Ellington Financial LLC (EFC)
NYSE:EFC
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Ellington Financial
(NYSE:EFC)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$14.50
▲(11.88% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/30/26
The score reflects a mix of attractive valuation/income (low P/E and ~11.5% yield) and a strong, guidance-supportive earnings update, tempered by elevated balance-sheet risk (very high leverage) and unstable cash flow that increases sensitivity to funding and market moves.
Positive Factors
ADE and earnings exceed dividend
Consistent ADE materially above the dividend run rate indicates internal cash-generating capacity to support distributions. Sustained excess distributable earnings reduce reliance on external capital for dividends and signal durable earnings power from core credit and mortgage strategies.
Negative Factors
Very high overall leverage
An aggressive capital structure with ~9x debt-to-equity materially heightens sensitivity to funding markets, repo terming, and mark‑to‑market swings. High leverage limits financial flexibility, amplifies earnings volatility, and raises refinancing and covenant risks during stress.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
ADE and earnings exceed dividend
Consistent ADE materially above the dividend run rate indicates internal cash-generating capacity to support distributions. Sustained excess distributable earnings reduce reliance on external capital for dividends and signal durable earnings power from core credit and mortgage strategies.
Read all positive factors
Ellington Financial (EFC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.71B
Dividend Yield11.37%
Average Volume (3M)1.26M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.6
Beta (1Y)0.50
Revenue Growth33.43%
EPS Growth19.55%
CountryUS
Employees400
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.66
Shares Outstanding125,393,620
10 Day Avg. Volume1,065,331
30 Day Avg. Volume1,264,785
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.74
Price to Book (P/B)0.74
Price to Sales (P/S)2.00
P/FCF Ratio2.65
Enterprise Value/Market Cap11.07
Enterprise Value/Revenue32.24
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit37.05
Enterprise Value/Ebitda43.73
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.88Price Target Upside14.78% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.91
Revenue Forecast (FY)$465.07M
Ellington Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ellington Financial Inc., through its subsidiary, Ellington Financial Operating Partnership LLC, acquires and manages mortgage-related, consumer-related, corporate-related, and other financial assets in the United States. The company acquires and ...
How the Company Makes Money
EFC primarily makes money through net interest income and investment gains generated from a leveraged portfolio of credit assets. The core model is to (1) acquire or originate interest-earning assets—such as mortgage loans, mortgage-backed securit...
Ellington Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted a very strong quarter with exceptional earnings, robust securitization activity, notable origination growth (especially at Longbridge), improved funding costs, and rising book value. Several one‑time and segment‑specific tailwinds (Longbridge outsized contribution, a $17 million settlement, and record securitization economics) amplified results. Offsetting concerns include March spread volatility, potential future mark‑to‑market reversals (April remarking estimated at -$0.13 per share), selective credit and residential REO losses, non‑QM prepayment sensitivity, and continued leverage/funding considerations. On balance, the positives and durable operational improvements materially outweigh the manageable headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong GAAP Net Income and ADE
Reported GAAP net income of $0.78 per common share for Q1 2026 and Adjusted Distributable Earnings (ADE) of $0.55 per share, with ADE substantially exceeding the dividend run rate of $0.39 per share.
Negative Updates
March Market Volatility and Credit Spread Widening
Rising market volatility and widening credit spreads in March introduced mark‑to‑market noise and contributed to earnings volatility; management noted this environment could produce month‑to‑month book value variability.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong GAAP Net Income and ADE
Reported GAAP net income of $0.78 per common share for Q1 2026 and Adjusted Distributable Earnings (ADE) of $0.55 per share, with ADE substantially exceeding the dividend run rate of $0.39 per share.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised quarterly ADE guidance to the "around $0.45" per share area, which remains above the current dividend run rate of $0.39; that guidance follows a strong Q1 (GAAP net income $0.78/sh, ADE $0.55/sh, book value per share $13.56, +3% from $13.16, and a 26% annualized economic return). Key operating and balance-sheet metrics supporting the guidance include portfolio growth of ~4% (total assets >$5.0B; adjusted long credit portfolio $4.27B), seven securitizations totaling >$2.8B (Q1 average non‑QM deal $508M vs. $205M in Q1 2025), Longbridge origination $515M (+52% YoY) and a Longbridge portfolio of $695M (+13%), short‑duration loans returned $224M (15% of beginning fair value), recourse borrowings weighted avg rate 5.49% (‑18 bps), recourse D/E 1.9x and total D/E 9x (unchanged), unencumbered assets ~$1.9B (+8%), a $117M common equity raise used to redeem Series A preferred (coupon >9%), and an estimated ~$0.13 per share April mark on liabilities that could offset some April portfolio gains.Ellington Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
73
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
29
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 585.47M | 674.54M | 282.19M | 256.50M | 43.15M | 216.80M |
| Gross Profit | 509.43M | 568.37M | 282.19M | 256.50M | 43.15M | 174.46M |
| EBITDA | 431.67M | 459.09M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 193.02M |
| Net Income | 213.50M | 146.87M | 145.86M | 84.08M | -70.05M | 133.46M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 20.23B | 19.35B | 16.32B | 15.32B | 14.09B | 5.18B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 163.22M | 201.89M | 192.39M | 230.54M | 221.87M | 92.84M |
| Total Debt | 17.69B | 16.96B | 0.00 | 13.33B | 12.40B | 3.64B |
| Total Liabilities | 18.28B | 17.48B | 14.73B | 13.78B | 12.87B | 3.85B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.92B | 1.83B | 1.57B | 1.52B | 1.20B | 1.29B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -652.14M | 509.04M | -430.53M | -241.86M | 3.58M | 224.13M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -651.98M | 509.04M | -430.53M | -241.86M | 42.69M | 51.29M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.48B | -5.47B | -728.26M | 174.91M | -1.75B | -2.03B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 6.11B | 5.09B | 1.14B | 75.63M | 1.84B | 1.95B |
Ellington Financial Technical Analysis
Positive
12.96
Price Trends
12.75
Positive
12.50
Positive
12.54
Positive
Market Momentum
0.18
Positive
55.07
Neutral
39.39
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EFC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.96 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.39, above the 50-day MA of 12.75, and above the 200-day MA of 12.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EFC.
Ellington Financial Risk Analysis
Ellington Financial disclosed 121 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ellington Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ellington Financial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $1.71B | 7.62 | 11.88% | 11.37% | 33.43% | 19.55% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
63 Neutral | $1.44B | 11.93 | 6.88% | 9.89% | 3.09% | ― | |
54 Neutral | $909.52M | 6.11 | 7.62% | 12.69% | 23.64% | 24.40% | |
54 Neutral | $1.35B | 10.24 | 10.24% | 20.03% | 81.33% | 86.84% | |
51 Neutral | $1.13B | 56.98 | 0.75% | 11.40% | 10.27% | -151.66% | |
50 Neutral | $1.30B | 22.79 | 3.71% | 8.21% | -12.74% | -46.71% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
EFC
Ellington Financial
13.36
2.26
20.39%
ARI
Apollo Real Estate
10.89
2.01
22.59%
CIM
Chimera Investment
13.14
1.33
11.23%
PMT
PennyMac Mortgage
10.02
-0.79
-7.30%
LADR
Ladder Capital
10.00
0.42
4.41%
ORC
Orchid Island Capital
6.60
0.89
15.61%
Ellington Financial Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Ellington Financial Shareholders Approve 2026 Equity Incentive Plan
Positive
May 29, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 28, 2026, Ellington Financial Inc. secured shareholder approval for its 2026 Equity Incentive Plan, reinforcing the company’s use of stock-based awards to motivate executives and employe...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Ellington Financial Declares Monthly Dividend, Emphasizing Income Strategy
Positive
May 11, 2026
On May 7, 2026, Ellington Financial Inc. announced that its board declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.13 per share on its common stock, payable on June 30, 2026 to shareholders of record as of May 29, 2026. The move underscores the company̵...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Ellington Financial Posts Strong Q1 2026 Earnings, Expands Securitizations
Positive
May 5, 2026
Ellington Financial reported strong first-quarter 2026 results, with net income attributable to common stockholders of $95.5 million, or $0.78 per share, driven largely by its credit strategy and a $57.5 million contribution from its Longbridge re...
Dividends
Ellington Financial Declares Monthly Common Stock Dividend
Positive
Apr 7, 2026
On April 7, 2026, Ellington Financial Inc. announced that its board declared a monthly common stock dividend of $0.13 per share, underscoring the company’s continued emphasis on distributing regular income to shareholders. The dividend will ...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Ellington Financial Declares Monthly Common and Preferred Dividends
Positive
Mar 9, 2026
On March 9, 2026, Ellington Financial Inc. announced that its board declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.13 per share on its common stock, payable on April 30, 2026 to shareholders of record as of March 31, 2026. The board also declared quarterl...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.