognized unrealized losses in corporate other driven by fair-value accounting of unsecured notes and fixed receiver interest rate swaps; higher interest rates contributed to unrealized losses on swaps used to hedge fixed payments on unsecured notes.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Earnings and Returns
GAAP net income of $0.43 per share and adjusted distributable earnings (ADE) of $0.60 per share in Q2 2026; ADE exceeded the $0.39 quarterly dividend by ~54%. Reported annualized economic return of 13.6% for the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated that Q2 results support continued upside, reporting GAAP net income of $0.43 per share, adjusted distributable earnings (ADE) of $0.60 per share, an annualized economic return of 13.6%, and book value per share rising $0.05 to $13.61 after $0.39 in quarterly dividends (a $0.13 monthly dividend); management said ADE comfortably outpaced the dividend, has covered the payout for eight consecutive quarters, and they’re “comfortable guiding into the high‑40s” on an ADE run‑rate while retaining the current $0.13 monthly payout to build book value. Operational and financing guidance included securitizing roughly $2.0B of loans in Q2 and ~$4.0B UPB in H1, a loan portal buying >$15M/day (~$4B annualized), Longbridge originations of ~$590M (up 38% YoY) with Q2 submissions of $870M (vs < $750M in Q1), very low lifetime realized credit losses (17 bps on ~$20.4B residential fundings; 39 bps on ~$2.5B commercial bridge fundings), a recourse borrowing cost of 5.5%, a net interest margin of 336 bps, repo term extended to 9.3 months, recourse debt/equity of 1.9x and overall debt/equity of 9.2x, and a stated intent to opportunistically issue unsecured debt (notes trading in the low 7s) and preferred equity as market conditions allow.Ellington Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 674.13M | 674.54M | 282.19M | 256.50M | 43.15M | 216.80M |
| Gross Profit | 563.91M | 568.37M | 282.19M | 256.50M | 43.15M | 174.46M |
| EBITDA | 588.30M | 459.09M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.67M | 193.02M |
| Net Income | 222.15M | 146.87M | 145.86M | 84.08M | -70.05M | 133.46M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 21.03B | 19.35B | 16.32B | 15.32B | 14.09B | 5.18B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 247.47M | 201.89M | 192.39M | 230.54M | 221.87M | 92.84M |
| Total Debt | 18.49B | 16.96B | 14.20B | 13.33B | 12.40B | 3.64B |
| Total Liabilities | 19.03B | 17.48B | 14.73B | 13.78B | 12.87B | 3.85B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.97B | 1.83B | 1.57B | 1.52B | 1.20B | 1.29B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -327.28M | 509.04M | -430.53M | -241.86M | 3.58M | 224.13M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -327.11M | 509.04M | -430.53M | -241.86M | 42.69M | 51.29M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -7.39B | -5.47B | -728.26M | 174.91M | -1.75B | -2.03B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 7.77B | 5.09B | 1.14B | 75.63M | 1.84B | 1.95B |
Ellington Financial Technical Analysis
Positive
13.58
Price Trends
13.32
Positive
13.11
Positive
12.58
Positive
Market Momentum
0.02
Positive
54.91
Neutral
34.75
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EFC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.58 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.44, above the 50-day MA of 13.32, and above the 200-day MA of 12.58, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EFC.
Ellington Financial Risk Analysis
Ellington Financial disclosed 121 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ellington Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ellington Financial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
62 Neutral | $1.74B | 8.21 | 11.87% | 11.58% | 30.22% | 35.19% | |
60 Neutral | $1.31B | 4.43 | 18.50% | 20.46% | 89.39% | 661.99% | |
57 Neutral | $1.25B | 23.36 | 3.57% | 9.36% | -5.22% | -40.61% | |
55 Neutral | $840.63M | 6.69 | 8.88% | 16.60% | 21.86% | 97.23% | |
52 Neutral | $882.10M | 8.71 | 7.78% | 42.13% | -63.13% | ― | |
49 Neutral | $974.41M | -15.56 | 0.05% | 14.09% | 14.40% | -178.46% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
EFC
Ellington Financial
13.47
1.30
10.66%
ARI
Apollo Real Estate
6.88
0.31
4.69%
CIM
Chimera Investment
11.64
-1.26
-9.74%
PMT
PennyMac Mortgage
9.64
-1.24
-11.39%
LADR
Ladder Capital
9.83
-0.94
-8.76%
ORC
Orchid Island Capital
6.55
0.57
9.55%
Ellington Financial Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Ellington Financial Declares Monthly Dividend, Emphasizing Income Focus
Positive
Aug 10, 2026
On August 10, 2026, Ellington Financial Inc. announced that its Board of Directors declared a monthly dividend of $0.13 per share on its common stock, reflecting its continued capital return policy to shareholders. The dividend is scheduled to be ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ellington Financial Posts Strong Q2 Earnings and Growth
Positive
Aug 7, 2026
For the quarter ended June 30, 2026, Ellington Financial reported net income attributable to common stockholders of $54.4 million, or $0.43 per share, and adjusted distributable earnings of $75.5 million, or $0.60 per share, as book value per shar...
Dividends
Ellington Financial Announces Monthly Common Stock Dividend
Positive
Jul 8, 2026
Ellington Financial Inc., based in Old Greenwich, Conn., is a specialty finance company that invests in a broad range of financial assets, including residential and commercial mortgage loans, mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities, reverse mo...
Dividends
Ellington Financial Declares Monthly Dividend, Affirms Capital Returns
Positive
Jun 8, 2026
On June 8, 2026, Ellington Financial Inc. announced that its board had declared a monthly dividend of $0.13 per share on its common stock, payable on July 31, 2026 to shareholders of record as of June 30, 2026. The move continues the firm’s ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Ellington Financial Shareholders Approve 2026 Equity Incentive Plan
Positive
May 29, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 28, 2026, Ellington Financial Inc. secured shareholder approval for its 2026 Equity Incentive Plan, reinforcing the company’s use of stock-based awards to motivate executives and employe...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.