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Orchid Island Capital (ORC)
NYSE:ORC
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Orchid Island Capital
(NYSE:ORC)
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:―
Orchid Island Capital (ORC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$750.98M
Dividend Yield20.45%
Average Volume (3M)3.56M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.5
Beta (1Y)1.05
Revenue Growth61.59%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength72
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.16
Shares Outstanding106,673,390
10 Day Avg. Volume3,370,442
30 Day Avg. Volume3,562,181
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.90
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio1.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.75
Enterprise Value/Revenue11.48
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit24.20
Enterprise Value/Ebitda23.98
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
Orchid Island Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionOrchid Island Capital, Inc., a specialty finance company, invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) in the United States. The company's RMBS is backed by single-family residential mortgage loans, referred as Agency RMBS. Its portfolio includes traditional pass-through Agency RMBS, such as mortgage pass through certificates and collateralized mortgage obligations; and structured Agency RMBS comprising interest only securities, inverse interest only securities, and principal only securities. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. Orchid Island Capital, Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Vero Beach, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyOrchid Island Capital makes money primarily through the spread between the interest income generated from its portfolio of mortgage-backed securities and the cost of borrowing funds to finance these investments. The company invests in Agency RMBS, which are considered relatively low-risk due to the government guarantee on the underlying mortgage loans. Orchid Island Capital typically employs leverage to amplify returns, borrowing funds at a lower interest rate and investing in higher-yielding mortgage securities. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as changes in interest rates, prepayment speeds of the underlying mortgages, and the overall market conditions for mortgage securities. Revenue is also affected by the management of interest rate risk and the strategic allocation of its investment portfolio.
Orchid Island Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 24, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 5.07%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook with notable improvements in earnings per share, total return, and portfolio growth. However, these were tempered by challenges such as decreased book value, increased leverage, and significant market volatility. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and potential impacts of the Rocket Mortgage and Nationstar merger also contribute to a cautious outlook.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increase in Earnings Per Share
Earnings per share increased from $0.07 in Q4 to $0.18 in Q1.
Total Return Improvement
Total return for Q1 was 2.6% unannualized, up from 0.6% in Q4.
Portfolio Growth
The average portfolio size increased to just under $6 billion in Q1 from $5.3 billion in Q4.
Dividend Consistency
Dividends of $0.36 per share were declared and paid for Q1, maintaining the same level as Q4.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Book Value
Book value decreased from $8.09 at 12/31 to $7.94 at 3/31.
Leveraged Position
Leverage ratio increased from 7.3 at 12/31 to 7.8 at 3/31.
Market Volatility Challenges
The market experienced significant volatility due to tariffs and their potential impact on the economy, leading to an uncertain outlook.
Swap Spread Volatility
Swap spreads moved dramatically and became quite volatile, posing challenges to hedging strategies.
Potential Impact of Rocket Mortgage and Nationstar Merger
The merger could affect prepayment speeds and the convexity of the mortgage universe, impacting portfolio performance.
Company Guidance
During Orchid Island Capital's Q1 2025 earnings call, several key financial metrics were discussed, reflecting the company's performance and strategic maneuvers. Earnings per share increased to $0.18 from $0.07 in Q4 2024, while the book value per share decreased to $7.94 from $8.09 at the end of the previous quarter. The total return for Q1 was 2.6%, a significant improvement from the 0.6% in Q4. Dividends remained consistent at $0.36 per share each quarter. The average portfolio size grew to just under $6 billion, compared to $5.3 billion in Q4, with a leverage ratio rising to 7.8 from 7.3. Prepayment speeds decreased to 7.8% from 10.5%, and liquidity slightly dipped to 52.2% from 52.9%. Additionally, the company raised $206 million through stock sales, slightly accretive to shareholders, and later repurchased 1.1 million shares at an average price of $6.44, which was accretive to shareholders’ equity.Orchid Island Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Orchid Island Capital's financials depict a company with significant revenue and profitability fluctuations. While the balance sheet is strong with no debt, the revenue volatility and inconsistent cash flows indicate challenges in financial stability, impacting the company's ability to deliver consistent income.Income Statement
Orchid Island Capital has experienced significant volatility in its revenue over the years, with substantial losses in several periods. The most recent annual data shows zero revenue, making it difficult to assess profitability metrics like gross profit margin or net profit margin. The revenue growth rate has been highly unstable, indicating financial challenges in maintaining consistent income streams.30
Negative
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet shows a stable equity position with stockholders' equity growing over time. The equity ratio indicates moderate reliance on own capital versus liabilities. The debt-to-equity ratio is favorable, reflecting no debt as of the latest period, which reduces financial risk. However, the fluctuating total assets and liabilities suggest potential volatility in financial structure.65
Positive
Cash Flow
Orchid Island Capital's cash flow statement reveals a mixed picture. The operating cash flow has shown improvement, but the free cash flow remains inconsistent. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating some efficiency in converting net income to cash. However, the free cash flow growth has been erratic, reflecting challenges in sustaining positive cash flows.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| -2.17M | 54.41M | -20.70M | -241.00M | -49.89M | 12.67M | Gross Profit |
| 147.37M | 54.41M | -23.80M | -243.88M | -52.62M | 10.10M | EBIT |
| 15.57M | 53.06M | 0.00 | -258.45M | -64.76M | 2.13M | EBITDA |
| 9.94M | 273.94M | 0.00 | 0.00 | -57.67M | 2.13M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 35.01M | 37.66M | -39.23M | -258.45M | -64.76M | 2.13M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 521.93M | 409.88M | 178.31M | 205.65M | 435.93M | 220.14M | Total Assets |
| 7.30B | 5.72B | 4.26B | 3.87B | 7.07B | 4.06B | Total Debt |
| 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.71B | 3.38B | 6.24B | 3.60B | Net Debt |
| -396.39M | -309.33M | 3.51B | -205.65M | 5.86B | 3.38B | Total Liabilities |
| 6.45B | 5.05B | 3.80B | 3.43B | 6.30B | 3.64B | Stockholders Equity |
| 855.88M | 668.50M | 469.94M | 438.76M | 768.10M | 415.29M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 47.76M | 66.99M | 8.00M | 289.37M | 96.44M | 55.37M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 47.76M | 66.99M | 8.00M | 289.37M | 96.44M | 55.37M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -2.90B | -1.42B | -441.06M | 2.44B | -3.02B | -199.34M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 3.05B | 1.48B | 396.13M | -2.94B | 3.07B | 164.82M |
Orchid Island Capital Technical Analysis
Positive
7.04
Price Trends
6.82
Positive
7.27
Negative
7.19
Negative
Market Momentum
0.03
Negative
54.31
Neutral
40.08
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ORC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.95, above the 50-day MA of 6.82, and below the 200-day MA of 7.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ORC.
Orchid Island Capital Risk Analysis
Orchid Island Capital disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Orchid Island Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Orchid Island Capital Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $631.67M | 11.36 | 6.22% | 12.14% | -13.64% | ― | |
64 Neutral | $603.19M | ― | 2.63% | 11.98% | 33.94% | 96.99% | |
63 Neutral | $6.89B | 19.01 | -1.05% | 7.24% | 4.74% | -22.06% | |
61 Neutral | $750.98M | 17.48 | 5.23% | 20.45% | 61.59% | ― | |
54 Neutral | $627.75M | 57.33 | 2.42% | 10.83% | -16.46% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $501.82M | 18.28 | 6.55% | 17.87% | 137.36% | ― | |
48 Neutral | $748.12M | 26.50 | 2.92% | 12.81% | 6.72% | 228.13% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
ORC
Orchid Island Capital
7.04
-0.02
-0.28%
IVR
Invesco Mortgage
7.61
-0.11
-1.42%
RWT
Redwood
5.62
-0.29
-4.91%
NYMT
New York Mortgage
6.68
1.22
22.34%
KREF
Kkr Real Estate Finance
9.23
0.66
7.70%
TRTX
Tpg Re Finance
7.91
0.11
1.41%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.