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Annaly Capital
(NYSE:NLY)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$18.50
▼(-19.91% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/21/26
The score is held back primarily by elevated balance-sheet leverage and weakening/negative free cash flow, alongside bearish technical momentum. Offsetting factors include strong recent profitability and a very high dividend yield, with the latest earnings call supporting near-term dividend coverage despite notable book value pressure.
Positive Factors
Dividend Coverage
Earnings exceeding the dividend indicates that the current portfolio is generating recurring distributable income with some coverage cushion. Sustained coverage supports dividend durability and gives management greater flexibility to reinvest capital while navigating changes in rates and mortgage spreads.
Negative Factors
High Balance-Sheet Leverage
The large debt burden relative to equity makes earnings and capital more sensitive to funding costs, asset valuations, and collateral requirements. Although leverage amplifies returns when spreads are favorable, it also reduces financial flexibility and can magnify losses during adverse mortgage-market conditions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Dividend Coverage
Earnings exceeding the dividend indicates that the current portfolio is generating recurring distributable income with some coverage cushion. Sustained coverage supports dividend durability and gives management greater flexibility to reinvest capital while navigating changes in rates and mortgage spreads.
Read all positive factors
Annaly Capital (NLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$13.79B
Dividend Yield16.1%
Average Volume (3M)13.03M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.5
Beta (1Y)0.64
Revenue Growth-3.52%
EPS Growth-33.98%
CountryUS
Employees212
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.01
Shares Outstanding753,714,400
10 Day Avg. Volume12,281,000
30 Day Avg. Volume13,026,192
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)0.89
Price to Sales (P/S)2.14
P/FCF Ratio-64.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap10.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue19.11
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit19.25
Enterprise Value/Ebitda17.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.94Price Target Upside-9.36% Downside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)3.1
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.54B
Annaly Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) operates as a multifaceted financial firm, specializing in managing capital across various sectors. Its core business encompasses mortgage-related investments and lending to middle-market corporations. NLY str...
How the Company Makes Money
Annaly primarily makes money through net interest income generated from its investment portfolio. In its core Agency strategy, the company buys Agency mortgage-backed securities (which carry credit support from U.S. government-sponsored entities) ...
Annaly Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 20, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 10, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly constructive despite a difficult third quarter for fixed income markets. Management reported a negative 7.6% economic return and an 11.4% decline in book value per share, but earnings remained above the dividend, liquidity and financing access remained substantial, credit performance was strong, and management identified attractive prospective returns across Agency, residential credit, and MSR. The company also expressed confidence in its conservative positioning, dividend coverage, and ability to deploy capital as volatility moderates.Positive Updates
Earnings Exceeded Dividend
Earnings available for distribution increased by $0.01 to $0.80 per share, exceeding the quarterly dividend of $0.75 per share for the quarter.
Negative Updates
Negative Quarterly Economic Return
The portfolio generated a negative 7.6% economic return for the quarter, including the $0.75 per-share quarterly dividend.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Earnings Exceeded Dividend
Earnings available for distribution increased by $0.01 to $0.80 per share, exceeding the quarterly dividend of $0.75 per share for the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Annaly expects to outearn its $0.75 quarterly dividend in Q4, with the current portfolio delivering the dividend, while 2027 will depend on how it evolves; capital allocation is residential credit first, close second Agency, and then not far behind is MSR, with room to grow and maintain a 20% capital allocation to the sector. Agency new money returns are in the mid to high teens, residential credit returns are 13%-16%, residential loans can earn mid-teens returns, and certain BB non-QM bonds could provide 16%, 17%; the company expects non-QM origination this year to be $150 billion to $175 billion, total mortgage origination of $1.9 trillion to $2 trillion, and non-QM to remain 8%-9% of originations. Annaly expects 2026 to be a post GFC record in transaction volume, continues to see ample liquidity and balance sheet capacity to put capital to work, and believes spreads and volatility provide an opportunity to increase leverage tactically, although current leverage generates the returns needed. If mortgage rates stay at 7.375% to 7.5% for an extended period of time, housing can go negative by a couple points nationally, or down 2%-3%, 3%-4%.Annaly Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.28B | 6.70B | 6.36B | 5.61B | 4.15B | 751.40M |
| Gross Profit | 7.23B | 6.69B | 6.29B | 5.56B | 4.11B | 702.13M |
| EBITDA | 8.18B | 6.90B | 5.65B | 2.27B | 3.10B | 2.67B |
| Net Income | 2.95B | 2.03B | 1.00B | -1.64B | 1.73B | 2.39B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 143.74B | 135.61B | 103.56B | 93.23B | 81.85B | 76.76B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.91B | 2.04B | 2.35B | 4.49B | 152.55M | 119.58M |
| Total Debt | 124.94B | 111.86B | 89.61B | 77.54B | 68.31B | 61.88B |
| Total Liabilities | 126.76B | 119.45B | 90.86B | 81.88B | 70.48B | 63.57B |
| Stockholders Equity | 16.93B | 16.09B | 12.61B | 11.26B | 11.27B | 13.17B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -314.44M | -222.16M | 2.45B | 1.97B | 4.36B | 2.54B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 886.45M | 692.91M | 3.31B | 2.37B | 5.37B | 3.08B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -32.33B | -27.36B | -14.98B | -8.42B | -14.53B | 4.90B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 32.30B | 27.22B | 11.75B | 5.88B | 9.39B | -7.88B |
Annaly Capital Technical Analysis
Negative
23.10
Price Trends
20.37
Negative
20.88
Negative
20.72
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.62
Negative
40.10
Neutral
50.83
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NLY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 23.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.50, above the 50-day MA of 20.37, and above the 200-day MA of 20.72, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.62 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NLY.
Annaly Capital Risk Analysis
Annaly Capital disclosed 81 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Annaly Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Annaly Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
60 Neutral | $4.82B | 14.02 | 5.55% | 11.70% | 11.86% | -53.30% | |
59 Neutral | $10.43B | 125.43 | 0.48% | 16.40% | 151.78% | -96.75% | |
58 Neutral | $2.72B | 50.23 | -1.74% | 18.46% | 376.19% | -85.68% | |
56 Neutral | $4.51B | 18.07 | 3.40% | 15.83% | 10.66% | -45.26% | |
55 Neutral | $13.79B | 12.51 | 6.97% | 16.10% | -3.52% | -33.98% | |
48 Neutral | $1.72B | 127.50 | 0.45% | 18.43% | -3.93% | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
NLY
Annaly Capital
18.34
0.09
0.48%
AGNC
AGNC Investment
8.89
0.08
0.94%
DX
Dynex Capital
11.05
-0.26
-2.26%
BXMT
Blackstone Mortgage
10.58
-5.81
-35.45%
RITM
Rithm Capital
8.68
-1.07
-11.01%
STWD
Starwood Property
12.58
-3.93
-23.81%
Annaly Capital Corporate Events
DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Annaly Capital Posts Quarterly Loss Amid Book Value Decline
Negative
Oct 20, 2026
Annaly Capital Management on October 20, 2026 posted its financial supplement for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, highlighting a GAAP net loss to common shareholders of $1.04 billion, or $1.36 per share, versus a profit in the prior quarter....
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Annaly Capital Posts Solid Earnings and Portfolio Growth
Positive
Oct 20, 2026
In its October 20, 2026 third-quarter investor presentation, Annaly reported earnings available for distribution of $0.80 per average common share, exceeding its declared quarterly dividend of $0.75, with book value per share at $17.86 and an econ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividends
Annaly Capital to Redeem Series I Preferred Shares
Positive
Aug 19, 2026
On August 19, 2026, Annaly Capital Management, Inc. announced that it will redeem all 17,700,000 outstanding shares of its 6.750% Series I Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock. The company set a cash redemption price of $25...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Annaly Capital Reports Strong Quarterly Profitability Rebound
Positive
Jul 21, 2026
On July 21, 2026, Annaly Capital posted its financial supplement for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, reporting a strong rebound in profitability and book value. GAAP net income per average common share rose to $1.06 from $0.33 in the prior quarte...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Annaly Capital Raises Dividend on Strong Q2 Earnings
Positive
Jul 21, 2026
In its second-quarter 2026 investor presentation dated July 21, 2026, Annaly reported earnings available for distribution of $0.79 per average common share, again exceeding its dividend and underscoring the durability of its housing finance earnin...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.