Arbor Realty (ABR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.32B
• Dividend Yield: 12.82%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.16M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.64
• Revenue Growth: -17.43%
• EPS Growth: -37.71%
• Country: US
• Employees: 659
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 192,301,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,036,058
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,157,724
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 5.49
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 16.54
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 18.06
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.27
• 1Y Price Target: $11.88
• Price Target Upside: 4.30% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $13.00 ▲(14.14% Upside)

Arbor Realty's strong valuation and earnings call performance are offset by technical analysis concerns and declining revenue. The company's strategic initiatives and high dividend yield are significant positives, but challenges in the interest rate environment and REO assets pose risks.

Positive Factors

Strong Profit Margins

High profit margins indicate effective cost management and strong profitability, providing a buffer against revenue fluctuations and enhancing long-term financial stability.

Capital Market Transactions

Successful capital market transactions enhance liquidity and financial flexibility, supporting growth initiatives and strengthening the company's market position.

Agency Business Growth

Strong performance in agency loan originations reflects robust demand and effective market penetration, contributing to sustained revenue growth and competitive advantage.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue

A significant revenue decline indicates potential challenges in maintaining market share or pricing power, which could impact long-term growth and profitability.

REO Asset Challenges

High levels of REO assets suggest operational inefficiencies and potential losses, which could strain resources and impact financial performance over time.

Interest Rate Environment

Elevated interest rates can dampen loan origination volumes and profitability, posing a structural challenge to growth in a rate-sensitive industry like real estate finance.

Arbor Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Arbor Realty (ABR) is a leading real estate investment trust (REIT) that specializes in multifamily and commercial real estate financing. The company operates primarily in the sectors of mortgage banking and property management, providing a range of financial products including bridge loans, permanent loans, and structured financing solutions. Arbor Realty focuses on enhancing the value of its real estate assets through strategic investments and partnerships, catering to a diverse clientele that includes property owners, developers, and investors.

How the Company Makes Money

Arbor Realty generates revenue through various channels, primarily by originating, underwriting, and servicing loans secured by real estate. Key revenue streams include interest income from loans, fees from loan origination, and servicing fees from managing loan portfolios. Additionally, the company earns income from its investments in real estate and related assets. Significant partnerships with institutional investors and financial institutions further bolster its funding capabilities, allowing Arbor Realty to expand its lending operations and optimize returns on its real estate investments.

Arbor Realty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Arbor Realty's financial performance is solid with high profitability and efficient cash generation. However, declining revenue and free cash flow are concerns, despite strong margins and manageable debt levels.

Income Statement

Arbor Realty's income statement shows a robust TTM gross profit margin of 81.23% and a net profit margin of 40.88%, indicating effective cost management and profitability. The TTM EBIT margin is also strong at 57.55%. However, there is a noticeable decline in revenue from $719 million in 2023 to $497.65 million in the TTM period, indicating a revenue contraction of 30.8%, which is a concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a healthy TTM equity ratio of 21.93%, suggesting a solid capital structure, but the debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.097, indicating a manageable level of debt. Return on equity (ROE) for TTM is a strong 6.84%, reflecting good returns for shareholders. However, a decrease in stockholders' equity from $3.12 billion in 2023 to $2.97 billion in the TTM period is noteworthy.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.68 for TTM, highlighting efficient cash generation relative to profits. Free cash flow remains robust at $342.23 million, though there is a decline in free cash flow compared to the previous period, which needs attention. The cash flow from financing activities indicates high outflows, suggesting significant debt repayments or dividends.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	771.99M	627.52M	719.01M	654.07M	661.48M	439.38M
Gross Profit	707.24M	565.19M	661.85M	597.95M	615.18M	397.13M
EBITDA	1.04B	1.18B	1.40B	997.54M	701.93M	462.63M
Net Income	213.76M	264.64M	371.43M	325.78M	339.30M	170.95M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.56B	13.49B	15.74B	17.04B	15.07B	7.66B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	346.69M	503.80M	935.52M	14.79M	404.58M	339.53M
Total Debt	10.13B	10.04B	9.40B	13.50B	12.06B	5.82B
Total Liabilities	10.47B	10.34B	12.48B	13.97B	12.52B	6.18B
Stockholders Equity	2.97B	3.02B	3.12B	2.94B	2.42B	1.34B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	342.23M	461.52M	235.86M	1.10B	216.85M	55.16M
Operating Cash Flow	342.23M	461.52M	235.86M	1.10B	216.85M	55.16M
Investing Cash Flow	-88.35M	1.15B	1.88B	-2.32B	-6.75B	-1.16B
Financing Cash Flow	-862.90M	-2.49B	-1.83B	1.57B	6.89B	1.13B

Arbor Realty Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 11.39
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ABR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.39 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.95, below the 50-day MA of 11.77, and above the 200-day MA of 11.26, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.34 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ABR.

Arbor Realty Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ABR	74 Outperform	$2.32B	13.69	7.09%	12.82%	-17.43%	-37.71%
LADR	71 Outperform	$1.35B	15.08	5.83%	8.81%	-13.74%	-11.53%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
EFC	65 Neutral	$1.36B	11.23	8.81%	11.62%	20.32%	1.58%
DX	60 Neutral	$1.70B	16.69	4.93%	14.79%	35.01%	1115.85%
ARI	52 Neutral	$1.35B	―	-0.35%	10.27%	-26.29%	-342.06%
ARR	48 Neutral	$1.79B	8.01	-2.04%	18.41%	157.34%	91.67%

Arbor Realty Corporate Events

Arbor Realty Closes $1.05 Billion Loan Securitization

On August 12, 2025, Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. announced the closing of a $1.05 billion commercial real estate mortgage loan securitization. The securitization involved issuing approximately $933 million of investment grade-rated notes and retaining subordinate interests of around $117 million. The proceeds are intended to repay borrowings, cover transaction expenses, and fund future loans and investments. This move is expected to strengthen Arbor’s financial position by allowing reinvestment in qualifying assets over a two-and-a-half-year period, potentially enhancing its market presence and operational flexibility.

Arbor Realty Completes $500M Senior Notes Issuance

On July 9, 2025, Arbor Realty SR, Inc., a subsidiary of Arbor Realty Trust, Inc., completed the issuance and sale of $500 million of 7.875% Senior Notes due 2030. The proceeds are intended to refinance existing debt and for general corporate purposes, with the Notes being senior, unsecured obligations guaranteed by the Parent. This strategic financial move aims to strengthen Arbor Realty’s financial position by managing existing debt obligations and providing flexibility for future corporate activities.

Arbor Realty Announces $500M Senior Notes Offering

On July 2, 2025, Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. announced that its subsidiary, Arbor Realty SR, Inc., has priced a $500 million offering of 7.875% Senior Notes due 2030 in a private placement to qualified institutional buyers and non-U.S. persons. The proceeds from this offering are intended to refinance Arbor’s outstanding 7.50% Convertible Notes due 2025 and for general corporate purposes, potentially impacting the company’s financial strategy and market positioning.